Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Revan said:
Most of those ordinary people vote for Putin.

I never bought this ‘people are not to be blamed’ mentality, where it is those people who vote for the dictator. It is not like in North Korea which do not have elections. While the elections in Russia are not really free, still most people vote for Putin.
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It’s not as if the genuine, alternative opposition that actually pose a threat are allowed to run.
 
VorZakone said:
Decent thread. I buy the notion that Putin privately doesn't want a big military conflict but so far the West isn't budging.

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I think i mostly agree with this, I think Putin has put himself between a rock and a hard place. No one is budging to his demands and hes speaking with anyone that will listen to get some of his demands met. But is he really going to pack up his ball and go home if Nato and Ukraine dont give him any of his demands?
 
Revan said:
Most of those ordinary people vote for Putin.

I never bought this ‘people are not to be blamed’ mentality, where it is those people who vote for the dictator. It is not like in North Korea which do not have elections. While the elections in Russia are not really free, still most people vote for Putin.
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Most of people probably would have voted someone else in if they had fair democratic elections. Blaming Russians for this is a bit naff.
 
By the way, the Russians are really looking like a joke to be honest. If anyone had the idea that they are clever, sophisticated schemers playing 9D chess or whatever, you can put that idea to bed.

It's nothing but a failed corrupt state and a declining power.
 
VorZakone said:
By the way, the Russians are really looking like a joke to be honest. If anyone had the idea that they are clever, sophisticated schemers playing 9D chess or whatever, you can put that idea to bed.

It's nothing but a failed corrupt state and a declining power.
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Be certain, not everyone sees that.
 
My feeling from watching that pantomime show was that they are going to recognize the two separatist Republics (likely in their entire territory) but not enter the war formally until Lavrov meets Blinken in a couple of days.

However, the recognition of those two states with half of their territory being under Kiev’s control, will essentially guarantee the war.

I fully expect Russia to invade Ukraine later this week.
 
Started a conversation on this in the office and learned "we" only want Ukraine because of all the uranium in the ground there apparently, there was a really good article on facebook!
 
Water Melon said:
Their "independence" will be recognized in the next couple of hours. Then they will once again ask to join Russia and will be allowed to do so. The Russian stock market is in ruins already, and from now on it is only downwards for the Russian government. If the sanctions are applied properly, it is curtains for them economically. I always feel sorry for citizens, ordinary people who have to suffer from craziness of their politicians.
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What kind of sanctions are we looking at if Russia were to invade Ukraine?
 
VorZakone said:
Anyone else getting the vibe that Putin has gone mental? Say what you want but he always gave the impression of a calculating, smooth talking, somewhat rational, dictator.

Is age catching up to his cognitive abilities?
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harms said:
You seriously underestimate his paranoia if you think that one brave Russian soul would be enough.
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They we’re saying on Radio 4 that Putin is absolutely terrified of catching Covid. He makes some people isolate for 2 weeks before meeting him and has these massive tables to keep people away from him. No one is allowed to get physically close to him. If true it’s a bad sign. I remember in the wiki leaks paper US intelligence described him as the ‘alpha dog of Europe’ but if hes now acting like a neurotic little kitten it doesn’t bode well for his mental state.
 
VorZakone said:
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Zelensky will be addressing his people at the same time. In 10 minutes time we could be witnessing a beginning of new era in Eurasia. Russia's final 10 minutes on stage before a proper descent begins. They will have no allies left and each and every country they have borders with will try distance themselves from Putin's regime, bar Belarus and China of course.
 
One thing I don't understand is if Putin was always set on invading surely he loses the surprise element of the attack. I mean there's maps of his troops on the BBC. I appreciate they probably won't have a problem rolling into Ukraine and it's more the afterwards but seems a bit silly unless he was open to a negotiation.
 
Unless Blinken offers both a stick (full embargo) and a carrot (guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO), I don’t see how this can be stopped at this stage.
 
ZIDANE said:
One thing I don't understand is if Putin was always set on invading surely he loses the surprise element of the attack. I mean there's maps of his troops on the BBC. I appreciate they probably won't have a problem rolling into Ukraine and it's more the afterwards but seems a bit silly unless he was open to a negotiation.
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There's no surprise element to be had. One can't just invade on the fly. Modern technology methods will always expose a build-up.
 
VorZakone said:
There's no surprise element to be had. One can't just invade on the fly. Modern technology methods will always expose a build-up.
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Yeah, pretty much this. It's impossible to mobilise 200,000 troops along with tanks, vehicles and field bases without somebody noticing that they're on the move.
 
ZIDANE said:
One thing I don't understand is if Putin was always set on invading surely he loses the surprise element of the attack. I mean there's maps of his troops on the BBC. I appreciate they probably won't have a problem rolling into Ukraine and it's more the afterwards but seems a bit silly unless he was open to a negotiation.
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There is nothing about surprise here. Its an overwhelming force, and there is only one outcome if Ukraine try to meet it head on.

Some immediate tactical intelligence will anyway be provided by the US as an assistance while (if) this unfolds and also during the following resistance movement and that might prove instrumental but we don't know yet.
 
VorZakone said:
There's no surprise element to be had. One can't just invade on the fly. Modern technology methods will always expose a build-up.
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Droid_Repairs said:
Yeah, pretty much this. It's impossible to mobilise 200,000 troops along with tanks, vehicles and field bases without somebody noticing that they're on the move.
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I appreciate it takes time to build up but this build-up could've been shorter? US said they were ready to move in last Weds I think.

It may have prevented some of the Ukraine defensive options and support from other countries.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
Yeah, pretty much this. It's impossible to mobilise 200,000 troops along with tanks, vehicles and field bases without somebody noticing that they're on the move.
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If anything, in this particular scenario, the element of surprise could possibly relate to location. Where will an invasion start first? Ukraine is surrounded by Russian troops on both Russian and Belarussian borders if I recall correctly.
 
VorZakone said:
If anything, in this particular scenario, the element of surprise could possibly relate to location. Where will an invasion start first? Ukraine is surrounded by Russian troops on both Russian and Belarussian borders if I recall correctly.
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That's correct, as well as some units in Crimea and Transinistria. Allows for several diversion options.
 
Watching RT Today and the lady right now says she thinks it will happen (that he will recognise them as independent)
 
There will be war, it seems. Hope international community will impose as severe sanctions as possible. It is unbelievable to see Ukraine being left with no major help against Russia. Signing that Budapest treaty back in 1994 was a huge mistake. Had they kept their nukes, we would have seen so much less mess by Putin.
 
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The Firestarter said:
It was mentioned that it already happened.
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He hasn't had his new TV announcement saying it officially yet though has he? Even if obvious

It is actually interesting hearing RT and what they're saying. This woman is definitely a paid shill but still interesting hearing about the argument that Kiev didn't follow the Minsk Protocol or at least how. Not saying I agree or am knowledgeable enough but interesting hearing a different perspective..... just this Saskia woman is annoying
 
It’s a shame one of those people he publicly humiliated isn’t ambitious enough to off Putin and take the job for himself. The Russians are getting soft.
 
It seems like the only way this is going to end is with disaster for Russia. Disaster for everyone, and disaster for Ukraine, but definitely long-term disaster for Russia. He's playing cold-war games and trying to regain Soviet prestige without the Soviet economy and the Soviet military.
 
Revan said:
Most of those ordinary people vote for Putin.

I never bought this ‘people are not to be blamed’ mentality, where it is those people who vote for the dictator. It is not like in North Korea which do not have elections. While the elections in Russia are not really free, still most people vote for Putin.
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Most people don’t vote.

Putin’s rating is way less than 50%. United Russia, the party in power, got embarrassed in recent elections that requires unprecedented falsifications to keep them in power (even with all of the real opposition kicked out of the country/imprisoned or even killed, people had voted for the Communist party that always was a legalized version of fake opposition). A few independent media that still somehow exist are required to put a huge warning (15 seconds in a video, a few sentences in caps lock in any written piece) that they work in the interest of foreign power — as well as having to answer for every penny spent or received before the government. The most (the only?) notable vocal opponent of Putin’s regime was poisoned by biochemical weapon and then imprisoned for bogus charges that keep coming the minute he landed in Russia after recovering.

TLDR — you don’t know what you’re talking about.
 
nimic said:
It seems like the only way this is going to end is with disaster for Russia. Disaster for everyone, and disaster for Ukraine, but definitely long-term disaster for Russia. He's playing cold-war games and trying to regain Soviet prestige without the Soviet economy and the Soviet military.
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Russia is an inevitable disaster regardless with their reliance on oil and gas funds. It makes no difference to them if the rest of the world gets dragged down at the same time is what I am starting to realise.
 
IWat said:
Russia is an inevitable disaster regardless with their reliance on oil and gas funds. It makes no difference to them if the rest of the world gets dragged down at the same time is what I am starting to realise.
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Smart countries like Norway take that money and invest it in funds that build for their countries futures.
 
I wonder if the recognition route points to a very limited Russian military operation - i.e. they roll into and surround Luhansk and Donbas, but no assault against Kiev or the rest of Ukraine.
 
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