Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
I looked it up, the 7m figure does seem to be mentioned by a couple of sources. So they're trying everything to avoid it? Could create resentment among their family members.

Anyway, that document would also then indeed somewhat confirm Ukraine's estimated numbers.
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Original numbers were 7,4 million for a dead family member and something incredible like 3 million for wounded. Obviously the first issues began with the wounded soldiers — in the first months they were paying everyone, then they've tried to limit it to serious injuries, I believe etc.

But since the official number of losses is classified and there's tons of different bureaucracy surrounding the "special military operation", it's not hard to at least to prolongate the waiting period if not to escape having to pay anything at all. Look at the amount of bodies of Russian soldiers that Ukrainians still store in their freezers (and have they been doing it for months) — if there's no body, a soldier is proclaimed to be MIA so no compensation is needed. There were also reports of army officials/officers somehow tricking the system and taking the compensation money for themselves.

The sinking of Moskva was one of the few cases where the massive fraud with those compensations got exposed since they've refused to admit that Moskva was even participating in the operation, let alone that it was sank by a Ukrainian missile.

It's really simple in the end — you can't build an effective system when the data that it's supposed to be based upon is classified and the government is invested in keeping both the number of losses and the number of compensations as low as possible. As for the resentment among the family members? Yeah. Deaths of their children are also supposed to create such resentment but somehow it still haven't amounted into anything concrete.
 
Billionaire wants sanctions relief.

Russian businessman Mikhail Fridman is offering to transfer $1 billion of his personal wealth into a Ukrainian bank he co-founded, a proposal that people familiar with the issue said is intended to persuade the U.K. to lift sanctions against him.

Mr. Fridman’s proposal is among a number of overtures that blacklisted business executives, banks and companies are quietly making to Western authorities as those nations prosecute a campaign to economically cripple Russia in response to its war in Ukraine, according to U.S. officials.
Mr. Fridman denied having made a quid pro quo offer to Ukraine.
“The U.K. does not condone any sanctions avoidance,” the British Foreign Office said.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...raine-in-hope-of-sanctions-relief-11662659071
 
As expected, decision made by the Bosnian FA about friendly with Russia has received huge backlash, especially from the Ukrainians. Official pages of NFSBIH are filled with comments of shocked Ukrainians who are very vocal in condemning us.

The damage is done, fecking nazi idiots have managed to put us all in the same basket.

Thanks for the support to the guys who responded to my tweet, I'm not going to post there anymore about Bosnia as that would mean derailing the thread and going offtopic.

I just hope we somehow find the way to limit influence of Serbs at least on these secondary things such as football, because regardless of how meaningless it is in grand scheme od things, it is sad to read what Ukrainians have to say about us, and not being able to respond knowing they are ultimately right.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
As expected, decision made by the Bosnian FA about friendly with Russia has received huge backlash, especially from the Ukrainians. Official pages of NFSBIH are filled with comments of shocked Ukrainians who are very vocal in condemning us.

The damage is done, fecking nazi idiots have managed to put us all in the same basket.

Thanks for the support to the guys who responded to my tweet, I'm not going to post there anymore about Bosnia as that would mean derailing the thread and going offtopic.

I just hope we somehow find the way to limit influence of Serbs at least on these secondary things such as football, because regardless of how meaningless it is in grand scheme od things, it is sad to read what Ukrainians have to say about us, and not being able to respond knowing they are ultimately right.
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I wouldn't put too much stock into online comments.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
Sadly, I can't enjoy this as much as I would like.

This might be slightly off-topic, but not completely, and I'm just going to write it here to show you how difficult it is to deal with Russian satellite states.

As most of you are probably well aware by now, Bosnia is made od two entities, one of which (Republic of Srpska) is completely pro-Russian. Serbs gained it in 1992-1995 war, effectively splitting country in two parts, and the separation is visible in every possible way. To cut the long story short, Serbs have a long term goal of separating from Bosnia, and in order to do so, they are attempting to prove every day that coexistence is impossible.

Serbia is Russian ally, and has instigated a lot of political unrest in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro recently, with a long term goal of creating Greater Serbia, a country in which all Serbs would live. Of course, it has large parts of neighbouring countries in it.

Now, as I said, nothing is immune to this political divide. Bosniaks and Croats (well, mostly) are pro-European, pro-EU and pro-NATO, as we are well aware that it is our only way of survival to integrate into Europe and western civilization. But we can't make any decision without acceptance of Serbs. And they are not pro EU and are definitely anti-NATO, spewing some neutrality shite and hoping that Serbia will one day walk in there and liberate them the same way Russia is liberating Ukraine. Infact, there are lot of similarities in Russian and Serbian propaganda and war doctrine.

Information has come out today that Bosnian FA has accepted invitation from Russia to play a friendly in november in St. Petersburg. That was made possible by the fact that FA is now run by Serbs due to the rotation policy in Presidency. Vico Zeljkovic is president now, he is nephew of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik and yields a great amount of power. Dodik is Putin's lapdog.

I know football is not important, but this is football forum and I'm taking a wild guess many will see in november that Bosnia is playing Russia and take a guess that we are pro-Russian oriented. I just wanted to move your attention to the fact that we aren't. At least majority isn't. Serbs are. And their attempts to break away from Bosnia are well supported by Russia.

Once again, someone may dismiss this writing as bollocks and offtopic, but to me it isn't. I see this as just another step in attempting to cut us off from west and keep us in Russian sphere of interest. We don't want that, we need people to know where we stand but also that our hands are tied.
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I for one always struggle to understand the politics of former Yugoslavia so thanks for that, tough times. There isn't another thread covering Russia's general antics and influence around the world so this is the place for it.
 
The Firestarter said:
Putin: Now you see how right I was??

EDIT: if Germany indeed provided WW2 archive maps :nervous: :lol:
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I'm pretty sure Ukraine has more modern maps of the area :lol:

However geography as such doesn't change so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine is now reusing Wehrmacht battle plans. After all there is not much difference, the heavy weaponry is more modern and has longer ranges, but apart from that what does it matter? The basic principles still exist.
 
So much going on right now, reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs all over the Izyum area and even as far south as Lyman. There is talk of Russian troops scattered all over the place and retreating in full panic.
This is looking more and more like another goodwill operation from the Russians, similar to Kyiv and Snake Island.
 
stefan92 said:
I'm pretty sure Ukraine has more modern maps of the area :lol:

However geography as such doesn't change so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine is now reusing Wehrmacht battle plans. After all there is not much difference, the heavy weaponry is more modern and has longer ranges, but apart from that what does it matter? The basic principles still exist.
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Especially with contested air space it's closer to WW2
 
the hea said:
So much going on right now, reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs all over the Izyum area and even as far south as Lyman. There is talk of Russian troops scattered all over the place and retreating in full panic.
This is looking more and more like another goodwill operation from the Russians, similar to Kyiv and Snake Island.
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Don't be surprised if they hit'em heavy in Kherson oblast, to exploit the confusion in the general staff fully.
 
UAF troops are entering Izyum according to a couple of Ukrainian army twitter ITKs.
 
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
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Russia can mobilize and draft people, if they really think it's an existential crisis then they will. We'll see if they can whip people into enough of a fervor that people go along with it.

I seriously doubt this offensive will continue until Russia is expelled.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
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The real danger will come as Putin begins to realize he's losing and will be incentivized to use more powerful weapons. If the Ukrainians happen to repel the Russians back to their borders, Putin will be confronted by the domestic reality of having sent over 50k Russians to their deaths and at least double that amount wounded, all the while having depleted his own conventional weapons, while getting sanctioned by the rest of the world and leaving his own economy in ruins. That is when he will be at his most dangerous.
 
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Bosnian_fan said:
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
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They can't supply the troops they have there now properly, what will extra manpower achieve at this point.
I feel Ukraine is going to grind russians out through slow attrition, at least until pre 24th of February lines. After that it's anyone's guess what Putin will do, I guess, he will consider assaults, if not on Donbass, then I believe on Crimea, as an attack on russian soil, as he would expect the world to have accepted, that it's been legitimized into Russia proper.
Tactical nuke, perhaps, but that would be a new precedent, and a point of no return.
 
The Firestarter said:
Is this some Model plan again :lol:
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Looking at the length of the right attack arrows... they would spend less time driving through Russia by just taking Moscow :lol:

Bosnian_fan said:
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
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Russia might be able to send more people, but they aren't able to send more equipment. They are already scraping through their junkyards to get extremely old stuff to the front. Meanwhile Ukrainian losses are replaced by a steady influx of at least well maintained equipment from NATO, partially even more modern equipment. This trend will only increase and the technological advantage Ukraine has will only grow. So the only way to truly turn things upside down would be a nuclear attack.

Ukraine should have a good chance to retake their losses since February (assuming that they have enough reserves to keep their momentum, otherwise they will have to slow down and stop the attack, which seems more probable to me, but on the other hand the speed of the current development surprised me as well). It will be a lot harder to retake Donetsk and Luhansk as Russia had eight years to fortify there, trying to retake those could be bloody.

Crimea is a different beast I fear. Very small land connection to Ukraine, very important for Russia. Ukraine would need massive long range artillery and air strike capabilities to weaken it in preparation (btw, is the English language really missing a nice wording for the German "sturmreif schießen"? Just sounds more appropriate to my ears :lol: )
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I know I have asked something pretty much like this before, but what comes next for both sides?

My own logic tells me that Ukraine can't lose this war in any sort of scenario, because they have over 40 million people. Russia has around 150 million, but they matter little as I simply don't see how they could recruit enough people to fight for their cause. That's discarding the fact that even those of Ukrainians who aren't going to fight could still give meaningful contribution to the fight in various ways, while Russians simply can't count with that.

What I'm interested in, is there any way for Russia to turn the things upside down at the moment? Optimist in me says, no there isn't, but pessimist is still scared that they may pull off some trick.

And how long and how far-reaching is current Ukrainian offensive going to be? Is there any objective possibility of them stoping or being stoped before they take back last inch of their country back? This last question obviously is more long term based, and not connected to current offensive.
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One of the main risks is if Ukraine's own lines, where they're advancing and also where they're static, are too thin and therefore vulnerable to counter-attack even by a limited Russian force. Since the beginning of this there's very little insight into the strength of the Ukrainian Army, particularly what sort of numbers and capabilities it has augmented to via mobilization/recruitment, but also the losses suffered in the past 6 months. I'm hoping that they're not endeavoring on this offensive with insufficient numbers, although their command has seemed pretty effective in this war so that would suggest they know what they're doing.
 
I still can’t believe how Russian reconnaissance in Kharkiv did not pick up the signs of possible counteroffensive.
 
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