Let’s hope so. Interesting that Ukraine said today that they were expanding their counter attack across the South-East and East of the country. I have no idea which army is capable of fighting along the longest front line, Ukraine must think it is them who can.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Let’s hope so. Interesting that Ukraine said today that they were expanding their counter attack across the South-East and East of the country. I have no idea which army is capable of fighting along the longest front line, Ukraine must think it is them who can.
Ukraine are doing a good job of keeping their activities quiet, there's hardly any footage getting out, just the odd titbit.
Moving past destroyed enemy armour is certainly a good sign, but this might just be one road on what is a massive front.
Moving past destroyed enemy armour is certainly a good sign, but this might just be one road on what is a massive front.
Considering the success stories about geolocation, I'm happier to see as little as possible right now.
According to Sky within the last hour:
Ukraine to announce 'good news' on counteroffensive tonight
An adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Serhiy Leshchenko, said: "Tonight there is going to be great news from President Zelenskiy on [the] counteroffensive operation in Kharkiv region."
He did not give any further details.
It's interesting to see the effective radio silence observed by Ukraine whilst attacking, as compared to the Russian's and their almost deliberate lack of any notion of operational security.
Let's hope it's something positive. I feel like we'd know if there had been any kind of large scale collapse of the Russian front line but again, that's me incorrectly basing my expectations on the media output during the Russia offensive.
Ukraine to announce 'good news' on counteroffensive tonight
An adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Serhiy Leshchenko, said: "Tonight there is going to be great news from President Zelenskiy on [the] counteroffensive operation in Kharkiv region."
He did not give any further details.
It's interesting to see the effective radio silence observed by Ukraine whilst attacking, as compared to the Russian's and their almost deliberate lack of any notion of operational security.
Let's hope it's something positive. I feel like we'd know if there had been any kind of large scale collapse of the Russian front line but again, that's me incorrectly basing my expectations on the media output during the Russia offensive.
Just a general feeling of mine after seeing an uptick in losses and POWs from Russian side in Kherson region from multiple sources and the issues with ammo supplies they’re faced after all the bridges have been put out of order. I think in two months time we should see Ukraine holding the Kherson again.
You'd think they'd have done this before they started.
Can you link some of those sources. I'm struggling to find anything meaningful regarding the operation.
They neither expected the war to escalate to this level nor the fierce response to it.
Good thread. I suspect the Russians are in a bit of a quagmire because they don't have the resources to do anything other than defend (other than using nukes of course, which are a non starter)
It’s pretty negligible not to account for all possible outcomes in advance though. It’s not exactly been that crazy a scenario so far, even if not the one they expected.
The invasion has been done based on fundamentally flawed assumptions and view of reality due to the consistent misreporting of intel. I mean their baseline scenario was probably around 2 weeks of combat, so you can see how they might not even have considered such a fallout.
I'd think that your 2 weeks of combat would have been their worst case scenario... their move for Kiyv looked like they tried to repeat Germany taking Austria in 1938 (no shots fired)...
I think they would have expected some resistance in Donbass for a couple of weeks from some units even with Kiyv captured and Zelensky gone.
I feel 2 weeks is pushing it a bit, they will have known that the Ukrainian air force might survive the initial attempt at destruction, and again will have known that battles for places like Kyiv could turn into street-by-street urban warfare. Plus the vast size of the country of course, which would allow the formation of armies in places like Lviv. I think what they weren't prepared for was the systematic destruction of a huge portion of their military power and equipment. Their previous tactics (if you want to even call them that) seem to have involved forcing victory through sheer weight of numbers. I don't think they ever made a proper plan for what would happen if Ukraine began to achieve parity, the idea would have seemed absurd to a Kremlin war planner
The point is, it didn't (partially) look like they expected having to fight at all. Reports were that the VDV that landed near Kiyv started controlling traffic. You don't do that if you fight a war, you do that if you are part of a (mostly peaceful) regime change.
Will be somewhat fascinating to see how the Ukrainian population moves on from this war once it's over (and won). Will it strengthen their feeling of nationhood? Will it leave them traumatized? How do those who mainly speak Russian (Kharkiv region I think) reflect on this?
Where I come from, war stories tend to be passed down from elders to youngsters and it's a popular subject at dinner tables, especially when alcohol makes the men emotional. For Ukrainians, their heroic defence will surely be mythologized in their own folklore.
Where I come from, war stories tend to be passed down from elders to youngsters and it's a popular subject at dinner tables, especially when alcohol makes the men emotional. For Ukrainians, their heroic defence will surely be mythologized in their own folklore.
Yes, and potentially places like Lviv, hundreds of miles from Kiev and very close to borders with the EU could have held out far longer purely due to the geography. I'd dearly love to know what Russian the generals tasked with planning this campaign privately thought. I don't think we'll know until Putin is removed or dead.
Something similar to the aftermath of Iran - Iraq war probably.
Fair point. I didn't know that Russian forces did that - it smacks of an astonishing lack of awareness that I'd never thought possible from a country with the level of military intelligence that Russia has.
There were rumours that secret service officers just kept money they should have used to bribe Ukrainian officials. It's easy to think you can do a regime change when you believe the actual leaders are already on your payroll.
Kharkiv? The population there absolutely despises Russia now more than those living in the west, the city has been under constant shelling for ages now.
But the thing is, as others have said before, all points to them expecting Ukrainians to welcome them as liberation army. If such things were true, then no, in their heads there was no space for that street-for-street battle scenario of Kyiv, along with many other scenarios in which Ukrainians are putting up meaningful resistance.
Good shit is happening everywhere along the front, I can't keep up with twitter <3
Today Ukrainians have captured Balakliya, and advanced a good distance towards Izium.
This is according to the Express, so I place no value on the source, but their take is:
‘However, the Kherson attack seems to have been a cover for a major assault in Ukraine's east, which has sent shockwaves through Putin's army.’
The way I read that is that the Kherson offensive could essentially be a feint (like the Pas de Calais was during The Second World War), to draw all of Russia’s spare men and armour into a pocket surrounded by rivers on one side and the UAF on the other.
I’ve no idea if there’s any truth in this, and I suspect it’s just guesswork, but if it’s true, what a brilliantly executed piece of misinformation!
‘However, the Kherson attack seems to have been a cover for a major assault in Ukraine's east, which has sent shockwaves through Putin's army.’
The way I read that is that the Kherson offensive could essentially be a feint (like the Pas de Calais was during The Second World War), to draw all of Russia’s spare men and armour into a pocket surrounded by rivers on one side and the UAF on the other.
I’ve no idea if there’s any truth in this, and I suspect it’s just guesswork, but if it’s true, what a brilliantly executed piece of misinformation!
It was bit weird from the get go because they kept telling the world they are going to attack Kherson and that went for months. So it's definitely possible. It's also possible that both attacks are real.
We will have to wait and see but I did think about all the pre invasion reporting on an amphibious landing during the gulf war.
Time to kick Hungary out of the EU.
This is a bit rich coming from him:
- Putin said the way Britain chooses its leaders is “far from democratic”, a day after Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson as prime minister. In his first public comments on Truss’s appointment, the Russian president alluded to the fact she was chosen in a leadership ballot by members of the Conservative party, not by the whole country.
That detail may have escaped me, but I thought the Gulf War was a massive blitz that started from Saudi Arabia.
The only amphibious operation in that war was a capture of offshore oil rigs by the SEALs.
From my understanding they have not actually captured the city yet but they have encircled it with Russian Rosgvardia troops trapped inside.
It seems like Balakliya is not the main goal of the operation and Ukrainian armor have already pushed further forward towards Shevschenkove.
My guess is that they have found a weak spot in the Russian defences and are now making a push for Kupiansk which would cut off all the major supply routs to Izyum.
Initially they only encircled but by the look of it today they have taken from the video/photo confirmations. Anyway, I’m just glad the momentum is finally with Ukraine armed forces right now.
Any experts here willing to explain to us less knowledgeable what could Russia do next?
From what I'm seeing, they could lose all gains from 2014 onwards, as the war has definitely taken a different turn. Now, I'm not really a military expert, and I may be completely off the mark here, but unless Russia somehow manages to mobilize large number of new recruits (which in turn means more dead for them) they are hardly going to turn this around, aren't they? Or am I missing something?
And could Ukraine be pushed into corner without liberating whole territory by other countries demanding peace?
From what I'm seeing, they could lose all gains from 2014 onwards, as the war has definitely taken a different turn. Now, I'm not really a military expert, and I may be completely off the mark here, but unless Russia somehow manages to mobilize large number of new recruits (which in turn means more dead for them) they are hardly going to turn this around, aren't they? Or am I missing something?
And could Ukraine be pushed into corner without liberating whole territory by other countries demanding peace?
Not unless Trump is back in the WH.
Russia burned so many bridges to Ukraine's supporters that I think it's unlikely that they want to spare Russia. Obviously there will always be calls for peace but no one will see the pressure to end this since Russia stopped it's gas exports.
It all is going on for so long now that states and businesses worked enough on alternatives to Russian resources that it simply isn't as important to regain access than it was in the first few months of the war.