Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
I can't read the article. Any specifics?
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Here's the text. I had to separate the paragraphs again.

Biden warns Russia would pay ‘severe price’ for using chemical weapons in Ukraine

President’s comments follow US officials saying Moscow could resort to biological warfare

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Joe Biden has warned that Russia would pay a “severe price” if it used chemical weapons during its war on Ukraine, although he declined to specify the nature of any US response.

US officials have said in recent days that Russia might resort to the use of chemical weapons after first setting up a pretext by deploying them in a “false flag” operation and blaming it on Ukraine.

The US president was asked on Friday by a reporter if the US would respond militarily to the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, but Biden did not say whether America’s reaction would be of a military or economic nature.

“I’m not going to speak about the intelligence. But Russia would pay a severe price if they use chemical weapons,” he said.

Biden has repeatedly said that the US would not be drawn into a direct conflict with Russia over Ukraine, ruling out sending American troops to defend the country, or enforcing a no-fly zone with US pilots and fighter jets.

But it is unclear if that calculation might change should Russia’s tactics become even more brutal, such as through the use of weapons of mass destruction.

During a press briefing on Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki suggested that the US position that it would not become directly engaged in war with Russia had not shifted.

“We are conveying to all of you what the capacity and the capabilities of Russia are, what steps they have taken in the past [with chemical weapons]. Let’s hope we are not having a discussion about that,” Psaki said.

“But the President and our Nato partners have not changed their assessment about their plans to send US troops in,” she added.

A senior US defence official said on Friday that the “Russians have had, and we assess that they still have, a sophisticated chemical and biological weapons program”.

But the official declined to provide details about any potential Russian plans to use chemical weapons in Ukraine, saying he would not discuss US intelligence assessments.

However, the official said the administration had decided to talk about the issue publicly after Russia claimed without evidence that the US had helped Ukraine develop a biological and chemical weapons programme.

“We’re talking about it because they are lying about it,” the official added.

Biden’s comments came as Vasily Nebenzya, the Russian representative to the UN, accused the US and Ukraine of hatching a plot to spread biological weapons and “dangerous pathogens” throughout Europe with birds, bats and insects.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US ambassador to the UN, rebuffed the claim, which was made during a session of the UN Security Council on Friday. “The intent behind these lies seems clear and it is deeply troubling,” said Thomas-Greenfield. “We believe Russia could use chemical or biological agents for assassinations as part of a false flag incident or to support tactical military operations.”
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Putin and Russia are just fecking terrorists and they’re just doing what they want. Disgusting the attacks on civilians and civilian building.

Basically begging for Syrian mercenaries too, absolute cnut.
 
Smithy89 said:
Putin and Russia are just fecking terrorists and they’re just doing what they want. Disgusting the attacks on civilians and civilian building.
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I hope this war is the beginning of the end of him and his totalitarian regime.
 
TMDaines said:
And right on time from Bennett is an example of how easy it is to show support for “peace” to prevail and say “no war” when you are not the ones morally in the right fighting for everything you’ve got, being expected to surrender it all.
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I'm pretty sure that Israeli politicians have made exactly the same argument in the past, adding to the irony.
 
Frosty said:
I'm pretty sure that Israeli politicians have made exactly the same argument in the past, adding to the irony.
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It is pretty on brand for an Israeli politician to want the victim to concede to the oppressor though.
 
GlastonSpur said:
BBC: "Ukraine's state Centre for Strategic Communications has warned that it cannot rule out the possibility that Belarus could join the Russian invasion in the coming hours.

The warning comes after a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko"

Lushenko should be quietly taken aside for a one-to-one chat by a Russian-speaking "someone" from foreign embassy and told that if his military joins the war then his remaining time alive on this Earth will be numbered in days. I doubt he's anywhere near as well-protected as Putin. And the threat may deter him.
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I mean if he says no to putin his time left on earth will be measured in hours so I'm not sure that chats gonna work
 
Ayoba said:
It was all getting a bit too much for me so i've avoided the news for a couple of days (I know this pales in comparison to what Ukrainians are going through!). Is there any hope of a ceasefire from the discussions between the 2 countries or are we likely to see Russia take over Kyiv soon?
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No realistic sign of a ceasefire coming up soon but there is also very little chance of Russia ever taking over Kyiv now.

TwoSheds said:
Feels a bit like the Russian forces are slowly getting their shit together and things are getting more ominous for Ukraine. Is that a fair assessment or are we just seeing fewer reported victories from the Ukrainians because they're busy and people are less excited by the reports now?
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There a fewer Russian offensives going on now, so if "getting their shit together" means they have finally learned from their losses then yes its a fair assessment. The only ground they have made lately is when they decide to advance down an undefended road before getting walloped when they find some resistance.

hellhunter said:
Does anyone know how many troops Ukraine had before the war?

We always hear the Russian numbers, but they're hard to put into context if you don't know what they're up against
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"Following hostilities with Russia in 2014, Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants), not counting additional forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service".
 
From The Guardian:

One of the unanswered questions in Russia’s war against Ukraine is the level of attrition being experienced by the Ukrainian military. Now it appears a US defence official may have given some idea.

According to the unnamed official, the Ukraine air force has around 56 fighters left after almost three weeks of combat.

While Ukraine started the war with just under 100 combat aircraft, a simple subtraction may not tell the whole story with some of those aircraft likely out of service for one reason or another, with maintenance issue being a historic problem for Kyiv.

Even so that would seem to suggest, at first glance, not insignificant loses even if the remaining numbers of aircraft indicate that Russia’s early claim to have “neutralised” Ukraine air force and air defences was wide of the mark.

It would also go some way to explaining the renewed effort to hit Ukraine’s airfields in recent days.
 
TwoSheds said:
Feels a bit like the Russian forces are slowly getting their shit together and things are getting more ominous for Ukraine. Is that a fair assessment or are we just seeing fewer reported victories from the Ukrainians because they're busy and people are less excited by the reports now?
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It's as I told @Sir Matt earlier and posted on this group. Russia was never struggling in terms of military might. I think the reports of losses are exaggerated to sell as feel good stories to change public sentiment maybe, to which I'm all far. Maybe it discourages the Russians, but they were always going to get Kiev.

The sanctions is what will really drive them insane and push them back.
 
shamans said:
It's as I told @Sir Matt earlier and posted on this group. Russia was never struggling in terms of military might. I think the reports of losses are exaggerated to sell as feel good stories to change public sentiment maybe, to which I'm all far. Maybe it discourages the Russians, but they were always going to get Kiev.

The sanctions is what will really drive them insane and push them back.
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Russia may have numbers but their maintenance and logistics is terrible, to the point it doesn't even matter how many men or weapons you have. And if Russia was so overpowering, they wouldn't be asking Belarus, Mercenary groups and the Chechens/other states to provide man power. This is definitely making Russia look weak on a global stage. They don't even have air superiority yet despite having a much larger airforce
 
Mogget said:
It is pretty on brand for an Israeli politician to want the victim to concede to the oppressor though.
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You'll find certain vocal people in here making the same point for Palestine to concede as well. Won't say anymore because they'll get the hump and delete the comment as whataboutery.
 
Frosty said:
From The Guardian:

One of the unanswered questions in Russia’s war against Ukraine is the level of attrition being experienced by the Ukrainian military. Now it appears a US defence official may have given some idea.

According to the unnamed official, the Ukraine air force has around 56 fighters left after almost three weeks of combat.

While Ukraine started the war with just under 100 combat aircraft, a simple subtraction may not tell the whole story with some of those aircraft likely out of service for one reason or another, with maintenance issue being a historic problem for Kyiv.

Even so that would seem to suggest, at first glance, not insignificant loses even if the remaining numbers of aircraft indicate that Russia’s early claim to have “neutralised” Ukraine air force and air defences was wide of the mark.

It would also go some way to explaining the renewed effort to hit Ukraine’s airfields in recent days.
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If Ukraine ends up losing control because nobody can find the collective courage to supply aircraft to the country, it will be a real embarrassment.
 
Frosty said:
It would also go some way to explaining the renewed effort to hit Ukraine’s airfields in recent days.
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I'm sure that Saab are salivating at the prospect of selling their jets to Ukraine in the future. The Gripen, which is also used by the Czech Air Force, was designed in a way that it can take off from snow-covered landing strips or roads of only 800 metres (2,600 ft) long in a scenario of defensive force dispersal of combat aircraft. I wish Ukraine had those right now because it would fit their ability to disperse their existing forces on the ground.

golden_blunder said:
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2022/0311/1285835-zagreb-croatia/

Russian or Ukrainian drone crashes in Croatia
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What was it doing there in the first place?
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I'm sure that Saab are salivating at the prospect of selling their jets to Ukraine in the future. The Gripen, which is also used by the Czech Air Force, was designed in a way that it can take off from snow-covered landing strips or roads of only 800 metres (2,600 ft) long in a scenario of defensive force dispersal of combat aircraft. I wish Ukraine had those right now because it would fit their ability to disperse their existing forces on the ground.



What was it doing there in the first place?
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Honestly my gut feeling is that Russia are going to be up to all sorts of dirty tactics to goad US and/or NATO to see how far they will go
 
hellhunter said:
It certainly looks that way, although I'm not sure what Moscow would gain from that
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Maybe they have a plan up their sleeves involving backup from China (who want to make a play on Taiwan asap) and North Korea (itching to fire their missiles). I feel like war is stirring and it’s not coming from nato and the US
 
golden_blunder said:
Honestly my gut feeling is that Russia are going to be up to all sorts of dirty tactics to goad US and/or NATO to see how far they will go
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I think the red line will be chemical/biological weapons. I think once a war escalated to that they won’t be able to simply watch on and hide behind Article 5 any longer.
 
golden_blunder said:
Maybe they have a plan up their sleeves involving backup from China (who want to make a play on Taiwan asap) and North Korea (itching to fire their missiles). I feel like war is stirring and it’s not coming from nato and the US
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The Russians don't want Moscow to be wiped off the map, so I doubt they'll want to escalate this with NATO.
 
VorZakone said:
The Russians don't want Moscow to be wiped off the map, so I doubt they'll want to escalate this with NATO.
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You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
What was it doing there in the first place?
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It's possible someone made a really stupid mistake while setting the coordinates for the mission. It crashed as mentioned in the article near Jarun. There is also a village called Yarun in Ukraine (halfway between Kiyv and Riwne).
 
golden_blunder said:
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve
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Without nuke options, they are toasted in a war against NATO. If he wants to go nuclear, he doesn’t need an excuse.

So, I don’t think so.
 
Raoul said:
Russian ships leaving the Odessa area would be significant news. They could of course still attack by land.
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Yeh the land route is through Mikolaiv, hence the focus there. Resorting to heavy bombardment now after multiple assaults have been repelled quite easily it seems.
 
sun_tzu said:
I mean if he says no to putin his time left on earth will be measured in hours so I'm not sure that chats gonna work
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Not really. The sudden death of Lukashenko would only embolden internal opposition forces inside his country. Putin wouldn't want that.
 
golden_blunder said:
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve
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What though?

Nuclear is the big bluff, at least we hope it's a bluff, but what else could Russia or China offer? No chance there's some secret weapon unknown about in this day and age, and in direct conflict with Nato they would be battered. China don't want to be a part of this, it's why they remain seemingly on the fence, they know Putin has fecked this and they know the Russian army are stuck in the past. It's way more likely that those supporting Russia are playing the "I'm not involved" game hoping Putin has a plan but deep down knowing the world has to move on once this has been resolved one way or the other.
 
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