SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

ArmandTamzarian said:
At least the US seems to be releasing large numbers of testing kits to the states this week. It'll be interesting to see if theres a surge in confirmed cases.
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There already is.

The number of new cases per day needs to peak and then it will start to fall.

You can draw a graph to produce a curve that will show the expected total number of cases and length of outbreak.

The Italy graph was looking horrific with a steeply climbing line. They want the climbing line to get shallower and flatten.

UK numbers have been increasing until today, most probably a blip.
 
Revan said:
Unless of course, the summer doesn't do anything to the virus. It affected its closest cousin (SARS) a bit, and it just didn't affect its second cousin (MERS) at all (in fact, MERS originated in Saudi Arabia during the summer when it is over 40 C). And then we get 20-60% of the world population infected, tens of millions dying (more die if there is not adequate medical support, which won't be if the numbers get high). And the businesses will be crippled with that many sick people.

I think a lot of people are missing the point, and having a fundamental problem of not understanding exponential functions. Yes, at the moment the risk of dying (or even getting sick) is very low. Heck, you're more likely to die from flu (it kills 400k per year or 100 times more than this virus). But the number of infected people is growing exponentially. It took 3 months to reach 100k, it would take 6 days from now to reach 200k, 12 days to reach 400k, and a month to reach 1 million people. 3 months to reach one billion. Of course, it is not gonna be like this thanks to the massive efforts of China who bought a lot of time to the world, but in other countries, it is still going exponentially, and that is extremely worrying.

Even a very optimistic scenario is saying that 20% of people will get it (the forecasts are saying 20-60%), and if we assume a mortality rate of 0.65% (South Korea), that kills 10m people (as much as flu would kill for the next 30 years). The death rate will be higher, cause the medical system won't be able to support these many people. If we go for the worst-case scenario (60% infected, the mortality rate of 3.5%, like WHO is saying) then 160 million people are gonna die from it within the year. That is more than in both world wars combined.

No panic, just another flu, we will get used to it, and I hope that my stocks don't lose value!
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it's not so much what summer does to the virus, although Coronavirus does tend to thrive better in cold damp conditions, it's that the better weather improves the outcomes for people who do get infected (symptoms tend to be less severe, and the illness has a shorter duration).

I do understand the exponential nature of these infections (e.g. each infected person passes the virus on to 4 more, and then those 4 do likewise etc.). The reality is that, in a fairly short space of time, almost everybody is likely to be exposed to this virus, and this will happen irrespective of the precautions we take. The precautions will slow down the spread, but not stop it. If history is a guide, the infection rate is unlikely to go beyond about 20%, many of whom will be undiagnosed (either because they are asymptomatic, or the symptoms are mild and resemble a cold). If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.

The mortality rate will most likely be between 1-2% - the figures in Italy look higher because most cases which don't result in a serious illness aren't being diagnosed. So we may be looking at 0.4% (2% of 20%) of the world's population dying as a result of this virus, so around 31 million. That's a big figure, but it still represents just 0.4% of the population, and the deaths will be skewed towards older and sicker people.

The virus will gradually lose its potency as the surviving population develops resistance to it, and the virus itself evolves.
 
i bet all the TP hoarders in Italy are feeling pretty smug right now

shame they'll all starve to death but at least they can wipe their bums
 
Grinner said:
I'd happily give it to Trump, Rush, Hannity and Mitch.
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You need to give it to Pence too. Did you watch the briefing?

It seemed to me that Pence was deflecting everything either to Trump above or to the doctors below (who I can almost guarantee are willingly setting themselves to be scapegoats for this shit).

He must be secretly hoping Trump dies from it.
 
mariachi-19 said:
USA is fecking fecked. Jesus christ this should be free for everybody at the moment.

If there ever was a perfect storm for Sanders and universal health care...
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No kidding. If you’re positive and quarantined, you could be looking at 5 figures on the bill.

This was the bill for someone who tested positive for the flu...
At least one American has already incurred hefty bills for seeking treatment for what he feared might be a coronavirus infection. When he developed flu-like symptoms after returning to Miami from a work trip to China, Osmel Martinez Azcue took himself to Jackson Memorial Hospital for testing. He asked for a flu test instead of the CT scan hospital staff wanted to conduct.

The flu test came back positive. Two weeks later, Azcue received an insurance claim for $3,270. His portion: $1,400.
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https://qz.com/1809382/us-health-care-costs-could-help-coronavirus-spread/
 
mariachi-19 said:
USA is fecking fecked. Jesus christ this should be free for everybody at the moment.

If there ever was a perfect storm for Sanders and universal health care...
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I've pretty much come to the conclusion that nothing will change at least as long as the boomers are still in charge. Good health insurance =earned privilege-->feck everyone else. Says the generation who could afford cars and homes on cashier jobs, incurred little to no college debt, and had pension plans and rich healthcare plans everywhere. Because all of that was earned and everyone else is just bitching. And if one of em has barely anything in old age - well then just look at the next poor schmuck "below" you, say the same thing and God bless America. /rant
 
rpitroda said:
So I was on a floor in my office 2 days after someone on it apparently was sent home with symptoms and later confirmed.

So I looked at the online form on NHS 111 to determine if I need to do anything.

Effectively going through the questions that the criteria they are setting to even get in touch with 111, let alone get tested, are ridiculous.

I am now convinced that there are many cases out there which are going undetected. Even if someone has all the symptoms, you won’t be asked to change anything unless you’ve either a) been to a select list of countries (fair enough) or b) have been in close proximity to someone with it. The latter is what’s concerning me. The criteria for that are along the lines of touching bodily fluid of someone confirmed, being within 2 metres for 15+ minutes, etc...

I’m fully cognisant that they need to be really selective to not overload the healthcare system but the things that struck me most were that a) it doesn’t advise self isolate, instead implicitly stating carry on as normal (which is wrong and inconsistent messaging to what the government is saying and b) I feel the criteria they are setting is so hardline that I think the bar is too high.

Issue I have with it is the combination of the above is effectively significant increasing the risk of transmission.
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Similar. A work colleague has just told me that his roommate came back from Milan 2 weeks ago and is now showing symptoms. After berating him for not self isolating, I checked to see what I need to do now and all the advice is basically "nah don't bother doing anything until you yourself are doubled over with symptoms".

If the roommate has it then the colleague probably had it and I likely have it.
 
feck me, what a shitty situation. Not surprised it went down the shitter here in Europe, but still, once you realise it, it is a different feeling. Will be complete chaos til the summer. At least climate change bringing in hot temperatures could be good for something.
 
Having a bit of nausea now, and a bit of fever/temperature. My throat is fine though.

Dunno, probably just a cold, but who knows. With encouragement to work from home, I am doing that for the next two weeks.
 
Steerpike said:
it's not so much what summer does to the virus, although Coronavirus does tend to thrive better in cold damp conditions, it's that the better weather improves the outcomes for people who do get infected (symptoms tend to be less severe, and the illness has a shorter duration).
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No, it is cold dry conditions (i.e. Winter) in which these viruses typically thrive.

Steerpike said:
If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.
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It won’t be ready by all accounts in that timeframe, certainly not in a manner to effectively prevent transmission on a wide scale. You’re talking rubbish.
 
Stactix said:
That interview with the Culture of Sec just shows how unprepared and complict this government are.
No checks on multiple flights from the quarrantine zone in Italy on arrival in the UK and expecting the cabin crew to diagnose corono

Baffling.
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Milan Malpensa were doing temperature checks at the point they had less cases than the UK and look how well that turned out.
 
Giggs86 said:
Agreed. The media's goal is to sell a story and keep us hooked. Reporting positive stuff about the vast majority who have recovered is boring and not exciting enough to sell. Who wants to listen to folks talk about them having a cold. Hence all the drama and focus on the negative.
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And almost irrelevant. Even the fatality rate isn't that important (apart from the poor sods who die). They key things are that it is a new virus with no natural immunity (yet), not treatment and no vaccine (maybe a year, maybe never). Of the people who it 7-10% need to be hospitalised, of those hospitalised 5% require an ICU bed for (days? weeks?). This means that most heath services will be overwhelmed if only 1 or 2% of the population get the virus at any one time.

This is why we need to try to stop or slow the spread. Overwhelmed health services cause the most panic in a way we haven't seen yet.
 
Steerpike said:
If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.
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It won't be.

Even if we develop one, and there is no assurance that we will, it won't be developed, trialed, approved, manufactured on a large enough scale and distributed sufficiently by next winter. No way.
 
Acole9 said:
There seems to be a lot of sensationalism in the media. Has anyone noticed that they haven't really interviewed anyone after they've recovered? It's because they seem to be more interested in reporting the bad than the positive.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51714162/how-i-recovered-from-coronavirus-and-isolation
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/07/coronavirus-cruise-ship-couple-reunited-orig-acl.cnn
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-survivor-in-china-recounts-fear-confusion
https://news.sky.com/story/fighting...itish-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631

There’s a lot of sensationalism in your post
 
Wibble said:
And almost irrelevant. Even the fatality rate isn't that important (apart from the poor sods who die). They key things are that it is a new virus with no natural immunity (yet), not treatment and no vaccine (maybe a year, maybe never). Of the people who it 7-10% need to be hospitalised, of those hospitalised 5% require an ICU bed for (days? weeks?). This means that most heath services will be overwhelmed if only 1 or 2% of the population get the virus at any one time.

This is why we need to try to stop or slow the spread. Overwhelmed health services cause the most panic in a way we haven't seen yet.
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In addition, the number of fatalities will be much higher if the Health system is overwhelmed, there aren’t enough beds, not enough doctors and nurses, not enough medicine, there aren’t enough oxygen masks and so on. It could easily be the difference between 0.5% mortality rate, and 3% mortality rate, which could be the difference between tens of millions of people dying or not.

The most important part now is to slow down the spread of the disease, even if eventually the accumulated number of affected people is the same.
 
Dante said:
So is London, to be fair. Which is why I think it's likely the virus has been here for weeks under the radar.
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There's a huge amount of traffic between northern Italy and China due to the textile industry.

In 2018 there were 3m visitors from China to Italy whereas it was only 300k for the UK.

I think we'll all be looking at social avoidance school closures etc soon enough in any case to slow this thing down so the respective health services can cope.

I hadn't realised the no immunity in the population bit which accounts for a much higher infection rate then another variant of flu, for example.

I still don't understand why everyone's stock piling jax roll and pasta though.
 
711 said:
Winter isn't dry in a lot of places, in Lancashire it's incredibly damp, humid and wet. It's good for spinning cotton though, made our fortune from that.
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It will be in most places due to the volume water vapor contained in air based on temperature.

But this isn’t a place for a relative vs absolute humidity discussion...
 
Only 18 new cases in China today. They seem to have pulled the impossible.
 
Im red2 said:
Anyone know this guy?
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I thought that video was so awesome that I looked a bit into this guy. His curriculum is certainly the sort of one I would expect from one of the best prepared persons to understand this.

It's pure conjecture but I see this happening a bit everywhere and it gives me hope. Top notch doctors from this field are so tired of watching our governments fail at so many steps that they are taking the conversation to the public, probably after having exhausted more direct means of communication with the politicians.

He's a brilliant communicator and summarizes everything very well. He is also extremely careful with every single word he says, which make almost all of his statements very hard to contest.

Compare that with someone lile this guy:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_S._Fauci
An immensely famous doctor who I just saw behaving like an idiot at the hands of Mike Pence. He knows everything. But he's politically compromised. We need people from outside politics to take the reins.

This may explain things like Italy today finally taking a major step. And Portugal.
 
Grinner said:
What should you be taking if you have symptoms? Does anything help at all?
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Not much really

The internet's have me the following:
Rest and sleep
Keep warm
Drink plenty of liquids
Use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough

I presume the usual ibuprofen if you're in pain or have a slight fever.
 
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