Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

sglowrider said:
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At some point, NATO will have to hire a number of crazy pilots so they can airdrop those supplies into Mariupol just like it used to be done during the Siege of Khe Sanh or the Berlin Airlift (on top of my head). Sometimes the old ways are the best and only ways.

And we can add deliberate and severe starvation on the list of punishments worth dishing at Putin prior to hanging, castrating, flaying, drawing, quartering and incinerating.
 
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ooeat0meoo said:
Ukrainian soldier thanks England for their support. He credits a group of people in Birmingham putting on a Ukraine Benefit Concert to happen 29 March.

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Antytila are quite a popular band in Ukraine. Thanks for sharing that tweet.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I think his point is that we may already have to contemplate the Cold War 2.0 for as long as the likes of Xi and Putin want to feck the current world order up. The next cold war may well be all about autocracy vs. democracy instead of capitalism vs. communism.

For whatever it's worth, Western companies will have to move production to India (a democratic nation with 1.38 billion people) and other nearby Asian democracies soon.
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Or maybe we should use this as an opportunity to move away from our current system of using poor people thousands of miles away to produce things for us.
 
sglowrider said:
The battle of Irpin: Meeting the Ukrainian resistance

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When even the artists are making molotov cocktails in their workshops, you know the war is going to be impossible to win for Russia. Even if they managed to occupy the country or get a favorable peace deal, they're going to have a country of 45 million that detests them with all their combined soul.
 
Getting closer to dumping Russian oil & gas entirely. Both US and Europe are lucky this crisis didn't hit them with Trump in the WH...

 
RoyH1 said:
When even the artists are making molotov cocktails in their workshops, you know the war is going to be impossible to win for Russia. Even if they managed to occupy the country or get a favorable peace deal, they're going to have a country of 45 million that detests them with all their combined soul.
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It’s possible with brutality and forced reallocation of people to Russia and replacing them with their own.
 
Rajma said:
It’s possible with brutality and forced reallocation of people to Russia and replacing them with their own.
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I pity the feckers who get relocated to Mariupol. Hope they brought bottled water and tinned food.
 
Carolina Red said:
This makes me so happy. Those Russian BTG’s can’t do shit without ammo, fuel, and food.

As Sun Tzu said, "The line between disorder and order lies in logistics."
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Yes and me too.
The old saying that an Army marches on its stomach is even more true now than ever.
And the vastly underrated process of Logistics is absolutely critical to any military activity.
Right piece of kit.
Right place.
Right time.
 
spiriticon said:
I pity the feckers who get relocated to Mariupol. Hope they brought bottled water and tinned food.
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While it seems unrealistic to us, this is exactly what gonna happen, they’ll simply move in poor Russians to the flats that were left behind by locals, these will be offered for free, so you’ll get many takers for sure given the devastating economic situation in Russia. The local authorities will be comprised exclusively from loyalists while the remaining sane will gradually flee to other parts of Ukraine in the light of the ongoing ethnical cleansing.
 
Rajma said:
While it seems unrealistic to us, this is exactly what gonna happen, they’ll simply move in poor Russians to the flats that were left behind by locals, these will be offered for free, so you’ll get many takers for sure given the devastating economic situation in Russia.
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Are there even any flats left that aren't completely destroyed?

Also there is no food, no water, no sanitation, no heating. I guess you could move a few thousand homeless people there but that's about it really. And even the homeless will probably migrate to Donetsk eventually where there is better infrastructure.
 
spiriticon said:
Are there even any flats left that aren't completely destroyed?

Also there is no food, no water, no sanitation, no heating. I guess you could move a few thousand homeless people there but that's about it really. And even the homeless will probably migrate to Donetsk eventually where there is better infrastructure.
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Oh, that wouldn’t happen overnight, and Russia is going to repair the basic infrastructure so that it can make it happen.
 
Rajma said:
Oh, that wouldn’t happen overnight, and Russia is going to repair the basic infrastructure so that it can make it happen.
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Repair infrastructure? With no money? Nah, they have their own economy to save and a military to fund.

I imagine repairing Mariupol is wayyy down on the priority list.
 
Rajma said:
It’s possible with brutality and forced reallocation of people to Russia and replacing them with their own.
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Part of Russia's problem is their shrinking population. Relocating huge populations to the whole of Ukraine sounds unrealistic.
 
Looking more and more like that occupation of the land bridge to Crimea will define a successful war for Russia:

 
TMDaines said:
Looking more and more like that occupation of the land bridge to Crimea will define a successful war for Russia:

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At what cost? They will have to spend insane money and military resources on the occupation of that land bridge while the sanctions keep crippling the Russian economy.

The strategy is not viable.
 
Pintu said:
At what cost? They will have to spend insane money and military resources on the occupation of that land bridge while the sanctions keep crippling the Russian economy.

The strategy is not viable.
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Hope you are right, but the world accepted what they did in Crimea and Donbas previously.
 
If we lift the sanctions, then we better have a word with ourselves. Also, if sanctions are reduced then I'm done worrying about European security. I'll just accept whatever happens as Russia grows stronger again.
 
spiriticon said:
If we lift the sanctions, then we better have a word with ourselves. Also, if sanctions are reduced then I'm done worrying about European security. I'll just accept whatever happens as Russia grows stronger again.
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Inevitable I think

Wars dont usually end in total destructiuon of a nation - they are typically settled with first a ceasefire then a peace treaty

The ceasefire negotiations will be between Russia and Ukraine and of course there will be some contentious issues around recognition of areas of control future commitments etc and if you draw the venn diagram of what will be acceptable there is probably the outline of a landing strip somewhere in the middle for somebody to land a deal at some point there.

Once that happens though I think Russia will use the lull in fighting to quickly resupply so that they can re-open hostilities and particularly mass targeting of civilians if the actual peace treaty negotiations dont go how they want and this is a much trickier venn diagram as Russia will want sanction relief and as such there will need to be either direct or proxy (through ukraine) negotiations with the Eu and the states about what sanction relief Putin can secure or he will start killing civilians to ensure Ukraine pushes the EU / states to give the relief

Without any sanction relief i simply dont see him stopping at all so as unpalatable as it is I thin its inevitable - though the closer it gets to the Mid terms the more politically charged sanction relief will become in the states as I think as far as McConnel, trump and de-Santis are concerned they would see millions of Ukrainian civilians killed and push back against any sanction relief so they can either blame biden for not ending things or blame him for giving in to putin

But probably some sanction relief will need to be given to get any peace talks over the line
 
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