SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Brwned said:
But why not comment on all of the data, rather than one piece here and there? How does your theory fit what has happened in South Africa, where they re-opened schools in August but have kept the 7 day average at around 1500, a little lower than when the schools opened? If they start to spike in a month's time, will you say that it was just a delayed effect? How does it fit what has happened in Japan, where they re-opened schools when they were at their absolute peak, and months afterwards they've been hovering at 500-700 cases consistently in September and October? If opening schools played the role you say they do, such an obvious one too, how is it that it doesn't apply in these completely different countries with completely different approaches and completely different trajectories? How is it that countries had these inexplicable spikes while schools were off for the summer?

These aren't me picking holes in the theory. The causal mechanism can only be true if it applied in all of these scenarios, and it just doesn't. Isn't it more plausible that schools are just one of the factors that caused a spike in NI, and most of Western Europe, because of a general relaxation in adherence that coincided with schools re-opening? i.e. the thing that drove the spikes in the US - just carrying on like normal, as you put it - is what gradually crept into play in most of the West. You can't point to it as a single event written on a piece of paper, so it's a less satisfying explanation. It's also a bit of a loose definition, and so it can't explain everything. But at least it doesn't have those critical flaws.
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Because the first ones I looked at you were completely wrong on and I don’t know enough about other factors in South Africa to really comment. Which is why I’ve tried to concentrate on what I do know. You’re not considering differences in class sizes etc. Many countries have had staggered schooling. We don’t.

You keep stating these things as fact when they aren’t. Japan re-opened schools on 18 May. Their peak was in July.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Ireland is proving its possible to turn things round without closing schools. 416 cases today. A third of the peak of our second wave. A downturn that started when the kids were still at school and still far too soon for half term to have had any effect on case numbers (6 days into school holidays and average incubation period 5-6 days)

I don’t think the UK really have “tried everything else”. The measures we took in Ireland which turned things round would be a start. An end to indoor dining/drinking in pubs/restaurants and no more multi household gatherings. Anywhere in the country. The UK govt are belatedly (as usual) doing what needs to be done, so things should improve in another 10-14 days time.
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Hopefully it continues but I have my doubts. Or at least have my doubts that schools are safer than many of the places closing.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
First aisle was fruit and veg. Halfway down it switches to Dairy. Decent amount of energy drinks and sandwiches. At the back is fresh meats and ready meals. Back corner is freezers and then on to the bakery. Final bend is Alcohol, not a great selection but they have what I needed.

I steer clear of the middle section as there’s so much temptation there! It’s where you’ll find chocolate, cereals, crisps and such.

The only time I dare venture there is to go to the ‘Countries’ section. I grab West Indian bits as well as a can of Irn Bru. It’s kept on a special shelf as it’s from Scotland.

Hope that helps.
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:)

Been a shit week... JJ, Nobby, Connery.

But for a couple of seconds, that made me smile. Thanks.
 
Buster15 said:
They were terrible. Far too much information. When I used to make presentations, the vu graphs had to be clear and concise such that I didn't have to explain the data.
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I remember work sending me on a PowerPoint/Presentation course years ago and the one thing I remember was "keep the slides 'light' and bullet point".

I don't think they envisaged explaining Covid 19 impacts easily. Tough gig.
 
Well, selfishly I am pissed. My fiance has applied for a fiance visa, done her biometrics last week. So 2 questions:

1) Does this mean the home office will be closed or will continue as is?

2) I cannot go travel to see my fiance who lives abroad?
 
LARulz said:
Well, selfishly I am pissed. My fiance has applied for a fiance visa, done her biometrics last week. So 2 questions:

1) Does this mean the home office will be closed or will continue as is?
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Likely to be continuing to work, but with reduced capacity. I imagine everything will take longer.

LARulz said:
2) I cannot go travel to see my fiance who lives abroad?
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Correct.
 
Will this prevent me from seeing my wife and kids? We live in the same house but I'm hoping to figure out a reason to avoid them all.
 
Berbasbullet said:
I went earlier, it was actually fairly quiet considering, but I’m in wales so might be different.
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I go and do my shopping early. Tesco's I get round really easier as there around 7.30 in the morning and back home around an hour later. The only thing I would say with Tesco is the lads/lassies blocking off the aisle while doing the online grocerie sh
Rado_N said:
Aldi early this afternoon, maybe 2ish, was fine. No queues to get in, plenty of stock, walked straight to an empty checkout once done.

Even managed to get some bog roll.
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I went to Aldi last Thursday get there before eight, and going to Tesco this Thursday, get there around 7.30. It is lovely and quiet then, can get round easily and get everything I want. I just get my usual shopping every week. Why do people panic? We are not going to run out of stuff unless they themselves cause the shortage.
 
Maagge said:
Schools haven't been a problem in Denmark either as far as I can see.
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Not sure they are. The senior school near me, each year has one section of the school to themselves, they do not change classroom, it is the teacher who change classes. They wear masks in all communal areas, there are staggered dinnertimes. If kids catch anything if will likely be from silly adults who they mix with outside school.
 
From the Beeb live page.

Analysis: PM has been avoiding this for weeks
Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Boris Johnson has been trying to avoid this for weeks.

The scientists called for a circuit-breaker weeks ago – Labour have been doing the same for the last fortnight.

The government is still defending the local lockdown strategy but things have changed.

The graphs we saw in the press conference show a real risk the NHS could be overwhelmed if action isn’t taken now.

The PM’s argument is that he is reacting to a virus that is now spreading far quicker than feared.

But some will look at the warnings of the last few weeks and ask why this action wasn’t taken sooner.
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That's the first, and probably the last, instance of them drawing attention to Boris's actions.
 
They don't seem to have prepared any guidelines at all, it's a shambles. We can leave the house to exercise, but does that mean from home or can we drive places? We can meet one person from another household outdoors, but does that have to be the same person or can we see a different person every day? Minor matters compared to the horrors some have gone through I know, but the government's planning and preparation just never seems to improve.
 
Compton22 said:
I'm surprised the Beeb is even drawing attention to this
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DavidDeSchmikes said:
by the time the US Election comes around, stuff like this is all forgotten and disappears in the news cycle
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DavidDeSchmikes said:
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He's being too polite, like we all thought. He needs to fling insults. "That fat faced feck started acting all Billy Big Bollocks when I said we needed a lockdown weeks ago and, wooooah, suddenly now it's going ahead? feck off. I know the twat has trouble pulling out on time but this is the country he's fecking right now, not one of his gormless mistresses."
 
acnumber9 said:
Because the first ones I looked at you were completely wrong on and I don’t know enough about other factors in South Africa to really comment. Which is why I’ve tried to concentrate on what I do know. You’re not considering differences in class sizes etc. Many countries have had staggered schooling. We don’t.

You keep stating these things as fact when they aren’t. Japan re-opened schools on 18 May. Their peak was in July.
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Sure, but the core principle remains the same. Kids spread the disease a lot in school, whether it's in South Africa or NI. Nowhere have they found that to be the case, while there are many countries that have had their schools open for much longer that don't seem to fit this simple pattern: schools open, cases rise. If you're smart, you can see the correlation.
acnumber9 said:
Schools have been closed in that time period though. Two weeks up here but not sure about down south. I know you don’t want it to be true but you’re a smart man, surely you can see the correlation?
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Japan had a short summer break, and came back in August. There highest point was almost 2,000 cases right on the 3rd of August and they had over 1,000 cases a day between the 3rd - 10th August, while they only surpassed 1,000 in the last couple of days in July. But the point isn't when the precise peak was; again, that's a detail that distracts from the essential point. Since August, when they all came back after a short break, cases haven't spiked. You don't need to quibble about that, the numbers are straightforward.

What it tells us is that schools can be re-opened without leading to the spike that we saw in NI. And we already know that spike that happened in NI has happened elsewhere without schools re-opening. Those aren't theories. What you have is a theory that we know has some holes. I'm not putting forward a theory for why cases have spiked: I'm happy to say it's inconclusive. I'm not advocating to close schools or to keep them open. I'm just pointing out that the theory put forward based on the obvious evidence has a number of obvious flaws.

Anyway, we've exhausted the argument, and people have provided better evidence for you to argue against anyway. I won't pollute the thread any more.
sullydnl said:


The idea that these governments are just unwilling to admit that schools are a problem is silly. They don't control the narrative in the science community, nor are they manufacturing the research that tells us schools aren't a major problem.
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711 said:
They don't seem to have prepared any guidelines at all, it's a shambles. We can leave the house to exercise, but does that mean from home or can we drive places? We can meet one person from another household outdoors, but does that have to be the same person or can we see a different person every day? Minor matters compared to the horrors some have gone through I know, but the government's planning and preparation just never seems to improve.
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It is a shambles, they really should of had this as a further tier. Tier 4 - National lockdown and had it all prepared weeks in advance so when it came to roost which was fecking obvious even to me a month ago. Rules all set so people had an idea, time for things to get ridiculed and adjusted.
Obvious they weren't prepared when their pinned tweet from 10 days ago on the offical conservative page was basically mocking the thought of a second lockdown.
 
Brwned said:
Even when the scientists provide the evidence?

No-one is saying 14 year olds are properly social distancing at all times and taking all necessary precautions to limit the spread. They're saying that even in purely biological terms, irrespective of behaviour, they are less likely to spread it.

I didn't trust the politicians at all when they were saying it doesn't spread much amount kids teenagers but I don't see why we should doubt the significant number of independent scientists across the world that have come to the same conclusion, with separate pieces if evidence. All of the evidence is imperfect but why should we distrust their conclusions?
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In Australia schools have been involved in many of the outbreaks. I'm thinking that primary kids and secondary schools are very different things. The infection data I saw ages ago backed this up.
 
Wibble said:
In Australia schools have been involved in many of the outbreaks. I'm thinking that primary kids and secondary schools are very different things. The infection data I saw ages ago backed this up.
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All 6 schools in the MAT I work for has had multiple cases, namely staff. 6 of those primary. Not evidence based but I'd guess primary school aged kids are the most likely to not have symptoms but also the least likely to then be tested due to that.
Couple of staff members have had to go off after being confirmed postive. Classes they were in contact with are now isolating for the 2 weeks but none of the kids are being tested. So for all we know, 10 of those kids could have it or zero.

My opinion, while I hate that schools are open because I loved working from home as a large part of my job is definetly fully possible wfh. In terms of primary it's the right decision, I do the content upload for our remote learning.. many families won't have the tech or the knowhow to utilise the material. Teaching via zoom for a primary school... again has the same issue. Year 5-6 might be a possibility but below that..? it definetly isn't an adequate replacement for in person learning. I mean my girlfriends Uni course is entirely remote and that's an utter shite show, technical issues galore and lazy dull lecturers, 9k a year and it's a crock of shite and she's struggling due to it. Primary kids have little chance..

Personally think parents should be able to keep kids off like before.
Secondary schools have kids that can work from home but if they aren't adequately doing this they'll have to return
Uni's should be fully remote if possible.
 
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Wibble said:
In Australia schools have been involved in many of the outbreaks. I'm thinking that primary kids and secondary schools are very different things. The infection data I saw ages ago backed this up.
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Yeah that's beyond question at this point. Here's the data from the ONS' swabs on random samples of the UK population.

Throughout September, 0.17 - 0.21% of those aged 2-10 had the virus, increasing to 0.17% - 0.58% of those aged 11-14, and 0.27% - 1.39% of those aged 15-24. So young kids are half as likely as early teens, and early teens are half as likely as young adults.

We've seen increases among all age groups since then, but that hierarchy has basically never changed. So that's essentially the easy problem: we know they get infected less often. That's despite our general assumptions about young kids not adhering to most of the precautions as often, which might well lead to them having more close contact, and therefore being proportionately even more unlikely.

The harder question is whether they pass it on as often. But then you don't need to know that when you're talking about primary schoolkids sharing it among themselves in school: if they are less likely to get infected (because of ACE receptors or whatever theory we have), then even if schoolkids pass it onto people as often, they'll find it harder to pass it onto their peers. The evidence would suggest they also pass it onto people / adults less often too, though.

People of university age or just below lead the way at all times. Purely in biological terms they are as likely to get infected and as likely to infect others, and they get into more situations where they can do either, and because they tend to suffer less severe symptoms, they presumably are at higher risk of passing it on unwittingly. I don't get the university situation at all.
 
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