Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

take it with a pinch of salt as it comes from Russian sources:

Says Ukraine forces are 2km outside of Kupiansk and they’re (Russia) unlikely to hold it.
 
I don't think the Kherson offensive is intended as a deception but the fact that Russia has moved such a large amount of equipment and manpower there has opened up possibilties in other places.
Liberating Kherson is most likely still the main objective, it is a very important city economically speaking and the fact that it is on the wrong side of the Dnieper makes it very costly to defend for the Russians.

Looking at what is happening in Kharkiv it seems like the Russians have not prepared any secondary lines of defense and once the Ukrainians have penetrated the front lines they are able to push forward just by bypassing the cities and leaving the Russians trapped inside. It will be interesting to see if Russia has prepared any secondary lines of defense on the other side of the Dnieper in the Kherson area. If not, Ukraine might be able to cross the river when the Russian troops are retreating and establish a bridgehead for future offensives towards Crimea.
 
Kherson is not deception, but moving large numbers of manpower to defend it when you can't actually supply them, is irrational. Russian pride is their undoing, they won't acknowledge defeat and settle for less until they've been battered beyond possibility of hiding it.
 
Rajma said:
Rumors now that Shevchenkovoe direction is falling apart for Russians, if confirmed that would be huge from strategic point of view as the main supply route to Izium would now be under the artillery range.
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Seems like it's going really well so far for Ukraine in Kharkiv Oblast.



 
Watching videos from the Kharkiv offensive and one thing that really stands out is the lack of Russian tanks and artillery in the area, the whole area seems to have been defended by only infantry.
 
the hea said:
Watching videos from the Kharkiv offensive and one thing that really stands out is the lack of Russian tanks and artillery in the area, the whole area seems to have been defended by only infantry.
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Seems like Ukraine prepared well and got rid of a lot of heavy Russian equipment ahead of their charge. Precision guided long range artillery doing their job I presume.
 
Carolina Red said:
Truly, truly amazing how they keep losing senior officers because they’re right at the front lines
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For perspective, can anyone guesstimate how many soldiers of his rank Russia would have fighting in Ukraine. If he really is in charge of the West sector then it could be as little as 4 or 5 given that Russia seems to have divided its armies into their compass point positions, from North clockwise round to South. Lots of guesswork there though.
 
NicolaSacco said:
For perspective, can anyone guesstimate how many soldiers of his rank Russia would have fighting in Ukraine. If he really is in charge of the West sector then it could be as little as 4 or 5 given that Russia seems to have divided its armies into their compass point positions, from North clockwise round to South. Lots of guesswork there though.
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Russias military is dividend into 5 military districts, Western, Northern, Southern, Central and Eastern so their should be 5 officers of his rank. There have been reports that the troops fighting in Ukraine from the Eastern and Souther districts have been merged due to the losses sustained but that is still unconfirmed.
 
NicolaSacco said:
For perspective, can anyone guesstimate how many soldiers of his rank Russia would have fighting in Ukraine. If he really is in charge of the West sector then it could be as little as 4 or 5 given that Russia seems to have divided its armies into their compass point positions, from North clockwise round to South. Lots of guesswork there though.
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3 army Lieutenant Generals (East, Central, West) and 2 aerospace forces Lieutenant Generals. Their army forced in the South district for the invasion were commanded by a Colonel General.
 
Carolina Red said:
the hea said:
Russias military is dividend into 5 military districts, Western, Northern, Southern, Central and Eastern so their should be 5 officers of his rank. There have been reports that the troops fighting in Ukraine from the Eastern and Souther districts have been merged due to the losses sustained but that is still unconfirmed.
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3 army Lieutenant Generals (East, Central, West) and 2 aerospace forces Lieutenant Generals. Their army forced in the South district for the invasion were commanded by a Colonel General.
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Thanks for that info, seems like a big fish to catch.
 
There’s an interesting twitter feed that I can’t seem to link to, suggesting that his capture makes it likely that his forward HQ has been overrun, which should give the UAF some absolutely vital information about Russian army strengths, size, battle plans etc. I don’t know enough about warfare to know whether this is true but it certainly could be way bigger than the capture of the man himself.
 
NicolaSacco said:
There’s an interesting twitter feed that I can’t seem to link to, suggesting that his capture makes it likely that his forward HQ has been overrun, which should give the UAF some absolutely vital information about Russian army strengths, size, battle plans etc. I don’t know enough about warfare to know whether this is true but it certainly could be way bigger than the capture of the man himself.
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If the fella in charge of operations in that part of Ukraine worked out of somewhere in a liberated area, you'd imagine he needed to have access to some kind of intel or at least comms. Otherwise I don't know how he could do his job. Not that the Russians have been particularly great at doing their jobs in general, mind.
 
the hea said:
If it is him, yes that would be a big catch. So far the only evidence is the picture you posted and although it looks like him, Ukrainian officials has not confirmed anything yet.
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I was absolutely convinced by looking at the photographs, they have too many identical features. Could be wrong of course, we may not know for months. I’d expect Ukraine to want to keep this as quiet as possible for as long as possible; the only thing in military intelligence more dangerous than a known security leak is an unknown security leak, surely?
 
Izium is in real danger to be encircled and cut off completely, I’m speechless. Let’s pray for as few losses as possible for Ukrainian armed forces in this counteroffensive.

 
Apparently, Putin to hold an emergency operational Security Council meeting Today due to a threat of 10-15k Russian troops being cut off in Kharkiv.
 
Rajma said:
Try not to cry:
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Is this a troll Girkin account? So many followers & he has been around since 2014... I don't really follow him and I know that he's been heavily critical of Russian army but it still doesn't seem like something he would post.

Heartwarming stuff.
 
Fascinating how many news we get out of Kharkiv when we were expecting the big offensive to happen around Kherson. Ukraine really pulls of somthing surprising there.
 
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