SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

In Australia, NSW and Victoria can't quite stamp out community transmission. NSW had about 3 new cases a day after going 11 days without any and Victoria seems stuck in the 10-15 range. That said Victoria school kids went back to school today. So some parents will be very happy.

Edit: NSW down to 1 new infection connected to a known source

 

[bri2013]

There has been some learning taking place. While we see infection rates around the world climbing faster than hoped we are also seeing death rates are much lower than the beginning of the pandemic. There has been a lot learned and we are seeing that new knowledge in that area being put in place. I am a bit of an optimist and I hope this does signal that we are learning all the time and that there will be some level of stability becoming clear next year

Infection rates were estimated to be approx 100k un-diagnosed cases a day during the first wave. The only cases that were being picked up, were at hospitals due to low testing capacity. That would explain the skewed numbers to some degree (amongst other factors)

 

[Stack]

Infection rates were estimated to be approx 100k un-diagnosed cases a day during the first wave. The only cases that were being picked up, were at hospitals due to low testing capacity. That would explain the skewed numbers to some degree (amongst other factors)

Thanks for that. I hadnt thought of it.

 

[Sarni]

Been flicking through freesports channel on TV over here and they show Polish league regularly, stands look packed! Apparently 50% of capacity is allowed?

25% since last Saturday but was 50% in most areas before then.

 

[Smores]

I'm probably in a minority here but the northern mayors showing public dissent is really not helpful. It's all about who gets the blame but the by product is going to be lack of compliance.

I always complain when they do it but for once perhaps the government should have devolved the decision because if it was schools or hospitality these mayors would end up making the same decision anyway.

 

[jojojo]

I'm probably in a minority here but the northern mayors showing public dissent is really not helpful. It's all about who gets the blame but the by product is going to be lack of compliance.

I always complain when they do it but for once perhaps the government should have devolved the decision because if it was schools or hospitality these mayors would end up making the same decision anyway.

The trouble is that Manchester has had special restrictions since July. Meanwhile, the infection rates have been rising and the councils have been asking to talk about test/trace and local services. It's going to take more than more rules and bigger fines to get through this winter.

They've got to go back to why people aren't quarantining themselves and asking for tests as soon as they develop symptoms; why people aren't giving proper information to the tracing teams if they finally do test positive; and why they and their households/friends/contacts don't then follow the quarantine rules.

A lot of it is financial, some of it is enforcement, some of it is sheer practicality.

Informal care of kids and the vulnerable means there will be households mixing (whatever the rules say) especially if people are going to work, kids are going to school. Life does have to go on - even for the over 70s and others who are at most risk - and they do need help.

Delivery slots three weeks hence if you're told to quarantine now will get dismissed as irrelevant - especially if they come with minimum orders or delivery charges. Multigeneration households need options if someone tests positive - even if the option is a (free!) hotel room for the next week.

Focusing on pub closing times etc weakens the mayors' arguments in my opinion. But maybe that's just the TV headline and the real discussions they want have more practical detail on how to get locals to act in a public spirited way to each other and a protective way towards their own families etc.

 

[Brwned]

So what is the benefit of it then? I've seen no data at all that tells me why closing a pub at 10pm helps contain the spread of a virus.

I'm not sure there's a direct comparison with other countries in the way you are implying, seeing as there's been such a vast difference between how well (or badly) different countries in Europe have handled the pandemic and also quite significant differences to the population and density from one country to the next, as well as the culture.

The pub culture in the UK alone for example makes copying what somewhere else has done in regards to pubs/bars and expecting the same results pretty pointless.

I do think it's a near impossible situation for any government to manage and actually look good out of, but I'm very sceptical of any government the fumbles from one strategy to the next, does things like announce there's going to be an announcement in a few days but without actually announcing what the announcement is, and seems to have massive trouble producing any actual scientific data to go with any of it's strategies.

I'd have a lot more confidence in any decision if it didn't constantly seem like they were just stabbing in the dark.

Copying the same policy and expecting the same results across cultures is pretty pointless, agreed. Bit of a straw man argument though. It's not about whether it has the same degree of impact, but whether it has an impact in the same direction; is it a successful harm reduction strategy, even to a small degree? The core argument against it applies across countries: if you're going to restrict pubs and alcohol consumption, why not just close them rather than setting an arbitrary time limit? The strategies some UK pub-goers have taken in response - going to the pub earlier, drinking more in a shorter period of time, going to house parties afterwards - are the same that happens in any of these countries, there's nothing unique in that part of UK drinking culture.

It's very easy to say this a nonsensical idea entirely driven by the buffoonery of my government. It isn't a very credible argument when applied to the rest of the countries, some who employed the strategy when they were doing worse than the UK, and some who employed it when they were doing better. You can argue that they are all making the decision in the absence of any science supporting it, but that seems unlikely. Why would they want to do it, if they didn't have good reason to believe it was helpful? Again, you can point fingers at the UK government for their ideology, their competence and create an answer out of thin air, but when you map that onto the rest of the countries, it no longer fits because they cover a broad range of ideologies and competence levels.

The basic logic underpinning placing limits on drinking seems pretty sensible to me. It was hugely controversial to stop alcohol sales in South Africa but the positive impact on public health outcomes was stark, for obvious reasons. It's a reason for people to congregate in larger groups, surrounded by strangers, with less adherence to social distancing and personal hygiene, and encourages people to get out of the house for a lot longer. You would want to put a limit to those kinds of activities at this point in a pandemic. From a coronavirus risk reduction perspective, you would want to stop them altogether. But stopping them altogether would have an impact on people's mental and social well-being, it could have much deeper economic costs, and it would chip away at people's desire to adhere to other restrictions. So limiting rather than closing those avenues for spread is a reasonable compromise, in the current situation.

Whether they have the evidence to support that decision now, I don't know. If they do have data on the subject I suspect it's very noisy. The research presented by the CDC on the impact of pubs and restaurants on the spread of coronavirus was not particularly robust, but it was directional evidence that some limits would make a difference. Exactly what those limits should be is not that clear, which is why countries have drawn different arbitrary lines on venues and timings. The fact the overall strategy is so widespread does suggest that it's not just some hair-brained idea from Dominic Cummings, though. From my perspective that's the best evidence on the subject, in the public sphere.

 

[fergieisold]

SARS-CoV-2 survives for up to 28 days on some surfaces, 10 days longer than influenza and survives far better at lower temperatures. That doesn't mean infections can occur from surface transmission but it doesn't mean it can't either.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ive-up-to-28-days-on-surfaces-scientists-find

I really dislike studies like this. The conditions they used are so unrepresentative of the real environment that we can safely ignore it.

 

[F-Red]

Then why are other countries not copying their behaviours? With flatlines like that

In some countries, they may not take it as seriously?

Interesting story on how quick they move to surprise suppress the virus with mass testing - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785

 

[golden_blunder]

Interesting story on how quick they move to surprise the virus with mass testing - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785

Surprise!

 

[Wibble]

I really dislike studies like this. The conditions they used are so unrepresentative of the real environment that we can safely ignore it.

Why would we ignore it? This is exactly where they should start as you need carefully controlled studies to have decent baseline data. The study did not aim to see if, and if so how long, infection can be transmitted on surfaces. That might be the next step now that we know itcan survive far longer than the influenza virus can. Other very interesting data found was how much better it survived at lower temperatures. Again now a possibility for further research.

 

[Dave_MUFC]

Anyone else getting really annoyed with the government constantly harping on about how being able to travel to see your family on Christmas and boxing day will absolutely, definitively happen, with a 0% chance of being lockdowned during that period?

In July/August, everyone thought the world would be back to normality by now, not heading into another wave, so not sure how that statement can be made with so much confidence.

Telling people that if they don't respect rules and try to lower the risk, otherwise there's a chance we don't get to see family at Christmas would surely install a bit of worry amongst the doubters, and get people to abide a lot more.

But oh wait, what about the Christmas economy....

 

[fergieisold]

Why would we ignore it? This is exactly where they should start as you need carefully controlled studies to have decent baseline data. The study did not aim to see if, and if so how long, infection can be transmitted on surfaces. That might be the next step.

As a baseline in unrealistic conditions fair enough. The more useful studies will be looking at real environment settings, the nicest one I’ve seen so far was Simulated summer vs winter sunlight. The virus is deactivated in 6 and 19 minutes respectively if I’m remembering it correctly.

I think we should also target the question of why surface transmission of covid-19 doesn’t appear to be particularly efficient vs what’s commonly understood with the flu.

 

[F-Red]

Surprise!

damn autocorrect on the phone. Suppress!

 

[Drifter]

I wonder what Johnson will announce for London specifically. No one seems to give a shit here about covid.

He'll go easy on the Capital. He knows that he can't afford to keep it locked down.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Why would we ignore it? This is exactly where they should start as you need carefully controlled studies to have decent baseline data. The study did not aim to see if, and if so how long, infection can be transmitted on surfaces. That might be the next step now that we know itcan survive far longer than the influenza virus can. Other very interesting data found was how much better it survived at lower temperatures. Again now a possibility for further research.

As a baseline in unrealistic conditions fair enough. The more useful studies will be looking at real environment settings, the nicest one I’ve seen so far was Simulated summer vs winter sunlight. The virus is deactivated in 6 and 19 minutes respectively if I’m remembering it correctly.

I think we should also target the question of why surface transmission of covid-19 doesn’t appear to be particularly efficient vs what’s commonly understood with the flu.

I have no idea how reliable the data this bloke is quoting is but it’s an interesting idea. Humidity and rate of viral spread.

 

[fergieisold]

I have no idea how reliable the data this bloke is quoting is but it’s an interesting idea. Humidity and rate of viral spread.

Interesting yellow box! Presumably more humid conditions allow virus laden aerosol to sediment out of the air more quickly?

the only explanations I’ve seen for some countries in Asia escaping are either environmental conditions or some sort of immunity from previous coronavirus outbreaks (e.g. SARS)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Interesting yellow box! Presumably more humid conditions allow virus laden aerosol to sediment out of the air more quickly?

the only explanations I’ve seen for some countries in Asia escaping are either environmental conditions or some sort of immunity from previous coronavirus outbreaks (e.g. SARS)

The point is actually that countries like Thailand are so humid it makes it harder for the virus to survive. Dry conditions are optimal for long term survival outside the body. According to the graphs he’s tweeting the humidity in the Uk is perfect for viral spread, all year round.

Obviously humidity not the only factor. UV light and high temperatures also kills the virus. So longer, hotter, sunnier days (and more time spent outside) have helped to damp things down during summer in the UK.

If you live in a country that’s hot, sunny and humid all year round (e.g. Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong) then that’s optimal conditions for keeping case numbers down. Which puts all the praise they’re getting for mask use etc into perspective.

 

[prateik]

I have read a few places about humidity being a factor... But I cant find the ~5 to ~11.5 g/m3 range that person is claiming to be the risky zone.

There was a study published in India a few months back that said something similar, but that claimed India would be fine from the humidity point of view.. But that's just one factor.. There are plenty of cases here.

We had our moonsoon (rains) from mid June to Sept.. It rains a lot.. Mumbai is very very humid.. cases were at a record high.. so even if humidity plays a part, its not the only factor. Countries that have managed to keep it in check are doing a lot of things right..

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I have read a few places about humidity being a factor... But I cant find the ~5 to ~11.5 g/m3 range that person is claiming to be the risky zone.

There was a study published in India a few months back that said something similar, but that claimed India would be fine from the humidity point of view.. But that's just one factor.. There are plenty of cases here.

We had our moonsoon (rains) from mid June to Sept.. It rains a lot.. Mumbai is very very humid.. cases were at a record high.. so even if humidity plays a part, its not the only factor. Countries that have managed to keep it in check are doing a lot of things right..

Absolutely. Environment factors only part of the picture. With them in your favour, though, it probably gives a load of impetus to all the other PH measures. Conversely, you wonder if there’s much point agonising about schools vs pubs when a virus is just waxing and waning with the weather. Exactly like loads of other viruses do each year.

Which is something I would like to know. Do you have cold/flu seasons in countries that are warm/humid all year round?

EDIT: Quick google reveals that influenza markedly less seasonal in tropical climates. So there you go.

 

[golden_blunder]

damn autocorrect on the phone. Suppress!

Knew it was but surprise sounded better. Brings images of medical staff surprise injecting residents at opportune moments

 

[fergieisold]

The point is actually that countries like Thailand are so humid it makes it harder for the virus to survive. Dry conditions are optimal for long term survival outside the body. According to the graphs he’s tweeting the humidity in the Uk is perfect for viral spread, all year round.

Obviously humidity not the only factor. UV light and high temperatures also kills the virus. So longer, hotter, sunnier days (and more time spent outside) have helped to damp things down during summer in the UK.

If you live in a country that’s hot, sunny and humid all year round (e.g. Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong) then that’s optimal conditions for keeping case numbers down. Which puts all the praise they’re getting for mask use etc into perspective.

Went down a google scholar rabbit hole. Quick glance through this article (2009) shows it’s not very well understood how the humidity influences transmission but they’ve got good ideas about what the mechanisms could be.

humid rainy conditions discourage transmission. presumably through reduced aerosol production from an infected host. However they also suspect a damaging effect on the virus itself.

they noted that this would however potentially increase surface deposition, increasing chances of infection from touching infected surfaces. But if covid-19 really isn’t effectively spread from surface contamination this would be a clear advantage.

they also found that the Absolute Humidity rather than the relative humidity was more important. I kind of suspected the RH would be important in stopping droplets evaporating and increasing deposition to the surface.

https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151

 

[Vidyoyo]

But my redcafe.net post isn't.

And in fact, worrying about the 10pm curfew is massively oversimplifying the problem.

This is Eureka park in Ashford

There are a bunch of different industries here, including a Travelodge, and a Garden Centre but the big draw is definitely the Cineworld Cinema.

The Nandos, Pizza Hut, KFC, McDonalds, Frankie and Bennys, Beefeater etc all rely on the Cinema to draw in crowds. Some of those can survive without the cinema (Beef-Eater and Dobbies)

Lock Meadow, Maidstone is the same story. There is a Gym, a bowling alley, a Frankie and Bennys, a trampoline bouncy place, a bunch of other restaurants, etc. But once again the main draw is the cinema. Without the

The government hasn't ordered cinemas to close, but cinemas are closing anyway

All over the country, the live-entertainment industries, and associated industries are in crisis.

People are going to lose their job. People are going to re-train. That is the government's priority. Not pampering to those who won't socially distance.

What are the government even doing about this? It seems completely necessary in the long-term, particularly now as it's clear that certain sectors aren't going back to normal.

 

[prateik]

Absolutely. Environment factors only part of the picture. With them in your favour, though, it probably gives a load of impetus to all the other PH measures. Conversely, you wonder if there’s much point agonising about schools vs pubs when a virus is just waxing and waning with the weather. Exactly like loads of other viruses do each year.

Which is something I would like to know. Do you have cold/flu seasons in countries that are warm/humid all year round?

EDIT: Quick google reveals that influenza markedly less seasonal in tropical climates. So there you go.

There might be data to show the virus lingers longer in the air in dry conditions and not as much in humid areas, but those tweets was cherry picking data.
The spike the US had in June was largely in the southern states which arent dry at that time.... Texas and Florida

It doesnt spread as fast in open areas anyway.. In closed conditions, inside buildings with air conditioning, the humidity outside is hardly a factor.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There might be data to show the virus lingers longer in the air in dry conditions and not as much in humid areas, but those tweets was cherry picking data.
The spike the US had in June was largely in the southern states which arent dry at that time.... Texas and Florida

It doesnt spread as fast in open areas anyway.. In closed conditions, inside buildings with air conditioning, the humidity outside is hardly a factor.

Yeah, true. In very hot/humid countries people are driven indoors to air conditioned environments which could give the virus cool, dry conditions and a captive audience!

 

[Brwned]

Yeah, true. In very hot/humid countries people are driven indoors to air conditioned environments which could give the virus cool, dry conditions and a captive audience!

But also presumably with much better ventilation systems / air circulation. Was definitely my experience in Singapore anyway. So in the summer in places like the UK people are outside or have doors and windows open more often than people in somewhere like Singapore any time of the year, but in winter people in the UK are inside as often if not more and they also have worse air circulation in in a lot of places.

Then again SE Asia is quite diverse. Not sure you can say ventilation systems in much of e.g. Vietnam is better. But then that also links to the desire to be indoors.

 

[stepic]

what time are the new annoucements due today?

 

[fergieisold]

what time are the new annoucements due today?

There's a science update now on BBC 1. I believe BoJo is on at 1800.

 

[sun_tzu]

There's a science update now on BBC 1. I believe BoJo is on at 1800.

yes though he will make pretty much the same announcement at around half three in the commons

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I wonder what Johnson will announce for London specifically. No one seems to give a shit here about covid.

Don’t be silly, it’s only the Northern areas that have traditionally been anti-Tory that are being locked down - Liverpool, Lancashire mining areas, North East, etc. London will be given a free pass.

 

[fergieisold]

yes though he will make pretty much the same announcement at around half three in the commons

Thanks, didn't realise there was an afternoon announcement.

 

[groovyalbert]

Don’t be silly, it’s only the Northern areas that have traditionally been anti-Tory that are being locked down - Liverpool, Lancashire mining areas, North East, etc. London will be given a free pass.

London's rate of infection is - officially - nowhere near that of parts of the North. Although that could well have something to do with how difficult it's been to get testing round here.

And, right now, Labour has a far higher representation in London than anywhere else in the UK. The old divisions no longer exist.

 

[Crustanoid]

The bulletin on BBC right now seems to indicate the authorities are starting to realise the South East and London might follow the NW and NE. They might actually start caring more now.

 

[11101]

Don’t be silly, it’s only the Northern areas that have traditionally been anti-Tory that are being locked down - Liverpool, Lancashire mining areas, North East, etc. London will be given a free pass.

Bloody hell, even viruses won't support the Labour Party.

 

[sun_tzu]

Thanks, didn't realise there was an afternoon announcement.

they got pulled up by the speaker for making announcements to the public before announcing to the commons - so they now mane the announcements in the commons first
If you can stand the whole yaaaa booooo aspect of it you get the info a little earlier

 

[fergieisold]

A nice press conference. Writing is on the wall that unless we do something we risk a rapid deterioration in the infection rates and hospitalisations. The Liverpool hospitalisation curve was particularly concerning, look to be about half the peak of April.

 

[Jacko21]

 

[Jacko21]

A nice press conference. Writing is on the wall that unless we do something we risk a rapid deterioration in the infection rates and hospitalisations. The Liverpool hospitalisation curve was particularly concerning, look to be about half the peak of April.

Feels like they're trying to sober people up ahead of the coming weeks/months.

 

[fergieisold]

Feels like they're trying to sober people up ahead of the coming weeks/months.

Yeh, I actually thought we were in a better position. But the key data showing the hospitalisations is what was quite telling. We could do nothing to protect the economy but I can only really see one outcome - those field hospitals actually get some use!

 

[F-Red]

Don’t be silly, it’s only the Northern areas that have traditionally been anti-Tory that are being locked down - Liverpool, Lancashire mining areas, North East, etc. London will be given a free pass.

The data would suggest that it isn't politically motivated, but you knew that already.