Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
 
You honestly think they didn't?

The coalition went in with UN Security Council authorization because Iraq had literally invaded Kuwait. What false pretenses are there? Unless you don't know the difference between George HW Bush and George W Bush...
 
The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
Great point, and an issue I feel is left in the background,

The whole last 8 years of western politics have been dominated by russian influence, it's a Curtis documentary waiting to happen.
 
Great point, and an issue I feel is left in the background,

The whole last 8 years of western politics have been dominated by russian influence, it's a Curtis documentary waiting to happen.
Russia basically killed all their subversion efforts with this invasion. Fewer people will take these populists serious anymore. That's my expectation anyway.
 
Russia basically killed all their subversion efforts with this invasion. Fewer people will take these populists serious anymore. That's my expectation anyway.
Indeed, almost feel like this is a last throw of the dice by Russia/Putin with regards to their political outlook.
 
The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
That sounds very optimistic to me. Putin isn’t alone. China is just as interested in undermining western democracies. And The populists will still be hugely supported by Orban and his coalition.

And to be honest, EU’s reaction to Russia’s propaganda has been quite poor. The level of censure is ridiculous and very unhealthy for our democracies.That will undoubtedly backfire and play into the hands of conspiracy theorists and other extremists.
 
Channel 4 News also showed this tonight. Hard to describe anything like this as Ukrainian winning. The country is being slowly pummelled to destruction.
It's not. This is happening to few cities close to Russian territory, where the Russian logistics is intact. They are not able to support their troops deeper into the country to perform this kind of attack. In most of Ukraine Russia is limited to careful airstrikes (and those are always risky as the air defense is still working), in some areas where Russian troops are active they have to be careful as they don't have working support lines and can't waste resources on massive shelling.
 
Trouble is, Putin is operating without any restrictions which will allow him to do whatever he wants in Ukraine, and if that's allowed, there's nothing that will disincentivize him from going beyond Ukraine. There has to therefore be a strong line of demarcation that will result in NATO taking action before he completely decimates Ukraine and its population with chemical weapons, thermobarics, false flags involving some sort of WMD, or just general incompetence that results in a nuclear reactor spewing radiation across Europe. Biden and NATO are playing this a bit too safe at the moment, which is actually incentivizing Putin to be more brutal within Ukraine, because he suspects those watching him don't have the courage to stop him.

What would be an appropriate response from the US?
Beyond strong sanctions that is.
 
An optimistic view here. And a really good read.



There is optimism and there is delusion, I think a lot of that read is of the latter.

I don't see Russia backing down, in fact I think it will galvernise them and as we know, propaganda is a very strong tool that Russia will use on its people to increase support.

I also believe we've seen nothing yet of the level that Russia will increase attacks, this is a war Putin can't afford to lose and he will do anything to ensure he doesn't.

I'd love to think Russia's army will be defeated and Ukraine manages to hold out, but that is very unlikely given the fatigue and state the country will be in after months of shelling. There is only so much you can take from constant bombardment of missiles, day and night, week after week. That is being completely ignored in this guy's article.
 
I’ve just heard that Britain is finally opening its doors to refugees - does anyone else have confirmation? Better late than never I suppose.
 
I also believe we've seen nothing yet of the level that Russia will increase attacks, this is a war Putin can't afford to lose and he will do anything to ensure he doesn't.

I'd love to think Russia's army will be defeated and Ukraine manages to hold out, but that is very unlikely given the fatigue and state the country will be in after months of shelling.
Looking at the Russian logistics issues it is however possible that they won't be able to increase their attacks much, and also that they won't be able to sustain it for months. It is optimistic, but not impossible that Ukraine can repel them in a few weeks.
 
Looking at the Russian logistics issues it is however possible that they won't be able to increase their attacks much, and also that they won't be able to sustain it for months. It is optimistic, but not impossible that Ukraine can repel them in a few weeks.
Not with soldiers but I suspect they can level the cities with artillery given enough time. Ukraine don't seem able to stop that, even if they can hunt tanks successfully and disrupt supply lines in general.

I think the West needs to step up their assistance before there's nothing left of the country.
 
There is optimism and there is delusion, I think a lot of that read is of the latter.

I don't see Russia backing down, in fact I think it will galvernise them and as we know, propaganda is a very strong tool that Russia will use on its people to increase support.

I also believe we've seen nothing yet of the level that Russia will increase attacks, this is a war Putin can't afford to lose and he will do anything to ensure he doesn't.

I'd love to think Russia's army will be defeated and Ukraine manages to hold out, but that is very unlikely given the fatigue and state the country will be in after months of shelling. There is only so much you can take from constant bombardment of missiles, day and night, week after week. That is being completely ignored in this guy's article.

What about the fatigue of Russian troops after months in the field, being killed and wounded day after day? There are no available troops to rotate/replace them with.
 
What do everyday Russians think about this war?

I found the "1420" channel in youtube. This channel has short videos where a young guy asks questions to people in Moscow. From this channel alone, I got these impressions about Russians:

1. They are like us.
2. They still support Putin.

I know that the first one sounds silly, but since I have never been to Russia, it was surprising for me that everything looks very much like any north european city. The second one was a big surprise. Most of them don't see a big problem, and certainly they don't feel ashamed about the destruction of Ukraine, the deaths, the 2 million refugees. Perhaps they don't know much about it? But still ... these people look sophisticated enough to get their news from the internet (see point 1)...

Now this channel is mostly about young people, and they live in Moscow, which is the capital. I'd bet that if you ask the same questions in a small city, 100% would support Putin and the war. And they would be against EU and the West in general.

Here is the link. Any suggestions for something else like this from Russia?
https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel/videos
 
Not with soldiers but I suspect they can level the cities with artillery given enough time. Ukraine don't seem able to stop that, even if they can hunt tanks successfully and disrupt supply lines in general.

I think the West needs to step up their assistance before there's nothing left of the country.
But which cities? Apparently only a few close to the border, not every city in the country. Mariupol might get the Grozny treatment, but cities like Riwne or Lviv are safe against that, simply due to the distance. So Ukraine is able to stop the Russian advances, and is therefore saving huge parts of the country. Russia isn't even able to convincingly take Kiyv under fire, they are regrouping there for days now. That doesn't look like they can burn the city to the ground.