Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
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Also randomly parrots the kremlin excuse for the targeting of civilians at the end there, albeit in a roundabout way. Then suggests he thinks Russia is going to do to Kyiv what they did to Mariupul? Huh? They are going to 'double down'? As if they aren't already desperately throwing everything they have at Ukraine?

Weird script this guy was given. I'm betting the idea is to cosy up for now, play both sides a bit, propose a bullshit deal that will look good on paper to the idiots of the world, so they can spin it into all blame on Ukraine, giving Trump 'justification' to unlock the assets, remove the sanctions, etc.
 
africanspur said:
A military collapse where Russian forces are pouring forwards or a trump negotiated settlement with loss of land and a frozen ceasefire?
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As I understood this refers to the first scenario. A frozen war isn't expected to motivate so many people to leave immediately. A scenario where Russia actually gains control over Ukraine however would probably cause a lot of refugees.
 
stefan92 said:
As I understood this refers to the first scenario. A frozen war isn't expected to motivate so many people to leave immediately. A scenario where Russia actually gains control over Ukraine however would probably cause a lot of refugees.
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Ironically this might fire up some leaders in Western Europe more than any Russian threat. The phrase "influx of refugees" makes them more proactive than anything else known to man
 
africanspur said:
What do they mean by collapse here? A military collapse where Russian forces are pouring forwards or a trump negotiated settlement with loss of land and a frozen ceasefire?
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I just take this as an attempt to paint the picture as bleak as possible to get a better reaction.
 
I don't think there is a possibility of Russian forces pouring forward at any moment again now. Might have been in the beginning, now it is impossible. I really don't get where people get such ideas.
 
Part of the long term aim of the EU is to 'move towards ever closer union'. Ultimately this envisages a United States of Europe (incidentally, one of the reasons many in the UK voted for Brexit).
Now it seems very much like Donald Trump may well provide the 'significant moment' required to overcome the initial inertia in Europe and make that 'closer union' objective become a little more clearer, when he effectively tells Europe it has to stand alone, with Ukraine, against Putin, and he takes his 'ball' home with him.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I don't think there is a possibility of Russian forces pouring forward at any moment again now. Might have been in the beginning, now it is impossible. I really don't get where people get such ideas.
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As @Simbo said this is a scenario mostly aimed at the German right wing Party AfD, which is anti-refugee and pro-Russia. Make them decide which is more important to them basically.
 
Photos being shared online of North Korean Koksan howitzers in Russia. Looks like aside from artillery shells and missiles/rockets NK is also delivering other hardware.

 
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Scholz calls Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/world/europe/scholz-putin-russia-germany-call.html

Zelenskiy displeased.



It seems "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" lasted only slightly longer than "For as long as it takes" on the Now That's What I Call Vapid Western Slogans playlist.

Zelenskiy's a bit naive here though if he thinks Scholz so much as wipes his arse before seeking Washington's approval on this issue. Scholz said a week ago he was going to call Putin only after consulting with the US and EU leaders - the same leaders who denounced Orban half a year ago for speaking to Putin about entering into negotiations. Have I mentioned these people are criminally stupid?
 
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VorZakone said:
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Wonder what N Korea is getting in return other than what I assume is food at minimum. Which they probably were already getting. Russian investments directly in NK, maybe? If so, S Korea must be watching closely. This whole thing has a tendency to get so much messier if NK opens aggressions on its border with the aid of Russia and/or China to help spread western alliances' attention thin. Meanwhile dictator wannabes everywhere would gladly welcome said distractions.
 
Redplane said:
Wonder what N Korea is getting in return other than what I assume is food at minimum. Which they probably were already getting. Russian investments directly in NK, maybe? If so, S Korea must be watching closely. This whole thing has a tendency to get so much messier if NK opens aggressions on its border with the aid of Russia and/or China to help spread western alliances' attention thin. Meanwhile dictator wannabes everywhere would gladly welcome said distractions.
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Technological help to develope their own MIRVs would be my guess.
 
Redplane said:
Wonder what N Korea is getting in return other than what I assume is food at minimum. Which they probably were already getting. Russian investments directly in NK, maybe? If so, S Korea must be watching closely. This whole thing has a tendency to get so much messier if NK opens aggressions on its border with the aid of Russia and/or China to help spread western alliances' attention thin. Meanwhile dictator wannabes everywhere would gladly welcome said distractions.
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North Korea might attack some boats or maybe even do some shelling, but "aggression on its border" seems unlikely IMO. Whatever else, North Korea does not want a war with South Korea. And South Korea does not want a war with North Korea. Never mind nukes or nuclear allies, that war would be the end of both of them.
 
Big attack on Ukraine's infrastructure this morning.

Blackouts in Ukraine as Russia targets power grid
A “massive” Russian missile and drone attack has targeted power infrastructure across Ukraine, the country's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

It is the largest such assault since early September, with reports of multiple explosions across the country, according to authorities and local media.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o
 
VorZakone said:
Big attack on Ukraine's infrastructure this morning.

Blackouts in Ukraine as Russia targets power grid

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o
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I am reading that things are not going well for Ukraine and Russia senses that and is making a very strong push.

Unless the West steps up its support to Ukraine, I fear that the outcome is not going to be good and Russia is going to secure much more territory.
 
Buster15 said:
I am reading that things are not going well for Ukraine and Russia senses that and is making a very strong push.

Unless the West steps up its support to Ukraine, I fear that the outcome is not going to be good and Russia is going to secure much more territory.
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Russia doesn't have the manpower to gain that territory and hold it as they are working on many fronts as well.

Most likely they will gain few villages here and there in Donetsk. They might take Chasiv Yar and Toretsk and reach Pokrovsk, but I doubt they will take it easily or quickly.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Russia doesn't have the manpower to gain that territory and hold it as they are working on many fronts as well.

Most likely they will gain few villages here and there in Donetsk. They might take Chasiv Yar and Toretsk and reach Pokrovsk, but I doubt they will take it easily or quickly.
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"Gradually, then suddenly"

No one quite expected Ukraine to bulldoze their way through the Russians in the Kharkiv offensive of 2022. While unlikely, I wouldn't rule out a Ukrainian collapse in certain places along the front. They still have severe manpower issues and are outgunned.
 
VorZakone said:
"Gradually, then suddenly"

No one quite expected Ukraine to bulldoze their way through the Russians in the Kharkiv offensive of 2022. While unlikely, I wouldn't rule out a Ukrainian collapse in certain places along the front. They still have severe manpower issues and are outgunned.
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Yes. I have read rather alarmingly that there has started to be a number of desertions in the Ukrainian ground forces and that morale is quite low.

This really is put up or shut up time for the West. Unless it is going to continue it's support of Ukraine, all that money and arns it has provided is going to be wasted.
 
Buster15 said:
I am reading that things are not going well for Ukraine and Russia senses that and is making a very strong push.

Unless the West steps up its support to Ukraine, I fear that the outcome is not going to be good and Russia is going to secure much more territory.
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Things are definitely not going well for Ukraine.

Things are also going very well for Ukraine in many aspects, relative to the past 3 years.

Things are also definitely not going well for Russia.
 
Buster15 said:
This really is put up or shut up time for the West. Unless it is going to continue it's support of Ukraine, all that money and arns it has provided is going to be wasted.
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It's certainly moving that way, and Europe should be thinking seriously about what happens before Trump tries his 'rabbit out of a hat' trick to end the war. If Ukraine is defeated, Europe will be standing on its own against Russia for at least 4 years and maybe longer, especially if the majority of people in the US come to think Trump is doing a good job!
 
Buster15 said:
This really is put up or shut up time for the West.
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They have nothing more to put up that they are willing to put up. Read the BBC's live text right now on their website, it is a parade of Ukrainian MPs saying that the West hasn't come close to supplying them with what they've promised. This is a point Zelenskiy keeps making on his Twitter. While the West is laughing at Russia for turning to North Korea for ammunition, North Korea has supplied Russia with 3 times the artillery this year than the entire EU has given to Ukraine. While the West is laughing at North Korean soldiers fighting and dying in Kursk, the West is continuing to celebrate the fact that "Not one drop of NATO blood had been spilled in this war, and it never will be".

Zelenskiy, Podolyak and Yermak are all making the same point that I was making 2 years ago. Russia's "evil" allies are giving Russia what it needs to WIN the war. Ukraine's "good guy" allies are not, and they never intended to. Thankfully the people who matter are starting to realise they've been strung along.
 
HTG said:
He’s right. Scholz is a disaster.
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Just about the most lily livered major leader one can think of. He'd fold a full house at the first raise in poker.

Probably also thinks Grima Wormtongue was the foiled protagonist of The Two Towers, a humble man simply trying to bring peace in our time with minimal bloodshed.
 
Yeah, Scholz is the reason Ukraine is in this mess. Biden, Blinken and Sullivan have been fearless warriors. Every time they promised to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes while taking "the greatest of care not to escalate things", Putin took all of 2 minutes to consider the latest volley of missiles at Ukraine's infrastructure.

There is only one country that could have made Russia lose this "existential war for the international rules-based order" and it is the USA. They have chosen not to. But sure, let's scapegoat Scholz.
 
DT12 said:
Yeah, Scholz is the reason Ukraine is in this mess. Biden, Blinken and Sullivan have been fearless warriors. Every time they promised to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes while taking "the greatest of care not to escalate things", Putin took all of 2 minutes to consider the latest volley of missiles at Ukraine's infrastructure.

There is only one country that could have made Russia lose this "existential war for the international rules-based order" and it is the USA. They have chosen not to. But sure, let's scapegoat Scholz.
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Exactly. Germany could (and in my opinion should) have done more, but we at least opened our scrap yards for Ukraine (and additionally sent the most modern air defense systems the German industry has to offer). Meanwhile thousands of Abrams are still just standing in the desert.
 
The analysis is one of several on the evolving partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions. They stressed that such a move wasn’t imminent and that military support at that scale — if it occurred — would likely happen in batches with troops rotating over time rather than in a single deployment.
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Feel for the koreans... living under that cnut wasn't enough, now they're going to die by the thousands halfway across the world.
 
Maticmaker said:
It's certainly moving that way, and Europe should be thinking seriously about what happens before Trump tries his 'rabbit out of a hat' trick to end the war. If Ukraine is defeated, Europe will be standing on its own against Russia for at least 4 years and maybe longer, especially if the majority of people in the US come to think Trump is doing a good job!
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Yes indeed.
Nothing is going to happen regarding Trump for at least a couple of months.
And by then, it could be too late.

No. It is up to the current President Biden to deal with it. After all. He will hardly want his legacy to be that the war in Ukraine was effectively lost on his watch.
 
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