He's such a terrifying character and the insane structure of Russia makes him even moreso.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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He's such a terrifying character and the insane structure of Russia makes him even moreso.
I think he expects political paralysis when it comes to actually using soldiers, unless a NATO country is invaded. I think Putin will happily take Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and add them to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Syria where he's propping up dictators. I don't know what up in Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia but they'll all be Putin's in time unless the West decides he needs to be stopped. Easier to fight him in Europe, logistically speaking.
I don't really like the "you will be next" narrative that some Ukranians are pushing. I understand why they do it, they're desperate but i'm not sure it's the right angle. It's not a total war, that's the very reason why they get limited help or why Putin, despite the fact that Russian seems to commit several war crimes on the ground, has not used (or at least consistently) his most lethal non-nuclear weapons.
I understand they want to drag NATO into this asap to protect their country but it's not going to happen yet unless Russia does something really stupid.
Eventually takes a very long time sometimes.
The disincentive is (a) he won't even be able to conquer Ukraine; (b) his military forces will soon be hugely weakened; (c) unrest inside Russia is rising; (d) NATO forces are far superior to Russia and would utterly destroy any Russian attempt to invade a NATO or EU country; (e) mutual assured destruction should such invasion escalate to nuclear exchange.
True. But the universe has no shortage of time.
If Putin used a tactical nuke in Kharkov and Kiev tomorrow, what should NATO's reaction be ?
Probably eastern Europe, but could be anywhere. The main point is that each time we didn't think he would do something, he did it.
The trouble is that the US political system is too convoluted and back stabby to allow this to happen without the R's claiming Biden caused WWIII. Thus paving the way for an increasing wave of Trumpians to win in the mid-terms and quite possibly Donald to regain the WH in 2024
Yes, that's another problem for Biden. Although if Putin uses a chemical weapon I suspect there will be rare bipartisanship in the response.
Yeah, that's the standard line.
But I'm more interested in where you think he could go next. We know any Nato country is off limits, so what's the next target? What both fits his ideology and still stays clear of WW3?
Also, if I may question further (and in good faith, I don't have an axe to grind with you), what is it you propose Nato do right now to stop him? I ask because all I keep seeing is "more intervention" and "getting involved" but I honestly have no idea what that means.
They have kept a large chunk of Donbas for eight years, including the two big cities. Don’t think it is beyond them to use all of their nefarious tricks to hold another coastal sliver. Plenty of Rosgvardiya will be shipped in, troublemakers will disappear, pliant civilians will be encouraged to relocate there etc.
I would say Moldova given the Russian interference there to date.
I don't quite buy the notion that Putin wants to invade more countries but if he did, it's probably Georgia or Moldova next. Might have a grudge against Kazakhstan too as they rejected his request to send troops.
As for more intervention, I suspect harsher sanctions on Russian gas/oil industry.
He would focus on any NATO country that was previously in the Soviet Union or the Soviet sphere. The Baltics would be leading contenders, as would any European nations seeking to join NATO (Finland/Sweden would be in the crosshairs for some form of meddling or intervention).
I wonder if the plain, white paper might just evolve to be the protest of choice in Russia?
NATO the organisation probably nothing. I'd expect the main countries to do a lot to separate China from Russia. If that happens then Putin's regime cannot possibly be propped up.
So you honestly think he'll start a war with NATO? And still the question remains, what is the next step to stop that?
Is there a solid idea of how that happens? Seems like China are only distancing themselves now they realise the Russians have got themselves into bother, not because they have suddenly changed their vision for expansion.
I guess what I'm getting at is I just don't see a path for Nato or even individual countries like Poland/Germany to do anything other than continue to supply Ukraine and sanctions and I certainly don't think China will allow themselves to be manipulated into distancing, they'll only do what suits them. So I just don't really get what these vague suggestions of doing more really means?
Me at 69 (hopefully) - 4 years into my retirement, enjoying life visiting different parts of the world in my motor home. Kids doing well in their careers. Just hoping that me and my wife’s health is good and my kids are doing ok.
Putin at 69 - not content with the billions hes acquired leading one of the most resource rich countries in world he wants a little bit more. He’s prepared to sacrifice 10s of thousands of people and make millions homeless to get what he wants.
This guy needs to be flayed and soaked in vinegar.
Putin at 69 - not content with the billions hes acquired leading one of the most resource rich countries in world he wants a little bit more. He’s prepared to sacrifice 10s of thousands of people and make millions homeless to get what he wants.
This guy needs to be flayed and soaked in vinegar.
If he thinks he can get away with it, he will do it. He has proven that repeatedly since the early 2000s. In many cases, he can foment trouble within countries without actually attacking them, thereby bypassing Article 5.
None of that is in doubt IMO. He's always been a threat, it's always been obvious he'll try something...I mean FFS the amount of "experts" saying "oh hell never invade Ukraine" whilst he plonks a 10th of that massive army right on the border is simply braindead.
But the question still remains of what is done about it now. What are you suggesting is to be done right now to help Ukraine win and stop his march? What are the choices here?
This depends on Putin's actions. If things are going as they are, he will eventually run out of resources because of poor execution, logistics, and morale - all at a time when his domestic economy is going to collapse.
He will try to negotiate his way out of this by attempting to gain a concession from the Ukrainians; which could be anything ranging from the annexation of Donbas, Ukrainian recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and some sort of written assurance that Ukraine doesn't join NATO.The Ukrainians, who are generally repelling and frustrating Russian advances - and with the knowledge that Putin's resources are not limitless - will not be incentivized to capitulate under terms Putin already demanded before the invasion. Putin will then have to make a choice as to whether he wants to double down on violence, use a thermobaric weapon, a WMD etc. in a desprate attempt to get the Ukrainans to surrender so he can force a negotiated settlement that is favorable to him, then call for a ceasefire under the pretext that he got something out of his "special operation".
NATO and Biden in particular, have to have a plan in place in case he uses a tactical nuke or chemical/biological weapon inside Ukraine. They can't use the same cowardly logic of "it would start WW3 if we intervened", because all it would do is incentivize Putin to continue doing what he's doing because he knows everyone is too scared to intervene. There has to be some sort of line of demarcation that is drawn (which should be the use of WMDs in Ukraine) that lets him know his actions will result in an immediate escalation.
NATO should also look at setting up a No Fly Zone in areas of Ukraine where there is no fighting and deconflict it with the Russians to prevent any accidents. This was done successfully in Syria and should be on the table in Ukraine as well.
Channel 4 News also showed this tonight. Hard to describe anything like this as Ukrainian winning. The country is being slowly pummelled to destruction.
Be interesting to a)see how the shipments get to Ukraine and...
B) what the ramifications would be if Russia meddled with the shipments, as surely that would be in NATO territory?
I suspect the Ukrainians pick it up across the border and bring it back to Ukraine.
I am nowhere near an expert so I cannot give you a firm answer. I have been fortunate to speak to people from Chatham House and a couple of diplomats before. Given what little I know I think every country will have designed war games or similar where Russia and China have to be diplomatically separated.
And there will be some idea of what moves will take place and what 'incentives' will be offered. You are right that China won't be manipulated. They will be given incentives. Quite what or how far the West will go I'm not sure about. But the UK had to do something similar to stop the French selling missiles to Argentina during the Falklands War. That took negotiation and they were an ally.
I think there will be discussions in NATO about red lines. You are absolutely asking the right questions as they are the ones I am asking too.
Sorry for rambling.
Only the West border is free, and with Lviv under apparent shelling, I'd imagine the net is closing in on the supply route.
This is disturbing, the Russian state news station claims the US will do nothing if they use war crimes level weapons in Ukraine.
How on earth does the Russian public digest this information and still support Putin?
How on earth does the Russian public digest this information and still support Putin?
I'm surprised how little Russia appears to have been targeting arms and other shipments, the border with Poland and Slovakia is long but there's not that many major crossing points. One truck looks pretty much the same as another from the air I guess.
That tanks just being friendly, it wants you to rub its belly
You honestly think they didn't?
Damn I went into the Iraq thread again...