I'm worried that, like Trump, Orban intends to hold the line with the EU until he wins reelection next month. Then he will be more disruptive and torpedo EU sanctions.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I'm worried that, like Trump, Orban intends to hold the line with the EU until he wins reelection next month. Then he will be more disruptive and torpedo EU sanctions.
Here’s the full article he referenced in post 5 for anyone who wants to read it. From The Institute for the Study of War report by Frederick Kagan, George Barros and Kateryna Stepanenko from March 19th.
http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/03/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_19.html
Turkey have been supplying drones, why would this be any different?
Pretty much the opposite vis à vis the ground, they waited too long to invade. They needed frozen ground for their mechanized divisions. That’s why we’ve seen pics of stuck weaponry in the mud. I wouldn’t be surprised if the soft conditions have hampered the infamous stuck convoy. Temps have been temperate, but that helps both sides.
The mud definitely has had a massive impact, as it limits the Russian trucks to operate on roads. Block the roads, and they can't go offroad under current circumstances. Usually you wouldn't be able to stop such a massive convoy by destroying single vehicles.
The drones were sold before the war though, weren’t they? Plus they are Turkish drones. Quite different to to supplying Ukraine with Russian weapons systems, purchased only couple of years back, mid-war.
The BBC reports:
"Russian officials have confirmed that the deputy commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paly, died in combat in Mariupol.
Earlier we reported that Ukraine claimed to have killed him. Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol, a port city battered by Russian shelling.
Paly's death was initially confirmed by the secretary of the Nakhimov naval college, Konstantin Tsarenko, on social network Vkontakte (VK)."
"Russian officials have confirmed that the deputy commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paly, died in combat in Mariupol.
Earlier we reported that Ukraine claimed to have killed him. Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol, a port city battered by Russian shelling.
Paly's death was initially confirmed by the secretary of the Nakhimov naval college, Konstantin Tsarenko, on social network Vkontakte (VK)."
In my understanding is bc the drons are turkish made, while giving elite russian equipement to fight against russia would make that russia will not sell ever any equipement to turkey. And this equipement was purchased because US refuse to sell an elite US equipement to them. So if you have both countries that are reluctant to sell you their equipement in the future (it doesnt matter if they would struck a excepcional deal on yhis ocasion, US is not and will not be in the short term a friend of turkey) then you are cutting off your future military prspective. And military is a very important part of turkey's external policy in their inmmediate neighbours for obvious reasons.
Turkey will not agree to that
Didn't they lose like 21 out of 22 para trooper units in the first couple days? And multiple convoys of vehicles, dozens of planes and even top units like the chechens. There's no cohesive plan, it's like they're throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what works
Pure class.
VDV is essentially an evil looking riot police, that is their purpose. They are not trained for military battles and combat. They were used because Russia did not expect having to fight a real war, so it is quite logically that VDV suffered heavy losses.
Romanian side Politehnica Iași trying to spell 'STOP WAR'.
Which might have been the plan all along. Despite the news narrative.
If the regime in Russia survives this war, they will be happy to sell anything to anyone and will not be able to afford holding grudges.
But as it is March now, the conditions could be a lot worse at this time of year. Winter has advantages for the hard ground, but troops would be exposed to harsh cold.
I don’t think it was plan A, but was certainly always likely the plan B.
That is actually not true at all. I was also surprised by the U-turn, but they had to react quickly as we will have an election in 2 weeks. I also do not expect that it will change after the election as Orban is pragmatic and there is hardly any reason to side with Putin. I am actually proud of our efforts in these times, because we took care of about 500 000 refugees so far and sending further support to Zakarpattia Oblast. The second biggest city in Hungary is Debrecen with 200 000 citizens, just for comparison.
But have we not been seeing and reading about Russian armoured vehicles being stuck in the mud?
We have. But it could have been much worse, especially in the South. All those stuck in the mud appeared to be on the Northern front.
They could take on any army in Europe, never forget
They quoted Atlatszo. And when I looked I found this which corroborate the claims, at least for the first week of the war.
Then again I totally agree with your analysis. Orban is not stupid. He will side with the West and respect EU’s decisions. He will have to do it wholeheartedly, at least out of pragmatism.
I'd imagine Orban and Fidesz have to walk a tightrope between being being somewhat friendly with Putin and NATO membership obligations. If it looks like Putin is losing, Orban will be incentivized to be more vocal against the invasion imo.
One of the tasty subplots in all of this is how the Klingons of the Russian Federation (Kadyrov and Co) have been farcically ineffective in living up to the tough guy image they've promoted over the years.
Last edited:
That's a good source. It couldn't be easy to make such a U-turn and in the first few days there were some other voices, but they quickly decided which is the right way to communicate before the election. I quicky checked the article and I can imagine that the "experts" who were making comments are truly siding with Russia, but they haven't got any airtime since then (if I'm not mistaken).
We have an election in two weeks, so Orban and Fidesz had to quickly distance themselves from Putin, but the people are not completely stupid which made it a bit difficult. I don't think that there is any way back to Putin, so Orban and co must restore the relationship with the European Union.
The tricky situation is that we are completely reliant on the Russian gas - among other things -, and I don't know how much reserve we have, but our industry would basically stop once it runs out. As a consequence, our currency plummeted really quickly in the first few days and there was already high inflation in the country.
I always felt they look like Remans inside the Romulan Empire though. Remans are a race of slaves of the Romulan Empire from the neighboring planet Remus, used as miners and cannon fodder.
Feels like Kherson are just waiting to pounce once the tide changes.
Yeah could be. I always thought of the Klingons as the most neaderthalish of all Trek characters, which is why Kadyrov reminded me of them.
Still blows my mind this is actually happening.
Changing street names? What?
Maybe we should ask them if Russians want to name a street in Moscow after Lavrentyi Beria when one knows the kind of monster he was.
Russian "negotiators" still not taking things seriously, "mediators" trying to show they are actually doing something.
Presumably to aid in Russia's excuse for being there.