SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Stanley Road said:
I'd really like to know how people are catching the virus still, i'm blown away.

Theres a guy in this thread whos whole family have it. I mean, wtf
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It's a very effective spreader. I know somebody in Switzerland who went to a dinner with 12 people (perfectly legal) and 3 of them caught it, including my friend. Maybe from one of the group, maybe from somebody else there. Either way, infecting 25% in the space of an hour or two is pretty efficient. Of course it's going to spread around everybody in a household.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Which would also cost 50x less and support parents following various tiers of restrictions.
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Ah yes but what will ensuring that children are well fed therefore able to concentrate on their studies therefore able to improve their academic performance therefore have the chance to fulfil their potential and contribute positively to society do for the economy?
 
Pexbo said:
Ah yes but what will ensuring that children are well fed therefore able to concentrate on their studies therefore able to improve their academic performance therefore have the chance to fulfil their potential and contribute positively to society do for the economy?
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Who cares. These MPs wont be in government by then.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Eat out to help out. Genius.


Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285
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calodo2003 said:
Staggeringly shocking that this couldn’t have been foreseen.
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It does seem mental with hindsight but life felt very different in the summer. Loads of people - including yours truly - had started to convince themselves that a large nationwide second wave was easily avoided with intermittent local measures only. So in that context it’s kind of understandable that the government would look for a way to kick-start a paralysed economy. Obviously, we were all in denial. We know that now. But sunshine fuelled optimism is a hell of a drug.
 
Theres been more than a couple of posters in this thread saying how they are struggling and mentioning some of the horrible things they are going through, just wanted to take a moment to say that I think about each one of you every day. Even though we have never actually met, the caf has been a constant in my life for a long time through good and bad times, and I think of you all as mates, we sometimes disagree, we sometimes fall out, but at the end of the day we are all human beings, and I'd say generally decent ones at that. Theres not really anything I can do to help, (if there IS then let me know!) But I'm here if anyone needs to vent, or just chat shit. Stay lucky all xx
 
11101 said:
Half of them look like the overweight diabetics the virus will be licking its lips at, the other half look like Millwall fans who are upset they haven't been able to have a fight for the last 6 months.
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All of them on the dole living in government provided houses too I'd bet.

PC out the window they should be rounded up and sent to a fecking work camp for 2 years
 


Crazy scenes in Paris apparently, yesterday before their lockdown started. Wouldn't wanna be there either for the entirety of it to be honest.

Belgium deciding this afternoon which new measures will be put into place, but it's almost certainly looking like it's gonna be a new lockdown for 4 to 8 weeks. Can't see anything opening up before Christmas and even that will be a tricky timeline. Our government can go to hell for how long they've let this gone on before interfering. Bunch of incapable cnuts.
 
Pexbo said:
Ah yes but what will ensuring that children are well fed therefore able to concentrate on their studies therefore able to improve their academic performance therefore have the chance to fulfil their potential and contribute positively to society do for the economy?
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Flunk out to help out?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It does seem mental with hindsight but life felt very different in the summer. Loads of people - including yours truly - had started to convince themselves that a large nationwide second wave was easily avoided with intermittent local measures only. So in that context it’s kind of understandable that the government would look for a way to kick-start a paralysed economy. Obviously, we were all in denial. We know that now. But sunshine fuelled optimism is a hell of a drug.
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At the time there were plenty of critics. Including myself. The government are privy to daily scientific updates from sage, I'm sure they were not on board with this scheme either.
 
Stanley Road said:
I still go to the office some days. My mrs is a nurse and has covid patients, we dont have it. The basic rules seemed to work during lockdown and now the cases are worse than ever. It must be coming from house visits surely.
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We don’t know what they all work as, or any details of their routine. They might just be unlucky. I don’t think we should assume that everyone is breaking quarantine rules
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
At the time there were plenty of critics. Including myself. The government are privy to daily scientific updates from sage, I'm sure they were not on board with this scheme either.
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You were a critic of that policy because you are a critic of almost every government policy, almost by default. That's the easiest position to take in a scenario like this. Almost everything happening right now is bad, and the people in charge of this bad scenario are people you hate, so it's very easy to blame all of those bad things on those bad people. The facts have to be incredibly inconvenient for you to assume anything else. Take for example this idea, that anyone pointing out flaws in the contact tracing system is making a deeply illogical point...
Fluctuation0161 said:
Totally agree.

I cant understand how anyone is blaming the concept of test and trace instead of the UK's terrible handling of this pandemic. It is beyond logic.
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Yet here we have an independent expert, someone who has no vested interest in the UK's handling of the subject and someone who is currently involved in the processes being discussed in a country who knows how to handle these things, saying exactly what you deem to be beyond logic.




The test&trace system is not built to process thousands of new coronavirus cases per day, so when you get to that level, it will fail. That's not a failure of government execution it's a limitation of the system, with the resources typically applied to it in normal countries with different governments. The government's failure was in letting it get to that point.

You couldn't even engage with the premise of that because you interpreted it through the lens of "this is a bad situation, the government are bad, ergo the government are responsible for this bad situation and anyone disagreeing is clearly an idiot or a defender of the government". The reality we're living in is much more complex than anyone would like it to be, and your consistent approach to dealing with all problems is more convenient but not better. It just allows you to come back to the things that went wrong and say "see, told you so" while never having to do the opposite, largely because most of the things have gone wrong, even in countries that don't have these people in charge.
 
Brwned said:
You were a critic of that policy because you are a critic of almost every government policy, almost by default. That's the easiest position to take in a scenario like this. Almost everything happening right now is bad, and the people in charge of this bad scenario are people you hate, so it's very easy to blame all of those bad things on those bad people. The facts have to be incredibly inconvenient for you to assume anything else. Take for example this idea, that anyone pointing out flaws in the contact tracing system is making a deeply illogical point...
Yet here we have an independent expert, someone who has no vested interest in the UK's handling of the subject and someone who is currently involved in the processes being discussed in a country who knows how to handle these things, saying exactly what you deem to be beyond logic.




The test&trace system is not built to process thousands of new coronavirus cases per day, so when you get to that level, it will fail. That's not a failure of government execution it's a limitation of the system, with the resources typically applied to it in normal countries with different governments. The government's failure was in letting it get to that point.

You couldn't even engage with the premise of that because you interpreted it through the lens of "this is a bad situation, the government are bad, ergo the government are responsible for this bad situation and anyone disagreeing is clearly an idiot or a defender of the government". The reality we're living in is much more complex than anyone would like it to be, and your consistent approach to dealing with all problems is more convenient but not better. It just allows you to come back to the things that went wrong and say "see, told you so" while never having to do the opposite, largely because most of the things have gone wrong, even in countries that don't have these people in charge.
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Firstly, I am a critic of BAD government policy, yes. For example, you will find my praise of the government's inital 80% furlough scheme if you care to trawl through past posts. So don't start off with an incorrect premise.

Eat out to help out during a global pandemic was so obviously a terrible idea, you needed your head in cloud cuckoo land to have not realised at the time. Again, I posted about this at the time, as you will find in my past posts.

As for test and trace, the government has outsourced this to a private company for £12 billion with no penalty clauses in the contract for missing targets, with a leader who has a proven track record of incompetent head (Dido Harding), who also happens to be married to a government MP and has many links with the current government. For context, this £12 billion given to friends of the government is more than the £7bn we spend on the NHS annually.

For this reason, test and trace was a clusterfeck in the UK from day 1, before the cases even rose to unmanageable levels. In fact, because it was never fit for purpose, it has undoubtably contributed to our high numbers now.
 
golden_blunder said:
We don’t know what they all work as, or any details of their routine. They might just be unlucky. I don’t think we should assume that everyone is breaking quarantine rules
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Assumptions is all we have unfortunately. It could be the amount of testing being done today, i dont know. but it's hard to understand that the rules which brought daily cases to zero now dont seem to work. When i read stories of police breaking up parties of 300+ people all over the country i can only assume that this sort of behavior does not help the cause. Busses are empty, trains are empty, pubs and restaurants are shut and offices are empty. it seems almost impossible to catch.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Firstly, I am a critic of BAD government policy, yes. For example, you will find my praise of the government's inital 80% furlough scheme if you care to trawl through past posts. So don't start off with an incorrect premise.

Eat out to help out during a global pandemic was so obviously a terrible idea, you needed your head in cloud cuckoo land to have not realised at the time. Again, I posted about this at the time, as you will find in my past posts.

As for test and trace, the government has outsourced this to a private company for £12 billion with no penalty clauses in the contract for missing targets, with a leader who has a proven track record of incompetent head (Dido Harding), who also happens to be married to a government MP and has many links with the current government. For context, this £12 billion given to friends of the government is more than the £7bn we spend on the NHS annually.

For this reason, test and trace was a clusterfeck in the UK from day 1, before the cases even rose to unmanageable levels. In fact, because it was never fit for purpose, it has undoubtably contributed to our high numbers now.
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I did say "almost", for that reason. By your definition, almost all of the government's policies have been bad. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that collective assessment, I'm just pointing out how convenient that is in a situation where almost all government policies have led to bad outcomes, even from governments you are much closer to ideologically.

I agree with the assessment of the flaws in the test and trace system. I agreed with them at the time. It doesn't change the fact that the limitations on test and trace that I pointed out, and you dismissed, are very real. There is no way that a test and trace system could possibly deal well with 1,000+ cases per day. That's what the expert said, just days after I did, and I only said it at the time because a whole host of experts not only said it, but provided evidence for it. Yet there you were classifying that view as something beyond logic. Do you agree with this expert opinion, on reflection? Or at least that he came to a logical assessment, even if you disagree with it?

acnumber9 said:
The Governments failure was in not having it up and running when lockdown ended and therefore missing the chance to have it working effectively.
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That was one of their many failures, undoubtedly. I think we have good reason to question the importance of that particular failure given the experience of e.g. Czech Republic, who had it up and running earlier, but cases started to rise rapidly because of things that had nothing to do with contact tracing, and when it did, their contact tracing system didn't work very well. It's a tool that helps, but there are much more influential tools that the government didn't use or misused that played a much larger role in where we are now.
 
Brwned said:
You were a critic of that policy because you are a critic of almost every government policy, almost by default. That's the easiest position to take in a scenario like this. Almost everything happening right now is bad, and the people in charge of this bad scenario are people you hate, so it's very easy to blame all of those bad things on those bad people. The facts have to be incredibly inconvenient for you to assume anything else. Take for example this idea, that anyone pointing out flaws in the contact tracing system is making a deeply illogical point...
Yet here we have an independent expert, someone who has no vested interest in the UK's handling of the subject and someone who is currently involved in the processes being discussed in a country who knows how to handle these things, saying exactly what you deem to be beyond logic.




The test&trace system is not built to process thousands of new coronavirus cases per day, so when you get to that level, it will fail. That's not a failure of government execution it's a limitation of the system, with the resources typically applied to it in normal countries with different governments. The government's failure was in letting it get to that point.

You couldn't even engage with the premise of that because you interpreted it through the lens of "this is a bad situation, the government are bad, ergo the government are responsible for this bad situation and anyone disagreeing is clearly an idiot or a defender of the government". The reality we're living in is much more complex than anyone would like it to be, and your consistent approach to dealing with all problems is more convenient but not better. It just allows you to come back to the things that went wrong and say "see, told you so" while never having to do the opposite, largely because most of the things have gone wrong, even in countries that don't have these people in charge.
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I’m not sure how using an explanation of the limitations of the existing test and trace system which was designed for meningitis is a good excuse for why a purpose built test and trace system which was allocated £12bn in funds to be developed for a virus which at D&D day zero was already recording thousands of new cases per day.

If it was already known this system wouldn't cope with the numbers and would be effectively useless then why on earth did they allocate £12bn for it?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
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I cannot decide whether I like Prof Balloux or not. A lot of the stuff he tweets is much needed rubbishing of crap science. But he also seems to hold himself above many of the scientists making a concerted effort to get track and trace working in the UK (which has massively failed to be fair). Didn’t he also sign Great Barrington? Anyway I think overall he’s a good voice for making sure you don’t become a lockdown evangelist without considering all of the negative effects.
 
Brwned said:
I did say "almost", for that reason. By your definition, almost all of the government's policies have been bad. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that collective assessment, I'm just pointing out how convenient that is in a situation where almost all government policies have led to bad outcomes, even from governments you are much closer to ideologically.

I agree with the assessment of the flaws in the test and trace system. I agreed with them at the time. It doesn't change the fact that the limitations on test and trace that I pointed out, and you dismissed, are very real. There is no way that a test and trace system could possibly deal well with 1,000+ cases per day. That's what the expert said, just days after I did, and I only said it at the time because a whole host of experts not only said it, but provided evidence for it. Yet there you were classifying that view as something beyond logic. Do you agree with this expert opinion, on reflection? Or at least that he came to a logical assessment, even if you disagree with it?



That was one of their many failures, undoubtedly. I think we have good reason to question the importance of that particular failure given the experience of e.g. Czech Republic, who had it up and running earlier, but cases started to rise rapidly because of things that had nothing to do with contact tracing, and when it did, their contact tracing system didn't work very well. It's a tool that helps, but there are much more influential tools that the government didn't use or misused that played a much larger role in where we are now.
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If it doesn’t work, why did we spend so much money on it? That’s the problem. They’ve spent a fortune on an ineffective system that was too late. The general public can’t be blamed for thinking we’ve fecked the test and trace when it was our Government that told us how essential it was. Currently we’d have been better of bribing everyone with a share of the £12bn to stay at home. Instead they bribed people to go out and spread the virus.
 
Tony Babangida said:
I cannot decide whether I like Prof Balloux or not. A lot of the stuff he tweets is much needed rubbishing of crap science. But he also seems to hold himself above many of the scientists making a concerted effort to get track and trace working in the UK (which has massively failed to be fair). Didn’t he also sign Great Barrington? Anyway I think overall he’s a good voice for making sure you don’t become a lockdown evangelist without considering all of the negative effects.
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Yeah he seems to fancy himself as a bit of an agent provocateur. I follow him for balance, as otherwise I’m in a very one sided echo chamber. And a lot of what he says is fairly sensible, even if it goes against the grain.

Really just used his tweet as a means to share that data anyway. 96k cases a day is huge numbers. Just under a million every 10 days. And increasing all the time.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
As for test and trace, the government has outsourced this to a private company for £12 billion with no penalty clauses in the contract for missing targets, with a leader who has a proven track record of incompetent head (Dido Harding), who also happens to be married to a government MP and has many links with the current government. For context, this £12 billion given to friends of the government is more than the £7bn we spend on the NHS annually.
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Theres been a lot of this. For example Boots have been given the green light for a new 12 minute test that costs £120 and will be in 200 stores in the coming weeks. Who is the CEO of Boots? Seb James. Who does he know very well? Look at this picture.
bullingdon-club-640x480.jpg


One sitting bottom left, one sitting bottom right
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah he seems to fancy himself as a bit of an agent provocateur. I follow him for balance, as otherwise I’m in a very one sided echo chamber. And a lot of what he says is fairly sensible, even if it goes against the grain.
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Same. Think he’s good to follow for those reasons. His discussion of the downsides of all public health responses really made me appreciate how much people of Melbourne (where I am) have had to sacrifice over the past few months. To be fair RAB who has gone awol from this thread also helped me see all of the negatives too. Think I was definitely guilty a few months back of thinking lockdowns were the obvious solution without much consideration of the negatives. I’m not saying that they didn’t work here, because they absolutely have, just that they come at a significant cost that can’t be ignored.

And as someone with elderly family with Yorkshire and NI, the covid case numbers are really worrying. Hope we can get through winter.
 
acnumber9 said:
If it doesn’t work, why did we spend so much money on it? That’s the problem. They’ve spent a fortune on an ineffective system that was too late. The general public can’t be blamed for thinking we’ve fecked the test and trace when it was our Government that told us how essential it was. Currently we’d have been better of bribing everyone with a share of the £12bn to stay at home. Instead they bribed people to go out and spread the virus.
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100% agree. The biggest problem with the system, as I understand it, is how it was portrayed in the beginning. It absolutely was presented as our saviour, and we now know that just wasn't realistic. To me there's three reasons for that:
  1. We (the government primarily, but also the people) were desperate for a positive message, and unknowingly deceived ourselves into thinking it could prevent another quarantine because the alternative was a bit too much to process in those darker moments;
  2. We're a technophilic country, most of the West are but us and the US lean more heavily in that direction, and so the idea that technology could be our saviour, especially with technological heroes like Apple and Google getting involved, came naturally; and
  3. The government tend to think like @finneh that private industry are just better at everything because of the magic of "innovation" and some other wooly metaphors from Milton Friedman that you can apply religiously in any scenario, so when there was an opportunity for them to get involved, and they told us they could do all this stuff, well of course they're right they're the most successful businesspeople in our country, what do these silly civil servants know.
Once it became apparent that none of this was true, they didn't tell us for two reasons. They didn't want to backtrack on yet another thing, and the project was rife with corruption so bribes settled down any issues beyond that. It's absolutely insane that we're still paying those private contractors that amount of money for their bullshit, and yet we know it's because they don't want to stop it because it would look bad and because there's bribes involved. There might be the odd person in government who hopes it will eventually work out, but it's plainly obvious it won't. It's bollocks.

But that shouldn't distract us from the limitations of the system. Yes we were misled to begin with, but we are capable of assessing the evidence ourselves too. And we should be expected to, IMO. Still presenting it as a potential saviour that if only the government fixed, we wouldn't have to submit to these restrictions, is not true, and ultimately it's not helpful.
 
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Stanley Road said:
Assumptions is all we have unfortunately. It could be the amount of testing being done today, i dont know. but it's hard to understand that the rules which brought daily cases to zero now dont seem to work. When i read stories of police breaking up parties of 300+ people all over the country i can only assume that this sort of behavior does not help the cause. Busses are empty, trains are empty, pubs and restaurants are shut and offices are empty. it seems almost impossible to catch.
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Well people have to work and go get shopping etc, whilst there are asymptomatic People walking around or people who have symptoms but are ignorant of it or in denial.
 
Jimble said:
Theres been a lot of this. For example Boots have been given the green light for a new 12 minute test that costs £120 and will be in 200 stores in the coming weeks. Who is the CEO of Boots? Seb James. Who does he know very well? Look at this picture.

One sitting bottom left, one sitting bottom right
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It's a private testing service, and they've engaged for procurement with the manufacturer of the test. I'm struggling to see a correlation of where government have helped Boots here? Literally anyone with the capital and existing regulatory sign off can set up private testing.
 
Brwned said:
But that shouldn't distract us from the limitations of the system. Yes we were misled to begin with, but we are capable of assessing the evidence ourselves too. And we should be expected to, IMO. Still presenting it as a potential saviour that if only the government fixed, we wouldn't have to submit to these restrictions, is not true, and ultimately it's not helpful.
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No matter how much money you chuck at it, laboratory processing is where the bottle neck of mass testing exists. Those systems weren't designed for the volume they're seeing.
 
Jimble said:
Theres been a lot of this. For example Boots have been given the green light for a new 12 minute test that costs £120 and will be in 200 stores in the coming weeks. Who is the CEO of Boots? Seb James. Who does he know very well? Look at this picture.
bullingdon-club-640x480.jpg


One sitting bottom left, one sitting bottom right
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Tory England is bit on a network of old boys. The old adage is true that it’s who you know
 
F-Red said:
It's a private testing service, and they've engaged for procurement with the manufacturer of the test. I'm struggling to see a correlation of where government have helped Boots here? Literally anyone with the capital and existing regulatory sign off can set up private testing.
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Whilst what you say is true, I think it’s also a bit naive. Look at tory MPs having their family setting up new companies to win contracts for supplying PPE for example
 
Brwned said:
100% agree. The biggest problem with the system, as I understand it, is how it was portrayed in the beginning. It absolutely was presented as our saviour, and we now know that just wasn't realistic. To me there's three reasons for that:
  1. We (the government primarily, but also the people) were desperate for a positive message, and unknowingly deceived ourselves into thinking it could prevent another quarantine because the alternative was a bit too much to process in those darker moments;
  2. We're a technophilic country, most of the West are but us and the US lean more heavily in that direction, and so the idea that technology could be our saviour, especially with technological heroes like Apple and Google getting involved, came naturally; and
  3. The government tend to think like @finneh that private industry are just better at everything because of the magic of "innovation" and some other wooly metaphors from Milton Friedman that you can apply religiously in any scenario, so when there was an opportunity for them to get involved, and they told us they could do all this stuff, well of course they're right they're the most successful businesspeople in our country, what do these silly civil servants know.
Once it became apparent that none of this was true, they didn't tell us for two reasons. They didn't want to backtrack on yet another thing, and the project was rife with corruption so bribes settled down any issues beyond that. It's absolutely insane that we're still paying those private contractors that amount of money for their bullshit, and yet we know it's because they don't want to stop it because it would look bad and because there's bribes involved. There might be the odd person in government who hopes it will eventually work out, but it's plainly obvious it won't. It's bollocks.

But that shouldn't distract us from the limitations of the system. Yes we were misled to begin with, but we are capable of assessing the evidence ourselves too. And we should be expected to, IMO. Still presenting it as a potential saviour that if only the government fixed, we wouldn't have to submit to these restrictions, is not true, and ultimately it's not helpful.
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Are the issues caused by flaws inherent in the idea or through lack of administrative resources though? If it’s the latter, there are a lot of people who would love a job right now.
 
Brwned said:
I did say "almost", for that reason. By your definition, almost all of the government's policies have been bad. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that collective assessment, I'm just pointing out how convenient that is in a situation where almost all government policies have led to bad outcomes, even from governments you are much closer to ideologically.

I agree with the assessment of the flaws in the test and trace system. I agreed with them at the time. It doesn't change the fact that the limitations on test and trace that I pointed out, and you dismissed, are very real. There is no way that a test and trace system could possibly deal well with 1,000+ cases per day. That's what the expert said, just days after I did, and I only said it at the time because a whole host of experts not only said it, but provided evidence for it. Yet there you were classifying that view as something beyond logic. Do you agree with this expert opinion, on reflection? Or at least that he came to a logical assessment, even if you disagree with it?



That was one of their many failures, undoubtedly. I think we have good reason to question the importance of that particular failure given the experience of e.g. Czech Republic, who had it up and running earlier, but cases started to rise rapidly because of things that had nothing to do with contact tracing, and when it did, their contact tracing system didn't work very well. It's a tool that helps, but there are much more influential tools that the government didn't use or misused that played a much larger role in where we are now.
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Your link said that once we are over 1000+ cases per day, test and trace becomes ineffective. If we had managed test and trace effectively we would be in a much better position, when did it start, late May? When did we exceed 1000 cases per day? Early September, late August?

Maybe my annoyance with our failed test and trace not only costing lives, but also siphoning £12 billion to "friends of the governement" because they follow the privatisation ideology no matter the cost, meant was too dismissive of your post last month. If that is the case, I apologise. It is hard to look past the suffering that government mistakes and potential corruption are causing.
 
Jimble said:
Theres been a lot of this. For example Boots have been given the green light for a new 12 minute test that costs £120 and will be in 200 stores in the coming weeks. Who is the CEO of Boots? Seb James. Who does he know very well? Look at this picture.
bullingdon-club-640x480.jpg


One sitting bottom left, one sitting bottom right
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I didn't know that. But it doesn't surprise me. Thanks for sharing.
 
golden_blunder said:
Whilst what you say is true, I think it’s also a bit naive. Look at tory MPs having their family setting up new companies to win contracts for supplying PPE for example
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Two different things, procuring PPE is shady as anyone can set up a company & have the right contacts and then go from there. Some of my former colleagues switched from supplying used phones to PPE immediately as the influx of Far East suppliers came out of the woodwork. That has more corrupt practice than anything I've seen in this pandemic.

Boots aren't some fly by night supplier though, they're a high street pharmacist and a proposition of quick testing is no different than what has been offered by private medical facilities since the start of the pandemic, are they all connected to the government? The company on the 12 minute test, LumiraDx, are selling their machines private, so anyone can engage for procurement with them as long as they have the capital - wouldn't surprise me if United have these machines. It's difficult to draw any form of link to government on this story, other than a small fact that the CEO attended the same school as the Johnson.
 
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