Russian invasion of Ukraine

Monthly numbers on the national wealth fund are out. More relevant this month because December is when most bills fall due and when they have to draw on various funding sources, such as the nwf, to plug the budget deficit.


The 1.3 trillion rubles withdrawn equals what was already planned in their budget reports during the year, released around mid-2024. Problem is they increased the expected deficit by another 1.5 trillion rubles, without showing how that would be funded. That was around September, so the end figure could be higher. Its not coming from the nwf apparently and its not coming from bond sales, they barely reached just short of their target on those after some last-minute shenanigans.

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lfuhcotvmk25
 
Simbo said:
Monthly numbers on the national wealth fund are out. More relevant this month because December is when most bills fall due and when they have to draw on various funding sources, such as the nwf, to plug the budget deficit.


The 1.3 trillion rubles withdrawn equals what was already planned in their budget reports during the year, released around mid-2024. Problem is they increased the expected deficit by another 1.5 trillion rubles, without showing how that would be funded. That was around September, so the end figure could be higher. Its not coming from the nwf apparently and its not coming from bond sales, they barely reached just short of their target on those after some last-minute shenanigans.

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lfuhcotvmk25
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For which country are these numbers relevant? I'd Google it but can't be arsed.
 
Mike Waltz was on ABC News this week discussing the Ukraine war and negotiations.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/waltz-hamas-hostage-negotiations-underway/story?id=117587444

He said that there would be no more blank cheques/support as long as it takes. And that it is not realistic for Ukraine able to get all their territory back, and that the entire world is now realising that as well. And ofcourse dangers of escalation, this is growing into a world war, etc.

He also produced this nice quote in regards to their issues on the frontlines:

If the Ukrainians have asked the entire world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy, and they certainly have fought bravely, they certainly have taken a noble and tough stand, but we need to see those manpower shortages addressed. Which isn't just about ammunitions and writing more cheques, its about seeing those frontlines stabilized so we can enter into some kind of deal.
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And in this context he mentions lowering the draft age to 18 to address manpower issues. Which is something I had hoped would stop being discussed after Biden is gone.

It's a strange thing to talk about since he also mentioned that this was a bloody WW1 style meatgrinder with extreme number of casualties, and needed to be stopped as soon as possible. What sense is there to mobilize 18 year olds into such a war?

Do they have any clue on how they can bring a peace deal other than bullying Ukraine into accepting whatever concessions Russia demands, with threats of cutting off aid if they refuse? Marko Rubio also talked about the need for Ukraine to make concessions in a recent senate hearing, and that they would not be able to get all their territory back. Keith Kellogg has talked about that as well. They will try to make a peace deal at whatever cost to Ukraine it seems.
 
Mavs said:
Mike Waltz was on ABC News this week discussing the Ukraine war and negotiations.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/waltz-hamas-hostage-negotiations-underway/story?id=117587444

He said that there would be no more blank cheques/support as long as it takes. And that it is not realistic for Ukraine able to get all their territory back, and that the entire world is now realising that as well. And ofcourse dangers of escalation, this is growing into a world war, etc.

He also produced this nice quote in regards to their issues on the frontlines:



And in this context he mentions lowering the draft age to 18 to address manpower issues. Which is something I had hoped would stop being discussed after Biden is gone.

It's a strange thing to talk about since he also mentioned that this was a bloody WW1 style meatgrinder with extreme number of casualties, and needed to be stopped as soon as possible. What sense is there to mobilize 18 year olds into such a war?

Do they have any clue on how they can bring a peace deal other than bullying Ukraine into accepting whatever concessions Russia demands, with threats of cutting off aid if they refuse? Marko Rubio also talked about the need for Ukraine to make concessions in a recent senate hearing, and that they would not be able to get all their territory back. Keith Kellogg has talked about that as well. They will try to make a peace deal at whatever cost to Ukraine it seems.
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What a maddening dishonest cnut that guy is. The "blank cheque/support" is nothing but profitable investment for the US, given the perpetual savings from not having to spend on protecting Europe going forward, among other things, once this is done.
 
Simbo said:
What a maddening dishonest cnut that guy is. The "blank cheque/support" is nothing but profitable investment for the US, given the perpetual savings from not having to spend on protecting Europe going forward, among other things, once this is done.
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It is surprisingly heartless from him, implying that Ukraine will need to sacrifice more/fight harder if they want continued support, and that they are just getting free money to use as they please (at the expense of American taxpayers). Not quite Trump Jr. level but still pretty rough. But it is just a sales pitch to prepare public opinion for when they force Ukraine into signing a bad deal and pull out of support. It is also great motivation for Russia, both on the battlefield and politically. Depressing all around really.
 
There have been more than 1,000 drone strikes since last summer, injuring over 500 people and killing 36, according to municipal authorities. Surveillance drones patrol high up; smaller attack drones (known as FPVs, or first-person-view drones), with a flying time of between 20-40 minutes, sit on rooftops to conserve battery power. The munitions dropped are often makeshift: mortar shells, grenades, canisters containing shrapnel or darts, or bottles of petrol that ignite.
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The purpose of the Russian campaign is not clear. Mr Mrochko suggests the Russians are training drone pilots on Kherson’s civilians. Or it may be a tactic to establish a buffer zone, or to prepare for an offensive to retake part of the west bank of the river.
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The items and Ukrainian soldiers’ accounts of encounters with North Korean forces paint a picture of the secretive North Korean troops — whose existence has not been confirmed by Russia or North Korea — as highly motivated, organized, well-trained and better equipped than Russian infantry, even as they suffer heavy casualties.
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Simbo said:
:/

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Not sure if this is the same staff:

https://apnews.com/article/trump-national-security-council-staffers-d167985d61c96dd278b0e58a402ff865

This is just Trump being Trump isn't it, heavy handedly interfering with various government agencies without much concern for potential negative effects. And replacing existing staff from previous admin with his own.

There is a Washington Post article that may have more details but I don't have access to it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...mp-waltz-national-security-council-officials/
 
Mediazona is at 89,000 confirmed Russian deaths as of the latest update.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng-trl

The methodology for the above:
This list is compiled from verified, publicly available sources, including social media posts by family members, local news reports, and official announcements from regional authorities. This list is not exhaustive, as not every military death becomes public knowledge.
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Real KIA figure likely to be much higher. Different sources suggest a range from 100,000 to 150,000 deaths on the Russian side.
 
Mavs said:
Not sure if this is the same staff:

https://apnews.com/article/trump-national-security-council-staffers-d167985d61c96dd278b0e58a402ff865

This is just Trump being Trump isn't it, heavy handedly interfering with various government agencies without much concern for potential negative effects. And replacing existing staff from previous admin with his own.

There is a Washington Post article that may have more details but I don't have access to it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...mp-waltz-national-security-council-officials/
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Probably is part of the same story. Probably not much to do with Trump's ideas, he'll just be signing whatever the project 25 people put under his nose. Replacing existing government staff with loyalists is plat of that playbook. They've been talking about having thousands of people already recruited and ready to go for a while now. Dunno how that works with DoD positions though!
 
No idea what's going on with regards to Trump & Ukraine/Russia but its business as usual for Ukraine. All sort of targets being hit right now.

 
Simbo said:
Probably is part of the same story. Probably not much to do with Trump's ideas, he'll just be signing whatever the project 25 people put under his nose. Replacing existing government staff with loyalists is plat of that playbook. They've been talking about having thousands of people already recruited and ready to go for a while now. Dunno how that works with DoD positions though!
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Basically civilian staff, he can get rid of them and put new ones in, or governmental picks (but he has a limited pool).

He can't just take out the commander of the 7th Fleet and put in some MAGA asshat without any credentials though.
 
“Zelenskyy was fighting a much bigger entity, much bigger, much more powerful,” Trump said. “He shouldn’t have done that, because we could have made a deal.” Trump has taken a markedly different approach, saying in the Fox News interview that Zelenskyy is "no angel," adding that he "shouldn't have allowed this war to happen."
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/wh...sts-ukraine-not-fought-back-russia-rcna189071

Ukraine is the aggressor because the bigger, powerful state should just get what they desire. Somehow he's an imperialist and Chamberlin all in the same speech.
 
Different day, different world salad. Feels like whatever he had planned for Ukraine has gone out the window and he doesn't have a clue what to do now. Good news if so.
 
https://ukrainianweek.com/waiting-i...-held-his-position-near-pokrovsk-for-22-days/

Interesting interview with a soldier of a small unit who was tasked with manning a house on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on observation duty. Gives some insight into how both sides operate and how things are being fought over in these small settlements and villages across the frontline. And just how close the margins are in this type of combat.

For the first few days, the enemy had no idea there was an observation post right under their noses. That gave us some time to prepare and keep a low profile. We reported enemy infantry movements over the radio, and our drones would take care of them. We didn’t see any equipment, only heard it, and reported that as well. But as the number of Russians grew, they started getting much closer, even trying to peek into the house. Usually in groups of two or three. That’s when we had to open fire. If the enemy is only five metres from your window, you don’t hesitate to take the shot.
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All three were killed together on 7 November last year by a Russian attack in a war that has devoured Ukraine since 2022 – but which no longer dominates the international agenda.
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Relentless, 4th largest refinery in Russia, 800km from Ukraine. Other strikes ongoing elsewhere.

 
This scumbag was jailed for speaking uncomfortable truths. He's still at it and apparently someone is helping him get his message out.

 
Slavoj Zizek: It’s incredible to me how many pseudo-leftists are drawn to this strange fascination with Russia. Even though they admit that Putin is horrible, they still cling to the idea that Russia, somehow being less affected by Western consumerism, somehow preserves more “authentic” human relationships. For example, an idiot once told me that while the West is all about promiscuity and sexual freedoms, in Russia, “true love” is still possible. This romanticized notion of Russia is often combined with another leftist dogma: that NATO is the ultimate evil. According to this view, anyone in conflict with NATO must have something good or virtuous about them. By this logic, Ukraine is disqualified from support because it’s seen as merely fighting a “proxy war” on behalf of NATO.
It worries me that they treat Ukrainians as some kind of idiots — they falsify the choice that Ukrainians face. This oversimplification completely ignores reality. For Ukrainians, the choice isn’t between peace and war — it’s between resisting or disappearing as a nation. The Russians have made that abundantly clear.
When people say, "We should stop supporting Ukraine and push for negotiations with Russia," I respond, "Maybe — but that decision should ultimately be up to the Ukrainians." However, are they aware that Ukraine's current strength to negotiate, if it exists, is entirely due to its resistance? Without Western support, Ukraine would never have reached a position where negotiations are even possible. This is absolutely clear.
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https://kyivindependent.com/slavoj-...t-of-a-longstanding-trend-in-russian-history/

wow didn't realise Zizek read the Caf :)
 
18 year old British volunteer dies in Ukraine, on his first mission. It was actually back in July last year so maybe it has been reported somewhere else before. He was killed by a drone while crossing an open field to resupply other soldiers in a nearby trench.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33154476/brit-james-wilton-killed-russian-drone-ukraine/

BRITISH teen volunteer James Wilton “did not stand a chance” when he was killed by a Russian drone while fighting in Ukraine, his best pal said.

The 18-year-old recruit died after being chased by three of the killing machines.

James had flown from Manchester four months earlier aged just 17 to join the resistance against the Russian invasion despite having no previous military experience.
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“I was the last man in the group. I was telling him to stay 20 metres ahead of me. I could see he was scared and I was scared too, but I told him he was going to be OK.

“We had heavy, 60 kilo packs. When we reached halfway across the field he suddenly stopped.

“I shouted after him ‘Why are you stopping, what are you doing?’ and he didn’t respond.

“Then I heard it — a buzz in the air above us — and thought: ‘Oh f***.’ It took me two or three seconds to spot it, then I saw it and realised we were in the worst possible situation we could be in — in an open field with nowhere to run.

“I screamed at him: ‘We need to move, we need to move!’ Then the drone moved and began hovering 20 metres above me.

“I could tell it was a ‘drop drone’ armed with a bomb and its pilot was trying to decide who to kill — me or James.

“He wanted us closer together so he could kill both of us with one bomb. Then another drone appeared. I told him I was going to start shooting then he turned and said: ‘I’m going to run.’

“We both started sprinting with two drones on top of us — then a third one appeared.

“Once the drone was on him, James never stood a chance.

“He was only about 30 metres from the trench line when I saw the drone explode.
 
Russian missile kills five, wounds over 50 in Ukrainian town of Izium
A Russian strike killed five civilians and wounded 55 on Tuesday in the town of Izium in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region, partially destroying the city council building, officials said.
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Three children were among the injured, who also included many local government and social services workers, he said.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...r-injures-20-ukrainian-town-izium-2025-02-04/
 
So, Musk is asking for minerals and mining rights, for continued support.

Yes, technically it was Trump, but surely, that can't be a coincidence.

After all, didn't Musk back a coup in Bolivia, for the very same reason, few years back?
 
Morty_ said:
So, Musk is asking for minerals and mining rights, for continued support.

Yes, technically it was Trump, but surely, that can't be a coincidence.

After all, didn't Musk back a coup in Bolivia, for the very same reason, few years back?
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Errr no.

The deal for minerals and rare earth metals was initiated by Biden and ratification was delayed by Zelenskyy as to have leverage with trump.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Errr no.

The deal for minerals and rare earth metals was initiated by Biden and ratification was delayed by Zelenskyy as to have leverage with trump.
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Oh, really?

Thanks for letting me know.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Errr no.

The deal for minerals and rare earth metals was initiated by Biden and ratification was delayed by Zelenskyy as to have leverage with trump.
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Thing is, there are no rare earth metals in Ukraine. Trump is using this term incorrectly, feck knows if he means “critical minerals” like lithium and titanium, but the US has large reserves and deposits of every mineral Ukraine could offer. So it’s a bit absurd, but “rare earth metals” is a good catchprase and every ignorant immediately recognizes we’re talking scarce resources, so I’m pretty sure he’ll announce he indeed secured an access to those, even if he didn’t.
 
Red Star One said:
Thing is, there are no rare earth metals in Ukraine. Trump is using this term incorrectly, feck knows if he means “critical minerals” like lithium and titanium, but the US has large reserves and deposits of every mineral Ukraine could offer. So it’s a bit absurd, but “rare earth metals” is a good catchprase and every ignorant immediately recognizes we’re talking scarce resources, so I’m pretty sure he’ll announce he indeed secured an access to those, even if he didn’t.
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That’s great and all, but Biden administration used the exact same term.

https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-delayed-minerals-deal-with-us-to-let-trump-take-credit-nyt-reports/
 
Red Star One said:
Thing is, there are no rare earth metals in Ukraine. Trump is using this term incorrectly, feck knows if he means “critical minerals” like lithium and titanium, but the US has large reserves and deposits of every mineral Ukraine could offer. So it’s a bit absurd, but “rare earth metals” is a good catchprase and every ignorant immediately recognizes we’re talking scarce resources, so I’m pretty sure he’ll announce he indeed secured an access to those, even if he didn’t.
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For context: This is the exact statement (pre US election) back in August:

WASHINGTON. Aug 13 (Interfax) - Kiev stands ready to sign a large-scale agreement on rare earth minerals with the United States, U.S. Senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham said in a joint statement following their visit to Ukraine.

"President Zelensky was excited about and was committed to obtaining a strategic agreement with the U.S. regarding the more than a trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine" and expressed a commitment to form a working group to put this plan into practice, the senators said.

"Expanding economic cooperation with Ukraine makes America stronger and accelerates Ukraine's economic recovery," they said. Ukraine is rich in lithium, titanium and other rare earth minerals that are needed by the U.S. economy, they said.

"An agreement with Ukraine in this area would make the U.S. less dependent on foreign adversaries for rare earth minerals," Blumenthal and Graham said.

"Now is the time to form a strategic partnership with Ukraine that can have tremendous economic benefits to the United States and lead to stability in Europe," they said.
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AfonsoAlves said:
For context: This is the exact statement (pre US election) back in August:
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Fair enough! So it's not only Trump's administration that uses this term incorrectly, as I mentioned - 'rare-earth metals' is a cool catchphrase but it means a specific group of elements that are not mined at all in Ukraine - at least for the time being. For the moment Ukraine produces a total 0 of rare-earth elements and while there are analysis suggesting they might have some reserves of a couple of those metals, feck knows if Americans meant using those reserves and actually mining rare-earth elements in Ukraine, or they actually just meant lithium and titanium. Rare-earth metals, critical minerals - they use these buzzwords interchangeably even if they mean completely different things
 
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