SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

RedRover said:
Whilst that may be true, in terms of their current positions which countries are significantly better off? Everywhere in Europe we're seeing a resurgence of cases. Nobody has unlocked this, perhaps because, without a vaccine the stark reality is you can't supress or control a virus like this without completely shutting down and causing chaos.

People still keep mentioning Cummings even now. Where I live at least 50% of the people (if not more) will still have no idea who he is because they take no interest in politics. If they're flouting rules it's not because they've seen him doing it, it's because they are either no longer (or for whatever reason were never) scared of the virus and want to get on with their lives and do what they always do. Rightly or wrongly, that's how I believe it is.

New Zealand's course of action seems heavily dependent on suppressing until (and if) there is a vaccine because without, they've just kicked the can down the road. Their PM may be popular now but the tide can soon turn if there's an economic effect, or if there's an outbreak months after the rest of the world has seen the worst of it.

However charismatic you are, I personally don't believe you can convince a majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. All over the world people are tiring of this. It's human nature. Forcing a change like that on people needs a threat behind it. History tells us that. The threat of the virus is now a normal part of life which many, many people are clearly prepared to accept.
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It’s not though. If/when the virus really is “a normal part of life” we’ll see a surge many many times more dramatic than what we’re going through now. That’s when hospitals get completely full, shut down all non-covid services and start to ration who does/doesn’t get an ITU bed.

There’s every chance we’ll end up with ambulances unable to turn up to car wrecks and severely injured/dying people have to rely on friends and family to bring them to (completely overwhelmed) hospitals.

I understand why people are saying “let it rip” but they’re saying that from a position of ignorance about how that scenario plays out
 
Rado_N said:
It seems to reinforce the suggestion that the spread is from elsewhere, with the PHE data seeming to support it being way more down to schools and workplaces.

Pubs/bars/restaurants are an easy scapegoat though and it’s easy for the DM etc to print pics of people sitting outside pubs and blame them for causing the spread when it doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.
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I think it’s more likely the virus is airborne. So there’s no way to prevent indoor transmission completely. I’m sure the handwashing/handgel/social distancing in restaurants reduced the risk of passing the virus on but doesn’t remove that risk entirely.

In Ireland last week they gave a breakdown of a single cluster in which someone infected waiting staff and people on an adjoining table, despite the restaurant fully complying with the regulations.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think it’s more likely the virus is airborne. So there’s no way to prevent indoor transmission completely. I’m sure the handwashing/handgel/social distancing in restaurants reduced the risk of passing the virus on but doesn’t remove that risk entirely.

In Ireland last week they gave a breakdown of a single cluster in which someone infected waiting staff and people on an adjoining table, despite the restaurant fully complying with the regulations.
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For feck sake. We’re all doomed.
 
F-Red said:
UK figures - 77 deaths, 17,540 cases.
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feck me those cases are frightening, beginning to wonder if that excel file thing was a dead cat. People have focused on the ineptitude of the track and trace devs and the sudden massive jump in daily cases has passed without much scrutiny. People seemed to have shrugged and put the alarming jump down to how it’s been aggregated rather than it being genuinely shocking that we have this many cases again.
 
Pexbo said:
feck me those cases are frightening
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At it's peak in March/April the expected number was nearer 100,000 cases a day. The trend upwards is concerning.

Test turnaround time is averaging 3 days in England currently.
 
Pexbo said:
feck me those cases are frightening, beginning to wonder if that excel file thing was a dead cat. People have focused on the ineptitude of the track and trace devs and the sudden massive jump in daily cases has passed without much scrutiny. People seemed to have shrugged and put the alarming jump down to how it’s been aggregated rather than it being genuinely shocking that we have this many cases again.
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Is that the highest we have had so far?
 
The more worrying figure is the hospital admissions in UK, now at 3,412 compared to about 3k yesterday. Ventilator beds are now at 442 compared to 410 yesterday.

Steady consistent 10-15% increases.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It’s not though. If/when the virus really is “a normal part of life” we’ll see a surge many many times more dramatic than what we’re going through now. That’s when hospitals get completely full, shut down all non-covid services and start to ration who does/doesn’t get an ITU bed.

There’s every chance we’ll end up with ambulances unable to turn up to car wrecks and severely injured/dying people have to rely on friends and family to bring them to (completely overwhelmed) hospitals.

I understand why people are saying “let it rip” but they’re saying that from a position of ignorance about how that scenario plays out
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My point is that millions (if not the majority) of people (certainly 99% of those I know) are going about their business, impeded by the restrictions, but otherwise largely unconcerned. I'm talking about ordinary, often professional people who are now back to worrying about the things they worried about before this all started. I am involved in the management of a business which has (and continues to) take this very seriously in terms of measures and planning etc. but what I see from my colleagues is indifference to this, even if we know we must push on. They're tired of it (as I'm sure we all are) and the logistical problems it brings more than anything.

We were frightened (probably rightly) into compliance pre-lockdown but that's clearly worn off as we've all learned to live under this cloud. You can question whether that's right, but what's answer? How do you enforce measures across millions of people? The only solution seems to be another lockdown and frankly, I suspect the country simply can't afford that.
 
F-Red said:
Recorded, yes. However given the death rate we had in March/April, the case rate they believe was in 6 figures daily, so probably not the actual highest we've had.
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Aaah I see, still concerning though, and all my mates are banging on about how things should go back to normal and the vulnerable should isolate without mentioning that they would then kill their vulnerable family when they visit them.
 
My grandma (85 years old) is in hospital the middle of chemo and yesterday tested positive for covid after running a temperature. Today she tested negative. No idea what's going on.

How accurate are these tests? Is a false positive or false negative more likely?
 
acnumber9 said:
Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?
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Is it a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since everyone got back from their summer holidays, the weather got cooler, schools reopened, kids started University and people were encouraged to go back to work that there's been a massive increase in cases? No. Does any of that mean there's a convincing case that it's schools that are the problem here? Also no.

Brwned said:
I suspect you know that isn't the standard deviation. It might be the range, if the anecdotal evidence is accurate, but that's it. I figure you have some kind of stake in schools because you're making a very strong argument based on data we don't seem to have. If you think I'm doing the same then you've probably read into my words a bit too much.
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It was only anecdotal evidence, but I'd be surprised if the distribution of cluster size didn't have an absolutely massive tail. You're right though, I do get over-invested in this. Mainly because I've got a kid in primary school, and they seem to be on a hair trigger to shut down or keep kids off school at the first sign of trouble, while the rest of the country is cracking on.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
My grandma (85 years old) is in hospital the middle of chemo and yesterday tested positive for covid after running a temperature. Today she tested negative. No idea what's going on.

How accurate are these tests? Is a false positive or false negative more likely?
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Some bed-time reading for you.

tl;dr Positive result more reliable than negative.

Crap news about your gran. Hope she gets through the rest of her chemo ok.
 
lynchie said:
Is it a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since everyone got back from their summer holidays, the weather got cooler, schools reopened, kids started University and people were encouraged to go back to work that there's been a massive increase in cases? No. Does any of that mean there's a convincing case that it's schools that are the problem here? Also no.



It was only anecdotal evidence, but I'd be surprised if the distribution of cluster size didn't have an absolutely massive tail. You're right though, I do get over-invested in this. Mainly because I've got a kid in primary school, and they seem to be on a hair trigger to shut down or keep kids off school at the first sign of trouble, while the rest of the country is cracking on.
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People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.
 
acnumber9 said:
People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.
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Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.
 
Does pubs and clubs seem like they will close soon? Instead of 10pm? Or will that just continue.
 
11101 said:
Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.
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It’s blatantly obvious. Countries like Italy are still plenty warm enough too. Obviously all those other things have an impact too but not to this degree. It baffles me that apparently closing schools is completely off the table.
 
acnumber9 said:
People were encouraged to go back to work in July. And plenty of people take holidays at that time. I know you’re heavily invested in being right about this but there’s mounting evidence that schools being open is a bigger issue than the Government want to admit. The weather cooling could be having an impact too of course. There’s no convincing argument that schools aren’t a big problem.
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11101 said:
Italy has been though restaurants reopening, borders reopening, bars, gyms, offices, hair salons, etc. etc. all reopening, all without much of a hitch. A slow creep up to ~1,000 or so cases but nothing alarming. Schools reopen and we're now posting close to 5,000 a day and doubling every few days.
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There’s absolutely no question that secondary schools are a big driver here. Teenagers are basically adults, as far as the virus is concerned. So shoving millions of adults into rooms together, having kept them apart all summer, is having predictable consequences. With concrete evidence of same, looking at the age range of positive cases.

The jury is out on primary schools and creches though. The latter opened months ago with no obvious impact on daily cases and both age groups aren’t showing up in big numbers in the testing. there’s a biological plausibility to this because the immune system of young kids is substantively different to that of adults.

It does seem obvious that sending secondary school kids back to home schooling is the single most effective measure any government can do to slow down the surge. Very unpopular, politically, though. I think we might see a fudge, with half term extended by a week or two to coincide with additional lockdown measures across the board. That will keep the lid on things until we get another massive surge kicking in during the run up to Christmas. Which will be delightful.
 
acnumber9 said:
Surely the clue is in the number. Bars and household mixing have been allowed since July. Schools have been open since the start of September. It was two weeks after this that cases exploded . Nothing was stopping teenagers mixing before schools opened so why have they increased all of a sudden?
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Weren't cases on a steady increase up till then? And what impact did thousands of people returning from holidays in Spain and France have?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think we might see a fudge, with half term extended by a week or two to coincide with additional lockdown measures across the board. That will keep the lid on things until we get another massive surge kicking in during the run up to Christmas.
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I would bet good money right now that will be their exact plan.
 
decorativeed said:
Weren't cases on a steady increase up till then? And what impact did thousands of people returning from holidays in Spain and France have?
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Steady, yes. Prompted by some of the things you’re saying and eat out to help out etc. They’ve exploded after schools opening though. And there’s no signs of the tighter restrictions on households making a difference. Are we pretending that everybody came back from holiday right at the start of September?
 
acnumber9 said:
Steady, yes. Prompted by some of the things you’re saying and eat out to help out etc. They’ve exploded after schools opening though. And there’s no signs of the tighter restrictions on households making a difference. Are we pretending that everybody came back from holiday right at the start of September?
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I don't think the extra restrictions are helping either, largely because they are not enforced, and are being ignored.

Schools probably are a problem, but we're not seeing the numbers reported that we are with universities. I think another problem is that fatigue and indifference has set in. People just don't seem to care anymore. Even in workplaces, the vague government change of stance to work at home where possible is being ignored as simply 'advice' rather than a rule.
 
11101 said:
Yeah, i know lots of people who have had the swab and it doesn't sound pleasant.


Anyway, good to see the process is so efficient. Not so good to see the UK government website knows more about Italy's procedures than Italy.
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I think the Mayor of Rome may possibly have made this decision, because they had huge signs up with the City's crest and the latest mandatory-test countries on it. It didn't suggest that this was a Government directive. I was surprised at the speed at which they'd been able to make the banners, quite honestly. When we checked in at London I asked the BA lady if the testing had started, and she said no, it'll be next week - but Rome had different ideas!

The test was free, you have to fill in a few forms, you take a number, see a doctor who prepares the test and walk to the next chair where someone else takes it. You then wait for 30 minutes maximum. There was only one other couple waiting there, it was a very quick service.

They give you a little slip to say you were tested, and the result. Useful for showing my neighbours who are scared of our village being infiltrated!
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Aren’t they talking about removing the 10pm thing?
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I think just in the northern areas last time I read.

It seems unfair and biased. To me they seem like they are reducing the stats on London to try keep the economy going in such an area.


I've heard other mayors in northern areas saying that they wont listen to the government to close down pubs.

This is the type of problem that occurs when you pretend that the problem is occurring only in certain areas of England when in reality its effecting everyone and the whole of england should go to lockdown atleast for things like pubs and clubs.
 
A fair few uni of Manchester students in hospital judging by reports today. Not good, but we still have a lot of tired people maybe optimistically promoting no new measures. I can’t think of a worse point of the season to be anything but cautious.
 
RedRover said:
Whilst that may be true, in terms of their current positions which countries are significantly better off? Everywhere in Europe we're seeing a resurgence of cases. Nobody has unlocked this, perhaps because, without a vaccine the stark reality is you can't supress or control a virus like this without completely shutting down and causing chaos.

People still keep mentioning Cummings even now. Where I live at least 50% of the people (if not more) will still have no idea who he is because they take no interest in politics. If they're flouting rules it's not because they've seen him doing it, it's because they are either no longer (or for whatever reason were never) scared of the virus and want to get on with their lives and do what they always do. Rightly or wrongly, that's how I believe it is.

New Zealand's course of action seems heavily dependent on suppressing until (and if) there is a vaccine because without, they've just kicked the can down the road. Their PM may be popular now but the tide can soon turn if there's an economic effect, or if there's an outbreak months after the rest of the world has seen the worst of it.

However charismatic you are, I personally don't believe you can convince a majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. All over the world people are tiring of this. It's human nature. Forcing a change like that on people needs a threat behind it. History tells us that. The threat of the virus is now a normal part of life which many, many people are clearly prepared to accept.
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You do know that NZ has zero cases, so has now opened up like usual? Bars restaurants, stadiums, theaters etc. Are all going as normal now, as there's no actual virus around to fear, and if any cases come up, they can be traced and quarantined quite easily.

So yes, they had to spend months in lockdown, but now they're reaping the benefits and can live life as normal, no masks etc. And I guess the economy is probably doing better off than the ones around here who have to keep intermittently shutting down and placing restrictions until a vaccine is available.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Apparently as well as the new test coming back negative, they also re-tested the original swab which has now also come back negative. Does that make any sense at all?
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I guess that makes false positive on first test result more likely? Her physician will know best. As per article linked above, test validity influenced by clinical picture (i.e. pre test probability)
 
Bebestation said:
I think just in the northern areas last time I read.

It seems unfair and biased. To me they seem like they are reducing the stats on London to try keep the economy going in such an area.


I've heard other mayors in northern areas saying that they wont listen to the government to close down pubs.

This is the type of problem that occurs when you pretend that the problem is occurring only in certain areas of England when in reality its effecting everyone and the whole of england should go to lockdown atleast for things like pubs and clubs.
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Yeah, the local lockdowns just seem like a way to effectively lock down the North step by step.
 
MPs were also shown early research by Public Health England suggesting that bars, pubs and restaurants accounted for 41% of cases in which two or more under-30s had visited the same venue in the week before testing positive. This fell to a quarter of infections across all age groups, the MPs were told.
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Link

Shows there is at least some evidence for closing restaurants/pubs.
 
Penna said:
Just on our way from the airport now - the airline said nothing about it, but we were told by the border police to go get a test, which we did. Results came in half an hour (both negative).

I wouldn’t recommend the nasal swab unless you like having something shoved up as far as your eye socket (twice). :lol:

Edit - the police checked your result before you were allowed to leave, they were making sure no-one slipped in and out without the test.
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I did the nasal swab on myself only put it as far up my nostril as was comfortable (not very far) and it worked as far as I know and came back negative.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
My grandma (85 years old) is in hospital the middle of chemo and yesterday tested positive for covid after running a temperature. Today she tested negative. No idea what's going on.

How accurate are these tests? Is a false positive or false negative more likely?
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Best wishes to your gran mate, hope she is doing ok.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Link

Shows there is at least some evidence for closing restaurants/pubs.
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I saw the tweet about this and the sample size looked tiny. 408 people in total and the ‘pub’ category was lumped into pretty much every type of social activity. Worrying if that’s what’s guiding policy. Not saying pubs might not be a problem but with 10-20k cases per day now surely they can come up with something a bit more robust.
 
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