SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Yes, I can't argue with that but I think this country-wide lockdown isn't something many European countries would impose.

I don't think they had any other choice.

I don't see how this won't be an option for the entire world. I can't see any other way of controlling this virus.
 
In Bulgaria currently and we've been quite lucky in a sense, as there has been an epidemic of the "normal" flu for the past couple of weeks and schools have been closed since. I guess that's limited the spread of covid somewhat.

However, schools are reopening next week and the official stance of the administration is that kids should go to school and also people should work as normal until they get a positive probe (even in case they've been tested, they should go to work until the results are our). The argument is that an economic collapse is the biggest threat and also "this is what they're doing all around the world".

There doesn't seem to be much of an opposition to that. Generally the attitude is quite nonchalant.
 
Presumably if Italian medics are using triage then they are having to tell concerned relatives that they can't treat their loved ones. Imagine that happening in the US where people have guns. Do you think they will just accept the decision of the doctors?
 


They probably realized the world is already descending into chaos and panic so nows the right time.
 
A friend of mine is a surgeon who does a list in a private hospital. One of the theatre nurses (Italian but not been home this year) was given a week's notice by his landlady because she "doesn't want a health worker bringing the virus out of hospital". He has a young family. I've also heard about a nurse in another hospital known to have a number of cases being asked to leave their local Centra (grocery shop) and the boyfriend of a physio at the same hospital being refused entry to his office. This is going to be a real stress test for our society.
 
I think this announcement has a lot to do with the reports showing USA is poorly prepared to deal with this.
 
“82,000 People are sick with Coronavirus at the moment,
of which 77,000 are in China.
This means that if you are not in or haven't recently visited China, this should eliminate 94% of your concern.

If you do contract Coronavirus, this still is not a cause for panic because:
81% of the Cases are MILD
14% of the Cases are MODERATE
Only 5% of the Cases are CRITICAL

Which means that even if you do get the virus, you are most likely to recover from it.

Some have said, “but this is worse than SARS!”. SARS had a fatality rate of 10% while COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 2%

Moreover, looking at the ages of those who are dying of this virus, the death rate for the people UNDER 50 years of age is only 0.2%

This means that:
if you are under 50 years of age and don't live in China - you are more likely to win the lottery (which has a 1 in 45,000,000 chance)

Let’s take one of the worst days so far, the 10th of February, when 108 people in CHINA died of Coronavirus.

On the same day:
26,283 people died of Cancer
24,641 people died of Heart Disease
4,300 people died of Diabetes
Suicide took 28 times more lives than the virus did.

Mosquitoes kill 2,740 people every day, HUMANS kill 1,300 fellow humans every day, and Snakes kill 137 people every day. (Sharks kill 2 people a year)

That is all.

Thank you Ken KJ Carter for putting it so educationally clear.

STOP FREAKING OUT!!!!”

Found this rather interesting
That load of shite was doing the rounds on Facebook being promoted by a travel agency group. Say no more
 
To be honest, the US should probably be the most prepared country in the world since they have been anticipating world war III since the 50s. Apparently they have the largest number of ICU beds per capita in the world etc... but their problems lie elsewhere.
 
This really. Never mind my mum or Dad who nearly died in hosiptal last year but my partner has Type 1 diabetes and I'm shit scared for her and worried that she isn't taking it seriously. Her attitude is very much "what will be will be" and it's pointless me working from home when she can't and both the kids are still at school.

Not to play down your fears or anything but the headline fatality rates for people with comorbidities doesn't control for age. Here's a study that, although in no way definitive, does attempt to control for age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027664v1.full.pdf

63e7616ce72bb0925b97bf355dc941ba26595949.jpeg


After adjusting for age and smoking status, patients with COPD (HR 2.681, 95%CI 1.424-5.048), diabetes (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.03-2.45), hypertension (HR 1.58, 95%CI 1.07-2.32) and malignancy (HR 3.50, 95%CI 1.60-7.64) were more likely to reach to the composite endpoints [meaning both requiring critical care and dying] than those without. As compared with patients without comorbidity, the HR (95%CI) was 1.79 (95%CI 1.16-2.77) among patients with at least one comorbidity and 2.59 (95%CI 1.61-4.17) among patients with two or more comorbidities.

Explanation of HR:
In survival analysis, the hazard ratio ( HR ) is the ratio of the hazard rates corresponding to the conditions described by two levels of an explanatory variable. For example, in a drug study, the treated population may die at twice the rate per unit time as the control population. The hazard ratio would be 2, indicating higher hazard of death from the treatment. Or in another study, men receiving the same treatment may suffer a certain complication ten times more frequently per unit time than women, giving a hazard ratio of 10.

Hazard ratios differ from relative risks (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs) in that RRs and ORs are cumulative over an entire study, using a defined endpoint, while HRs represent instantaneous risk over the study time period, or some subset thereof. Hazard ratios suffer somewhat less from selection bias with respect to the endpoints chosen and can indicate risks that happen before the endpoint.

So at least according to this study, the estimated death rate for someone with diabetes would likely lie somewhere between 103% and 245% of the average for a healthy person of their age.
 
At this point, I’d hold more credibility to The Who (band) giving me Covid19 info than the World Health Organisation.
 
A friend of mine is a surgeon who does a list in a private hospital. One of the theatre nurses (Italian but not been home this year) was given a week's notice by his landlady because she "doesn't want a health worker bringing the virus out of hospital". He has a young family. I've also heard about a nurse in another hospital known to have a number of cases being asked to leave their local Centra (grocery shop) and the boyfriend of a physio at the same hospital being refused entry to his office. This is going to be a real stress test for our society.

Jesus Chirst! Can she even do that? When I was renting, my landlord couldn't break our contract unless he himself had nowhere to go.
 
Presumably if Italian medics are using triage then they are having to tell concerned relatives that they can't treat their loved ones. Imagine that happening in the US where people have guns. Do you think they will just accept the decision of the doctors?

I don’t think they should be telling relatives they’ve decided not to treat. They have to make those decisions and it’s going to be hard enough on them already. If a doctor told me they weren’t going to treat one of my parents I’d lose my fecking mind, and that’s with me actually accepting the logic behind it. How many assaults and how much serious abuse is going to come out of this? Better to not tell relatives and just do what needs to be done.
 
This outbreak has really separated the people who understand the concept exponential growth and those that don't. Whenever I see people looking at current numbers and odds I think, 'yeah, so what? it's going to grow exponentially without intervention'.
It’s also separated the twats from the normal people who have empathy.
 
I read a post on reddit earlier which criticised the earlier approach about fighting the virus head on. Wasn't there a "Milan welcomes you" quote? Read on here as well from @11101 that Italy didn't take it seriously enough when it started.

It definitely wasn't taken seriously enough at first, but that has all changed now. Streets are totally empty. Everything closes at 6pm (and soon will be closed all day). Walking around after that and it feels like 3am.

I do firmly believe it has little to do with how well prepared a country's health system is though, at least to begin with. What matters is how quickly you can verify cases and how quickly you can close things down in response, and that's all political/societal. That's just my opinion from following things and being in the middle of it in Lombardy. Italy started slowly but is now close to China levels of shutdown.

The level of healthcare preparation comes up later, but Lombardy has one of the most advanced public healthcare systems in the world (don't be distracted by national rankings, there is a huge difference between North and South Italy) and has been quickly overwhelmed, despite having more ICU beds than any of the major European countries bar Germany.
 
Jesus Chirst! Can she even do that? When I was renting, my landlord couldn't break our contract unless he himself had nowhere to go.

No she can't. The nurse can report her to the PRTB. Still, though, can you imagine having to deal with that shit when you're already having to deal with the stress of your job putting you in harms way every day?!
 
Woke up with a cold this morning. Seen a video on sky news where a guy in china said he got a cold first and then the flu and then pnuemonia.

Hopefully i dont have it and it is just a cold. I am young but an ex smoker.
 
China are really doing an excellent job after an initial shitshow.

 
Presumably if Italian medics are using triage then they are having to tell concerned relatives that they can't treat their loved ones. Imagine that happening in the US where people have guns. Do you think they will just accept the decision of the doctors?
Wut? Guns arent allowed in most public facilities and things like hospitals.

Not to mention other than the notion being somewhat ridiculous - malpractice lawsuits are so egregious here any doc would think twice and thrice about denying treatment.
 
Not to play down your fears or anything but the headline fatality rates for people with comorbidities doesn't control for age. Here's a study that, although in no way definitive, does attempt to control for age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027664v1.full.pdf

63e7616ce72bb0925b97bf355dc941ba26595949.jpeg




Explanation of HR:


So at least according to this study, the estimated death rate for someone with diabetes would likely lie somewhere between 103% and 245% of the average for a healthy person of their age.

Cheers.
 
Very interesting video on youtube by Joe Rogan with this expert on infectious diseases from America. It is worth checking out.

One point he says is that he suspects that even if you shut down a region or even country like Chinese did, the virus will still return when you open up the doors again so to speak. As in once China lifts the shutdown, it will return to China again.
 
An update from my colleague regarding the situation in Shanghai. Still in lockdown. No social activities allowed. People going to work in rotations and WFH where possible.
 
Wut? Guns arent allowed in most public facilities and things like hospitals.

Maybe not, but if they’re informing people they’re going to let their relatives likely die, that won’t stop a lot of people going home and returning armed.
 
I have a feeling that many Americans are going to learn that they don't actually have the best healthcare in the world. This could actually be the thing that convinces them that a single-payer system is the way to go.
Similar things have been said about gun control and mass shootings but I sure hope you are right.
 
8% mortality is absolutely frightening. Especially if you consider that apparently it's not impossible to contract this multiple times (there were cases of people becoming sick twice).

I could be wrong here so feel free to jump anyone who knows, but there’s a lot of skepticism on whether you can contact it twice. There are cases of this, but many professionals seem to think that it was a matter of the virus laying dormant in the body and lingering as opposed to going completely, then flaring up again.

So basically a continuation of the original infection. Also, not enough time has elapsed for reinfection to take place. Ultimately, as with most things regarding this subject, nobody knows 100%. But there seems to be a feeling that once you are infected and recover, there is an immunity for sometime.
 
No she can't. The nurse can report her to the PRTB. Still, though, can you imagine having to deal with that shit when you're already having to deal with the stress of your job putting you in harms way every day?!

That's very true. I really dont get people like that. You'd think civilians would be more understanding and show compassion to those who care for the rest of the population.
 
I could be wrong here so feel free to jump anyone who knows, but there’s a lot of skepticism on whether you can contact it twice. There are cases of this, but many professionals seem to think that it was a matter of the virus laying dormant in the body and lingering as opposed to going completely, then flaring up again.

So basically a continuation of the original infection. Also, not enough time has elapsed for reinfection to take place. Ultimately, as with most things regarding this subject, nobody knows 100%. But there seems to be a feeling that once you are infected and recover, there is an immunity for sometime.
Pretty sure that generally its possible if the virus mutates pretty much (my in law and brother are both doctors so going off of them here). We can't be sure how many times the virus has mutated already though, and if it will keep changing or what else. But theoretically it's definitely possible to get reinfected.
 
Very interesting video on youtube by Joe Rogan with this expert on infectious diseases from America. It is worth checking out.

One point he says is that he suspects that even if you shut down a region or even country like Chinese did, the virus will still return when you open up the doors again so to speak. As in once China lifts the shutdown, it will return to China again.

Really not that great a point when its everywhere else in the world that's just obvious.