SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)



@finneh this is the direct result of "treating people like adults" over the Christmas period, removing the restrictions but plainly communicating the risks. Is it possible, based on this evidence, that individual adults aren't able to make appropriate risk calculations in this scenario, and therefore expose the health system to more risk than could be justified? Is it right that individuals can choose to push medical staff to the brink - at a time when medical staff burnout was already a serious problem pre-pandemic - simply because they choose not to accept the risks that they're exposing themselves to? I can't imagine people think the amount of pressure medical staff are being put under is reasonable, especially given so many of the infections are entirely avoidable.
 
The only thing I’m clinging to is the possibility that most of the spread was in the run-up to Christmas. Large groups of people crammed into shops, pubs, restaurants, offices and schools. At Christmas (and in the days following) you will have had a lot of intra-household spread but not the same opportunity for super-spreaders to infect multiple households at a time.

The infections seeded in the week before Christmas are all decompensating now but hopefully that surge is starting to wind down. It’s two weeks to the day after Christmas Day today, so hopefully we’ll see the pressure on the health service ease off from next week on.

I know that doesn’t really fit with the timing of the cases but I think/hope we can’t really trust the dates of the cases reported during/straight after Christmas week for various different reasons.

Just hoping its still a superspreader led event for the pandemic as before and that the more infective variant isn’t too different to that in terms of spread.

ONS says 60% of cases are new variant although massive regional variation, i think wales for example has a relative lower burden of new variant case percentage. On christmas day 44% of population formed festive bubble, hopefully intrahouseheld transmission was minimal then.
 
Damn, horrible number of cases and deaths these days for you guys in the UK :( :( I hope it gets better soon. Seems most of Europe has trouble after Christmas, but you guys also having this new extra infectious fecking strand of course does not help at all. I am so lucky as to live in a small town almost hidden from civilization in Norway but also here it is not safe now. I can not imagine how it must be to live in a large city right now. Be safe all, wish you the best.
 
Ignoring the massive rise in new cases associated with the new variant, the fact is that the vast increase in deaths is not the result of that new variant, it is totally the result of people allowing it to infect others. And from what I see, this is not a strong enough lockdown. At very best, it might level off the rise.
 
Ignoring the massive rise in new cases associated with the new variant, the fact is that the vast increase in deaths is not the result of that new variant, it is totally the result of people allowing it to infect others. And from what I see, this is not a strong enough lockdown. At very best, it might level off the rise.
It doesn’t work that way anyway does it? It’s just more transmissible not more deadly.
 
The police don’t really do enough of it really. For obvious reasons of course.
Dispersing of gatherings and quite blatant flouting of the rules is one thing (especially if said rule break carries a high risk of an outbreak), cornering two women who are excersising in open air and not even allowing them to drink a cup of tea is North Korea esque.

Above everything else it's police wasting their time when they could be looking for incidents that would actually carry outbreak risks or other everyday crimes that go in.
 
Dispersing of gatherings and quite blatant flouting of the rules is one thing (especially if said rule break carries a high risk of an outbreak), cornering two women who are excersising in open air and not even allowing them to drink a cup of tea is North Korea esque.

Above everything else it's police wasting their time when they could be looking for incidents that would actually carry outbreak risks or other everyday crimes that go in.

The point I was making is that they need to be tougher in general so people don’t continue taking the piss.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55560814

Utterly terrifying how something like this is normalised these days.
I wouldn't say it was "terrifying". Plenty of stuff to be genuinely scared of in this thread, but what's going to happen with these heavy-handed police measures is they'll get a drubbing in the Mail and the Telegraph and inevitably apologise and dial it back down to the zero enforcement that the rest of the country seems to be doing.
 
Just had a video call with a friend my age in London who has deteriorated all week and may not survive tonight. He doesn't even have the breath to whisper.

Really sorry to hear that. Heard the exact same story from another guy I know earlier today here in Dublin.
 
@finneh this is the direct result of "treating people like adults" over the Christmas period, removing the restrictions but plainly communicating the risks. Is it possible, based on this evidence, that individual adults aren't able to make appropriate risk calculations in this scenario, and therefore expose the health system to more risk than could be justified? Is it right that individuals can choose to push medical staff to the brink - at a time when medical staff burnout was already a serious problem pre-pandemic - simply because they choose not to accept the risks that they're exposing themselves to? I can't imagine people think the amount of pressure medical staff are being put under is reasonable, especially given so many of the infections are entirely avoidable.
People will do as they please on an individual basis it seems. I’m sure there’s an interesting psychological lesson to learn because generally it’s the threat of consequence that stops people doing as they please. In this situation the threat of consequence isn’t from the law but from the risk of infecting other people, family members even. And it appears not to be a significant enough threat to stop people doing what they want.
Safe to say that in a crisis situation the best response is direct commands. I’m sure there’s a management style study that backs that up that’s basically says ‘when things are either really tough or really easy, management style should be hard. When things are normal it should be relaxed’. I can’t remember the name of the study though
 
Just had a video call with a friend my age in London who has deteriorated all week and may not survive tonight. He doesn't even have the breath to whisper.
What the hell. How old are they and did they have any previous condition
 
What the hell. How old are they and did they have any previous condition

Why do people keep asking this? We all know that an underlying condition increases the chance of doing badly but surely at this stage we also all know that there are plenty of people in ITUs (and morgues) that were neither elderly nor had an underlying condition?
 


The incubation period for an infection is usually 5-7 days (but can be up to 14) and antibodies often take up.to 3 weeks after infection (and presumably vaccination) to build to detectable levels. So unsurprisingly you can test positive for covid very soon after having your first shot.

The aim is to reduce R to below 1 if possible and/or massively reduce the symptoms of those who do become infected.
 
Why do people keep asking this? We all know that an underlying condition increases the chance of doing badly but surely at this stage we also all know that there are plenty of people in ITUs (and morgues) that were neither elderly nor had an underlying condition?

Because it is scary to think you may get severe covid most likely.
 
Why do people keep asking this? We all know that an underlying condition increases the chance of doing badly but surely at this stage we also all know that there are plenty of people in ITUs (and morgues) that were neither elderly nor had an underlying condition?

Tell me if I'm wrong but I seem to remember reading that one of the main suspects in those deaths is that the infection puts a lot of strains on the heart and other organs who overtime can fail.
 
Tell me if I'm wrong but I seem to remember reading that one of the main suspects in those deaths is that the infection puts a lot of strains on the heart and other organs who overtime can fail.

Kind of. It’s pretty complex. The main driver for what kills a lot of young people seems to be abnormal clotting. Driven by an exaggerated immune response. Their lungs get messed up on the vascular side, as well as the airway side. The “cytokine storm” can mess up other organs too (kidneys, liver)

The older/more vulnerable can die from a more straightforward viral pneumonia. Airways fill up with crap, they get oxygen deficient and don’t have enough reserves to compensate. It’s physically tiring struggling to breathe - day after day - and if they’re frail to begin with they just can’t maintain the effort.
 
Kind of. It’s pretty complex. The main driver for what kills a lot of young people seems to be abnormal clotting. Driven by an exaggerated immune response.

The older/more vulnerable can die from a more straightforward viral pneumonia. Airways fill up with crap, they get oxygen deficient and don’t have enough reserves to compensate. It’s physically tiring struggling to breathe - day after day - and if they’re frail to begin with they just can’t maintain the effort.

Thanks, I remember someone mentioning blood clots.
 
I may be exaggerating the coagulopathy. It’s really interesting and stuck in my memory but calling it “the main driver” could be poetic license!

When you mentioned it I recalled that someone suggested it, it was linked to antiphospholipid syndrome. But I didn't follow it and don't know if they found more evidences.
 
Why do people keep asking this? We all know that an underlying condition increases the chance of doing badly but surely at this stage we also all know that there are plenty of people in ITUs (and morgues) that were neither elderly nor had an underlying condition?
Out of curiosity really
 
Ive just fallen out with my brother.
I have finally snapped with his Covid denial - lockdown protest bullshit. Repeating twitter bullshit as gospel but criticises anyone else that may you know listen to a doctor or someone that actually knows what they are talking about. Not feckin Karen from Facebook.
I havent been so fecking angry in years. I feel like driving to his house to punch his lights out the complete imbecile.

The world is fecked and he becomes the type of prick that is exacerbating the problem. Posting videos of the English police going into someones house claiming its in Ireland and that our right are being trod on as we are in lock down. Refuses to read any sort of credibly sources news or medical professionals opinions, wont look at the videos of health care staff on their knees. A selfish prick and I am so disgusted with him. I am ashamed of him. Livid. I have left the family whatsapp now as its making me want to smash him the arsehole.

I hope he gets a fecking horrible dose of it