Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I didn't say their hands were clean, in a greater sense, but when it comes to Russia deciding to invade Ukraine, then no that's not the fault of the US. That is solely the fault of Russia.
Agreed. There’s quite a bit of analysis and writing, especially from the older generation, that treats this as a game of Twilight Struggle.
 
Can some economics genius explain to me why the Ruble has strengthened almost 30% over the last four days? Sorry if this has been discussed already.

The Russian central bank is probably propping it up with whatever resources it has. It's been on a downward slide in general but every morning it gains a huge chunk, probably due to the RCB intervention

It will take a while for the bank to go through the $300 million of reserves it still has, as well as some time for the economic sanctions to really kick in hard.
 
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Can't we at least airlift some food, medicine and water to Mariupol in a Red Cross helicopter? Happy to let the Russians check the cargo first before flying in.

The people there need help and they can't evacuate because the Russians keep on shelling the evac routes.

That's kind of the point. They don't want the people getting food, medicine and water, they want them to suffer and give up resistance. They're not going to let aid get in or people get out.

What is this stuff about Putin inviting middle Eastern fighters a free passage to come fight in Europe?

Ukraine said about 16,000 foreign fighters were helping them.

Hey presto, Putin says 16,000 are welcome to come and help the Russians.
 
That's kind of the point. They don't want the people getting food, medicine and water, they want them to suffer and give up resistance. They're not going to let aid get in or people get out.

That's really quite awful and I hope Putin suffers the worst kind of cancer very soon.
 
That's really quite awful and I hope Putin suffers the worst kind of cancer very soon.

He will kill as many people as necessary to win. The only question is whether winning is so important to him that he would risk suicide to not be perceived as a loser.
 
Lots of noise from Ukrainian authorities in recent hours that Russian planes are firing at Belarusian territory from Ukrainian airspace to try and escalate things:

 
He wont care. The ex Oligarch that Putin locked up for 10 years said think of Putin like a mob boss or the main gang leader in a prison. They have a different mindset and the basis is to never show weakness or you will be taken out. As far as Putin sees it backing down is not an option.

Tend to agree with you, Putin is nearing the end of his 'day in the sun' running the country and wants to go down in Russian folk history as the man who restored the Russian Bear's image. The 'macho' image of himself that he has cultivated says it all. He is dangerous for everyone, not just Ukraine, but Russia and the rest of the world. If the Ukraine can fight him to a standstill and they may yet do that, even if they have to concede large tracts of the country, then NATO has to be ready to move in immediately to prove to the world that this type of behaviour will not be tolerated and ironically the thing Putin apparently feared most will have happened, NATO is now really on his doorstep.
 
People calling for a no fly zone should pay heed to this. Although I don’t think 4000 nukes in total would be launched, any nuclear exchange would still be a total global catastrophe.

 
The Russian central bank is probably propping it up with whatever resources it has. It's been on a downward slide in general but every morning it gains a huge chunk, probably due to the RCB intervention

It will take a while for the bank to go through the $300 million of reserves it still has, as well as some time for the economic sanctions to really kick in hard.
sounds like in the meantime we've just destroyed our own economies then
 
sounds like in the meantime we've just destroyed our own economies then

Of course. Sanctions are going to hit us as well. It's just that it hits Russia 10 times as hard.

Well we won't be 'destroyed', but fuel and food is sure gonna get expensive.

Which is why it can be argued that NATO ending this quickly is good for everyone in a sense. Otherwise, in a few months time everyone will be poor, Ukraine will be rubble, and Putin may still be mad enough to start nuclear war anyway.
 
Of course. Sanctions are going to hit us as well. It's just that it hits Russia 10 times as hard.

Well we won't be 'destroyed', but fuel and food is sure gonna get expensive.
have you seen the british gas bills running into the thousands going round? People are going to be absolutely destroyed. it'll be a global recession that makes 08 look like a dwarf
 
have you seen the british gas bills running into the thousands going round? People are going to be absolutely destroyed. it'll be a global recession that makes 08 look like a dwarf

I know. Luckily, we are going into summer and people can start turning their heating off. That's the only bit of silver lining.
 
It's all NATO's fault, they're so seductive with their big juicy AWACS rotodomes and long hard Paladin howitzers. How could any country resist?

Are those the ones they left for the Taliban or different?
 
So, a democratic sovereign state can't decide it's own future because a mad wanker like Putin doesn't like it? Gotcha.

Cuba couldn’t either because a mad wanker named JFK was going to start a nuclear war over it.
 
I just don't understand it man. It doesn't seem to be having the slightest impact on the military situation so it feels like we've gutted ourselves for the sake of doing nothing

We're not doing nothing man. We are draining the Russian Central Bank of their remaining reserves, as well as severely limiting new money that can enter Russia. It's just that it takes time for economic effects to kick in. Russia still has plenty of food, fuel and materials already inside the country even though they are not receiving new shipments.

It's just whether Ukraine can hold out for the length of time that is needed to drain the RCB. If chemical or biological weapons enter the fray, probably not.
 


I highly recommend a listen to this. One of the best parts is the discussion about the miscalculation by Putin will have consequences for all potential future conflicts and tensions. Ukraine putting up such a resistance has opened up the possibility of smaller but technologically adapted states to potentially feel confident pushing back on aggressors and push diplomatic boundaries against superpowers/regional powers.


I listened to this earlier. Great stuff. Subscribed.
 
you literally just responded to him with a derisive assumption about his views and now you're mad about his response back
I summarised his 'position' and he tried to imply I base my views on the Sun. As for his 'views', all very easy to preach peace when you are in the right country.
 
I listened to this earlier. Great stuff. Subscribed.

I have no time to listen to the podcast right now but based on the short summary, I've been thinking about this, too, since there has been much talk about the way this plays out for Russia might deter China from invading Taiwan. That basically implies Russia entered unknown territory by invading Ukraine since it is the first war in which modern military technology is used by attacker and defender alike, at least on a larger scale. Modern warfare might benefit defenders to a vastly greater degree than aggressors. I wasn't particularly interested in military stuff prior to this conflict so I don't know if that's been a theory before but if it was then chances are it's never been tested. It would generally be a very welcome development I suppose since it makes wars of conquest much less profitable for superior powers unless they use weaponry that go against there purposes (mass destruction that will spark fierce resistance, political isolation, domestic protests and on top leaves nothing to conquer).
 
I summarised his 'position' and he tried to imply I base my views on the Sun. As for his 'views', all very easy to preach peace when you are in the right country.

The Americans turned up in my country trying to get us to fight the Chinese over the SCS dispute. We politely told them to fk off we would deal with it by negotiation. It’s not easy being on the border of a super power you need to be smart and staying neutral is better than getting wrecked.
 
The Russian central bank is probably propping it up with whatever resources it has. It's been on a downward slide in general but every morning it gains a huge chunk, probably due to the RCB intervention

It will take a while for the bank to go through the $300 million of reserves it still has, as well as some time for the economic sanctions to really kick in hard.
Ah, cheers!
 
Aside from all the tragedy happening to Ukraine, personally, it will be interesting to see where Putin would be in a few months or years. Would be too hopeful that he won't be in a position to influence too much on our coup leader who paid a shit load of money to get their shit equipment to kill own citizens at home? Or probably more cheap weapons to kill more...
 
I have no time to listen to the podcast right now but based on the short summary, I've been thinking about this, too, since there has been much talk about the way this plays out for Russia might deter China from invading Taiwan. That basically implies Russia entered unknown territory by invading Ukraine since it is the first war in which modern military technology is used by attacker and defender alike, at least on a larger scale. Modern warfare might benefit defenders to a vastly greater degree than aggressors. I wasn't particularly interested in military stuff prior to this conflict so I don't know if that's been a theory before but if it was then chances are it's never been tested. It would generally be a very welcome development I suppose since it makes wars of conquest much less profitable for superior powers unless they use weaponry that go against there purposes (mass destruction that will spark fierce resistance, political isolation, domestic protests and on top leaves nothing to conquer).

I have to say, being from Ireland and the history we have here with the English. They invaded and still have the north but the native population would never let them “enjoy“ it. These things are never settled. You might win a battle and take a city but you’re always under constant threat of losing it back. It’s a major resource drain. Many citizens are against war. It’s not like in the past where you expected to totally pillage and clean a weaker country out for the good of the aggressive nation anymore either. There actually seems to be a lot more cons than pros these days.
 
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I'm going to be generous and assume that this isn't actually a call for all countries to have the perceived "right" to wreck others.


Periodically someone new pops in to re-litigate what has already been done to death in the weeks ahead of the invasion. Unless you're calling my hot takes terrible, in which case I denounce your imperialist language!
I wasn't talking about you, no :D
 


I highly recommend a listen to this. One of the best parts is the discussion about the miscalculation by Putin will have consequences for all potential future conflicts and tensions. Ukraine putting up such a resistance has opened up the possibility of smaller but technologically adapted states to potentially feel confident pushing back on aggressors and push diplomatic boundaries against superpowers/regional powers.

Ok so I’m gonna listen to this podcast, but also… had no clue you could embed like that from Spotify on here.