Serious amount of disinformation being put out by the Ukrainians so far in this war, no reason to believe a word coming out of Kiev. Obviously Moscow is probably worse but I’m really wary of our view and expectations of this crisis being shaped by online algorithms funneling an overwhelmingly pro-Ukrainian and by extension narrow and distorted picture through to us.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Serious amount of disinformation being put out by the Ukrainians so far in this war, no reason to believe a word coming out of Kiev. Obviously Moscow is probably worse but I’m really wary of our view and expectations of this crisis being shaped by online algorithms funneling an overwhelmingly pro-Ukrainian and by extension narrow and distorted picture through to us.
Pardon my ignorance, but how common is the bolded bit among citizens of countries that were former soviets? The Ukrainian family I’m sponsoring also told me their mother tongue is Russian. Not that it matters of course but I guess I wasn’t expecting it.
Quite common. Having been born in USSR it was always about Russian language prevailing other languages. It was a shame not to speak Russian but it was not that of a big deal of not being able to speak the language of your nationality.
Probably very common. In my travels throughout Ukraine (including Crimea), I actually didn't encounter anyone who didn't speak Russian as a first language. That's obviously not to say they agreed with Russian politics. A majority of Russian speakers seem to be in the east and south.
These are Psy-Ops that take place pretty regularly during war. They are more so military operations to influence outcomes than attempts to inform as we may be accustomed to by way of routine press reports. Ukrainian intel are well aware of Putin's extreme paranoia, so if this helps to destabilize him amongst his inner circle, then it will be viewed as a success - even if it doesn't immediately yield any tangible policy changes.
Putin must be absolutely bricking it right now after a month in which everything imaginable has gone wrong for him, so this sort of destabilizing narrative will only make things worse.
It is, they don't care.
The BBC reports:
"Ukrainian defense officials have claimed that Russia's Kostroma 331st Guards Airborne Regiment has been destroyed by its forces.
In an update posted to the Ukrainian General Staff's Facebook page, officials said that the regiment had been involved in engagements around the capital city of Kyiv and that just one member of the unit had survived an encounter with Ukrainian troops.
The update also claimed that the commandant's office in the Russian city of Belgorod was investigating a case against 10 servicemen of the 138th motorised rifle brigade who mutinied after taking heavy losses during an offensive in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
The BBC cannot independently verify these claims."
"Ukrainian defense officials have claimed that Russia's Kostroma 331st Guards Airborne Regiment has been destroyed by its forces.
In an update posted to the Ukrainian General Staff's Facebook page, officials said that the regiment had been involved in engagements around the capital city of Kyiv and that just one member of the unit had survived an encounter with Ukrainian troops.
The update also claimed that the commandant's office in the Russian city of Belgorod was investigating a case against 10 servicemen of the 138th motorised rifle brigade who mutinied after taking heavy losses during an offensive in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
The BBC cannot independently verify these claims."
Key Takeaways:
- We now assess that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed;
- Russian forces continue efforts to restore momentum to this culminated campaign, but those efforts will likely also fail;
- Russian troops will continue trying to advance to within effective artillery range of the center of Kyiv, but prospects for their success are unclear;
- The war will likely descend into a phase of bloody stalemate that could last for weeks or months;
- Russia will expand efforts to bombard Ukrainian civilians in order to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting (at which the Russians will likely fail);
- The most dangerous current Russian advance is from Kherson north toward Kryvyi Rih in an effort to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to surround or take Kryvyi Rih in the coming days, and may not be able to do so at all without massing much larger forces for the effort than they now have available on that axis;
- The Russians appear to have abandoned plans to attack Odesa at least in the near term.
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This is a good timeline and visualization of the foreshadowing by Russia that they were going to bomb hospitals and the bombing of the maternity hospital in Mauriopol. It's also why all of their warnings about chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, and terrorist attacks make it obvious that Russia is considering doing all of these things.
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/03/europe/mariupol-maternity-hospital-attack/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/03/europe/mariupol-maternity-hospital-attack/index.html
If that’s true, that’s a big blow to the Russians. I know the 331st commander was confirmed KIA a couple days ago. That unit is considered to be elite.
Quietly floated sounds like an offer they can not refuse. At least hopefully. Ukraine having the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile would be almost as good as a no fly zone.
Turkey aren't doing that at all. Why would they be happy to accept any shit for it, also that then feels like a more blatant NATO intervention doesn't it?
What do you mean by a more blatant intervention? NATO have been supplying tons of arms already along with intelligence.
As opposed to all the other weapons NATO countries have given Ukraine?
The Ukrainians are already receiving Stingers and Javelins from NATO, and Turkey has been supplying them with the Bayraktar drones they are using to hit Russian ground targets, so this wouldn't be anything new. It would however make it harder for the Russians to fly over Ukraine, which would ostensibly give the Ukrainians aspects of the no fly zone they've wanted from the beginning.
I do wonder if eventually the peaceful protests by the occupied Ukrainians turn into more violent resistance.
I think it’s much less common in the baltic states and when it comes to youth (<25) in Lithuania (where I’m coming from) there’s probably less than 10% that can speak Russian to any level. I just grew up in the small region where Russian is widely spoken still, including my family. Although, this experience will not translate to other post-soviet countries where Russian is still very much present in the public to a great degree as @Water Melon has mentioned.
Just a thought I've been pondering but all of these soldiers that clearly don't wanna be there and are shocked and appalled by the response from Ukrainian citizens to their occupration.
What happens when they go back to Russia feeling throughly demoralised and pissed off that they've been sent away for something like this?
Do they kick off at the Kremlin, maybe in rather large numbers?
What happens when they go back to Russia feeling throughly demoralised and pissed off that they've been sent away for something like this?
Do they kick off at the Kremlin, maybe in rather large numbers?
Highly doubtful there would be enough of them to make a difference. If Putin falls it will be through an inner circle coup or a popular uprising among Russian civilians, with some support from the security apparatus.
I do wonder if eventually the peaceful protests by the occupied Ukrainians turn into more violent resistance.
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I'm pretty sure it will if the Russians don't pull out of the new territory they've occupied.
Not only would the Russians have to tie up large numbers of troops for their defence of those areas (troops they can ill-afford, given their ongoing losses), but also those troops will in my view increasingly become the target of assassinations, road-side bombs, grenades lobbed through open doors/windows into vehicles, plus never-ending hit-and-run attacks by the Ukrainian military. It will become a nightmare for Russian soldiers if they don't withdraw.
And I thought we learned plenty enough on how to abide by international laws when it comes to war-related conventions in the last 7 decades or so. Taking civilians away into (concentration) camps is the worst of all.
Fecking twats, those Russian troops taking part in this.
Yes obviously NATO is providing weaponry but that's just like Cold War. Give weapons but you fight stuff
This feels, at least to me, a more direct action from a NATO state to actively do something against Russia/take something of theirs
Orban’s Hungary is a trojan horse, unfortunately.
Yeah, way too heavy at this point. Some interesting companies out there working on the battery problem, my brother is invested in one.
Playing a blinder so far. Can’t help thinking though the longer this drags the less effective his messaging will be.
How? The SAM launchers will be given to Ukraine and Ukraine will operate them.
Turkey can't be excited about the idea of Russia taking Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia, getting their army much closer to Turkey.
But then Russia won't want to sell them any more S-400s if they send them to Ukraine either.
It depends where they are. Most of these cities in the south were not equipped and able to prepare an armed resistance. Even the military retreated to a better tactical position and gave these cities up without too much resistance. It will be very different in cities defended by the military and with enough willing insurgents who have had time to prepare. Protesting like this is what they should be doing.
All this does make me laugh though when people say that there’s nothing that the Russians in Russia can do to protest and end this war. The problem is far too more of them are supportive of this war or complicit with their indifference than we really want to admit. There’s not that critical mass of people willing to give their lives for change as there was and is in Ukraine, and almost was in Belarus.
Sure, that's why he tried a fast attack first. But leveling cities is pretty much his only military option at this point. He'd rather rebuild Ukraine under Russian control than see it strong and independent. A strong Ukraine would be impossible to control.
How can you… be, how can you exist and still feel anything but distain for yourself after doing something like this. It’s not even a quasi-military situation anymore where you can try to shield yourself by the enemy narrative.
One thing that I have not seen mentioned is how lucky Russia have got with the weather. Global warming is making Spring all over Europe much warmer than it used to be, but there’s been so little rain or snow to soften the ground and demoralise the troops further. They have almost had the perfect weather so far.
Yep. If he can’t have it, no-one will.