SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

On the topic of people being against restrictions, and the Tory Tw@ts (their must be a correlation between them and Brexit?)....but, what's the alternative?

I've yet to hear anything, other than LOOK AT SWEEEDUN.
 
On the topic of people being against restrictions, and the Tory Tw@ts (their must be a correlation between them and Brexit?)....but, what's the alternative?

I've yet to hear anything, other than LOOK AT SWEEEDUN.

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@Pogue Mahone what do you make of places like the US relaxing school restrictions while the pandemic is clearly not under control?

New York Times said:
Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Sunday that he would reopen public elementary schools, abruptly shifting policy in the face of widespread criticism that officials were placing more of a priority on economic activities like indoor dining than the well-being of New York City’s children.

Mr. de Blasio said middle and high schools would remain closed, but also signaled that he would overhaul how the city manages the system during the pandemic, which has forced millions of children in the United States out of schools and is perceived to have done significant damage to their education and mental health.

The mayor said the city would abandon a 3 percent test positivity threshold that it had adopted for closing the school system, the largest in the country, with 1.1 million children. And he said the system would aim to give many parents the option of sending their children to school five days a week, which would effectively end the so-called hybrid learning system for some city schools.

Students can return only if they have already signed up for in-person learning, meaning just about 190,000 children in the grades and schools the city is reopening next week would be eligible. About 335,000 students in total have chosen in-person classes.

Children in pre-K and elementary school can return starting Dec. 7. Mr. de Blasio also announced that students with the most complex disabilities can return on Dec. 10.
“Whatever happens ahead, we want this to be the plan going forward,” Mr. de Blasio said at a news conference. “We know what we didn’t know over the summer, we know what works from actual experience.”

Mr. de Blasio is reopening elementary schools even though the city’s seven-day average test positivity rate on Sunday had climbed to 3.9 percent — well above the former threshold that led him to close the system on Nov. 18 as a second wave of the outbreak threatened the city.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who has often clashed with Mr. de Blasio over the response to the pandemic and has final authority over how schools operate during the crisis, said on Sunday that he supported the mayor’s plan.

Bringing children and educators safely back into public schools has been one of the most vexing, high-stakes problems created by the pandemic.

As virus cases have spiked across the country in recent weeks, some cities, like Philadelphia, have delayed plans to reopen schools, and others, including Los Angeles, do not yet have a plan to reopen. Many children throughout the country have not returned to classrooms since March, and it is unclear how many will before a vaccine is distributed.

Starting in the summer, Mr. de Blasio sought to make New York the first big city in the country to fully reopen its public school system. After a series of logistical and political problems forced the mayor to twice delay the start of in-person classes, the city welcomed hundreds of thousands of children back into classrooms about two months ago.
Reopening, despite its many issues, was a major milestone in the city’s long path to recovery — and the closing of the schools less than eight weeks later was a blow.

Still, the number of cases in the school system itself remained very low, so Mr. de Blasio’s decision became a flash point in a broader debate throughout the country and the world over what should be closed during the pandemic. Officials have wrestled with whether to keep classrooms open while forcing indoor dining rooms and bars, which are far more likely to spread the virus, to shut.

Mr. Cuomo, not the mayor, controls regulations regarding indoor dining, bars and gyms. But after the city schools closed, both Mr. Cuomo and Mr. de Blasio had come under intense criticism from some parents, who expressed deep concern about how their children were faring during remote learning.

Mayor Bill de Blasio greeted students as they arrived for the first day of in-person learning in Elmhurst, Queens, in September.

In fact, the timing of Mr. de Blasio’s announcement raised new questions about why he decided to close schools at all just 12 days ago.

Managing the city’s sprawling public school system has clearly been one of the most daunting tasks facing the mayor and his team during the pandemic. But the seemingly haphazard changes to the reopening plan have been frustrating for parents and educators. The mayor himself acknowledged as much on Sunday when asked whether he had any regrets about closing schools again.

“I felt pained — I didn’t want to do that to kids or parents,” he said.

After several tumultuous weeks, Mr. de Blasio’s announcement was generally well-received on Sunday. The powerful teachers union, the United Federation of Teachers, which has often clashed with City Hall over its effort to reopen the system, said it supported the new plan, as long as rigorous virus testing was in place.

The new blueprint represents the city’s second shot at reopening, after the first attempt was plagued by problems and the trigger that Mr. de Blasio’ set for closing schools — a positive rate of 3 percent on all virus tests conducted in the city — was roundly assailed as too low by parents, politicians and public health experts.

Now, instead of using such a metric, the city will increase testing in schools and close those that have multiple confirmed virus cases. The system will also, for now, adopt a model that has become more common across the country and world, offering classroom instruction only to young children and students with disabilities.

Since Mr. de Blasio first announced his plan to reopen schools in July, mounting evidence has shown that elementary schools in particular can be relatively safe, as long as strict safety protocols are followed.

New York’s schools had extremely low test positivity rates during the roughly eight weeks they were open this fall, and there was agreement from the president of the teachers’ union to the mayor’s top public health officials that schools were far safer than had been anticipated. By the time schools closed, the school positivity rate was .28 percent.

I can see the merit to saying children's education is more important to protect than hospitality jobs (although I don't think that's clear-cut at all), but making trade-offs that allow you to just about keep a lid on things is a long way from just bowing to public demand when controlling transmission is already nearly impossible.

While the UK have managed to bring down the R rate significantly without closing schools, that's only possible because it is falling amount the majority of the population. The incidence rate continues to go up for uni students, teenagers and young kids. It's great that it doesn't cause the scale of outbreaks proportional to the amount of people packed indoors for long periods of times, but even without mass outbreaks it continues to push against the prevailing trends. I can't see how that's a reasonable sacrifice when countries are in situations like the US. Especially in the build-up to intergenerational parties.
 
@Pogue Mahone what do you make of places like the US relaxing school restrictions while the pandemic is clearly not under control?



I can see the merit to saying children's education is more important to protect than hospitality jobs (although I don't think that's clear-cut at all), but making trade-offs that allow you to just about keep a lid on things is a long way from just bowing to public demand when controlling transmission is already nearly impossible.

While the UK have managed to bring down the R rate significantly without closing schools, that's only possible because it is falling amount the majority of the population. The incidence rate continues to go up for uni students, teenagers and young kids. It's great that it doesn't cause the scale of outbreaks proportional to the amount of people packed indoors for long periods of times, but even without mass outbreaks it continues to push against the prevailing trends. I can't see how that's a reasonable sacrifice when countries are in situations like the US. Especially in the build-up to intergenerational parties.

The US definition of “schools” is so broad it’s hard to give a one size fits all opinion. In general, though, I agree with prioritising keeping schools (with UK meaning of the word) open over keeping pubs/restaurants open. Of course this has to involve appropriate financial safety nets for employers/employees in that industry.
 
My Mums friend had to travel to the Isle of Sheppey (Swale) in Kent yesterday to pick something up.

While there with her husband they decided to have a walk around.

She said it was like walking into a different world. Zero mask wearing and no social distancing at all.

They were berated and laughed at for wearing masks when entering a shop.

No wonder things are so bad in that area.

Thanks to idiots like that all of us in Kent will be in Tier 3.

I'm in maidstone, and if I pop to any of the little shops, nobody is wearing one. They all look at me as some sort of freak for wearing one. Then there's the people that can't wear one because they have breathing issues, but are queuing up for fags
 
@Pogue Mahone what do you make of places like the US relaxing school restrictions while the pandemic is clearly not under control?



I can see the merit to saying children's education is more important to protect than hospitality jobs (although I don't think that's clear-cut at all), but making trade-offs that allow you to just about keep a lid on things is a long way from just bowing to public demand when controlling transmission is already nearly impossible.

While the UK have managed to bring down the R rate significantly without closing schools, that's only possible because it is falling amount the majority of the population. The incidence rate continues to go up for uni students, teenagers and young kids. It's great that it doesn't cause the scale of outbreaks proportional to the amount of people packed indoors for long periods of times, but even without mass outbreaks it continues to push against the prevailing trends. I can't see how that's a reasonable sacrifice when countries are in situations like the US. Especially in the build-up to intergenerational parties.

That's a weird reading of the Imperial data - primary kids are lower than 2 rounds ago after a dip that could have just been sampling error (massive error bars). 18-24 are dropping. Only the secondary school incidence rate is marginally increasing.

Given the Ofsted findings on the impacts of school closures during the initial lockdown, and the fact that, if they wanted to, the government could mitigate all the losses of hospitality businesses during closures, keeping schools open in the UK is reasonable.

What they should do in the US isn't clear to me at all. They've essentially got a wildfire going on, and no cohesive plan to bring it under control. Bits and pieces, like just banning indoor dining, are barely going to make a dent. They basically need a full lockdown, and yes, that probably should include schools in the worst hit states, or at least secondary schools, initially.
 
That's a weird reading of the Imperial data - primary kids are lower than 2 rounds ago after a dip that could have just been sampling error (massive error bars). 18-24 are dropping. Only the secondary school incidence rate is marginally increasing.

Given the Ofsted findings on the impacts of school closures during the initial lockdown, and the fact that, if they wanted to, the government could mitigate all the losses of hospitality businesses during closures, keeping schools open in the UK is reasonable.

What they should do in the US isn't clear to me at all. They've essentially got a wildfire going on, and no cohesive plan to bring it under control. Bits and pieces, like just banning indoor dining, are barely going to make a dent. They basically need a full lockdown, and yes, that probably should include schools in the worst hit states, or at least secondary schools, initially.

Oh you're right, I misdescribed the data, I was talking about the relative risk of catching the virus going up for the young folks while going down for the others. This table, essentially.

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Whatever way you want to look at it, the decline in infection rates is slowed down by school-age kids and uni students. While every other age group has either held steady or fallen, they have registered significant relative increases. They are relatively more likely to be infected in late November than the average person than they were in late October. When you remove those other aspects of society, the rates fall quicker for others than they do for kids. And they were already more likely to be infected at the start of it. We know why that is.

I agree even in that context, it is reasonable to keep schools open and prioritise them ahead of sectors of the economy. I don't think it is a clear-cut decision but I would probably make the same decision under those circumstances. I was just pointing out that the epidemiological costs are there to see.
 
He is reopening schools two weeks before the winter break. And this is in the middle of a surge in cases similar to what they had back in April. It’s so fecking stupid and unnecessary.
 
Australia had zero cases of community transmission today. Hopefully this means that South Australia has their outbreak sorted out.
 
Son got told to stay home today. 55 adults
Isolating from his school meant they reduced school hours from 9-12. They then said if you choose to keep your child home, that it’s fine. So we did what we were going to do anyway.

I don’t think they’ll be back before the Christmas holidays
 
Australia had zero cases of community transmission today. Hopefully this means that South Australia has their outbreak sorted out.

We had two weeks of zero local transmission cases here in Singapore and were just about to break out in celebration before cases broke out again (albeit still quite low). It is quite likely that there is still transmission, just asymptomatic and undetected (yet).
 
This may not be a popular thing to say but I am disappointed in Starmmer for abstaining. Either back it or don't. Personally, I don't think he should until the government has provided the full evidence.

I am pro vaccine and wanting to do what is right and get this under control, but provide the full evidence of the total costs and benefits of these tiers/lockdowns - it's not just COVID, but all the other things that get impacted by it.

Starmmer, like all the rebel back bencher's are rightly saying (felt dirty to praise them), should say to Boris that he will throw his weight behind the tiers/lockdowns IF he releases all the evidence and that shows it is the best course of action across the board

In times of crisis, you need strong opposition to hold the governing party to account to make sure they are making the right decisions as much as possible. Labour have been anything but strong
 
This may not be a popular thing to say but I am disappointed in Starmmer for abstaining. Either back it or don't. Personally, I don't think he should until the government has provided the full evidence.

I am pro vaccine and wanting to do what is right and get this under control, but provide the full evidence of the total costs and benefits of these tiers/lockdowns - it's not just COVID, but all the other things that get impacted by it.

Starmmer, like all the rebel back bencher's are rightly saying (felt dirty to praise them), should say to Boris that he will throw his weight behind the tiers/lockdowns IF he releases all the evidence and that shows it is the best course of action across the board

In times of crisis, you need strong opposition to hold the governing party to account to make sure they are making the right decisions as much as possible. Labour have been anything but strong

There is no such thing as concrete evidence on these decisions, there's lots of incomplete evidence saying different things from different perspectives that require you to make a judgement call that might be wrong. Providing the wealth of evidence just gives more ammunition for both sides of the argument to cherry pick for slogans. It doesn't validate or invalidate the judgments made because it doesn't have that power. It's the nature of crisis management grounded in new and complicated problems.

The best evidence on the subject has been made available by SAGE not just to politicians but to the public. All available here. There's more evidence in there than those backbenchers are ever going to read, and it's more nuanced than they are able to process. Lots about the health effects but plenty about the economic and social effects too. A lot of their questions about the total impact would be answered here, but you, I and they will never read it all. Which means we end up relying on expert assessments of fuzzy evidence which provides politicians with multiple pathways and no obvious choices. They know that which is why the requests of evidence are just political moves to create misleading headlines.
 
This may not be a popular thing to say but I am disappointed in Starmmer for abstaining. Either back it or don't. Personally, I don't think he should until the government has provided the full evidence.

I am pro vaccine and wanting to do what is right and get this under control, but provide the full evidence of the total costs and benefits of these tiers/lockdowns - it's not just COVID, but all the other things that get impacted by it.

Total costs & benefits? It's not a business case they're submitting here. It should be quite obvious the benefits, ie. all key metrics aren't under control. Risk of further transmission and regress backwards. Especially now as we're hitting winter, where hospitals see typically higher strains on capacity. What evidence are you particularly after though? Why everyone has moved back into tiers?



The tiering system looks to be broadly correct based on the metrics they are scoring it on. However I think it's naive to assume society will open up fully on 2nd of December without some form of tiered approach geographically.
 
I've heard from friends in London they are now using DIY kits even in testing centres? I suppose that's one way to bring the case numbers down. There's no way most people will push the swab far enough up their nose on their own.

I was looking at doing this "test and release" program when I arrive back into London and pretty much all of the private tests I was looking at said they were administered by a medical professional, so that seemed a little implausible to me. But one of my mates is working as a site manager at one of the test centres, the ones run by the government and private contractors for people who have symptoms, and yeah he said the same thing. They've been doing that pretty much since they started. No medical professionals on site and self-administered.

It wouldn't explain the trend because it's not a new practice, it would just indicate they've always been underestimating case numbers ever since they significantly expanded testing.

On top of that he said they were using these "red vials" supplied by Matt Hancock's neighbour until somewhat abruptly, soon after Channel 4's dispatches did an investigation how these vials were leaking while been transferred from testing sites, the company said they were going to stop using those, switch to another set of vials for a couple of weeks, and then would eventually get some new red ones. No explanation for why.

And probably worst of all there was an all-company e-mail that went out a few weeks after they'd gotten up and running in which a notice was sent out to say the testing kits needed to be stored in a controlled temperature environment. For weeks they had been kept in containers in different places, some at room temperature, some outside at near-zero. And they were told that the testing kits might not work if they weren't stored in those environments. But nothing was mentioned about how all of the tests conducted in previous weeks should be treated.

Shambles throughout.
 
Running a bad temperature and got tested. Not a pretty test..
 
Researchers looking at blood samples in the US have identified antibodies to SARS2 in blood donations from December 2019. The earliest group found so far are from 13-16 December with California (23 samples) and Washington/Oregon (16).

I must admit I'm not sure what to make of the results as they say:
Of the 7,389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity >50%, suggesting the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies. Donations with reactivity occurred in all nine states.
Which is a huge percentage - so presumably the tests have picked up a lot of people already carrying SAR2 active antibodies from some previous infection (or there was a SARS2.0 out there not causing deaths before SARS2.01 arrived) Or am I misreading it in some way - which in honesty wouldn't surprise as I came on here to talk about it rather than rereading the full document again. :smirk:

Summary at:
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
It includes the links to the full report (which is open access).
 
Researchers looking at blood samples in the US have identified antibodies to SARS2 in blood donations from December 2019. The earliest group found so far are from 13-16 December with California (23 samples) and Washington/Oregon (16).

I must admit I'm not sure what to make of the results as they say:
Of the 7,389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity >50%, suggesting the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies. Donations with reactivity occurred in all nine states.
Which is a huge percentage - so presumably the tests have picked up a lot of people already carrying SAR2 active antibodies from some previous infection (or there was a SARS2.0 out there not causing deaths before SARS2.01 arrived) Or am I misreading it in some way - which in honesty wouldn't surprise as I came on here to talk about it rather than rereading the full document again. :smirk:

Summary at:
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
It includes the links to the full report (which is open access).

I’m not reading the full report either! I think you might be misreading it though. Looks like only 100 out of 7.4k specimens were positive for antibodies. So a smidge over 1%, which isn’t “huge”. It’s also worth bearing in mind that blood donor serological surveys demonstrate a prevalence that consistently many multiples higher than in the community (presumably because they have regular interactions with hospitals/HCWs)
 
I’m not reading the full report either! I think you might be misreading it though. Looks like only 100 out of 7.4k specimens were positive for antibodies. So a smidge over 1%, which isn’t “huge”. It’s also worth bearing in mind that blood donor serological surveys demonstrate a prevalence that consistently many multiples higher than in the community (presumably because they have regular interactions with hospitals/HCWs)
The 13/16 December (west coast) set showed 2.6% among males, 1.4% among females. But even that 100/7400 (1.35%) which looks at more of the US still sounds huge to me for random blood samples that were all from before the first case was officially seen outside China. Given that after the first wave in the UK the studies were suggesting that about 10% of the population had SAR2 antibodies - that 2% without anyone noticing seems big to me.

Unless, the US tests are picking up some antibodies from another coronavirus that happened to be protective in some way. I know that idea of some people already being immune (in varying proportions in different countries) has been suggested before.
 
The 13/16 December (west coast) set showed 2.6% among males, 1.4% among females. But even that 100/7400 (1.35%) which looks at more of the US still sounds huge to me for random blood samples that were all from before the first case was officially seen outside China. Given that after the first wave in the UK the studies were suggesting that about 10% of the population had SAR2 antibodies - that 2% without anyone noticing seems big to me.

Unless, the US tests are picking up some antibodies from another coronavirus that happened to be protective in some way. I know that idea of some people already being immune (in varying proportions in different countries) has been suggested before.

I remember there was a Swedish blood donor survey from very early on in the epidemic which nearly hit double figures, only for the community testing to end up as barely 1%. So the “real” % here is probably very low. It is extremely early though. Not sure what to make of that. Cross-reactivity seems most likely explanation.
 
I came back positive today after a negative test last Friday. I've been getting awful back pains. And either I'm full of life or absolutely shattered over the last few days, no middle ground! Other than that I feel grand.
 
I came back positive today after a negative test last Friday. I've been getting awful back pains. And either I'm full of life or absolutely shattered over the last few days, no middle ground! Other than that I feel grand.
Wishing you a full and speedy recovery.
 
We had two weeks of zero local transmission cases here in Singapore and were just about to break out in celebration before cases broke out again (albeit still quite low). It is quite likely that there is still transmission, just asymptomatic and undetected (yet).

Even thought we have had no community transmission in 4 days in South Australia it is quite possible that there is some undiscovered community transmission left, although they had gone many months previously and this cluster is of known source - a quarantine hotel - so fingers crossed.

Still possible Victoria and NSW have the odd case not found yet even though both are now beyond the 28 day 2 x infection cycle since the last community transmission - again fingers crossed.
 
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It’s crazy how contagious it is

I was amazed. I genuinely wasn't in what is deemed as close contact with anyone. It must be that I touched a surface or something. One person basically brought it in and infected 6 others within a very short period of time. And I am expecting more,
 
I was amazed. I genuinely wasn't in what is deemed as close contact with anyone. It must be that I touched a surface or something. One person basically brought it in and infected 6 others within a very short period of time. And I am expecting more,

What's your working environment like? That attack rate might suggest airborne - is it a fairly stuffy office?
 
At last the U.K. seems to be ahead of the curve rather than behind it. Hope my optimism is not misplaced
 
I came back positive today after a negative test last Friday. I've been getting awful back pains. And either I'm full of life or absolutely shattered over the last few days, no middle ground! Other than that I feel grand.

Did you have symptoms when you tested negative?
 
Any update?

Tested negative, thankfully. Asked the person above the question because I had a fever of 101F and back pain, headache.

The doctor advised that false negatives are possible and I am wondering to what extent with the symptoms I had. Isolating for awhile in any case. I feel pretty normal now minus some tiredness. Thank you for asking.
 
Tested negative, thankfully. Asked the person above the question because I had a fever of 101F and back pain, headache.

The doctor advised that false negatives are possible and I am wondering to what extent with the symptoms I had. Isolating for awhile in any case. I feel pretty normal now minus some tiredness. Thank you for asking.
Was it a rapid test kit? those have a pretty high false negative rate .. at least the ones they are using in India.. not very reliable..
 
Tested negative, thankfully. Asked the person above the question because I had a fever of 101F and back pain, headache.

The doctor advised that false negatives are possible and I am wondering to what extent with the symptoms I had. Isolating for awhile in any case. I feel pretty normal now minus some tiredness. Thank you for asking.

Really good news.