SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I don't understand the on again off again push for herd immunity when it seems that people can get reinfected (over a space of months and not just virus appearing mildly in subsequent retests) and the stress it will cause for health systems if rules are relaxed a lot more. I have no scientific background and I rely on the advice from experts to inform me but I think there might be a need to dispel this idea that we should just let the virus take it's course.
 
Port Vale Devil said:
Just reading social media these past few weeks and the tide is definitely turning from most being very responsible and keeping themselves and others safe to people having had enough with no end in sight.

A couple of friends on Facebook are proper anti-vaxxers and pro Trump even though they are from the UK They seem to be getting more and more people agreeing with them and their comments whereas a few months ago there was hardly anyone.

The Cummings episode really didn’t help in the early days.
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Boris Johnson's 10 May speech to the nation, the ditching of "stay home, protect NHS and save lives" message and Cummings episode is where it went wrong for government messaging
 
Garethw said:
I saw a graph yesterday that showed that the hospitality sector only accounted for 4% of COVID infections in the UK. Nursing homes, schools and offices were the main contributors.

If these figures are accurate (supposedly they were from the governments website) then closing pubs and restaurants is going to make almost no difference. Thoughts?
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The figures aren't inaccurate but they are misleading.

They come from here, if you're referring to this article or similar. They rely on the data on page 16, figure 20 in the PHE report.

cppnfeY.png


In total it shows of the ~ 550 covid incidents they were able to trace in Week 39 (week ending 27th September), only a tiny proportion were linked back to pubs and restaurants.

But in Week 39 there were ~ 30,000 cases as per figure 1, page 2.

V3M74ng.png


They don't explain how many cases arise from each incident, but if we assumed an average of 10 cases per incident, that would account for 5,500 cases or represent less than 1 in 5 cases.

So pubs and restaurants could represent just 4% of traced cases but 40% of all cases. Which is why they are using sources beyond contact tracing like this report from the CDC, which says people who have the virus were twice as likely to have dined out than those who haven't. The difference is so significant that it suggests social activities have a significant impact on the virus spread. This gives an insight into how:

Pogue Mahone said:


Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.
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Bloody hell figures for ireland today

1012 new cases.
90

The 14-day incidence rate has increased from 108 per 100,000 last Sunday to 150 per 100,000 today, which represents a 39% increase.

"All of the important indicators of the disease are deteriorating. For example, there has been a consistent increase in test positivity over the past week. The test positivity rate up to midnight Friday 9th October was 6.2%, which has more than doubled in less than a fortnight.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

Agree with this article, excellent read.

Hound Dog said:
Serbia. Most of the Slavic countries seem to share this attitude.
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Well it doesn't help when a well traveled celebrity like Novak shares the same attitude.

I would add a word of caution about the vaccines.

While we have good reason to believe one of the vaccines will start getting widely distributed early in 2021, it may not be a smallpox vaccine and likely will have lower efficacy. Good enough to stop super spreading but not good enough to prevent the disease from staying endemic in the population for the next decade.
 
If Ireland isnt in level 5 in 2 weeks then its bordering on negligence.
Any later and I cant see a Christmas for us and itll be the last Christmas for a lot of people with older relatives simply because a lot of younger people have decided to sacrifice them.
 
Pexbo said:
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I wont argue that tweet, but...
The first and last points are really sad for us living here, and a failure without a doubt.
The third point is true, but the reason they went for the strategy they did was not at all to save the economy. This is something that ”fans” of the Swedish model has put on us from the outside. And wrongly so, as the numbers prove.

The second point on the antibodies, this differs very much in Stockholm. Some places have really high antibody numbers, and others(mostly "richer" places) has less people with antibodies. What they see now is that the places that were hit badly in the fall (suburbs outside Stockholm) dont have the same rising in cases as the inner city does.
 
cyberman said:
If Ireland isnt in level 5 in 2 weeks then its bordering on negligence.
Any later and I cant see a Christmas for us and itll be the last Christmas for a lot of people with older relatives simply because a lot of younger people have decided to sacrifice them.
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Another day or 2 of this and NPHET will be proven right, should go to level 5. Not that it will change the behaviour of many unfortunately, like those protesting today.
 
Just drove past a local Wetherspoons and there must have been a queue of 40 people crowding and waiting to get in.

I didn’t want to chastise younger people or pubs, but this behaviour can not be helping the cause.
 
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The (slightly) more positive news is that you can see the effect moving to level three had on Dublin. Hopefully that effect kicking in for the rest of the country will make a difference.

I worry about Christmas though.
 
SinNombre said:
Well it doesn't help when a well traveled celebrity like Novak shares the same attitude.
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It's just him you have heard about as he is an international star; the majority of our celebrities actually share the same attitude.

That's what you get when you have a society where people trust singers and sportsmen more than scientists, eh?
 
cyberman said:
If Ireland isnt in level 5 in 2 weeks then its bordering on negligence.
Any later and I cant see a Christmas for us and itll be the last Christmas for a lot of people with older relatives simply because a lot of younger people have decided to sacrifice them.
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Do the schools stay open in a level 5
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Original plan was yes but they’ve tweaked the wording to give them an option to close. My money’s on a prolonged half term, with a very good chance the schools won’t reopen.
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Said that to my wife about a week ago, they will extend Halloween break and see how things progress from there. It would be the sensible thing to do. No way the unions will allow teachers to be at risk if everything else is closed for level 5
 
Brwned said:
The counter balance to that us the UK were neither the first to close pubs a little early, nor the last. Believing just the UK government are idiots is one thing but it's more than a stretch to say all of these big European countries are. It is a normal policy, with obvious imperfections.
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So what is the benefit of it then? I've seen no data at all that tells me why closing a pub at 10pm helps contain the spread of a virus.

I'm not sure there's a direct comparison with other countries in the way you are implying, seeing as there's been such a vast difference between how well (or badly) different countries in Europe have handled the pandemic and also quite significant differences to the population and density from one country to the next, as well as the culture.

The pub culture in the UK alone for example makes copying what somewhere else has done in regards to pubs/bars and expecting the same results pretty pointless.

I do think it's a near impossible situation for any government to manage and actually look good out of, but I'm very sceptical of any government the fumbles from one strategy to the next, does things like announce there's going to be an announcement in a few days but without actually announcing what the announcement is, and seems to have massive trouble producing any actual scientific data to go with any of it's strategies.

I'd have a lot more confidence in any decision if it didn't constantly seem like they were just stabbing in the dark.
 
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Why are the case numbers in China so low? How come they haven't had a second wave?

China Graph


UK Graph


Cant figure out how to embed it, says administrator error
 
golden_blunder said:
You believe it?
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I do believe it because I think we would have got news of a second lockdown in China. But instead I read about how they are opening up and doing fine. It appears to be the same in Taiwan which has a more 'western' goverment


China parties like it's 2019 as country moves on from coronavirus

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https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

People in China are shedding their face masks and partying again, with bars, nightclubs and beach venues across the country filling up after months of pandemic controls. Last weekend, hundreds of Beijing residents attended a music festival on the beachfront at Beidaihe — a location that also serves as the annual getaway for the Communist party leadership. To get into the venue, party-goers had to scan their government-designed app that tracks where they have visited, and have their temperatures taken. But once inside the sealed-off resort, they could throw off any thoughts of coronavirus. “Nobody was wearing masks. It was like we’d all entered a parallel universe and forgot the existence of the epidemic,” said Nancy Lee, 33, an art curator who was one of the festival-goers. “After suffocating at home for more than six months, it was time to loosen up.”


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In the capital Beijing, bars and restaurants are becoming busy again. Revellers say they feel they have earned the “freedom to party” after months of strict social distancing from late January.

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https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0

The mood in China is in stark contrast to much of the rest of the world, where partying has been put on hold because of the pandemic. In many European countries, bars and nightclubs have been blamed for spreading the virus and forced to close.

The return to revelry in China was made possible after local governments gradually relaxed their strong epidemic measures. For the past four months, there have been fewer than a hundred daily symptomatic cases in China, apart from a brief outbreak in Xinjiang province.

Cities across China have resumed socialising at different speeds. Beijing, the seat of government, had the most prolonged epidemic controls. But in many other big cities, such as Shanghai and Chengdu, normal life was barely interrupted.
Rest Spoilered
The reopening of venues will be welcomed by China’s embattled retail sector. Consumption has been slowly recovering from the depths of the lockdown in February. July retail sales in China were 1.1 per cent below the comparable month of 2019, according to the latest official figures, although UBS estimates that in August, sales returned to the previous year’s levels.

“From restrictions [on movement] and shop closures to no restrictions and shops opening, there’s [going] to be a big rebound,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS in Hong Kong.

But while many middle-class professionals are engaging in “revenge spending” after months of being unable to splash the cash, lower-income workers are still suffering. Economists say China’s economy is stuck in two-track growth, widening the wealth gap. The most conspicuous sign of the return to confidence in China was the giant pool party held last month in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak originated. Recommended ExplainerCoronavirus economic impact Pandemic crisis: Global economic recovery tracker As part of its economic stimulus package, the local government gave discounts for entry to the Maya Beach Water Park, which hosted an electronic music festival for more than 3,000 people. It was by far the biggest event the city had held since lockdown began in January. It was a release for the people of Wuhan, whose 11m residents were not allowed to leave the city and confined to their apartments for two-and-a-half months at the start of the outbreak. Those controls were later relaxed and confidence returned in June after the mass testing of residents turned up only 300 cases, all non-symptomatic. “We were surprised to see such a big, rowdy crowd,” said Luo Ling, 31, who along with his wife attended the pool party. “People around us were . . . having the time of their lives.” Having worn face masks all day, they removed them after arriving at the venue. “I guess there was no point wearing a mask anyway since we got drenched instantly from head to toe,” he said.
https://www.ft.com/content/548e151d-39ae-4c6d-9241-b36c3de687b0
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Hound Dog said:
Does anyone have any idea about the overall % of people that had it any country? I know some studies have been done on Stockholm, New York, certain regions of Italy, but nothing nation-wide.

The reason why I am asking is that, with this number of recorded cases again, surely the herd immunity has at least a chance of being accomplished before the vaccine arrives?

Or if not, what is the way out? It has been seven fecking months and I feel no closer to a resolution than in March - this is still something that no one is talking about.
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I read today that the worst hit cities like New York, Stockholm and places in the UK may have reached 15-20% and with the HIT likely to be 70-85% getting there without a vaccine would be very painful indeed.

Edit: just read that Stockholm is at about 12% and Sweden as a whole 5/6%
 
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Nothing on Hancock's latest scandal ?

'The drinks are on me but Public Health England are in charge of payment methodology so I will not be paying anything': Health Secretary Matt Hancock makes tasteless Covid test joke in Commons bar as he 'joined MPs flouting 10pm curfew'

I would of posted a link but it's the mail so I didn't bother.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Big study in India shows that there’s only a 9% chance of catching it from someone in your household and 78% of people who catch it don’t infect anyone else. I’ve seen similar numbers from studies in other countries. However it gets passed on, it seems as though some people are a hell of a lot more infective than others. Either that or susceptibility is extremely variable.

Hard to work out what’s the most important factor but there’s been loads of super spreader events, so former more likely than latter.
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Yet in places like AU and NZ where there are very few infections, and therefore tracing tends to be much better, there is very frequent infection between known contacts and family.
 
Why all the fuss about a potential second national lockdown? More and more areas are being locked down anyway, so we’re almost in a national lockdown in all but name anyway.
 
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