SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Kentonio]

Johnson had this to say at the weekend:

"One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures."

I doubt that the NHS is equipped to deal with the huge spike in demand that would surely occur in this scenario, but it does look like we might be about to put that theory to the test.

Hmm, let's take a look at the death rates..

80+ years old ​	14.8%​
70-79 years old ​	8.0%​
60-69 years old ​	3.6%​

Now let's take a look at the UK population in those age ranges..

80+ years old ​	2,592,693​
70-79 years old ​	3,956,219​
60-69 years old ​	6,051,323​

So that would suggest a rough death rate of..

80+ years old ​	383,718​
70-79 years old ​	316,497​
60-69 years old ​	217,847​

Now I think letting 918,062 UK citizens die might be pushing it a bit even for a Tory..

 

[Grinner]

For context, chances of dying:

Catching COVID-19 aged 10-40 = 1 in 500
Hang gliding = 1 in 560

Those odds aren't too terrible.

Unfortunately, if you are over the age of 70 and catch COVID-19, your chances of dying are comparable to those of someone climbing above 6000m in the Himalayas (approximately 1 in 10).

But how many people go hang gliding compared to how many will likely catch this virus?

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Hmm, let's take a look at the death rates..

80+ years old ​	14.8%​
70-79 years old ​	8.0%​
60-69 years old ​	3.6%​

Now let's take a look at the UK population in those age ranges..

80+ years old ​	2,592,693​
70-79 years old ​	3,956,219​
60-69 years old ​	6,051,323​

So that would suggest a rough death rate of..

80+ years old ​	383,718​
70-79 years old ​	316,497​
60-69 years old ​	217,847​

Now I think letting 918,062 UK citizens die might be pushing it a bit even for a Tory..

Those death rates are providing 100% of those people actually get the disease, right?

 

[Dante]

Does COVID-19 give you the runs?

I don't believe so. Which makes the whole toilet paper hoarding phenomenon even stupiderer.

On a side note, I had all these symptoms two weeks ago after a trip to London. But I got over it after a single night's sleep. Hopefully I got and survived, with nothing further to worry about.

 

[VeevaVee]

There's a doctor who has made a Facebook post saying that Covid-19 is coming and it's not much to worry about. It's been shared 200k times.

While he makes a valid point that panic buying supplies is wrong, I can't help but feel his message is irresponsible in other ways.

What do you guys think?



He says he's scared that travel restrictions will ruin people's weddings, family reunions and the Olympics.

Just seems like a weird post. And of course it's been picked up by the "nothing to worry about" lot to propogate that Covid-19 is business as usual.


@Arruda
@Pogue Mahone

Doctors get put on a pedestal as some kind of oracle of trustworthy opinion, but they're just people at the end of the day. Their opinions will come from experience and knowledge but also emotion and their general personality. There's also probably quite a few that think quite highly of themselves and might have experience with treating cases of viruses and disease but as far as I know that doesn't mean they're experts on pandemics.

 

[spiriticon]

This graph is very interesting. Does it suggest that if we do allow it to run unchecked through the population then this whole epidemic will be over in a shorter amount of time compared to if we implement crowd bans?

 

[Kentonio]

Those death rates are providing 100% of those people actually get the disease, right?

Yup. And if the government are serious about letting it just pass through the population you can maybe half that?

 

[Kentonio]

I don't believe so. Which makes the whole toilet paper hoarding phenomenon even stupiderer.

On a side note, I had all these symptoms two weeks ago after a trip to London. But I got over it after a single night's sleep. Hopefully I got and survived, with nothing further to worry about.

I think there was a stat saying about 10-15% suffer diarrhea. I could be on the number wrong though.

 

[Ian Reus]

Spain getting hit hard now 326 new cases, totalling 1000 in total, thats 1000 cases in 2 weeks.

Particularly worrying for me as there are many direct flights to Lima daily from both major Spanish cities.

I dread to see how a private health care system in a 3rd world country can survive through this initial outbreak

 

[zing]

Thanks for posting this. I accidentally caught Hand Gliding On a tube once. Scared me shitless.

 

[11101]

I think there was a stat saying about 10-15% suffer diarrhea. I could be on the number wrong though.

See below, 3.7%:

From the Chinese cases:

Symptom & Percentage
Fever87.9%
Dry cough67.7%
Fatigue38.1%
Sputum production33.4%
Shortness of breath18.6%
Muscle pain or joint pain14.8%
Sore throat13.9%
Headache13.6%
Chills11.4%
Nausea or vomiting5%
Nasal congestion4.8%
Diarrhoea3.7%
Haemoptysis0.9%
Conjunctival congestion0.8%

A lot of those are so common to other things.

However the virus might have changed slightly by now.

 

[redshaw]

Germany two deaths now.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-n...tish-supermarkets-move-to-avert-panic-buying/

Still can't find any info on how many have been tested in Germany.

 

[Paxi]

Those death rates are providing 100% of those people actually get the disease, right?

But you have many more people in UK who suffer from various comorbidities whom are various ages, those people will likely require ICU care. The country is usually stretched for beds as it is, never mind handling anywhere near amount of 1 million plus very poorly patients. Since the health care will be overwhelmed, the CFR will likely to go up further.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

But you have many more people in UK who suffer from various comorbidities whom are various ages, those people will likely require ICU care. The country is usually stretched for beds as it is, never mind handling anywhere near amount of 1 million plus very poorly patients. Since the health care will be overwhelmed, the CFR will likely to go up further.

I agree that we could well see a total log-jam in our ICU departments to the point of thousands dying, but I still find it unlikely that 100% of the UK population will get the virus.

 

[Arruda]

Those death rates are providing 100% of those people actually get the disease, right?

Those death rates are an average of plenty different places and situations. Your death rate in Macao is not the same as in Milan.

They are not "providing" nothing, they're just a picture. Subject to change at any given time.

If infection rates do no slow down dramatically I doubt those rates will remain like that.

 

[Precaution]

Thing is, if you got the runs.. toilet paper is bloody useless anyway, you'll end up clogging the toilet, might aswell jump in the shower and give yourself a ol wet hand and its much easier and effective, idiots.

 

[Kentonio]

But you have many more people in UK who suffer from various comorbidities whom are various ages, those people will likely require ICU care. The country is usually stretched for beds as it is, never mind handling anywhere near amount of 1 million plus very poorly patients. Since the health care will be overwhelmed, the CFR will likely to go up further.

That's the real worry, and the reason I can't for the life of me understand why the government would even be considering something like this. Anything with such a high hospitalization rate for the elderly coming during winter where they're already straining NHS capacity to its limit just seems like a recipe for utter and complete disaster.

 

[Paxi]

Sounds like you both need to search for some middle ground.

I'm just telling my family to keep social distancing, taking extra care about hygine ie using hand sanitiser frequently etc. Most of them are self employed and meet a lot of different people, handle goods, documents, money. I mean there's no middle ground there to be found they need to get used to doing it or they will get infected and then they'll infected our grandmother as they visit her every day.
Also trying persuade my grandmother to stay in the house whilst one of my family delivers all the necessities whilst this blows over isn't too much to ask. She's very frail, she knows her conditions and if she gets this virus she will be extremely compromised.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Those death rates are an average of plenty different places and situations. Your death rate in Macao is not the same as in Milan.

They are not "providing" nothing, they're just a picture. Subject to change at any given time.

If infection rates do no slow down dramatically I doubt those rates will remain like that.

I agree, but please take a look at what I was quoting.

He was suggesting 900k people in the UK will die - which assumes that everybody here will get it.

 

[Paxi]

That's the real worry, and the reason I can't for the life of me understand why the government would even be considering something like this. Anything with such a high hospitalization rate for the elderly coming during winter where they're already straining NHS capacity to its limit just seems like a recipe for utter and complete disaster.

I really don't get it either. To be fair the whole world is being reactive on this, governments and general population. Then, after this shit show we will have a big inquest into why so many people died. Won't bring them back though.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

That's the real worry, and the reason I can't for the life of me understand why the government would even be considering something like this. Anything with such a high hospitalization rate for the elderly coming during winter where they're already straining NHS capacity to its limit just seems like a recipe for utter and complete disaster.

Exactly this. Apparently there's shy of 170,000 hospital beds in the UK total. Christ knows how many are actually available right now. I think it's fair to say not many. It would only need a small fraction of the population to be infected before it collapsed under the strain.

Do we even have the skills and grit to knock up extra hospitals in mere days like they've done in China? I would suggest not.

I think ignoring it is idiotic at best and grossly negligent at worst and by the end of next week the shit will have well and truly hit the fan. Of course I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Do we even have the skills and grit to knock up extra hospitals in mere days like they've done in China? I would suggest not.

All that is mostly regulations, health & safety and human rights. Those factors were always going to make the western response different to the Chinese one.

 

[Kentonio]

I really don't get it either. To be fair the whole world is being reactive on this, governments and general population. Then, after this shit show we will have a big inquest into why so many people died. Won't bring them back though.

I’m shitting it because my elderly mum back in the UK is frail as hell, trying to recover from a bad fall, and in and out of hospital regularly. Hearing the government sounding so relaxed about people like her potentially catching something that would probably kill her is filling me with a deep and very dark rage.

 

[Skills]

Exactly this. Apparently there's shy of 170,000 hospital beds in the UK total. Christ knows how many are actually available right now. I think it's fair to say not many. It would only need a small fraction of the population to be infected before it collapsed under the strain.

Do we even have the skills and grit to knock up extra hospitals in mere days like they've done in China? I would suggest not.

I think ignoring it is idiotic at best and grossly negligent at worst and by the end of next week the shit will have well and truly hit the fan. Of course I hope I'm wrong.

Also as we're going to be crashing and burning at the sametime as the rest of the world, we'll be competing for the same resources (new beds, hospital equipment etc). I don't believe, we manufacture much of that within the country

 

[Paxi]

I agree that we could well see a total log-jam in our ICU departments to the point of thousands dying, but I still find it unlikely that 100% of the UK population will get the virus.

100% of population wont get it of course, but I think epidemiologists were modeling this outbreak and their prediction is as high as 60% in the first year - that's for the whole world. Forgive me, I can't remember where I heard about this, hence no source on this. In any case it's still a huge number of people if we were conservative and said 30% of the population got sick. If you do the math, that is a still very large number and it would still have dire consequences for everyone in the world.

 

[sullydnl]

Regarding government action, Hancock today said:

"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."

I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?

 

[Paxi]

I’m shitting it because my elderly mum back in the UK is frail as hell, trying to recover from a bad fall, and in and out of hospital regularly. Hearing the government sounding so relaxed about people like her potentially catching something that would probably kill her is filling me with a deep and very dark rage.

I'm in the same boat. I'm down to my last grandparent, having recently lost my grandfather, so I'm extra cautious with her. Trying to protect whom I have left I guess. She's very frail too, she has been suffering hypertension for years and has a myriad of other ailments so I dred her getting it. I really do fear the worst. I'm also getting a bit of a vibe that 'oh it's only the old people that are at risk so we carry on as normal' which I find a bit sickening really. That's someone's mother and father, grandmother and grandfather potentially. Also, really sorry about your mother, I really hope she gets better soon.

 

[Kentonio]

Regarding government action, Hancock today said:

"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."

I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?

I suppose they can’t shut down everything indefinitely, so it’s logical to wait until the outbreak on the continent is at a high before going for extreme measures. It doesn’t explain why they aren’t seemingly doing any kind of testing/control at the borders though.

 

[Kentonio]

I'm in the same boat. I'm down to my last grandparent, having recently lost my grandfather, so I'm extra cautious with her. Trying to protect whom I have left I guess. She's very frail too, she has been suffering hypertension for years and has a myriad of other ailments so I dred her getting it. I really do fear the worst. I'm also getting a bit of a vibe that 'oh it's only the old people that are at risk so we carry on as normal' which I find a bit sickening really. That's someone's mother and father, grandmother and grandfather potentially. Also, really sorry about your mother, I really hope she gets better soon.

Thanks man, hope your grandma improves soon too.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

So how is everyone responding to the virus threat?
Living life as normal or avoiding public transport and avoiding going to the pub / cinema / restaurants, concerts etc?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

So how is everyone responding to the virus threat?
Living life as normal or avoiding public transport and avoiding going to the pub / cinema / restaurants, concerts etc?

I've now started avoiding any social interactions which aren't necessary and am working from home.

 

[Paxi]

All that is mostly regulations, health & safety and human rights. Those factors were always going to make the western response different to the Chinese one.

Yeah Chinese have a lot of man power and hence the quick mobilisation of staff. Obviously most of the materials needed are made in China. It would be physically impossible to undertake such task for UK government and it's citizens.

 

[Paxi]

Thanks man, hope your grandma improves soon too.

Thanks mate.

 

[Giggs86]

Me too. I have asthma (albeit in a good state, I run and play football and go to the gym and need an inhaler maybe once a week/fortnight) and working with 3000 other people in a building in Croydon is doing my head in. So many colds and bugs going round, don't really want to be in anymore.

Same thing here, got allergic asthma under control and I use controller inhaler about once a week. Wondering if that condition can make my symptoms worse if I ever catch it.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

I really don't get it either. To be fair the whole world is being reactive on this, governments and general population. Then, after this shit show we will have a big inquest into why so many people died. Won't bring them back though.

And I guarantee you the blame will be put on the NHS.

 

[711]

It would be interesting to survey people in six months time, something along the lines of Q1: did you make significant attempts to increase personal hygiene according to government advice this year, or did you not bother? Q2: Do you think you contracted coronavirus? Logic and gut feeling says the extra washing should make a difference, but I'm not a hundred percent convinced.

It wouldn't measure whether non-washers had infected anyone else of course, that would be more complicated.

 

[Starkie_1]

So how is everyone responding to the virus threat?
Living life as normal or avoiding public transport and avoiding going to the pub / cinema / restaurants, concerts etc?

Business as usual for me, although making more of a point to watch what I touch and wash after particularly at the gym. Off to the Spurs game Sunday and usual work/restaurants/cinema/pubs at weekends. Japan in a few weeks.

My company works in schools and our main contract confirmed today they’re expecting closure towards the Easter holidays. More so because they have to be seen doing something but the big wigs in the education sectors of the council think they’ll do this rather than cancel big events anytime soon. Economy to worry about.

 

[Arruda]

Regarding government action, Hancock today said:

"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."

I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?

This seems so speculative and weird. "Scientific advice" really says nothing.

"Scientific advice" needs to be dinstinguished from "advice from a scientist". Scientists also conjecture. A lot, obviously.

 

[Drifter]

Ladies and gentlemen. The Health and Human Services Secretary of the US



This is where the priorities of the WH lie.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Regarding government action, Hancock today said:

"The scientific advice is clear: acting too early creates its own risk. So we will do what is right to keep people safe. Guided by the science, we will act at the right time."

I'm assuming the risk he's referring to is that if heavy measures are brought in too early their effectiveness may have declined by the time the virus hits its peak (which is when you really want them in place)? Or is he referring to something else?

Because that worked out well for everyone else?

How about use your eyes and see the measures taken by some of the Asian countries in controlling this effectively.

Hancock is every bit a fool as Boris.