Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Any possibility that Putin will lose Belorusia and his cronies there? I think that this war is not very popular with Belarusian people.


"Belarusian railway workers have reportedly cut off all rail connections between their country and Ukraine.

Ukrainian railway chief Olexander Kamyshin thanked Belarusian railway workers for this claimed act of sabotage on Saturday."

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/othe...tedly-cut-connections-live-updates/ar-AAVh3Ar
Belarus people are a lost cause for Putin since 2020, majority in Belarus are anti-Russian now due to Putin’s support shown to Lukashenko. Russian OMON has been part of the brutal events in Minsk back in 2020 too.
 
Not from afar, I had quite a few Russian friends/relatives and since the war they turned full on nazis on my Facebook feed just parroting their TV propaganda. My native language is Russian and I can really feel the sentiment around this on social media platforms at least and believe me it’s not looking good at all.
Seconded.
 
A country with allegedly 1300 warplanes including gen 5 stealth jets, has failed to dominate the airspace against a country with 37 MiG-29s and 32 Su-27s. And that's despite the defenders having no long-range/high-altitude SAM missiles like S-400 or Patriot. Their air defences are literally low altitude MANPADS.

They will write books of this level of failure.

Great post.
 
It is, but it's perfectly consistent with historical Russian/Soviet strategy. They forcibly removed all of the Tatars in Crimea to Siberia During WWII and moved lots of Russians there, which is why it's much more pro-Russian than it used to be.
My wife’s grandparents were moved all over the Soviet Union for “work”.
 
I reject that argument. What do you think Russia would be doing now to former Soviet countries that hadn't joined? They would either be under threat or destabilised because Putin is an expansionist dictator. Putin is and always has been the problem, not NATO.
Yeah im not entirely convinced by my own argument to be honest. I think part of the argument is that it could potentially have done a better job to turn Russia towards being a legitimate democracy but i dont really see how NATO is that relevant or an obstacle to it.
 
Yeah im not entirely convinced by my own argument to be honest. I think part of the argument is that it could potentially have done a better job to turn Russia towards being a legitimate democracy but i dont really see how NATO is that relevant or an obstacle to it.
The argument could be.

NATO’s expansion is used by Putin to gather people in solidarity against the “western enemy”. Thus solidifying his own grip on power and crushing democracy aspiration in the process.
 
Hypothetically, if Putin was somehow assassinated, would the war suddenly end? Or would they just put the next guy in the driving seat and carry on where he left?
 
These industrial sites, factories and plants that are being attacked by missiles. Surely you would want them available to you to use once youve taken control if that was the aim. Doesn't seem like it is, Putin just wants to obliterate Ukraine.
 


Although not about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the lyrics nonetheless are completely relevant.
Putin is the Zombie. Still clinging onto the Cold War trying to recreate the former and failed Soviet Union.
I challenge anyone to listen to the words and not be moved.
 


Has someone by any chance stumbled upon a translated version of this, or an article that gives an idea how reliable this poll is?
 
Hypothetically, if Putin was somehow assassinated, would the war suddenly end? Or would they just put the next guy in the driving seat and carry on where he left?

I'm not an expert and only became interested in Russian power structure due to the war, so not really an educated opinion. But from what I've read, Putin's inner circle and the second most powerful institution in Russia are the siloviki. Former KGB officers like him who are also obsessed with reestablishing the glory of the Soviet Union. Apparently some of them contributed a lot to Putin's world view and are just as delusional as him. Thing is, this is seen primarily as Putin's war so they could possibly retreat without it looking like their personal defeat.

Personally I believe assassinating Putin is a really, really risky idea. It might unite Russia against the West again and could be understood as a declaration of war. It could as well lead to the system imploding because everything revolves around him and the siloviki alone possibly aren't strong enough to keep it all together. It's better to create tension, IMO. The sanctions will take their toll on Russia. Even without them Russia would have a hard time supplying the war but with them it'll be impossible. With increasing pressure, even the elites will turn on each other since they still have their own interests in mind. It's by no means a sustainable or robust way of running a state and now that it is really put to test, it will show.

I also believe a "death by a thousand stings", especially if those stings come from within, is less likely to escalate the war than an assassination.
 

Yes, really.

As I said, Russia does not have enough troops to even encircle the vast perimeter of Kyiv, far less take a city where, in an urban environment, the general rule is that attackers will die at six times the rate of of defenders.

Indeed, the latest reports suggest that, due to Ukrainian counter-attacks, the Russians have been pushed back further away from Kyiv and forced to dig in defensive positions. It may even be that this large Russian army in the north is stuck, not even able to retreat back to where they came from.

You seem to be unware of the scale of Russian losses. On even a conservative estimate, 30,000 troops are now out of action: dead, wounded, captured, surrendered or deserted.

Edit: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is "pretty demoralised, pretty stuck and pretty stalled," the former UK head of Defence Intelligence says.
 
Last edited:
What are the ordinary Russians supposed to do? Their elections are rigged, their opposition parties and voices are completely silenced.

Could you make a similar case and hold all the average US and UK citizens responsible for the instability in the Middle East and Afghanistan? Despite being democratic nations, people of these countries couldn’t do anything to stop their military from bombing these other nations. What/how do you expect citizens of an autocratic country to influence their regime?
The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq did need popular support in the US to get started, so yes the average american also bears that responsibility.
 
What are the ordinary Russians supposed to do? Their elections are rigged, their opposition parties and voices are completely silenced
I wonder if there are examples in neighbouring countries they could look to? I wonder.
 
What are the ordinary Russians supposed to do? Their elections are rigged, their opposition parties and voices are completely silenced.

Could you make a similar case and hold all the average US and UK citizens responsible for the instability in the Middle East and Afghanistan? Despite being democratic nations, people of these countries couldn’t do anything to stop their military from bombing these other nations. What/how do you expect citizens of an autocratic country to influence their regime?

I would 100% hold the citizens of those countries responsible, even more so than Russian ones.

Not only did the wars go ahead from both of those countries, both of them then proceeded to re-elect the leaders who had taken them into war.
 
Also have found some of thr discourse around the Chechnyans slightly weird.

First of all being lumped in with Syrians. I appreciate that Kadyrov essentially leads his own kingdom there but they are still Russians. It's therefore not this uniquely strange thing that Russians are called up in a Russian war.

Secondly this building up of them into almost semi mythical figures. They're men, normal men. Perhaps more used to hard situations than the average man in Europe but men nontheless. We're not talking about 100 BC anymore, wars aren't fought based on strength and swords and Spears. You may not even see your enemy before they take you out.
 
Hypothetically, if Putin was somehow assassinated, would the war suddenly end? Or would they just put the next guy in the driving seat and carry on where he left?

Why would he do that? If Putin knew he would need a full month to conquer Ukraine, he would never start the whole thing. It was a blunder, but now he can't just quit because everyone would want his head.

If Putin is eliminated, all Russians will blame everything on Putin and they will all swear that they never ever supported Putin, never ever liked Putin not even a little bit, never ever knew who Putin was, same as Stalin.
 
Not from afar, I had quite a few Russian friends/relatives and since the war they turned full on nazis on my Facebook feed just parroting their TV propaganda. My native language is Russian and I can really feel the sentiment around this on social media platforms at least and believe me it’s not looking good at all.
I guess a good number must buy into the propaganda or at least get behind their troops if they're at war.
Plenty are 100% believing every pro-Ukraine tweet, as if both sides don't misinform and distort during war. Some just believe what they want to I guess.
 
Also have found some of thr discourse around the Chechnyans slightly weird.

First of all being lumped in with Syrians. I appreciate that Kadyrov essentially leads his own kingdom there but they are still Russians. It's therefore not this uniquely strange thing that Russians are called up in a Russian war.

Secondly this building up of them into almost semi mythical figures. They're men, normal men. Perhaps more used to hard situations than the average man in Europe but men nontheless. We're not talking about 100 BC anymore, wars aren't fought based on strength and swords and Spears. You may not even see your enemy before they take you out.
Agree here. Assuming that you can win a war on the idea that your men are culturally "tougher" has proven to be a folly every time at least in the 20th century. The distinction that most counts is motivated and then experienced/well trained. If the Chechens are that because of their experiences in the late 90s and maybe since, then they can make a bigger contribution than another average unit. Other than that, a bullet or shrapnel does the same thing to an elite soldier as it does to a fresh conscript.
 
Byelorussia will be the next nation to drop out of Russia's orbit and look westward.

When Ukraine joins the EU, more and more Byelorussian people will look at their neighbour and get ideas. At some point there will be an uprising, supported by Ukraine, and Russia will be so weakened militarily and economically by this current war and the ongoing sanctions that they won't be able to stop it.
 
I guess a good number must buy into the propaganda or at least get behind their troops if they're at war.
Plenty are 100% believing every pro-Ukraine tweet, as if both sides don't misinform and distort during war. Some just believe what they want to I guess.
Jippy, problem is Ukrainian misinformation is harmless essentially (mostly with the intention to rise awareness and not let some other stupid news to dominate in the west media), it does not stop the destruction and Ukrainian genocide which we’re seeing, they’re the ones getting occupied not Russia.
 
These industrial sites, factories and plants that are being attacked by missiles. Surely you would want them available to you to use once youve taken control if that was the aim. Doesn't seem like it is, Putin just wants to obliterate Ukraine.
And you have clowns still thinking that’s something about Nato or chemical weapons. :lol: Putin just couldn’t stand a flourishing Ukraine which pivoted to the west on its doorstep, it would basically expose him domestically even amongst the most stupid.
 
Ukrainians throwing this out there to create chaos in Putin's mind?



Unless the new Putin were willing to hold an actual free election in the country and step down when the time comes, I don't think having yet another (younger) FSB guy in charge would make things any better. I think we ought to keep the sanctions up if that were the case really.
 
And you have clowns still thinking that’s something about Nato or chemical weapons. :lol: Putin just couldn’t stand a flourishing Ukraine which pivoted to the west on its doorstep, it would basically expose him domestically even amongst the most stupid.

The money that will pump in for the rebuild will let Ukraine thrive anyway in the coming years I should think.
 
They don't and never have. Nobody, including Putin and cronies, believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed Russia. The idea that they might is just a convenient lie peddled by Putin.

This invasion is about crushing a free, independent and democratic Ukraine, lest it provides an example to the Russian people. This is what Putin fears. Everything else is just lies.

Well said, this is spot on.

But all of them are like avengers from MU. Imagine 1.4 million avengers.

It sounded like he was talking about some comic book stuff.

I heard they're like if Keanu Reeves had joined the avengers, all 1.4 million of them. Sobering thought ey.
 
I wonder to what degree Ukrainian agents inside Russia have penetrated the Russian security and intelligence services? Being able to more easily recruit agents who speak Russian like a native, and knowing the inside tracks on Russia probably better than any Western agents can, must be distinct advantages.