SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Well avoiding 2 hours a day of driving certainly means I spend more of the day actually working.
Not to mention the environmental benefits to that as mentioned by @Fluctuation0161
Guys, I feel like I’m living in a crazy world.
We locked down properly originally and it looked like we had it under control. Positive cases stayed low during eat out to help out.
We opened schools and a few weeks later the cases rose drastically.
Until last week when they seemed to plateau (following a week after half term). Just after this we see a significant jump in cases.
It just seems so obvious to me. Am I missing something?
We locked down properly originally and it looked like we had it under control. Positive cases stayed low during eat out to help out.
We opened schools and a few weeks later the cases rose drastically.
Until last week when they seemed to plateau (following a week after half term). Just after this we see a significant jump in cases.
It just seems so obvious to me. Am I missing something?
It's too early to make that call I would say, there's a slight lag on reporting (up to 2.9 days from test). However this is one days cases. We're only the 2nd week of a lockdown, if someone contracted and starting showing symptoms on day 9-10, then we would only be seeing the positive elements in the reporting now. If we're still seeing a curve upward in terms of cases by Wednesday next week, then that's where I would get worried.
Oh I definitely see lots of positives to working from home, and think it's worth splitting time between going in and not. But I certainly haven't found myself being more productive. I get stuff done, but it's more in my own time and less structured.
Hilarious stuff 
Which in itself is a positive for your own well-being and mental health.
It definitely doesn't feel like the first lockdown in March/April. Obviously it was all new back then and there was a bit more of a sense of 'wow, this is really strange'.
I don't think procrastinating to the point that I'm finishing up menial tasks at 9pm could be considered good for my mental health
But my job is heavily focussed on building a network across multiple sectors/getting out and about so really not tailored to wfh. Completely depends on the line of work people are in.
Absolutely this will happen and it's starting already.
Don't know if it's me, but what are people expecting to be the same? What we saw in March/April was reaction to cases in 6 figures daily, we're no where near that level now and I don't get why people expect the same style of restrictions as we had March/April. The only correlation is the naming convention in the term 'lockdown'.
I just feel there was a bit more goodwill around that time- whatever you may think about clapping for NHS and thank you key worker signs, it just felt people were in it together more, if that makes sense. As I said, that was a situation that was new and a period of adjustment was happening so it's understandable. There's just more of an awkward/irritable mood this time around now we're entering the winter period. Again, it's understandable but I kind of felt there was a bit more solidarity back then; It's gone from 'stay safe' to 'feck this!'
It's the same where I am. People are not scared of it anymore, i think that's the big difference. They're just frustrated, and annoyed we've had 6 months to prepare yet here we are in the same place again.
Some very good news about the UQ developed vaccine that will hopefully be available in the middle of 2021 - results suggest that it works very well with older people
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...y/news-story/414925bd8710ceef76a1fcdf9c2d7b02
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...y/news-story/414925bd8710ceef76a1fcdf9c2d7b02
Supposedly less hospital admissions relative to first wave so far but just seems like there's a whole lot more deaths at work. I think less people are being transferred to ITU as we now know what cohort of patients don't actually do well once intubated so I feel more people are being deemed "ward-ceiling of care" when they reach the point of being very unwell. Certainly a pessimistic topic.
Our hospital now have a strict "Requires a COVID swab result back" before a patient is transferred from A&E to a ward, in the aim of reducing hospital acquired COVID. It's a fantastic idea, the issue is it just slows the bedding situation while in A&E.
Our hospital now have a strict "Requires a COVID swab result back" before a patient is transferred from A&E to a ward, in the aim of reducing hospital acquired COVID. It's a fantastic idea, the issue is it just slows the bedding situation while in A&E.
By the end of 2021??? That so far away...
By the end of 2021??? That so far away...
I think the Australian plan is to vaccinate using the available vaccines from March then start using the UQ vaccine when available.
“It means that this vaccine will potentially be available, subject to the results of those trails, for delivery to Australians early in the third quarter of 2021. Our national goal is to ensure that all Australians who seek to be vaccinated are vaccinated by the end of 2021.”
161k cases in the US? wtf?
And with a daily positivity rate of above 10%, or a 7-day average of 8.7%, worse than at any point since May. It's double the rate of last month, and back in May they were testing 4x fewer people. The hospitalisation rate has now reached its highest on record too: 67k current hospitalised, and it's gone up by almost 1k every day this month. They plateaued at around 60k in the first and second peaks but this one just seems to be marching on up.
Could be the first country to get back to its death total peaks from the 1st wave, while hospitalising many, many more in the process. But then Italy doesn't seem far off that either: their positivity rate is at 25% and daily cases exploded from 4k to 30k in October. It'll be great to get 2020 over with but it'll be a bizarre way to start 2021, possibly in a worse position than ever across big chunks of the world.
Make America great again. World No 1. Go go U!! S!! A!!.. U!! S!! A!!.. U!! S!! A!!
I am by a significant margin but as you say it does depend on the work you do.
Besides the type of work you do, I guess it also depends on your conditions at home. I know of many colleagues with children at home who are screaming bloody murder as they find it hard to take care of their children while working and attending teams meetings.
Has anyone lost their smell through it at all?
Since last night, my smell has faded a lot. I can’t smell much. Only when I get REALLY close to something. Like if my nose is touching it
But for the virus, it would be a complete loss of smell wouldn’t it?
Since last night, my smell has faded a lot. I can’t smell much. Only when I get REALLY close to something. Like if my nose is touching it
But for the virus, it would be a complete loss of smell wouldn’t it?
Unless you’ve got some other very obvious reason for this (e.g. a snotty, bunged up nose) you should definitely get tested.
No, i have friends with the virus who had a reduction in taste and smell, not a complete loss. I would get tested if i were you.
Ah shit. Shows how ignorant i am to all this. Thanks both.
No cold symptoms or blocked nose. Not gone out a lot because i work from home now, and I always wear my mask, so hopefully haven't affected anyone else if i have it.
Sounds like you have it pal. That’s from my own experience. Get tested and isolate.
Could it be related to the mass street celebrations from the election? As well as protests etc
No update from @StuCol who was hospitalised. Hope he’s ok!
It will definitely be a terrible way to start next year. But not all that bizarre. Arguably completely predictable. The winter wave was always likely to hit the northern hemisphere worse than the initial surge.
One of the many shitty things about covid is that it’s incubation period is many multiples longer than influenza so these waves will be much broader in shape. It might even be possible we’re still experiencing the first wave.
I'm trying to understand the UK data, and it seems a bit illogical. The "tests conducted" numbers are at a minimum on the last couple of Mondays, but the positive cases by specimen date show big spikes on Mondays. So doing less tests, but finding more cases, specifically on Mondays? Weird.
This Monday's spike in the "by specimen date" cases is currently a fair bit lower than last Monday, so the big jump in cases reported might just be a case of bad timing for a batch of results coming in. Will have to see what it looks like in when they report today.
Too soon for that, and the vast vast majority of those celebrating were wearing masks. Protests haven’t been shown to lead to spikes previously have they? I thought outdoor transmission was highly unlikely?
Is it not cos there are more tests being done?(sorry, I don't have the figures, just assuming)
Weren't they doing mass testing in some cities also my work place are doing those 'instant' tests where you find out if you currently have it and get the results in an hour or so. I imagine there are many other places doing that which add up. We can do these tests as often as we like, those of us that do it, have it once a week or so so we can feel better about seeing family
Weren't they doing mass testing in some cities also my work place are doing those 'instant' tests where you find out if you currently have it and get the results in an hour or so. I imagine there are many other places doing that which add up. We can do these tests as often as we like, those of us that do it, have it once a week or so so we can feel better about seeing family
Average incubation period is 5-6 days. Allow another day or or to get tested and another to get the result and today’s figures probably do fall slap bang in the middle of election hysteria. It’s true that outdoor gatherings not usually a significant risk but you’d have to wonder how much partying went on indoors at the same time. The BLM protests didn’t have the same celebratory element, so you won’t have had people drinking beers and hanging out in each other’s houses (or going to bars, in states where they were open).
The celebrations came after it was called on Saturday which would only give 5 days to yesterday’s numbers, unless you mean the neckbeards chanting to stop/continue the count?
The indoor celebrations etc would almost certainly be too soon, no?
Jaysus. Didn’t think it took that long to call. Was working off Nov 2nd date. Might the celebrations have started early? It was obvious Drumpf was on his way out long before last Saturday.
Arizona only got confirmed last night!
Things were looking good from around Thursday if I remember right, but it was only once the networks called PA that people really went crazy and the celebrations broke out.
There's a natural lag in data over the weekend. So tests conducted number reported on Monday is actually probably 70-80% of tests done on Friday, Saturday & Sunday (on the basis of a 2.5-2.9 day turnaround on testing). I find it's difficult to judge current position on those days.
As an example, for this Monday's data, the breakdown of positive cases in England was as follows:
377 were from tests taken Sunday (2%)
9,712 from Saturday (51%)
7,125 from Friday (37%)
1,503 from Thursday (8%)
222 from Wednesday (1%)
48 from Tuesday
36 last Monday
I would probably look at week totals to get a better perspective, as the numbers average out better across the week than at certain days.
Just got a call from NHS:
Last day of isolation, I can go home tomorrow. Don't get retested as I can stay positive for up to 6 weeks. But after 10 days I won't be contagious.
Interesting to hear that as I've not heard that before. Anyway I'll be taking their advice and end my isolation.
Last day of isolation, I can go home tomorrow. Don't get retested as I can stay positive for up to 6 weeks. But after 10 days I won't be contagious.
Interesting to hear that as I've not heard that before. Anyway I'll be taking their advice and end my isolation.
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No it can't be because of an increasing testing numbers unfortunately. If the number of cases were going up while the % of cases that come back positive were going down, then we would know it was because we were just reaching out to more people. But in most countries experiencing a spike the positivity rate is going up, so we're missing more cases than we were previously.
If the default positivity rate is about 2%, as per the ONS' figures, then the fact we're seeing a 10% positivity rate suggests for every 1 case we find, we miss 4. That is partly down to the strategy because in the UK you can only request a test if you have symptoms, and we think around 1 in 5 have symptoms.
So the important thing to focus on is the trend, and if we're not seeing the positivity rate going down, then the increase in positive tests can't be explained by the increase in tests administered. We saw the rate drop considerably in most countries during the summer, so we now that theory works out in practice too, we're just not seeing that here.