SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Rajma said:
That’s the confirmed cases. Given the number of mild to asymptotic cases of this virus it’s safe to assume that actual figure is at least x4 times. That would make it around 5M a week, crazy. Herd immunity should come before the full scale vaccine rollout for the US.
Click to expand...
Am I being ignorant in saying that you don’t really get herd immunity without a vaccine? That’s what I have been lead to believe anyway, especially when it is looking more like people can get this twice.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...
Excellent stay well.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...
Glad to see you back Stu!
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...
Excellent, wishing you a speedy and full recovery.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...

Thats great news, what a relief for you and your family.
 
US cases are about on par with France UK Italy per capita. To match some high days of euro countries it would need to be 200-250k
 
Berbasbullet said:
Am I being ignorant in saying that you don’t really get herd immunity without a vaccine? That’s what I have been lead to believe anyway, especially when it is looking more like people can get this twice.
Click to expand...

Not really. Most people do get immunity, but the problem with herd immunity is we don't know how long a previous infection gives you immunity for, it could only be a few months. By the time you get it a second time your immunity could have worn off. Plus, how many people will die getting to herd immunity?
 
Berbasbullet said:
Am I being ignorant in saying that you don’t really get herd immunity without a vaccine? That’s what I have been lead to believe anyway, especially when it is looking more like people can get this twice.
Click to expand...
11101 said:
Not really. Most people do get immunity, but the problem with herd immunity is we don't know how long a previous infection gives you immunity for, it could only be a few months. By the time you get it a second time your immunity could have worn off. Plus, how many people will die getting to herd immunity?
Click to expand...

If you don’t get long term immunity from catching the virus there’s a good chance the same is true of vaccines. At the end of the day, as far as your immune system is concerned, a vaccination is a poor approximation of the infection itself.

Realistically, if/when we ever get anywhere near herd immunity it will be a combination of prior infections and vaccinations. I personally don’t think we’ll get there but we’ll get close enough to get life back to more or less normal.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...
Brilliant news mate! Good to have you back
 
Pogue Mahone said:
If you don’t get long term immunity from catching the virus there’s a good chance the same is true of vaccines. At the end of the day, as far as your immune system is concerned, a vaccination is a poor approximation of the infection itself.

Realistically, if/when we ever get anywhere near herd immunity it will be a combination of prior infections and vaccinations. I personally don’t think we’ll get there but we’ll get close enough to get life back to more or less normal.
Click to expand...
I see! Thank you for the response.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...

Glad you are feeling better mate.
 
StuCol said:
Hey guys. I’m glad to say I’ve been allowed home to recover now, and I’m on the mend. I can admit to being petrified , and seeing things in hospital I’d rather not have seen. But I’m a lucky one. I’ll get better now.
Thanks for all your comments .
Stu
Click to expand...
StuCol 1 - 0 Covid

Welcome back mate.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
If you don’t get long term immunity from catching the virus there’s a good chance the same is true of vaccines. At the end of the day, as far as your immune system is concerned, a vaccination is a poor approximation of the infection itself.
Click to expand...

I know you are being cautious but aren't you being overly pessimistic in that it is likely that the best immune response - antibodies and t-cells - will only be seen in the worst cases of natural covid infection. Although the continuing lack of significant reinfection suggests some protection is common in all identified cases. So it is quite possible that a vaccine will, on overage give a better response as it is likely to be as good or better than getting a bad does of the real thing. That combined with significant t-cell longevity recorded for other human coronavirus is surely cause for optimism?

And I also don't think you can dismiss vaccines as a poor approximation of the real thing in that they are often designed to target the most important part of a virus and also often give a better response than an actual infection even if we have to give a booster to achieve that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thecon...tter-immunity-than-an-actual-infection-145476

Realistically, if/when we ever get anywhere near herd immunity it will be a combination of prior infections and vaccinations. I personally don’t think we’ll get there but we’ll get close enough to get life back to more or less normal.
Click to expand...

Hard to know until we know how effective a vaccine is, how long it protects us for and what the take up rate will be. I note here the government are slowly backing away from predictions. At first they hinted it would be compulsory, then aimed for 95% and now are talking about "everyone" who wants a free vaccine. I hope they reinforce this with some encouragement in the tax system (reduce the Medicare levy for people who are fully immunised for example).
 
Personally, I think the vaccines should be mandatory, but only after the vaccines are proven to be safe. Which means, after all clinical trials have shown it is safe, the first wave may be voluntary, as there are supply issues anyways. But later waves of vaccines should be mandatory once it is shown to be safe even after multiple waves and longer term results are available. Whether some people like it or not, should not even come into the equation as public health trumps whatever stupid delusion some people live under. They should also give green passes to people who are vaccinated so that they can do more activities. Like travel. Or attend live football matches. Etc. Which would help incentivize further the demand for vaccination.
 
tombombadil said:
Personally, I think the vaccines should be mandatory, but only after the vaccines are proven to be safe. Which means, after all clinical trials have shown it is safe, the first wave may be voluntary, as there are supply issues anyways. But later waves of vaccines should be mandatory once it is shown to be safe even after multiple waves and longer term results are available. Whether some people like it or not, should not even come into the equation as public health trumps whatever stupid delusion some people live under. They should also give green passes to people who are vaccinated so that they can do more activities. Like travel. Or attend live football matches. Etc. Which would help incentivize further the demand for vaccination.
Click to expand...

With sentiments like this on the rise it's easy to see why some worry about the lingering after-effects of the pandemic, e.g. a greater desire for authoritarianism and a step closer to totalitarianism.
 
Brwned said:
With sentiments like this on the rise it's easy to see why some worry about the lingering after-effects of the pandemic, e.g. a greater desire for authoritarianism and a step closer to totalitarianism.
Click to expand...

Absolutely this. I'm stunned that anyone would want to live in a country where you're forcibly restrained/sedated whilst someone on the government payroll shoves a needle in your arm. That's before even thinking about how unfair it would be to expect medical professionals to carry this out against people's will.

Alongside the desire amongst certain groups for the use of far greater government force in restricting movement, far greater surveillance of the populace, the celebrating of coercive police practices and the desire to enforce draconian measures that cost other people their lives and livelihood; it makes me very worried about how future governments will harness the power of fear (similar to what happened after 9/11).

It's even more mind boggling as the very same people who want authoritarianism thrust upon them are often massively loathing and distrusting of the current government, despite wanting them to hold sweeping new powers. You'll hear someone talk of the horrors brought upon the poorest in society in one breath and then want that same government to have carte blanche to forcibly inject those same vulnerable people in another. It seems absurd to me.

As a previous poster mentioned in terms of a vaccine a tax incentive would be a far greater and less terrifying thought.
 
Brwned said:
With sentiments like this on the rise it's easy to see why some worry about the lingering after-effects of the pandemic, e.g. a greater desire for authoritarianism and a step closer to totalitarianism.
Click to expand...
It's common to see people mistake public health issues for authoritarianism. E.g. Anti maskers may have the freedom to not wear a mask. But their freedom to not wear a mask is not greater than everyone else's freedom to not be harmed by an anti maskers science denial.

I have absolute freedom to swing my fist. But my freedom to swing it ends at the tip of your nose. If I go further, I am harming you and that is basically assault.

At the end of the day, we have to let the scientists/epidemiologists focus on the science and we need to listen to their advise on public health matters.

Polio vaccines, BCG, Measles vaccines, etc are standard in many countries and have helped eradicate many diseases. We cannot continue to allow public health continue to be eroded on the misguided notion of freedom.
 
finneh said:
Absolutely this. I'm stunned that anyone would want to live in a country where you're forcibly restrained/sedated whilst someone on the government payroll shoves a needle in your arm. That's before even thinking about how unfair it would be to expect medical professionals to carry this out against people's will.

Alongside the desire amongst certain groups for the use of far greater government force in restricting movement, far greater surveillance of the populace, the celebrating of coercive police practices and the desire to enforce draconian measures that cost other people their lives and livelihood; it makes me very worried about how future governments will harness the power of fear (similar to what happened after 9/11).

It's even more mind boggling as the very same people who want authoritarianism thrust upon them are often massively loathing and distrusting of the current government, despite wanting them to hold sweeping new powers. You'll hear someone talk of the horrors brought upon the poorest in society in one breath and then want that same government to have carte blanche to forcibly inject those same vulnerable people in another. It seems absurd to me.

As a previous poster mentioned in terms of a vaccine a tax incentive would be a far greater and less terrifying thought.
Click to expand...
Calm down. Nobody's advocating a single thing you are talking about.
 
finneh said:
Absolutely this. I'm stunned that anyone would want to live in a country where you're forcibly restrained/sedated whilst someone on the government payroll shoves a needle in your arm. That's before even thinking about how unfair it would be to expect medical professionals to carry this out against people's will.

Alongside the desire amongst certain groups for the use of far greater government force in restricting movement, far greater surveillance of the populace, the celebrating of coercive police practices and the desire to enforce draconian measures that cost other people their lives and livelihood; it makes me very worried about how future governments will harness the power of fear (similar to what happened after 9/11).

It's even more mind boggling as the very same people who want authoritarianism thrust upon them are often massively loathing and distrusting of the current government, despite wanting them to hold sweeping new powers. You'll hear someone talk of the horrors brought upon the poorest in society in one breath and then want that same government to have carte blanche to forcibly inject those same vulnerable people in another. It seems absurd to me.

As a previous poster mentioned in terms of a vaccine a tax incentive would be a far greater and less terrifying thought.
Click to expand...

Why are Tories so over the top with everything
 
finneh said:
What do you think a mandatory vaccination program looks like in reality?
Click to expand...
Well there are many options and not all require violence. One example that has been shown in the past with other vaccines, is requiring vaccination in order for children to attend schools. Another example would be, making people pay for mandatory testing if they want to travel to other countries in their country's travel bubble. Or outright banning them from travel even. Another example would be banning people from attending football matches if they are not vaccinated. Another option would be making them pay for their own healthcare should they get infected. These are the vanilla examples. There are more options, like what Pexbo has mentioned. Fines. Or charging these people for breaking the law.

Pexbo said:
Fines or criminal charges?
Click to expand...
Exactly. Definitely options on the table. Not everything has to be violent.
 
Don't we already have mandatory vaccines in children?
 
finneh said:
Absolutely this. I'm stunned that anyone would want to live in a country where you're forcibly restrained/sedated whilst someone on the government payroll shoves a needle in your arm. That's before even thinking about how unfair it would be to expect medical professionals to carry this out against people's will.
Click to expand...

What is the alternative for countries such as mine and @Sarni's , where the vast majority of people will refuse to be vaccinated? Should people be allowed to keep dying en masse because they are incapable of listening to reason?

Also, how will the West cope with millions of non-vaccinated immigrants going to and back from their countries, that are still in a disastrous epydemiological stats?
 
tombombadil said:
It's common to see people mistake public health issues for authoritarianism. E.g. Anti maskers may have the freedom to not wear a mask. But their freedom to not wear a mask is not greater than everyone else's freedom to not be harmed by an anti maskers science denial.

I have absolute freedom to swing my fist. But my freedom to swing it ends at the tip of your nose. If I go further, I am harming you and that is basically assault.

At the end of the day, we have to let the scientists/epidemiologists focus on the science and we need to listen to their advise on public health matters.

Polio vaccines, BCG, Measles vaccines, etc are standard in many countries and have helped eradicate many diseases. We cannot continue to allow public health continue to be eroded on the misguided notion of freedom.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree we need to listen to their advice. I don't think their consensus advice is that we should make vaccination mandatory. Not yet anyway, in part because some of them don't share your ethical and political views and in part because they're still waiting on two critical pieces of evidence - how much does it break chains of transmission and, partly as a result, how many people do we absolutely need to vaccinate.

In any case, my point was less about the proposed strategy, and more about the sentiment informing it.

Whether some people like it or not, should not even come into the equation as public health trumps whatever stupid delusion some people live under.
Click to expand...

I think it would be great if everyone got vaccinated. I expect most people who are offered it cheaply and easily will take it. I don't think we need force to achieve that. Presumably we have different views on the current state of society but inevitably neither of us are right about that, it's just a loosely informed perception.

There are unintended consequences of almost every major policy and in this case yes we want people to take the vaccine to kill the virus, but we also want them to take many of the other voluntary but recommended vaccines further down the line too. How we deal with this vaccine will clearly have an impact on the anti-vaxxer movement, and the public health officials have repeatedly acknowledged the precariousness of the current situation.

If the policy is informed by the notion that we don't care about stupid citizens' delusional notions about freedom then the people you are actively dismissing will read into that much more broadly than this vaccine. There are a lot of those people. I'd suggest a different kind of public health messaging would be as effective and have fewer consequences. The public health officials you suggest we should listen to seem to take a similar position.

Masks are a different issue. Many of them do advocate for it being mandatory and I'd suggest that because the risk of potential opposing reactions and longer term effects is much smaller.
 
Last edited:
Pogue Mahone said:
Where, specifically, is this more than a likely outcome?
Click to expand...
Where I live. Ok, holding people sedated you obviously wrote to exaggerate, but I am pretty sure that there will be countries that will have no choice but to make the shot mandatory as in you take it or go to jail mandatory.
 
Hound Dog said:
Where I live. Ok, holding people sedated you obviously wrote to exaggerate, but I am pretty sure that there will be countries that will have no choice but to make the shot mandatory as in you take it or go to jail mandatory.
Click to expand...

I was quoting @finneh. It was him that came up with that insanely paranoid scenario. It’s interesting the ludicrous extremes that libertarian types will jump to when discussing stuff like this.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
At the risk of prompting Jose memes, how is Sweden doing now anyway? I’m reading about a surge in cases? Are they hitting the hospitals yet? Any talk of some sort of lockdown?
Click to expand...
They have 150 people on ICU, highest in April was 560 (lowest was 12 in September). They close bars at 10pm, advocate WFH and not visiting care homes. Also some other stricter local restrictions. Their strategy doesn't differ from other countries. Tegnell understood in around June that he had misscalculated (as I repeatedly said in this thread) by around 3-4-fold and has since repeatedly said that herd immunity is not a sensible goal.

On the other hand they don't recommend mask usage, and their testing is fine but tracing and quarantine systems are a joke. So they do 5-10 times worse than Finland, even with much higher immunity from spring. Their situation is still better than most of the Europe, but worse than any other Nordic country.
 
...which explains why he hasn’t posted in this thread since September 25th.
unless he was thread banned, in which case that’s an explanation too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.