SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Brwned said:
Or if you read the Daily Mail. Shameless bastards, but very effective communicators.

There's nothing inflated about the UK's numbers. The government have been very open about it for months. It was discussed openly in the media when they changed from 60 days to 28 days, with arguments against the change for the same reasons as you: it'll miss a few. But the PHE did some sound analysis on why the current method is the best balance. They still count 60 days on top.

The reality is @SiRed, we know the figures aren't inflated because of the excess death figures. Have a look at them. During the period where we had a legitimately huge number of covid deaths, so big it led you to say this yourself...
...the excess deaths figures peaked right along with it. These people dying from covid were not being misreported, we had thousands of people dying every week that wouldn't have died otherwise, regardless of what they've put on the death certificate.

Now, there are fewer deaths. That's true of excess mortality, and that's true of deaths reported by covid from PHE. There's no misreporting there, no inflating of the numbers, most people that die of covid within 28 days of contracting it would not have died in the short-term if they hadn't contracted it.

But the papers are drawing your attention to the wrong figures - it's not about how many people are dying now, which is already much worse than they're portraying, it's how many will be dying if the cases continue to spread at this rate. That number could double in a fortnight, and double again in another fortnight, so by the end of November we're within the realms of 1,000 covid deaths a day, worse than the first peak, if not for restrictions. If a national lockdown is not a plausible option this time, then it's not inconceivable more people could die than last time.

And you said yourself just this week that if that many people are dying, of course we need to lockdown! Now you're saying it's no big deal, not only do we not need a lockdown, but let's open everything up?! The virus is spreading more quickly than we can manage even when we've put the worst-hit places under conditions very similar to the first lockdown. You don't need to do complicated maths to see that if we hadn't applied any restrictions since August, more people would be dying now than they were then, and many more would be infected.

A virus that spreads this quickly can't travel freely in an open society without killing hundreds of thousands of people. More than you would have in any given year from all risk factors combined. It just isn't true to say we're inflating the figures, it's not that big a deal, let's open her back up and work through the worst of it. The worst of it is worse than anything you've experienced in your lifetime. What you're hearing is that in some regions, at some point in time, things aren't so bad now while they were terrible in the first wave. But in other regions things are terrible now, and weren't so bad in the first wave. What you need is to look at the wider picture, and for that you can look beyond the UK to see where we might be heading:



It is an undeniable fact that if we let this thing spread uncontrollably, the best health systems in the world would collapse. And we don't have the best health system in the world. Most average health systems are struggling to keep things together even with these absolutely absurd restrictions on normal life.
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Youre right - i did say that. I have a tendency to let whatever i am thinking of at the time to alter my feelings towards it all. Im struggling a bit to be honest, mentally.
Youre posts on this thread always provide clear and concise information that brings me back to a more 'less tainted' perspective as i look at the pandemic situation so I thank you for that. I probably need to have a few days away from this thread, and newspapers. Follow the rules but try to forget about whats going on outside. Hard though!
 
SiRed said:
Youre right - i did say that. I have a tendency to let whatever i am thinking of at the time to alter my feelings towards it all. Im struggling a bit to be honest, mentally.
Youre posts on this thread always provide clear and concise information that brings me back to a more 'less tainted' perspective as i look at the pandemic situation so I thank you for that. I probably need to have a few days away from this thread, and newspapers. Follow the rules but try to forget about whats going on outside. Hard though!
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Great advice. Keep meaning to do that myself. Difficult to stick to it but would be very good for the head.
 
SiRed said:
The stats are definatley being 'massaged' lets say.
If you die from any regular death but you have had Covid at some point in the last 28 days - then you are logged as being killed as a Covid death, which is ridiculous.
Lockdowns inevitably take the pressure away from the NHS but having spoke to an ICU nurse, its not even 10% as busy as it was a few months back - despite what stats are being thrown out there.

We are all now well aware of the risks, along with the precautions to take to minimise your own personal risk - I think now is the time for the government to say - ''over to you guys, do as you please'' except those at risk of dying from it, diabetics and so on.... they must be told to shield. Might not seem fair, but the chances of your average Joe needing a ventilator is incredibly slim. He will just be a tad poorly for a week or 2 and in many cases, will be well enough to work from home, whereas an asthmatic will almost certainly need the care.
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I'm hearing the exact opposite from my friend who is an ICU nurse in Bolton. She says it's awful at the moment - too many patients and not enough staff as so many are having to self isolate, but in April she said it was unexpectedly quiet.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s not good at all. Any idea how many discharges? i.e. how many in hospital this time yesterday?
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Yesterday's figures for patients in hospital was 9,520 - so works out at a net increase of 788, so looks like 616 were discharged / otherwise 'left' hospital.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Ok, cool. It definitely feels very speculative, even to someone like me with very little clue about the science behind it. I do think the message is useful and it’s well presented. So overall probably a good piece of journalism?
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The message it conveys is good, but it should not focus so much on the absolute numbers.

I had a look at the model and I may be wrong but it looks like one large excel sheet where they've collected data, played around with some numbers (based on experience, historical and present data) as best as possible and got some results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Pj6ytf-RpPMlJ6aXFg3PrIQBbQ/edit#gid=519189277
 
decorativeed said:
I'm hearing the exact opposite from my friend who is an ICU nurse in Bolton. She says it's awful at the moment - too many patients and not enough staff as so many are having to self isolate, but in April she said it was unexpectedly quiet.
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My other half works at Trafford, and they have had to take further wards for more covid patients this week. Definite increase in admissions.
 
SiRed said:
Youre right - i did say that. I have a tendency to let whatever i am thinking of at the time to alter my feelings towards it all. Im struggling a bit to be honest, mentally.
Youre posts on this thread always provide clear and concise information that brings me back to a more 'less tainted' perspective as i look at the pandemic situation so I thank you for that. I probably need to have a few days away from this thread, and newspapers. Follow the rules but try to forget about whats going on outside. Hard though!
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:lol: yeah you nailed it there! Hadn't even thought about it that way but that really is the key balancing act most of us - the fortunately uninfected - have to deal with day-to-day. That and the risks of going into work and maybe bringing the infection back to your family vs. not paying the bills.

To a degree it's useful to be informed and gut-check your feeling against the evidence of the time, but doing that without sending yourself down a mental black hole is fecking hard alright! I've fallen down that whole myself this last week, no emotional trauma yet but definitely close to an all-consuming focus, much more so than before. I expected a second wave but I expected it to be easier to manage, because we're legitimately better at managing it in hospitals now. Hadn't quite considered it would be spreading much more wildly. The fact they're saying in France they're expecting it to be worse, and France's response last time was considered a legitimate catastrophe...that's got me on a ledge alright. But I think you've just pulled me out of that one, so maybe we helped each other out! Sláinte :D
 
decorativeed said:
I'm hearing the exact opposite from my friend who is an ICU nurse in Bolton. She says it's awful at the moment - too many patients and not enough staff as so many are having to self isolate, but in April she said it was unexpectedly quiet.
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Same in Italy. The first time round everybody was terrified of hospitals and people were staying away unless they really had to go. In the news today they are saying there are huge waits in A&E, sometimes up to 48 hours for minor stuff. People are going to hospital as normal again, and they are worried about adding to that with a huge rise in Covid admissions over the next few weeks. Wards are being reorganised and field hospitals reopened in preparation.
 
I don't understand this whole "died within 28 days of positive test" means that the results are inflated argument. An average person has a 0.009% (28/81,1x365.25) chance of dying within the next 28 days, yet the people tested with covid have 5.1% chance of dying (49955/965.340).

Other causes of people dying with it are negligible.
 
Abizzz said:
I don't understand this whole "died within 28 days of positive test" means that the results are inflated argument. An average person has a 0.009% (28/81,1x365.25) chance of dying within the next 28 days, yet the people tested with covid have 5.1% chance of dying (49955/965.340).

Other causes of people dying with it are negligible.
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Wait. I'm not onboard with the whole "died within 28 days registered as covid = inflated numbers", but where are your 50k deaths by 965k cases to = 5% mortality from? Because that's much much higher than the other IFR estimates that are generally below 1.0% nowadays.
 
MTF said:
Wait. I'm not onboard with the whole "died within 28 days registered as covid = inflated numbers", but where are your 50k deaths by 965k cases to = 5% mortality from? Because that's much much higher than the other IFR estimates that are generally below 1.0% nowadays.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_Kingdom_medical_cases_chart

I was lazy and just googled it for Britain. This is the source google states. Having given it another thought we don't know how many of those who died died within 28 days, but I don't think it matters that much. (I used the average life expectancy of Britain as well, 81,16 years)
 
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SiRed said:
The stats are definatley being 'massaged' lets say.
If you die from any regular death but you have had Covid at some point in the last 28 days - then you are logged as being killed as a Covid death, which is ridiculous.
Lockdowns inevitably take the pressure away from the NHS but having spoke to an ICU nurse, its not even 10% as busy as it was a few months back - despite what stats are being thrown out there.

We are all now well aware of the risks, along with the precautions to take to minimise your own personal risk - I think now is the time for the government to say - ''over to you guys, do as you please'' except those at risk of dying from it, diabetics and so on.... they must be told to shield. Might not seem fair, but the chances of your average Joe needing a ventilator is incredibly slim. He will just be a tad poorly for a week or 2 and in many cases, will be well enough to work from home, whereas an asthmatic will almost certainly need the care.
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maybe you need to stop reading Facebook. There’s a pattern to your posts in this thread.
Post something verging on wummish, have it debunked, disappear for a few days to return with some other nonsense. Rinse and repeat
 
Brwned said:
Or if you read the Daily Mail. Shameless bastards, but very effective communicators.

There's nothing inflated about the UK's numbers. The government have been very open about it for months. It was discussed openly in the media when they changed from 60 days to 28 days, with arguments against the change for the same reasons as you: it'll miss a few. But the PHE did some sound analysis on why the current method is the best balance. They still count 60 days on top.

The reality is @SiRed, we know the figures aren't inflated because of the excess death figures. Have a look at them. During the period where we had a legitimately huge number of covid deaths, so big it led you to say this yourself...
...the excess deaths figures peaked right along with it. These people dying from covid were not being misreported, we had thousands of people dying every week that wouldn't have died otherwise, regardless of what they've put on the death certificate.

Now, there are fewer deaths. That's true of excess mortality, and that's true of deaths reported by covid from PHE. There's no misreporting there, no inflating of the numbers, most people that die of covid within 28 days of contracting it would not have died in the short-term if they hadn't contracted it.

But the papers are drawing your attention to the wrong figures - it's not about how many people are dying now, which is already much worse than they're portraying, it's how many will be dying if the cases continue to spread at this rate. That number could double in a fortnight, and double again in another fortnight, so by the end of November we're within the realms of 1,000 covid deaths a day, worse than the first peak, if not for restrictions. If a national lockdown is not a plausible option this time, then it's not inconceivable more people could die than last time.

And you said yourself just this week that if that many people are dying, of course we need to lockdown! Now you're saying it's no big deal, not only do we not need a lockdown, but let's open everything up?! The virus is spreading more quickly than we can manage even when we've put the worst-hit places under conditions very similar to the first lockdown. You don't need to do complicated maths to see that if we hadn't applied any restrictions since August, more people would be dying now than they were then, and many more would be infected.

A virus that spreads this quickly can't travel freely in an open society without killing hundreds of thousands of people. More than you would have in any given year from all risk factors combined. It just isn't true to say we're inflating the figures, it's not that big a deal, let's open her back up and work through the worst of it. The worst of it is worse than anything you've experienced in your lifetime. What you're hearing is that in some regions, at some point in time, things aren't so bad now while they were terrible in the first wave. But in other regions things are terrible now, and weren't so bad in the first wave. What you need is to look at the wider picture, and for that you can look beyond the UK to see where we might be heading:



It is an undeniable fact that if we let this thing spread uncontrollably, the best health systems in the world would collapse. And we don't have the best health system in the world. Most average health systems are struggling to keep things together even with these absolutely absurd restrictions on normal life.
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Coming from you, who I’ve thought has given a very balanced, researched view in this thread, that’s a powerful post.

alas I think it will be in one ear and out the other.
 
SiRed said:
Youre right - i did say that. I have a tendency to let whatever i am thinking of at the time to alter my feelings towards it all. Im struggling a bit to be honest, mentally.
Youre posts on this thread always provide clear and concise information that brings me back to a more 'less tainted' perspective as i look at the pandemic situation so I thank you for that. I probably need to have a few days away from this thread, and newspapers. Follow the rules but try to forget about whats going on outside. Hard though!
Click to expand...
My last post may have been a harsh reply to you, I apologize. I have 2 young boys myself and we’ve been cocooning since March so the idea of people running free doing whatever really irritates me as it will keep this thing going around in circles for god knows how long. A virus doesn’t have legs, it needs fresh hosts to spread so the idea of people doing whatever.. well let’s just say I’d see no end in sight till health services can’t cope and hundreds of thousands die or are left with serious long term side effects.
Every country is going to be in serious financial difficulties so from my simplistic point of view, I don’t think we should worry about the long term financial abilities of countries. They will go on.
short term yes, job losses etc but we will recover.
anyways I think @Brwned said it all better than me but good advice to, stay away from papers and FB etc for a detox. I’m currently detoxing FB for similar reasons
 
Abizzz said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_Kingdom_medical_cases_chart

I was lazy and just googled it for Britain. This is the source google states. Having given it another thought we don't know how many of those who died died within 28 days, but I don't think it matters that much. (I used the average life expectancy of Britain as well, 81,16 years)
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Oh ok, got it. Yeah the CFR is 5% for the UK per what you sent... it seems to be mainly that early on in most countries an absolute huge number of infections went undetected when tests were mainly limited to hospitals. But just so we don't get things confused, the IFR is generally estimated to be below 1.0%, or at most thereabouts. So there's not really a 5% probability of dying if one contracts covid.
 
golden_blunder said:
My last post may have been a harsh reply to you, I apologize. I have 2 young boys myself and we’ve been cocooning since March so the idea of people running free doing whatever really irritates me as it will keep this thing going around in circles for god knows how long. A virus doesn’t have legs, it needs fresh hosts to spread so the idea of people doing whatever.. well let’s just say I’d see no end in sight till health services can’t cope and hundreds of thousands die or are left with serious long term side effects.
Every country is going to be in serious financial difficulties so from my simplistic point of view, I don’t think we should worry about the long term financial abilities of countries. They will go on.
short term yes, job losses etc but we will recover.
anyways I think @Brwned said it all better than me but good advice to, stay away from papers and FB etc for a detox. I’m currently detoxing FB for similar reasons
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That is just several degrees too simplistic. Every recession has significant negative impacts on society, most notably an increase in poverty, but also often political instability that can lead to internal or external conflict. And this one is setting up to be the biggest one since 1929.
 
MTF said:
Oh ok, got it. Yeah the CFR is 5% for the UK per what you sent... it seems to be mainly that early on in most countries an absolute huge number of infections went undetected when tests were mainly limited to hospitals. But just so we don't get things confused, the IFR is generally estimated to be below 1.0%, or at most thereabouts. So there's not really a 5% probability of dying if one contracts covid.
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Yeah, you're right, that seems to be the current scientific consensus (1.0%). I probably should have phrased that differently, or looked into it more than what I was capable of doing at the top of my head (just to check the theory for myself). I'll probably stick to the CFR though because it's easier to grasp for those who are convinced the numbers are inflated. (and myself)
 
MTF said:
That is just several degrees too simplistic. Every recession has significant negative impacts on society, most notably an increase in poverty, but also often political instability that can lead to internal or external conflict. And this one is setting up to be the biggest one since 1929.
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I know it’s simplistic, purely from a financial point of view every country will be in the same boat. I am off course not taking into account the things you note
 
golden_blunder said:
I know it’s simplistic, purely from a financial point of view every country will be in the same boat. I am off course not taking into account the things you note
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Yes, the majority of countries are/will be in pretty rough situations. But that tends to make outcomes worse, not better. It might feel like crap to be the one country in a recession while everyone else booms, but in a practical sense it makes it all the more likely in a globalized economy that exactly the strong activity in other places and willingness of investors to take risk can help a country going through an individual recession to be pulled out. Everyone in recession risks become a negative feedback loop, which is part of what happened in the 1930s.
 
prateik said:
I'm guessing it wont include people dying of obvious other causes..
Deaths lag infection by several weeks .. 2-8 weeks is what I remember reading.. There was someone here who posted data from the recent cases in Italy and it said the average gap between infection and death was about 38 days.

I am not sure how the UK is counting it.. but if they arent counting any deaths after 28 days of infection as Covid deaths, then they are almost certainly missing a few..

And you can always look at the excess death data.. There is no reason to believe the death figure is being inflated. Unless you have a large collection of tinfoil hats.
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Agree with all of the above. I’ve heard many arguments about doctors putting covid in death certificate even if death is from other causes but that wouldn’t explain excess deaths. I’ve had people trying to convince me that excess deaths are purely from lack of medical assistance on other issues due to hospitals only caring about covid patients but again, this cannot explain the magnitude of excess deaths.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


@Wibble

Something we were discussing last week.
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I really hope governments are going to get these manufactured in huge quantities. While it is possible that a handful f countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT most of the world is now at a point where a vaccine and multiple other approaches are required to get things quickly on the rod to (more) normal. With Remdesivir not reducing mortality we really need a treatment as well as a vaccine and Peter Doherty thinks is is doable with costs reducing with production on scale - likened to making and album and distributing it digitally - high initial cost but unit cost vastly reducing the more copies you make.

We just need to hope that the powers that been see the need and act quickly.
 
Wibble said:
I really hope governments are going to get these manufactured in huge quantities. While it is possible that a handful f countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT most of the world is now at a point where a vaccine and multiple other approaches are required to get things quickly on the rod to (more) normal. With Remdesivir not reducing mortality we really need a treatment as well as a vaccine and Peter Doherty thinks is is doable with costs reducing with production on scale - likened to making and album and distributing it digitally - high initial cost but unit cost vastly reducing the more copies you make.

We just need to hope that the powers that been see the need and act quickly.
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I just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.

Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own! ;)
 
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Newest data from the South Carolina Dept of Health.



Parents are putting pressure on school districts to go back 5 days per week at full capacity right now.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.

Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own! ;)
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Agreed, any deterioration-preventing-prophylactic who's mode of administration is intravenous is an instant non-starter
Intramuscular or a subcut would be a maybe.

Was reading more about the results here - https://investor.regeneron.com/news...9-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates
Some of the findings are statistically significant but my god it just seems so clinically far away from anything feasible or relevant
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.

Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own! ;)
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Nothing to do with faith. The Australian plan is to mass vaccinate before opening international borders (barring bubble countries like NZ). We have started manufacturing the Oxford vaccine and have one of our own which will hopefully ready by mid 2021 and is planned to be manufactures in huge quantities - 100 million doses apparently. In our case monoclonal antibodies would be to deal with outbreaks as we open up although using it as a prophylactic would be much harder. In worse hit countries I think they could play an important role in reducing the severity of symptoms of severe cases which would potentially prevent the health system collapsing. No one thing will be the solution so I think we need to use all approaches that work. Oh and I missed a "potentially" out of that quoted sentence.

In Australia my main concern is that the Federal government have so far been forced to not act like the evil clowns they are by the states - once we get a vaccine they will be champing at the bit to open up too quickly.
 
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Stack said:
A little positivity with respect to immunity.
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I've always been of this opinion that the prospects of long term immunity are quite good. Plus, I think the importance of antibodies in the immune response as predictors for future infections are overstated.

It is widely accepted that memory cells are a key indicator of immunity. I like that he said that antibodies are a sign of the immune system failure, which is true because it means that the cellular arm has failed to eradicate the virus before it can infect numerous cells so it is up to the antibodies to slow the ability of the virus to infect cells. The REACT study seems to back this conclusion as the biggest drop in antibodies is seen in asymptomatic patients, which implies that a different part of the immune system has dealt with the virus.

Simply explained as well why the first SARS was so much easier to contain than this one and how cross immunity gives great hope to there being long lasting immunity overall to this virus. 100% of the T-cells from SARS could recognise the current SARS and respond to it! I'm not just optimistic anymore, I'm certain of immunity.
 
I know of someone in Dublin who house shares with a guy with some health issues which includes MS. The latter guy has tested positive. As part of the survey thing he asked the person from the HSE what should he do, does he need a test?
He was told no. Go to work as normal.
he shares a house with the guy who is positive and kinda minds him a bit, shares the bathroom and kitchen etc. How can he not get it?
Yet he’s told to go back to work. No wonder it’s still spreading
 
Here’s what’s happening in the batshit, Aryan, thumper, NW US state of Idaho right now...



Imagine being the second most powerful person in a state & aggressively stating with stupidity that the pandemic is a hoax after dealing with it for seven months? Imagine being so aggressively ignorant that you believe it?
 
Stanley Road said:
I'd really like to know how people are catching the virus still, i'm blown away.

Theres a guy in this thread whos whole family have it. I mean, wtf
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By believing elected officials like the ones I referenced in the post immediately above this one. This is just an idiot who happens to be second in command in one state in my country saying this, I am certain there are tens of thousands of politicians like her around the world today who have said / are saying the same thing.
 
Compton22 said:
I've always been of this opinion that the prospects of long term immunity are quite good. Plus, I think the importance of antibodies in the immune response as predictors for future infections are overstated.

It is widely accepted that memory cells are a key indicator of immunity. I like that he said that antibodies are a sign of the immune system failure, which is true because it means that the cellular arm has failed to eradicate the virus before it can infect numerous cells so it is up to the antibodies to slow the ability of the virus to infect cells. The REACT study seems to back this conclusion as the biggest drop in antibodies is seen in asymptomatic patients, which implies that a different part of the immune system has dealt with the virus.

Simply explained as well why the first SARS was so much easier to contain than this one and how cross immunity gives great hope to there being long lasting immunity overall to this virus. 100% of the T-cells from SARS could recognise the current SARS and respond to it! I'm not just optimistic anymore, I'm certain of immunity.
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Immunity once recoverred from infection or immunity from vaccines etc?
 
This nicely sums up what we now know about the different stages of COVID-19 disease. Information that we did not have 6 months ago and is now informing better treatment. This will soon be published as a preprint.

 
Tony Babangida said:
This nicely sums up what we now know about the different stages of COVID-19 disease. Information that we did not have 6 months ago and is now informing better treatment. This will soon be published as a preprint.

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That is brilliant. Thanks for sharing.
 
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