Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Classical Mechanic said:
They we’re saying on Radio 4 that Putin is absolutely terrified of catching Covid. He makes some people isolate for 2 weeks before meeting him and has these massive tables to keep people away from him. No one is allowed to get physically close to him. If true it’s a bad sign. I remember in the wiki leaks paper US intelligence described him as the ‘alpha dog of Europe’ but if hes now acting like a neurotic little kitten it doesn’t bode well for his mental state.
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He makes everyone self-isolate for 2 weeks aside from the foreign state leaders & some of the members of his administration had literally spent more than half of the previous year self-isolating.
 
harms said:
A few independent media that still somehow exist are required to put a huge warning (15 seconds in a video, a few sentences in caps lock in any written piece) that they work in the interest of foreign power — as well as having to answer for every penny spent or received before the government.
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That's simultaneously surreal and grim. Also amazing that these outlets have decided to go on and not close shop which undoubtedly was the whole point behind this rule.
 
harms said:
Most people don’t vote.

Putin’s rating is way less than 50%. United Russia, the party in power, got embarrassed in recent elections that requires unprecedented falsifications to keep them in power (even with all of the real opposition kicked out of the country/imprisoned or even killed, people had voted for the Communist party that always was a legalized version of fake opposition). A few independent media that still somehow exist are required to put a huge warning (15 seconds in a video, a few sentences in caps lock in any written piece) that they work in the interest of foreign power — as well as having to answer for every penny spent or received before the government. The most (the only?) notable vocal opponent of Putin’s regime was poisoned by biochemical weapon and then imprisoned for bogus charges that keep coming the minute he landed in Russia after recovering.

TLDR — you don’t know what you’re talking about.
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I think that I asked for your opinion about that a while ago. From what I could read and see, Putin is surprisingly unpopular and my understanding was that his popularity is only acceptable in Moscow and St Petersburg. Outside of that people think that he and his gang stole the wealth of their regions to funnel it to Moscow.
 
Kentonio said:
Smart countries like Norway take that money and invest it in funds that build for their countries futures.
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Don't give us too much credit, we could and should have done a lot more to prepare ourselves for the transition. Our economy is still heavily reliant on the petroleum industry. Not just in exports, but in jobs and supply chains and all that.

Still, the oil fund was a stroke of genius. Hard to see that it's viable for a country many times larger, but I don't see their current approach doing much good either.
 
nimic said:
It seems like the only way this is going to end is with disaster for Russia. Disaster for everyone, and disaster for Ukraine, but definitely long-term disaster for Russia. He's playing cold-war games and trying to regain Soviet prestige without the Soviet economy and the Soviet military.
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Everyone is desperate to see this as a Cold War scenario but Ukraine is a border security issue, not the beginning of some Soviet takeover. If it wasn't Putin, some other head of state would be doing more or less the exact same thing right now. Ukraine is a historical issue for Russians. A killing field. I don't see any Russian president allowing the US/UK/NATO to gain a foothold in separatist regions and using that foothold to undermine Russia. Nor do I think Russia want to invade, exactly because they know it'll be a clusterfeck. The West will see an invasion as a win of sorts.
 
Water Melon said:
There will be war, it seems. Hope international community will impose as severe sanctions as possible. It is unbelievable to see Ukraine being left with no major help against Russia. Signing that Budapest treaty back in 1994 was a huge mistake. Had they kept their nukes, we would have seen so much less mess by Putin.
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So, you think that US & UK will attack, cause the rest of Europe is not going anywhere?
 
Sir Matt said:
It’s a shame one of those people he publicly humiliated isn’t ambitious enough to off Putin and take the job for himself. The Russians are getting soft.
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It’s not. Any one of those people isn’t any better, they didn’t get to that room by accident.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
I wonder if the recognition route points to a very limited Russian military operation - i.e. they roll into and surround Luhansk and Donbas, but no assault against Kiev or the rest of Ukraine.
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I feel so. Ukraine will try and fight back and Russia will just defend it.... but who knows
 
Droid_Repairs said:
I wonder if the recognition route points to a very limited Russian military operation - i.e. they roll into and surround Luhansk and Donbas, but no assault against Kiev or the rest of Ukraine.
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Much harder for Russia in that scenario. They're then basically just contending one front instead of using their numbers and envelopment to overwhelm the Ukranians. Raises the question of why they'd have bothered surrounding Ukraine if they weren't going to actually use those positions for anything other than pulling away some defensive forces.
 
UweBein said:
So, you think that US & UK will attack, cause the rest of Europe is not going anywhere?
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No, Ukraine will resist, while Russian military rolls in Luhansk and Donbas. US and UK will impose sanctions. France and Germany will try to chicken out.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Everyone is desperate to see this as a Cold War scenario but Ukraine is a border security issue, not the beginning of some Soviet takeover. If it wasn't Putin, some other head of state would be doing more or less the exact same thing right now. Ukraine is a historical issue for Russians. A killing field. I don't see any Russian president allowing the US/UK/NATO to gain a foothold in separatist regions and using that foothold to undermine Russia. Nor do I think Russia want to invade, exactly because they know it'll be a clusterfeck. The West will see an invasion as a win of sorts.
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I just don't buy it. If it really is just a border security issue, recognizing the separatist republics as independent, and quite likely following that up with military aid to push them out of their "territory", is going to cause a much greater long-term threat to Russia's border security. I'd be surprised if this doesn't lead directly to Finland joining NATO, possibly Sweden too. Finland has a much larger border with Russia than any current NATO member.
 
JPRouve said:
I think that I asked for your opinion about that a while ago. From what I could read and see, Putin is surprisingly unpopular and my understanding was that his popularity is only acceptable in Moscow and St Petersburg. Outside of that people think that he and his gang stole the wealth of their regions to funnel it to Moscow.
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He’s even less popular in big cities. In the regions a narrative that Putin himself is decent but he’s surrounded by incompetent and corrupt people is still alive (somehow), in Moscow & St. Petersburg, where people get a lot more informational exposure, barely anyone believes that.
 
The Firestarter said:
That's simultaneously surreal and grim. Also amazing that these outlets have decided to go on and not close shop which undoubtedly was the whole point behind this rule.
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Some journalists (as well as lawyers, activists, artists etc.) are also recognized as foreign agents (that’s the term) individually, so, for example, you have to put that warning in front of literally every comment that you post on Twitter/Facebook etc., regardless of its point (you can wish someone happy birthday and you still have to add the words).
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Everyone is desperate to see this as a Cold War scenario but Ukraine is a border security issue, not the beginning of some Soviet takeover. If it wasn't Putin, some other head of state would be doing more or less the exact same thing right now. Ukraine is a historical issue for Russians. A killing field. I don't see any Russian president allowing the US/UK/NATO to gain a foothold in separatist regions and using that foothold to undermine Russia. Nor do I think Russia want to invade, exactly because they know it'll be a clusterfeck. The West will see an invasion as a win of sorts.
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Please don’t tell me you just talked down Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia et al. as “separatist regions”?
 
nimic said:
I just don't buy it. If it really is just a border security issue, recognizing the separatist republics as independent, and quite likely following that up with military aid to push them out of their "territory", is going to cause a much greater long-term threat to Russia's border security. I'd be surprised if this doesn't lead directly to Finland joining NATO, possibly Sweden too. Finland has a much larger border with Russia than any current NATO member.
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If you're Putin or some other Russian president, there really isn't a good option. You stick with things as it is and allow the US/UK to train scores of thousands of troops who despise you and build naval bases and basically use the Ukraine as a proxy for destabilizing Russia under the guise of "freedom", or you try reach a diplomatic resolution (doesn't seem like anyone is interested in that), or you recognise the breakaway states and sure them up militarily and destroy the US/UK's capacity to wage proxy war against you. Russia loses in the last scenario but it is losing in the current scenario. Take Putin out of the equation and you still have a problem.
 
harms said:
Most people don’t vote.

Putin’s rating is way less than 50%. United Russia, the party in power, got embarrassed in recent elections that requires unprecedented falsifications to keep them in power (even with all of the real opposition kicked out of the country/imprisoned or even killed, people had voted for the Communist party that always was a legalized version of fake opposition). A few independent media that still somehow exist are required to put a huge warning (15 seconds in a video, a few sentences in caps lock in any written piece) that they work in the interest of foreign power — as well as having to answer for every penny spent or received before the government. The most (the only?) notable vocal opponent of Putin’s regime was poisoned by biochemical weapon and then imprisoned for bogus charges that keep coming the minute he landed in Russia after recovering.

TLDR — you don’t know what you’re talking about.
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Now, probably yes. Though even in a fair election, he would easily win a majority, if not a pluarlity.

What about the last 4 elections? He might have been an unknown in 2000 so I grant you that, but what about the other elections when he easily won, without needing to 'steal' the elections?

When a nation chooses a dictator and keeps supporting him, they are to be blamed too. Same as how Germans were for Hitler, same are the Russians for the modern Hitler.
 
harms said:
Some journalists (as well as lawyers, activists, artists etc.) are also recognized as foreign agents (that’s the term) individually, so, for example, you have to put that warning in front of literally every comment that you post on Twitter/Facebook etc., regardless of its point (you can wish someone happy birthday and you still have to add the words).
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Even on non Russian social media ?
 
TMDaines said:
Please don’t tell me you just talked down Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia et al. as “separatist regions”?
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Western Ukraine. The point of the entire conflict. The civil war, you know? Western separatists/eastern separatists.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Everyone is desperate to see this as a Cold War scenario but Ukraine is a border security issue, not the beginning of some Soviet takeover. If it wasn't Putin, some other head of state would be doing more or less the exact same thing right now. Ukraine is a historical issue for Russians. A killing field. I don't see any Russian president allowing the US/UK/NATO to gain a foothold in separatist regions and using that foothold to undermine Russia. Nor do I think Russia want to invade, exactly because they know it'll be a clusterfeck. The West will see an invasion as a win of sorts.
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Thanks Lord that we have another commie here to tell us all that Russian invading Ukraine is the West's fault.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Your understanding here has surpassed everyone else's, I'll concede the point to you.
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You have reached a point where I can’t even begin to interpret what you mean. Who are these “western separatists”? The “entire point of the conflict” is “Western Ukraine”?
 
Sky graphic says “Modern Ukraine was created by communist Russia”. That’s the level of batshit coming out of Putin’s mouth.
 
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