Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

.
Raoul said:
I think its inevitable at this point, unless of course NATO are ok with standing by with a genocide in Europe.

(Disclaimer: Genocide is genocide wherever it takes place, but far more conspicuous when it takes place next door).
Click to expand...

It's not inevitable. Moreover, genocide aims to totally destroy a nation or group. Putin will never be able to achieve that aim, even if he kills many tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

I repeat, Putin is losing this war. The most essential thing, barring an attack on a NATO country, is preventing this defeat of the Russian military from turning into a nuclear WWIII.
 
Rightnr said:
I'd like to understand the thinking of 'soldiers' who shoot at children. Absolutely disgusting and no excuses.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
 
It's a rotten comparison, but Kyiv could be like Ukraine's very own battle of Stalingrad - it's heavily fortified, the civilians have been armed and they will fight to the death to stop Russia. Could be either a complete disaster for the Russians, or a very, very bloody Russian victory at the cost of huge collateral damage to the city and remaining population.
 
Oly Francis said:
I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
Click to expand...

Here's the excerpt, but I cannot vouch for the translation from the Russian:



" The SBU intercepted conversations between the occupiers: in Kharkiv they were ordered to shoot at civilians The Russian army is throwing more and more forces into the encirclement of the city, but it does not give the desired results, and the losses of the occupiers are incomparable. We continue to collect facts of Russian war crimes. "
 
Oly Francis said:
I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
Click to expand...

Yes, I've said this from the beginning - just because we're on Ukraine's team, doesn't mean we can't call out misinformation from either side. Not saying this is specifically misinformation, but I agree with your general point.
 
Rajma said:
Many Ukrainian football teams have their preseason done in Turkey around this time.
Click to expand...
But surely they're not thinking of going back now? I'm wondering if they got stranded here.
 
TMDaines said:
Click to expand...


The war ending in Putin getting Dombas as a negociation prize was the most likely theory since day one unfortunately. I still think it is. Now lets see how far west he goes. In my opinion, the question is probably more about Russia installing a pro-Russia governement in Ukraine if they take Kyiv.
 
The Firestarter said:
Can they counterattack though, they will need new hardware for that.
Click to expand...

It's a matter of waiting for the perfect moment until the Russians trap themselves in a vulnerable area where they can be picked off by surrounding Ukrainians. That is how the French lost the Indochina War at Dien Bien Phu.
 
Raoul said:
That wouldn't stop Putin though. The only thing that will stop him is trouble inside Russia through an uprising or coup and/or the US getting militarily involved. His calculus so far has been "I can do what I want because I have nukes and you wouldn't dare attempt to stop me". The US needs to do the same to him by taking some sort of provocative military action that ignores Putin and seeks to protect Ukrainians. Put the pressure on Putin to respond to that at at time when he's losing the war in Ukraine and in danger of crushing pressure back home.
Click to expand...
I agree, sacrificing Ukraine shouldn't be an option.
 
TMDaines said:
Click to expand...


Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think western leaders like Putin much right now and would prefer for him to go down. Only way is if he completely loses in Ukraine. So if sanctions keep piling up, with hostile population in controlled area, after enough time, I can see Russian front completely and utterly collapsing. Even now, based on certain estimates about the rate of their loses suggest they might be spent soon. Of course those estimates could be too optimistic. But how long the Russians can keep going before they collapse.

Of course the scenario in the tweet is also quite likely. If there is one thing I don't trust politicians is to support the right side when it gets tough. But that's a cynical take and I'm really trying to be optimist here, that eventually Ukraine will prevail.
 
Raoul said:
That wouldn't stop Putin though. The only thing that will stop him is trouble inside Russia through an uprising or coup and/or the US getting militarily involved. His calculus so far has been "I can do what I want because I have nukes and you wouldn't dare attempt to stop me". The US needs to do the same to him by taking some sort of provocative military action that ignores Putin and seeks to protect Ukrainians. Put the pressure on Putin to respond to that at at time when he's losing the war in Ukraine and in danger of crushing pressure back home.
Click to expand...

I don't know. If the US takes a provocative action, Putin just might be able to turn it from a unpopular aggressive war against a brotherly nation to a popular defensive war against US. Him claiming: "See, I was right all the time, this is all orchestrated by USA to destroy us".

I wouldn't be surprised that that's one of the reasons the US doesn't want to get more involved. Perhaps, they see their passive involvement (as opposed to active) as the best way to take Putin down.
 
Israelis denying the earlier “surrender” reports:



 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
It's a matter of waiting for the perfect moment until the Russians trap themselves in a vulnerable area where they can be picked off by surrounding Ukrainians. That is how the French lost the Indochina War at Dien Bien Phu.
Click to expand...
The French were outnumbered 5 to 1 and more at Dien Bien Phu, and had no idea of the artillery the Viet Minh possessed. Although they were arrogant and stupid so I suppose there is a comparison there.
 
TMDaines said:
Click to expand...


In the long run, Russia will never be able to hold onto newly occupied territory. Their military and economy will emerge much weakened from this war. Their days of being able to commit large numbers of troops to quell uprisings in Kazakhstan, or elsewhere, will be long gone.

Essentially, a policy based mainly on the oppression of freedom is doomed to eventually fail.
 
Jotun said:
Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think western leaders like Putin much right now and would prefer for him to go down. Only way is if he completely loses in Ukraine. So if sanctions keep piling up, with hostile population in controlled area, after enough time, I can see Russian front completely and utterly collapsing. Even now, based on certain estimates about the rate of their loses suggest they might be spent soon. Of course those estimates could be too optimistic. But how long the Russians can keep going before they collapse.

Of course the scenario in the tweet is also quite likely. If there is one thing I don't trust politicians is to support the right side when it gets tough. But that's a cynical take and I'm really trying to be optimist here, that eventually Ukraine will prevail.
Click to expand...
My fear going back about 10 days now, once we saw the underwhelming Russian army, was that Russia didn’t need to advance too much and that they would have the option of turtling and just occupying more lands. I presume the West would keep the sanctions up if this was the case though. Settling for Ukraine ending up in such a rump form would be a dire outcome.
 
TMDaines said:
My fear going back about 10 days now, once we saw the underwhelming Russian army, was that Russia didn’t need to advance too much and that they would have the option of turtling and just occupying more lands. I presume the West would keep the sanctions up if this was the case though. Settling for Ukraine ending up in such a rump form would be a dire outcome.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but these will be hostile lands they will be occupying. How long will they be able to keep it up? As long as the west keeps the sanctions, I'm convinced in conventual war, Ukraine will win and eventually liberate everything but Crimea. Presuming the Ukrainians want to fight that long. Such a war, might take months or years. We (the west) must not allow Putin to gain anything from this war. Or at least support Ukrainians for as long as they want it and even longer.
 
Jotun said:
Yeah, but these will be hostile lands they will be occupying. How long will they be able to keep it up? As long as the west keeps the sanctions, I'm convinced in conventual war, Ukraine will win and eventually liberate everything but Crimea. Presuming the Ukrainians want to fight that long. Such a war, might take months or years. We (the west) must not allow Putin to gain anything from this war. Or at least support Ukrainians for as long as they want it and even longer.
Click to expand...

This seems the most realistic 'win', but the west will need to keep the support up in every way possible, and at best it will take generations for Ukraine to recover in any way. As usual it's just so fecking sad and unjust.
 
Jotun said:
I don't know. If the US takes a provocative action, Putin just might be able to turn it from a unpopular aggressive war against a brotherly nation to a popular defensive war against US. Him claiming: "See, I was right all the time, this is all orchestrated by USA to destroy us".

I wouldn't be surprised that that's one of the reasons the US doesn't want to get more involved. Perhaps, they see their passive involvement (as opposed to active) as the best way to take Putin down.
Click to expand...

Trouble is, Putin is operating without any restrictions which will allow him to do whatever he wants in Ukraine, and if that's allowed, there's nothing that will disincentivize him from going beyond Ukraine. There has to therefore be a strong line of demarcation that will result in NATO taking action before he completely decimates Ukraine and its population with chemical weapons, thermobarics, false flags involving some sort of WMD, or just general incompetence that results in a nuclear reactor spewing radiation across Europe. Biden and NATO are playing this a bit too safe at the moment, which is actually incentivizing Putin to be more brutal within Ukraine, because he suspects those watching him don't have the courage to stop him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.