Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Well I’m glad your desire for a hastened full blooded global nuclear conflict is for altruistic reasons

Where have I EVER said I wanted it? I’ve only ever said I see it as an inevitability, one that breaks my ticking heart!
 
But what you or I believe is a certainty is just gut feeling or guess work, whereas a new World War would be exactly that. The number of deaths in Ukraine wouldn't compare to the millions lost in another world war.

I get it, though, it's the feeling that we're not doing something that's gut wrenching. But we are. People look at sanctions and think they're a little soft but it's bringing Russia's economy to the brink of collapse. It doesn't bring the dead back to life, but nothing will.

Millions is a massive understatement. Even if it doesn't turn nuclear, we're looking at tens of millions at least. If it goes nuclear, we're looking at billions, and the very likely end of modern human civilization.
 
Thinking about the drone, now it actually makes sense it went as far as Croatia. If it lost communication and went into autopilot, it makes sense it was flying west trying to re-establish communication. The furthest west it flew, the highest the possibility it will not fall into Russian hands, which is a priority for this war I guess.

I have no idea what actually happened. My guess is it has something to do with the programming of the drone autopilot. These are not problems that a military aircraft can have, they are problems unique to unmanned aircraft.
 
WW3 is a nuclear war, it's not inevitable (and I say this as someone who lived thru the Cold War) and the casualties there could be in the high hundreds of millions.

How does this then get resolved? Without a domestic tooling of Putin what other direction does this go in?
 
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-planning-chernobyl-attack-ukraine/

Erm, what in the name of holy feck is this?!?!?!

This was something I discussed with friends. Biden and everyone is so adamant that they won't interfere while the war is 'limited' to Ukraine - what happens if they do something at Chernobyl or another plant? What happens is (worst case hypothetical scenario) he was to drop a nuke in Ukraine? Surely they couldn't still sit by and let it continue?

Every expert I've read doesn't seem concerned by Chernobyl including that article:

"But, the International Atomic Energy Agency said a loss of power at Chernobyl "does not have any critical impact" on wider safety. They state there is "sufficient" cooling water for any excess nuclear fuel."

I'm going to go with the experts, but if they did go for another plant that's obviously where the West would get involved. I suspect if they do something, it'll be at Chernobyl because they can do it without a meltdown but still get the West worried.
 
I get your argument and I’ll accept I misjudged the use of the term hiding.

My side of seeing things though is that WW3 has already begun. Barring a domestic toppling of Putin I just can’t see any way of this being resolved without (a) Ukraine being absolutely decimated and/or (b) NATO forces being drawn into it and escalating into a full World War.

I believe it’s an inevitability (I hope to Christ I’m proven wrong) but part of me, as harsh as this might be, wants to move on with it and stop delaying the inevitable at the cost of more civilians lives.
I think there are other scenarios short of your A and B. C - stalemate lasting years like Afghanistan, D - tired Russian troops (not commanders) capitulate E - russian forces grind to a halt due to lack of supply
 
Millions is a massive understatement. Even if it doesn't turn nuclear, we're looking at tens of millions at least. If it goes nuclear, we're looking at billions, and the very likely end of modern human civilization.
There’s no ‘if’ about nukes being used if WW3 breaks out. We aren’t rational enough as a species to refrain from using the deadliest weapon available in an all out existential conflict, despite the near certainty that it would mean our own annihilation.

After the fall of the USSR, there should have been a real effort in nuclear disarmament. The fact that 30 years after and we still have enough nukes to blow up the world many times over is mind boggling.
 
My argument is that if World War causes X number of civilian deaths, and the delaying of World War which (again, only personal opinion) is inevitable as I don’t see any diplomatic solution to stop this from escalating, causes Y number of deaths.

I’d rather only lose X number of civilians rather than X + Y.
In contrast to others, I get your hypothetical point but I think it's completely off.

If WW3 were to break out, it would make the casualties from this invasion look like a mild flu season. Europe would be done, Ukraine would be done, Russia would be done and global food supply would be in tatters.

It's essentially the end of our civilisation.
 
WW3 is a nuclear war, it's not inevitable (and I say this as someone who lived thru the Cold War) and the casualties there could be in the high hundreds of millions.

It's far worse than that - a full-scale nuclear exchange would permanently extinguish all sentient life on earth.

Short of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the West should absolutely not take any risk of direct combat with the Russian military.
 
Every expert I've read doesn't seem concerned by Chernobyl including that article:

"But, the International Atomic Energy Agency said a loss of power at Chernobyl "does not have any critical impact" on wider safety. They state there is "sufficient" cooling water for any excess nuclear fuel."

I'm going to go with the experts, but if they did go for another plant that's obviously where the West would get involved. I suspect if they do something, it'll be at Chernobyl because they can do it without a meltdown but still get the West worried.

We also need to remember that there's now super powerful satellite watching every inch of ukrainian ground in areas of interest. Any weird move involving many individuals is watchable from space and would be recorded. While satellite can't know where missiles are fired and where they land, the can see what's going on on the ground. It's very likely that the most advanced spy satellites have a 1cm resolution that allows you to photograph pretty much anything going on outside.
 
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I'm not saying it wouldn't, but the delaying of (what I believe to be) an inevitable World War only pushes the casualties even higher.

I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
 
It's far worse than that - a full-scale nuclear exchange would permanently extinguish all sentient life on earth.

Short of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the West should absolutely not take any risk of direct combat with the Russian military.
It would but I was being optimistic (!) and going for a limited exchange.
 
I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
I do suspect a lot of what is happening on the Russian side at the moment is about bolstering a negotiating position.
 
I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...

But, likewise, Putin wouldn't take any deal that doesn't include Russia taking huge areas of Ukraine in addition to the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, which but Ukraine and the 'West' wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't accept. I just don't see how diplomacy wins when Putin is at the proverbial table.
 
But, likewise, Putin wouldn't take any deal that doesn't include Russia taking huge areas of Ukraine in addition to the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, which but Ukraine and the 'West' wouldn't, couldn't and shouldn't accept. I just don't see how diplomacy wins when Putin is at the proverbial table.

The ultimate solution is for european countries that are currently part of NATO to completely draw out from NATO and form their own, being puppets in the hands of the americans/british is clearly showing, if the US doesnt give the green light to engage the russian army in military combat, the current situation will not change.
 
I do suspect a lot of what is happening on the Russian side at the moment is about bolstering a negotiating position.

What annoys me the most to be honest is they all sit and smile during the negotiations as you can see on the cameras then go back to their corners and start killing each other again
 
The ultimate solution is for european countries that are currently part of NATO to completely draw out from NATO and form their own, being puppets in the hands of the americans/british is clearly showing, if the US doesnt give the green light to engage the russian army in military combat, the current situation will not change.
Great solution. Should they invite Putin for tea as well?
 
The ultimate solution is for european countries that are currently part of NATO to completely draw out from NATO and form their own, being puppets in the hands of the americans/british is clearly showing, if the US doesnt give the green light to engage the russian army in military combat, the current situation will not change.

So they should form an alliance that would be useless against the biggest threats europe faces? Doesn't sound that smart. European countries are USA's puppets for a reason : it's by far the strongest military power in the world. It would take decades and trillions of euros for european countries to be on par with the arsenal the USA have.
 
I think they will all sit soon and agree to terms, Putin can't sustain a long war and the pressure is on the NATO for not having the balls to intervene and I don't think it's in their interest to do so, it's mainly the american scum politicians who are fueling the war, alongside the world-class lobbying of britain, of course, the ukranian people will pay the bill unfortunately...
I don’t think anyone will agree terms any time soon.
It’s in Ukraine plus everyone else’s interest (apart from actual Ukrainians) to string this along for as long as possible and bleed Russia dry. This is inevitable. The longer it goes the more fecked putin and Russia will be.
Putin is so pig headed The only way he gets out of this without something awful happening is him in a wooden box.
My money (and I am a bad gambler!) Is on putin drinking a poloniumcalada within the next 6 months and things returning vaguely back to normal.
 
Millions is a massive understatement. Even if it doesn't turn nuclear, we're looking at tens of millions at least. If it goes nuclear, we're looking at billions, and the very likely end of modern human civilization.
Well, yeah. "Millions" can mean tens of or hundreds of. I'm not saying the maximum number would be 9,999,999.
 
Well, yeah. "Millions" can mean tens of or hundreds of. I'm not saying the maximum number would be 9,999,999.

I wasn't being pedantic, I was adding to your point. If I wanted to be pedantic I'd just call you a stupid bird and tell you to go shit on a roof.

Edit: Also accuracy is important when explaining to him why the World War would be bad enough to avoid at all costs.

Now go home and get your shinebox.
 
Great solution. Should they invite Putin for tea as well?

I did not say that but I give you two perspectives:

USA dropped two nuclear bombs, not one, two on Japan, destroyed afghanistan, destroyed Iraq, 1 million casualties. Putin for all the "atrocities" he is doing now, doesnt even compare to that. Both are insane, but do you trust someone like the USA?
 
I did not say that but I give you two perspectives:

USA dropped two nuclear bombs, not one, two on Japan, destroyed afghanistan, destroyed Iraq, 1 million casualties. Putin for all the "atrocities" he is doing now, doesnt even compare to that. Both are insane, but do you trust someone like the USA?
:lol:
 
I did not say that but I give you two perspectives:

USA dropped two nuclear bombs, not one, two on Japan, destroyed afghanistan, destroyed Iraq, 1 million casualties. Putin for all the "atrocities" he is doing now, doesnt even compare to that. Both are insane, but do you trust someone like the USA?

Putting "atrocities" in quotation marks does not help your larger point one bit.
 
I did not say that but I give you two perspectives:

USA dropped two nuclear bombs, not one, two on Japan, destroyed afghanistan, destroyed Iraq, 1 million casualties. Putin for all the "atrocities" he is doing now, doesnt even compare to that. Both are insane, but do you trust someone like the USA?

Over Putin, 100%.

America aren't insane. I'm also not sure you can hold Biden to actions carried out by Truman as well.
 
How does this then get resolved? Without a domestic tooling of Putin what other direction does this go in?

It'll get resolved when Putin finally realises he can't defeat Ukraine militarily, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't take Kyev.

At that point he will have lost very significant portions of his invasion force and equipment and be left with an utterly demoralised military, withdrawing from some areas of Ukraine but still occupying other areas. And then the real negotiations will begin about what (if any) areas of Ukraine the government is willing to cede to Russia.

Ukraine will not agree to demilitarisation, nor to staying out of the EU. They might agree to not joining NATO.

Putin will then have to decide whether to reject what Ukraine offers, or instead face military conflict without end inside Ukraine. The latter prospect will be a very unattractive option for him, risking substantial further losses with little means of replacing them, and ever-rising unrest inside Russia.
 
So they should form an alliance that would be useless against the biggest threats europe faces? Doesn't sound that smart. European countries are USA's puppets for a reason : it's by far the strongest military power in the world. It would take decades and trillions of euros for european countries to be on par with the arsenal the USA have.

But what is the threat here? You expect Putin to be able to invade all of europe? And for what exactly? There were a lot of business operations and common benefits between russia and european countries, take germany/russia for example, you are making it seem as if Russia is in some other continent, the russians are european as much as any other european country and what the european countries should do, if they care about the future of europe, is to engage the russians directly for cease fire instead of waiting to see what the usa/tells them what to do because they will be the one paying in the end...
 
Over Putin, 100%.

America aren't insane. I'm also not sure you can hold Biden to actions carried out by Truman as well.

Biden is a shit president, but Bush(both father and son) for example, are these what you consider better than Putin? They are as bad and even worse
 
I did not say that but I give you two perspectives:

USA dropped two nuclear bombs, not one, two on Japan, destroyed afghanistan, destroyed Iraq, 1 million casualties. Putin for all the "atrocities" he is doing now, doesnt even compare to that. Both are insane, but do you trust someone like the USA?
If you think any of these big countries are helping you out of the goodness of their heart, you are deluded or naive.

The question is, do you prefer the USA, Russia or China. I know what my lesser evil would be.

There is no such thing as neutrality in the modern world. Going forward, it'll be big blocks against each other in economic and social warfare.

The fact Russia is trying to go for the brute force approach shows how outdated their thinking and general approach is. They're still dangerous but only as far as a suicide bomber screaming his head off. China, on the other hand are a much more sophisticated opponent.
 
If you think any of these big countries are helping you out of the goodness of their heart, you are deluded or naive.

The question is, do you prefer the USA, Russia or China. I know what my lesser evil would be.

There is no such thing as neutrality in the modern world. Going forward, it'll be big blocks against each other in economic and social warfare.

The fact Russia is trying to go for the brute force approach shows how outdated their thinking and general approach is. They're still dangerous but only as far as a suicide bomber screaming his head off. China, on the other hand are a much more sophisticated opponent.

I think Russia/China are trying to re-shape how the world is currently being run, for the good or the bad, yet to be seen, but you can't deny that the whole planet has been a slave to the petro-dollar that started since WW2 finished