SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Too short notice to change the Xmas rules now - plans have been made, food bought, etc.

 

[Brwned]

Too short notice to change the Xmas rules now - plans have been made, food bought, etc.

Changing plans and throwing away food sounds like a relatively small sacrifice vs accelerating an already growing spread at a time when hospital staff are desperately worried about managing the usual winter peak with an incoming covid peak.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

More info on the mutation discussed by Hand Cock. Or “distractus londinium” as per one of the tweets responding.

 

[acnumber9]

You can only stick with it so far though. Look at Germany. Just had to close all shops the week before Christmas. Having closed restaurants/bars a few weeks before that.

Yeah I get that too. But the yo yoing in the UK can’t be helping. It’s a difficult choice to make but the way we’re doing it in Northern Ireland feels like the worst of both worlds at the minute.

 

[massi83]

Changing plans and throwing away food sounds like a relatively small sacrifice vs accelerating an already growing spread at a time when hospital staff are desperately worried about managing the usual winter peak with an incoming covid peak.

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

 

[tombombadil]

Winter is coming for house Johnson.

One can only hope.

 

[Eugenius]

UK government should have focused on getting cases right down if they wanted Christmas to be fairly free. But too wedded to keeping schools open and too scared of the backlash from the right wing of the Tory party in having an extended lockdown.

 

[SilentWitness]

What Bruce has just said about those two Newcastle players not doing well at all has reiterated to me just how bad this virus is. Two elite athletes compared to your average joe.

 

[massi83]

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

Well obviously it should be different, I am wondering how different, since there are too many contacts between people in many countries. Numbers would be nice. And can't use data from Aus/Nz as they had far stricter restrictions and basicly no travel at all. If there is data from South America or South Africa then that's more comparable.

 

[Smores]

But the vast majority of people are being selfish can you imagine the outcry if the government said no 2 households are allowed to meet inside during xmas, (which probably should be the rule) It just wouldn't be accepted. Even most right-minded people I know don't seem to want to hear they can't see everyone they want to at xmas. The 'us' are in a tiny minorty, the vast majority of people will break the rules whatever they are over xmas. And when the vast majoirty of the population wants to do something, you have to blame the population, not the government.

The rest of your comments I agree with, though I think the government has been far to swayed by public opinion throughout the pandemic its seems to make its policy depending on who is complaining the loudest on any one given day. which has lead to an absolute mess. But year Furlough scheme one thing they have vaguely got right.

But the governments mistake isn't the christmas period it's the lead up to it. All the experts said the lower tiers weren't enough to stop a rise and yet here we are talking about numbers being too high and what a crisis it will be when everyone ignores measures over Christmas.

If the government had put in harsher measures earlier as many health experts suggested then rates would have been low enough to reduce the risk.

The governments job isn't just to set rules and hope people comply. It's to take mitigating actions as necessary and they've failed.

As for not allowing people to see family over Christmas it's too much of an ask out of 'social good' when this was caused by government and other people. The best you can do is to focus on getting people not to spread it to at risk family members and take precautions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Well obviously it should be different, I am wondering how different, since there are too many contacts between people in many countries. Numbers would be nice. And can't use data from Aus/Nz as they had far stricter restrictions and basicly no travel at all. If there is data from South America or South Africa then that's more comparable.

I remember wondering about South American winter experiences during June/July/August and couldn’t find anything useful.

 

[Dante]

And yet I see feck all on the media or news there about how bad it is, even on the BBC it's barely mentioned. Yet when Italy and Spain were at their peak all your saw was stories about the horror over there. Shocking.

Italy has overtaken the UK again for most deaths in Europe. Barely anything in the media about it. The BBC haven't even covered it.

 

[Wibble]

Common sense tells us there won’t be the usual winter influenza peak. And we’ve already seen this happen in the Southern hemisphere.

In mid winter we had 400 fewer deaths per month this year. Partly lockdown and masks/distancing and part a bigger flu vaccine uptake - shots ordered rose from 7.2m in 2017 to 18m this year.

 

[Brwned]

Is there/will there be usual winter peak this year in UK? Anyone have the stats so far? In Finland we have had 16 influenza cases so far, compared to around 1.000 cases this time last year. Obviously timing of the peaks vary from year to year a lot.

I wouldn't think so, but I would consider the nurses and doctors' worries to be legitimate all the same. Their worst-case scenario seems very unlikely from my perspective, but given how bad that worst case scenario is, I can understand why they are asking for a Christmas lockdown to minimise that possibility. It's still an unknown how people are going to act over Christmas, which leaves open the possibility of a significant sudden spike that has just been artificially maintained by social distancing.

For the UK, the last that was said about influenza was in this report from last week which said:

Surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has plateaued during week 49. There is currently limited testing for other respiratory viruses, however, laboratory indicators suggest that influenza activity is low.

Also...

Influenza vaccine uptake is 78.5% in people aged 65 years + which is the highest uptake ever achieved. Uptake in 2 and 3 year children is the highest ever recorded. For those in at-risk groups uptake is higher than the same time in the last three seasons. For pregnant women uptake is higher than the same time last season

But yeah I don't know of any wider data!

 

[Camilo]

I think it's very sad that we haven't managed to take personal responsibility for this whole thing yet, it's still "please government, tell us what to do" and "that person's a twat for not doing things my way".

Shows how shite our society is really, too busy sniffing our own shit to actually improve. Right, I'm off for a few beers round me nans.

 

[Jericholyte2]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55325621

Well! Who didn’t see this coming...

• Give everyone a month of Christmas spending, thinking they’ll be able to spend it with their families
• A week or two beforehand let it be known they’ll need to strengthen the Christmas rules but be non-committal about it
• By the end of this week / Monday they confirm that, following the science, they cannot allow households to mix again

 

[Tibs]

Reckon we'll be staying in Tier 3 tomorrow, which I would support.

 

[Pexbo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55325621

Well! Who didn’t see this coming...

• Give everyone a month of Christmas spending, thinking they’ll be able to spend it with their families
• A week or two beforehand let it be known they’ll need to strengthen the Christmas rules but be non-committal about it
• By the end of this week / Monday they confirm that, following the science, they cannot allow households to mix again

It’s what they have done all along.

1. Everything is going to be great, you can all do what you want.

2. Well actually that’s a bad idea the science shows that’s a bad idea but we are not going to stop you although we are going to plead with you to be considerate and as safe in your actions as possible.

3. Well would you look at that huge huge spike, we did our best to tell you but you have completely ignored our advice and this is all your fault and all on you.

 

[Wibble]

Short answer: no.
That particular manufacturer's vaccine saw a doubling in the narcolepsy rate, amongst those who took it, it went up to 1:50000 as opposed to 1:100000 who would get diagnosed with it in a normal year. In a clinical trial - statistically speaking at that level, you might not see any cases of it at all, and you won't have enough cases to see a pattern.

Longer answer: in countries where swine flu spread rapidly, the rate of narcolepsy cases also went up and at a similar rate.

It's important to note that the reason why that story is discussed is that it is because it's a rarity. There have been hundreds of new vaccine formulations since then, and billions of vaccinations. Serious vaccine side-effects are rare, that's why the same incidents are talked about a lot.

It's like a lot of things in life unfortunately - there's a risk analysis to be done. We know the lack of a vaccine has already killed about 1:1000 of the population in the UK, and that's despite us living with some pretty miserable restrictions. I don't believe any approved vaccine will kill or cause longterm harm to 1:1000 of the people taking it, I don't even believe it will do it to 1:10000.

Beyond that (as we start to talk about 1:100000 or 1 in a million) we won't know for sure until more people take it. We do know what will happen if people keep getting covid though - a lot of deaths, a massive overload on the health service, and a large number of people with long-lasting illness.

I think that was traced back to an adjutant that we have stopped using so a reoccurrence is unlikely, but even if it wasn't I'd take a very slightly increased chance of getting narcolepsy over the very high risk of getting severe symptoms from covid. And of course there is a 50:50 chance that the person who got narcolepsy would have got it anyway.

 

[sammsky1]

What’s the point of all this intense UK Government and media discussion on what will and won’t be allowed over XMAS when whatever is decided won’t be policed or legally enforced anyway?

 

[Acole9]

You can already see what will happen Drakeford will be first and say Wales will not allow household mixing, he doesn't give a shit about who he upsets. Sturgeon will follow suit, she appears to have the public confidence behind her so won't bat an eyelid. Then that'll make Johnson wobble and bluster when he sees the other nations backtracking.

 

[BluesJr]

What’s the point of all this intense UK Government and media discussion on what will and won’t be allowed over XMAS when whatever is decided won’t be policed or legally enforced anyway?

This is the biggest issue imo. There’s literally no enforcement. It’s embarrassing.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

But the governments mistake isn't the christmas period it's the lead up to it. All the experts said the lower tiers weren't enough to stop a rise and yet here we are talking about numbers being too high and what a crisis it will be when everyone ignores measures over Christmas.

If the government had put in harsher measures earlier as many health experts suggested then rates would have been low enough to reduce the risk.

The governments job isn't just to set rules and hope people comply. It's to take mitigating actions as necessary and they've failed.

As for not allowing people to see family over Christmas it's too much of an ask out of 'social good' when this was caused by government and other people. The best you can do is to focus on getting people not to spread it to at risk family members and take precautions.

Agreed that all experts have agreed on this, all the experts are also saying allowing this relaxing of the rules over Xmas is a terrible mistake. Every single person in the country knows it now, is it going to stop the vast majority from having fairly large family Christmas's? No. So you can't just go well it the government's fault. They should have done this, they should have done that, yes they should have but that doesn't devoid every individual who has an extended family Christmas a certain proportion of the blame for what pretty much every expert is saying is going to be a disaster.

But the whole idea that we need to get the levels lower so we can see each other at Christmas is crazy to start with, the goal shouldn't be Christmas the goal should be the long term health and lively hoods of the population. If Christmas gets in the way of that then you do what Germany is doing and say sorry you're locked down over Xmas.

The simple problem is people want a Christmas as near as possible to normal and don't want to accept any blame at all for the consequences of that. We as a country are been told by pretty much every expert going that what is about to happen over xmas is going to cost lives. We as a country aren't prepared to not be allowed to see our families over xmas, so we as a country have to accept the blame for the consequences, not just point fingers at other people.

 

[F-Red]

This is the biggest issue imo. There’s literally no enforcement. It’s embarrassing.

What do you expect though? Seriously? Police to be knocking on every door on Xmas day to check how many people are in the house?

 

[Nytram Shakes]

What’s the point of all this intense UK Government and media discussion on what will and won’t be allowed over XMAS when whatever is decided won’t be policed or legally enforced anyway?

Yeah agreed, whatever the government says is or isn't allowed is probably going to make minimal difference to how people act without consequences to those actions.

 

[jojojo]

Actually, I've noticed a bit of a change amongst older family, friends and neighbours since the vaccine became available. I'd summarise it as, "we're going to have a bloody good party at Easter instead."

The idea of a way out and some kind of timeline has helped. The ones who were hesitating, are now talking about postponing it, "until we can do it properly."

The ones who weren't hesitating wouldn't listen to the rules anyway - perhaps rightly in the case of some who know it's likely to be their last Christmas. But also in the case of those where it just solidifies the reality that they're mixing anyway - like grandparents in child care loops, and others who've stretched the "bubble" concept way beyond the guidelines.

 

[Brwned]

Agreed that all experts have agreed on this, all the experts are also saying allowing this relaxing of the rules over Xmas is a terrible mistake. Every single person in the country knows it now, is it going to stop the vast majority from having fairly large family Christmas's? No. So you can't just go well it the government's fault. They should have done this, they should have done that, yes they should have but that doesn't devoid every individual who has an extended family Christmas a certain proportion of the blame for what pretty much every expert is saying is going to be a disaster.

But the whole idea that we need to get the levels lower so we can see each other at Christmas is crazy to start with, the goal shouldn't be Christmas the goal should be the long term health and lively hoods of the population. If Christmas gets in the way of that then you do what Germany is doing and say sorry you're locked down over Xmas.

The simple problem is people want a Christmas as near as possible to normal and don't want to accept any blame at all for the consequences of that. We as a country are been told by pretty much every expert going that what is about to happen over xmas is going to cost lives. We as a country aren't prepared to not be allowed to see our families over xmas, so we as a country have to accept the blame for the consequences, not just point fingers at other people.

There's a slight problem with your Germany comparison: the reason they're locking down over Christmas is because their population wanted to live a life as close to normal as possible in the build-up to it, rising cases didn't act as enough of a signal, and things started to get out of control. Otherwise they were going to have a semi-normal Christmas.

They had a 7-day average of 70 deaths per day on 1st November, 177 on the 16th November, 342 on 1st December and it reached 504 yesterday. The broke their daily death total by a huge margin at the same time. Germany had better systems in place to prevent this from happening, and better infrastructure to deal with it if it does. They have now said that system has been breached: there are too many people to reliably trace the contacts of those infected.

It is not a UK problem. It is human nature to want to live "normally". In fact I'm pretty sure it's universal in all animals, maybe all organisms, to live habitually (or the biological equivalent). That is not a whimsical notion that you can just throw away, it's something people need to fight against deep within themselves to comply to these unnatural rules that don't fit with our biology or psychology. The fact that some people find it harder to cut off all social and physical ties and submit to higher powers is not evidence of weakness.

 

[DOTA]

It's just hit me what is gonna begin in just over a week and it's heart breaking.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

There's a slight problem with your Germany comparison: the reason they're locking down over Christmas is because their population wanted to live a life as close to normal as possible in the build-up to it, rising cases didn't act as enough of a signal, and things started to get out of control. Otherwise they were going to have a semi-normal Christmas.

They had a 7-day average of 70 deaths per day on 1st November, 177 on the 16th November, 342 on 1st December and it reached 504 yesterday. The broke their daily death total by a huge margin at the same time. Germany had better systems in place to prevent this from happening, and better infrastructure to deal with it if it does. They have now said that system has been breached: there are too many people to reliably trace the contacts of those infected.

Yes but as the cases are rising and this system is broke they are taking action and locking down over xmas. Our cases are on a similar level, our system is for handling the pandemic is a mess, our population has shown to be less capable of minimising contact. Yet we are preparing to relax the rules, while they prepare to tighten them.

It is not a UK problem. It is human nature to want to live "normally". In fact I'm pretty sure it's universal in all animals, maybe all organisms, to live habitually (or the biological equivalent). That is not a whimsical notion that you can just throw away, it's something people need to fight against deep within themselves to comply to these unnatural rules that don't fit with our biology or psychology. The fact that some people find it harder to cut off all social and physical ties and submit to higher powers is not evidence of weakness.

In no way am i saying its easy, but just because something is hard doesn't mean you are devoid of any blame. Take the government, is managing this pandemic were you have to balance saving peoples lives, with protecting peoples livelihoods, while coping with a population that and media that seem to be doing 180 every couple of days, you lock us down we complain, you don't lock us down we complain... That's really hard to handle, does that mean we should give the government a pass and say don't worry about the fact you have made a mess of it all? Absolutely not!

It's the same with people, thiers people I love I haven't seen in months, thiers activities i want to do that I just don't get to at the moment. It's hard! But if i suddenly go ow sod it this is hard i want to be allowed to see people and do more things, and I contribute towards a spread of the virus in some way then the fact i'm finding it hard doesn't mean i should not be accountable for my actions, it doesn't just give me the right to stand and blame everyone and everything else and not take any responsibility for myself.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I've made my Xmas plans based on the 5 day relaxation - invites sorted, food bought etc. Going to avoid watching any news etc now as it’s depressing.

 

[Sarni]

I've spoken to a few people who live abroad about their situation.

They'll say restaurants and clubs and cinemas remain open, but nobody goes and most people choose to stay away from places by choice.

It is curious how we seem to have the attitude to flock places as soon as they open. But then, i can't say i'm guilt-free. I can't wait to do things again.

Well I’m in Poland and I’m in minority of people who believe the virus really exists. We had 32k excess deaths last month yet vast majority of our population think it’s a much, much milder flu and not a threat to anybody.

 

[Penna]

What do you expect though? Seriously? Police to be knocking on every door on Xmas day to check how many people are in the house?

I think if there'd been more enforcement in public areas months ago, people would understand that it's important to stay as safe as possible. Obviously there won't be any enforcement in people's houses (unless they're clearly having a loud and packed party), so once again it depends on whether folk are self-disciplined or not.

 

[Dave_MUFC]

What’s the point of all this intense UK Government and media discussion on what will and won’t be allowed over XMAS when whatever is decided won’t be policed or legally enforced anyway?

I think it's literally just the government trying to put the blame on the public. As usual, relying on common sense and advising, then turning around and saying "I told you so" when shit hits the fan. It's just deflection from a spineless government.

What do you expect though? Seriously? Police to be knocking on every door on Xmas day to check how many people are in the house?

Doesn't have to be that strict. A valid solution would be to stop people travelling through different regions (unless there was a valid reason like work, medical needs etc.), which is what they are currently doing in Italy. Put police on borders of regions, and that way you're going to stop the spread from different tiered areas, which is the main method of the virus spread at the moment.

 

[Stanley Road]

We could all take control and police it ourselves and grass people up, proper vigilante like

 

[Penna]

Doesn't have to be that strict. A valid solution would be to stop people travelling through different regions (unless there was a valid reason like work, medical needs etc.), which is what they are currently doing in Italy. Put police on borders of regions, and that way you're going to stop the spread from different tiered areas, which is the main method of the virus spread at the moment.

At the moment the Italian government has said we can't leave our municipalities at all on 25/26 December and 1January. This is particularly hard for people in very small municipalities, who may have family living very close by but just outside the border of their village.

 

[Dave_MUFC]

At the moment the Italian government has said we can't leave our municipalities at all on 25/26 December and 1January. This is particularly hard for people in very small municipalities, who may have family living very close by but just outside the border of their village.

Yes, I was about to state that too, but wasn't 100% sure on the details, so left it out.

Puts it in perspective, how ridiculous the UK population has handled such light restrictions, compared to the rest of Europe...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yes, I was about to state that too, but wasn't 100% sure on the details, so left it out.

Puts it in perspective, how ridiculous the UK population has handled such light restrictions, compared to the rest of Europe...

I certainly wouldn’t use the Italian approach/experience as a reason to look down on the UK. Or any other country at all really.

EDIT: Not having a go at the Italian people. Or the Italian government. I have no idea who is most to blame for what’s happened. But their pandemic experience has been an absolute disaster, from start to finish.

 

[Volumiza]

We could all take control and police it ourselves and grass people up, proper vigilante like

I would that's for sure if I saw people openly flouting the rules and I usually hate snitches. Christmas will be hard for everyone, and considerate people who take their social responsibilities seriously are all having to make difficult family choices this year so it would p*ss me off seeing people just selfishly doing as they please.

 

[Penna]

Yes, I was about to state that too, but wasn't 100% sure on the details, so left it out.

Puts it in perspective, how ridiculous the UK population has handled such light restrictions, compared to the rest of Europe...

The scientific/technical committee that advises the Italian government said yesterday they want stricter restrictions over the whole Christmas period, which may well happen. They think Italian yellow zones (lowest risk) should be under stricter restrictions.