I’ve actually seen a video of him where he is secretly being filmed and doing just that. Ruffing his hair up before an interview
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I’ve actually seen a video of him where he is secretly being filmed and doing just that. Ruffing his hair up before an interview
Mine are from the Old Western Villas at Dalymount park - not a million miles away.
Howth is nice on a sunny day - but hey we'll never get to see it again!!!
That is no one knows, how effective any of the vaccines are against the South African variant, or the brazil variant. There is also still some questions about the Kent variant. The uncertainty seems to be even higher when it comes to how the Oxford Vaccine will protect against the variants, which is the vaccine the UK has ordered the most doses of so the 1 likely to be received by most people. Plus these are just the current variants.
No one has any idea what gonna happen when we start opening up. Anyone saying otherwise is just lying.
which is hilarious as a lot of the people who will most use pubs will be the last to get the vaccine
. Plus a bit discriminative saying if you haven't be allowed the vaccine yet you aren't allowed to do anything.Well thats what the vaccine roll out has been based on, there is also data from Israel to work from.
Hopefully plenty more follow suit
The vaccine rollout is based on whose vulnerable. Isreal is mainly using Pfizer, a lot of people in the UK are going to get the oxford one. the isreal data has really shown any meaningful data against the South African or Brazilian variants yet. So there are so many variables. Saying anything is data lead at this stage is just nonsense.
The number of things we don't know massively out weighs the things we do know.
This plan or "road map" is just the government saying we need to say something so here's what we hope might happen. We live in a world where people are afraid to say "We don't know" and it just leads to more F'up's!
We are likely going to need modified booster shots every year for many years to come, so its a bit futile being obsessed with variants.
well it's not cos we currently don't know if we have a vaccine that works against the variants, we don't know how long it would take to get one, we don't know if we could create a vaccine that would instance cover both variants. We don't know if by next winter more variants will be around.
So we open up one of the variants spreads, and we saw how quickly the kent one spread, it turns out one of the vaccines or all of them aren't effective against it. then we have to lockdown again.
It just pointless saying we know what going to happen cos we don't! so acting like we do is ridiculously stupid !
The Imperial College vaccine are already working on different variants and boosters, they stopped trials on the original dominate variant when others started appearing, and their self amplifying RNA technology allows them to switch tact very quickly, you should read it white paper, its the most interesting one so far as it can be stored in a normal fridge while other RNA ones cant
Why is nobody talking about the news of all social contact restrictions being removed by 21 June? Have I missed the thread somewhere else?
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Full speed ahead for the U.K. it seems
The only statistics that’ll start to matter is hospitalisations. And percentage of cases that need it. In addition how many are new variants. That will be an indictor of us going back to some version if normality.
I think the roadmap is decently thought out and workable if we think of one-dose vaccine efficacy and transmission prevention as per the Scottish data today for Pfizer and AZ vaccines. Whether they’ll be brave enough to put brakes on things should the new variants escape the current antibody protections in the elderly and vulnerable will be interesting.
Sequentially seems logical and also 5 week intervals between phases is good to assess data and delay things if needed or plan ahead before lifting futher restrictions or to stipulate caveats.
there’s a quietly optimistic but decent (slightly jargon-y) article here by the way on what to expect with regards to vaccinations and their fight against the new variants
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n05/rupert-beale/eeek
I think the roadmap is decently thought out and workable if we think of one-dose vaccine efficacy and transmission prevention as per the Scottish data today for Pfizer and AZ vaccines. Whether they’ll be brave enough to put brakes on things should the new variants escape the current antibody protections in the elderly and vulnerable will be interesting.
Sequentially seems logical and also 5 week intervals between phases is good to assess data and delay things if needed or plan ahead before lifting futher restrictions or to stipulate caveats.
there’s a quietly optimistic but decent (slightly jargon-y) article here by the way on what to expect with regards to vaccinations and their fight against the new variants
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n05/rupert-beale/eeek
This reminds me of the post-match threads. When there's bad news, you get hundreds of posts. When it's good, hardly anything.
Although the headline is a bit preemptive, as several conditions need to be met to even get there, people should still be required to wear masks in enclosed indoor public spaces, imo
Absolutely superb news
Absolutely.
The real challenge (& its my industry) is how to accomplish this in restaurants, bars, pubs, clubs, etc. There will always be some spread through these indoor venues like these, there’s just no way around that. Will it become accepted that a certain number of covid cases at any time is acceptable to everyone & there’s just a risk that will be understood to occur at places like these? The food & beverage industry risks losing as much as an industry possibly could with continued lockdowns (& has suffered massively), but to have a semblance of an industry circa 2019, risks have to be assumed. Just where will an accepted rolling number of cases / deaths end up being is the question.
Indeed. It's great news but we've been gaslit the entire pandemic and there's more than a bit of "I'll believe it when I see it" to all this from me. Things can still go tits up.
However, I'm very optimistic about the summer at least. Looking forward to seeing my family again.
It's annoying watching this press conference. Journalists basically calling Johnson a pussy because he's not going gung ho and opening everything back up tomorrow. But when they could have legitimately got tore into him for his handling of the pandemic, they were the pussies, offering tuts and gentle shakes of the head instead of the wrath of journalistic independence and integrity.
It’s an approach that’s never going to get us back to the top like we were under Churchill, Boris relying on scientific moments of brilliance to make up for a lack of strategy with any patterns of competence.
(Just a poor attempt to continue your funny observation, this feels like the most significantly positive day since the pandemic began)
Is it fair to say that the UK government has done a good job of the vaccine roll out?
The only issue with the proposed easing I have is the big bang approach to sending kids back to school. Pretty good news today all in all, fingers crossed things go as planned.
The only issue with the proposed easing I have is the big bang approach to sending kids back to school. Pretty good news today all in all, fingers crossed things go as planned.
Is it? Not seeing that in the data.
Probably more emotional from me than scientific. But I remember playing weeks/months of 5 a side and not seeing numbers rise to my surprise, praying that pubs didn't reopen. Once they did the numbers started changing.
Probably the only thing they have done half well. A partially trained marmoset would have made a less shit job of literally everything else. Even my cat, who would have done nothing but lick herself, would have been an improvement on BoJo and his evil clown collective.
i remember the pubs serving food reopened last summer June 29th and it wasn’t till the schools went back in September that shit hit the fan.
I think some people are relatively happy in the lockdown to be honest. I stopped paying attention to the news etc cos it was just constantly miserable and then flicked on recently and when the cases were lower the story was buried in other articles.
I'm sure some people are worn out etc by all this and are just down in general but I'm also pretty sure some people haven't minded the lockdown stuff and would of been happy for it to continue.
I wish something opened earlier than is planned but at least there's an end now. Can't wait to go back to the gym and pubs and get haircut as well!
The excess death stats are interesting.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
They certainly seem to suggest that the major error was Boris's initial response but since then the management hasn't been too bad compared to other large Euro nations.
It also suggests that there been a fair amount of cooking of the books in countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy whilst the shocking numbers from the UK and Belgium appear to be accurately reported.
The deaths from Covid reported in Russia at 56k whilst excess deaths stand at 368k are shocking but predicatable.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
They certainly seem to suggest that the major error was Boris's initial response but since then the management hasn't been too bad compared to other large Euro nations.
It also suggests that there been a fair amount of cooking of the books in countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy whilst the shocking numbers from the UK and Belgium appear to be accurately reported.
The deaths from Covid reported in Russia at 56k whilst excess deaths stand at 368k are shocking but predicatable.
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They've done a decent job with a healthy slice of luck.
The entire strategy has been a total mess with them rolling the dice at every turn. They did exactly the same thing with the vaccine, taking risks no other country has been prepared to take. So far, it looks like they got lucky with that and rolled a 6.
The probability of them rolling another 6 with the reopening plan is quite low.
You're being somewhat hyperbolic here. The UK scientists backed the AZ vaccine to behave like pretty much every vaccine of it's type ever has and completely unsurprisingly - it did. It was more akin to rolling 6 with a loaded dice. The other countries you talk about didn't have the vaccines available for a mass roll out, if they did then their decision might have been the same.
It wasn't only the AZ vaccine they took the risks on, and to date none of those other countries have changed course to follow suit.
I get the need to take risks, but i'm not a fan of my family being part of what's essentially an extended clinical trial.
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I don’t know where your “cooking the books” accusation comes from. None of the countries you mention have a much bigger gap between excess deaths and confirmed covid deaths than we see in the UK graph (or, indeed, most other countries). Although Belgium does seem an outlier in terms of having an almost exact match.
The country that stands out as most definitely cooking the books is, unsurprisingly, Russia.
It’s fascinating data though.
In Northern Europe they’ve been barely affected (with Sweden an obvious outlier).
Western Europe had two massive waves but the further east you go the smaller the first wave, with the vast majority of deaths in the second wave.
It really brings it home how geography played such a big part in how each country experienced the pandemic.
I was looking at the table
UK: Covid deaths - 113k - excess deaths 106k
Belgium: Covid deaths - 21k - excess deaths 20k
Italy: Covid deaths - 54k - excess deaths 93k
Spain: Covid deaths - 58k - excess deaths 75k
Portugal: Covid deaths - 10k - excess deaths 18k
The UK scientists believed that the Pfizer data did show that an extended dose would give high efficacy and it looks like they were right. I believe Denmark have extended the time to second dose too. I hear what you're saying but I've heard the UK scientists talking about this a lot on the radio and TV and was convinced by them. They are second to none and appeared to be absolutely certain.
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Mainly because no-one trusts a word this bumbling feck gullet says, remember the Christmas debacle?
The table on this page. Italy's is only up to the end of November though so it could have been updated by now eslewhere, although the excess deaths were at 93k in November.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Really think this is a bit of a stupid statement to make. The government were so confident that Christmas would be going ahead without any restrictions etc. then as we opened up after the November restrictions, numbers went out of control and they had to backtrack. I feel it could be a similar situation here.
Apart from vulnerable being vaccinated, hospitalisation being low etc. is no one a little bit concerned about their long term health? Been hearing plenty of stories of people who haven't fully recovered 3-4 months on and no telling if after 5-10 year this can affect the lungs in terms of cancers, or other complications.
I understand our need to open up a bit, get our social lives back on track etc. But jumping in head first and removing all social distancing, letting bars/restaurants/clubs get jam packed again suddenly is asking for some bad news?
I'd rather actually base this off data, have a few months of hard lockdown, gradually open things up and see if the situation stays improved, and then be able to get out of this for good, rather than having false hope and ending up in another lockdown after summer.
Lots of automobile accidents bro
Geography and how interconnected the Western and Southern European nations are, both for business and leisure.
If they're confident of every adult having being offered a vaccine by July, I don't see anything inherently wrong with late June being a date to relax social restrictions. 12 weeks back from June 21st is the end of March, by which case they expect all over 40's to have had the first jab, and by 21st of June I imagine a second jab.
Was there any mention of international travel?
17th of May at the earliest