Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Russians don't even have control of a single major Ukrainian city at this point. If they think they can bumble their way into controlling the entire country, they may want to reassess, especially given the looming economic Armageddon inside Russia.

Well the US intelligence seems to be they'll encircle Kyiv and take the south within a week.
 
He is talking about segregation by nationality, not race, to reduce tensions when people are attempting to flee the country and be processed at the border.

Not sure why that journalist has decided to spin in that way. But that keeps happening for two weeks now anyway.

I watched that live, it'd be a stretch to say he was referring to nationality. Doesn't make him a racist but he was talking about visible foreigners of different races and the issues it's causing.
 
Well the US intelligence seems to be they'll encircle Kyiv and take the south within a week.

Its possible, but they don't have the resources to hold any cities they take, which means their gains are in constant danger of being reversed once their troops leave a particular area. They simply don't have enough troops or logistical resources available to hold anything.
 
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Attacking a maternity and children’s hospital. FFS. Anytime is despicable but in an agreed ceasefire?

What are they doing? these aren’t professional soldiers. Absolute dogs.
 
Attacking a maternity and children’s hospital. FFS. Anytime is despicable but in an agreed ceasefire?

What are they doing? these aren’t professional soldiers. Absolute dogs.
If you believe reports that the Russians have massive communication problems it might be that they are not even abke to inform all their soldiers about ceasefire agreements.
 
I guess I don't see the nuanced difference. If the planes are leaving Poland and Poland gets attacked why would nato not come to Polands aid. Sending jets to Ukraine isn't Poland attacking Russia. Literally most of the weapons given to Ukraine have entered Ukraine via Poland and Romania.

Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.
 
Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.

The way you wrote that makes me feel that my earlier doubts about NATO could be true. Or I'm reading way too much into it. :lol:
 
Well there's huge difference. US themselves said they don't want them flying out of Germany based airfield as that would endanger Germany and NATO but were completely fine with Poland giving them away and gave us 'green light' to proceed.

Thing is, if Poland flew them out of Polish airifield, or allowed that airfield to be used by Ukrainian forces, they automatically become part of conflict willingly, and do not have to be protected by NATO as it's a strictly defensive alliance. Maybe they would still protect us, maybe they wouldn't, I just wouldn't want to test it to be honest. The fact that US don't want to carry them from their base really goes to show everything we need to know.

Giving weapons is different because it's basically like trade. Planes coming from Polish airspace into airspace where there's active conflict between two countries is a different thing altogether.

wait they said that? because that makes no sense. You have a source for that i could read?
 
If you believe reports that the Russians have massive communication problems it might be that they are not even abke to inform all their soldiers about ceasefire agreements.

I mean... what kind of shit army do they have to have it this bad when it comes to communications? Those guys should not even be able to scratch their asses unless they're told it's OK to.
 
So Mariupol is just going to starve to death? What on earth are the Russians thinking here?
 
I mean... what kind of shit army do they have to have it this bad when it comes to communications? Those guys should not even be able to scratch their asses unless they're told it's OK to.

If the various rumours are true and Russia largely sent very young barely trained soldiers then it's very easy to understand where the problem is, they can't give coordinates or read maps properly. There is a chance that we are witnessing what happens if you send soldiers that haven't finished basic training.
 
If/when evacuation is performed, I'd expect the Aleppo treatment afterwards

They are already getting that treatment, its just maybe a little slower than Aleppo because Ukraine has a defense against the bombers.
 
There comes a point when you question
the point of humanity if we can’t step
in to save the inhumane, are we only here to exist, if so then it’s 100 percent the right thing to do.

The threat of nuclear war is real but this feeling of cowardice is disgusting.

Is it better to live in a communist state then children dead, Ukraine must be considering this.
 
wait they said that? because that makes no sense. You have a source for that i could read?

It’s basically here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-russia-poland-fighter-jets/index.html

And from another article:

The White House is not opposed to Nato-member Poland donating some of its used fighter-jets to Ukraine, press secretary Jen Psaki said.

But Psaki has spelt out that the US is not eager to have that happen in the way suggested by Poland yesterday, whereby it would donate the jets to the US and the US would supply them to Ukrainefrom its massive US-Nato air base in south-western Germany.

Psaki is backing up secretary of state Antony Blinken in a press conference at the state department earlier. Both point out that the logistics are complex but, crucially, it risks the US being drawn in to direct military conflict with Russia.



So basically good for Poland to give them but without involving US. Sounds dodgy as feck to me.
 
From the outset, I've been against a no-fly-zone or any kind of escalation that might cause direct confrontation with Russia - especially with the possibility of a nuclear exchange looming in the background.

...but the more I see of these war crimes piling up, the shelling of refugees, the shooting of civilian cars and journalists and now a maternity hospital being destroyed, I'm starting to wonder if it's time we should act. I mean, pragmatically speaking, what is the worst Putin going to do if we intervene in Ukraine? He couldn't invade anywhere else in Europe because he's already heavily committed in Ukraine and it would take too long to open up other fronts, that in addition to the fact that Russia would have no chance in a conventional war in Europe. He's had a taste of how good NATO tech can be against his disorganised invasion and decrepit hardware, much of which is Soviet era shite. There's no way he'd have any hope of invading a NATO country.

That just leaves the nuclear option, and, unless he's completely lost his mind, he knows that's not winnable either.
 
There comes a point when you question
the point of humanity if we can’t step
in to save the inhumane, are we only here to exist, if so then it’s 100 percent the right thing to do.

The threat of nuclear war is real but this feeling of cowardice is disgusting.

Is it better to live in a communist state then children dead, Ukraine must be considering this.

Sorry, what do you mean communist state? There are no communist states involved here.
 
It’s basically here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-russia-poland-fighter-jets/index.html

And from another article:

The White House is not opposed to Nato-member Poland donating some of its used fighter-jets to Ukraine, press secretary Jen Psaki said.

But Psaki has spelt out that the US is not eager to have that happen in the way suggested by Poland yesterday, whereby it would donate the jets to the US and the US would supply them to Ukrainefrom its massive US-Nato air base in south-western Germany.

Psaki is backing up secretary of state Antony Blinken in a press conference at the state department earlier. Both point out that the logistics are complex but, crucially, it risks the US being drawn in to direct military conflict with Russia.



So basically good for Poland to give them but without involving US. Sounds dodgy as feck to me.

What's dodgier is Poland shipping the planes West for the planes to end up to the East in Ukraine. In what world does that make any logical sense? It's just Poland worried that no one will come to its defense if RU attacks and so they are trying to avoid the consequences, which I don't blame them for what it's worth considering the history.

It's also possible that the planes are already being delivered and this is just a distraction to create plausible deniability. That would be the smartest approach for me at least considering what's at stake.
 
What's dodgier is Poland shipping the planes West for the planes to end up to the East in Ukraine. In what world does that make any logical sense? It's just Poland worried that no one will come to its defense if RU attacks and so they are trying to avoid the consequences, which I don't blame them for what it's worth considering the history.

It's also possible that the planes are already being delivered and this is just a distraction to create plausible deniability. That would be the smartest approach for me at least considering what's at stake.

It doesn't make sense, so yeh it seems likely the public isn't being given the full story here.
 
There comes a point when you question
the point of humanity if we can’t step
in to save the inhumane, are we only here to exist, if so then it’s 100 percent the right thing to do.

The threat of nuclear war is real but this feeling of cowardice is disgusting.

Is it better to live in a communist state then children dead, Ukraine must be considering this.

It's certainly repugnant but it's not cowardice that's stopping intervention.
 
What's dodgier is Poland shipping the planes West for the planes to end up to the East in Ukraine. In what world does that make any logical sense? It's just Poland worried that no one will come to its defense if RU attacks and so they are trying to avoid the consequences, which I don't blame them for what it's worth considering the history.

It's also possible that the planes are already being delivered and this is just a distraction to create plausible deniability. That would be the smartest approach for me at least considering what's at stake.
Yeah I don’t like the entire logistics of it. I think what Poland are trying to do here is ensure that they don’t willingly become part of the conflict and hence are excluded from possible application of article 5.
 
From the outset, I've been against a no-fly-zone or any kind of escalation that might cause direct confrontation with Russia - especially with the possibility of a nuclear exchange looming in the background.

...but the more I see of these war crimes piling up, the shelling of refugees, the shooting of civilian cars and journalists and now a maternity hospital being destroyed, I'm starting to wonder if it's time we should act. I mean, pragmatically speaking, what is the worst Putin going to do if we intervene in Ukraine? He couldn't invade anywhere else in Europe because he's already heavily committed in Ukraine and it would take too long to open up other fronts, that in addition to the fact that Russia would have no chance in a conventional war in Europe. He's had a taste of how good NATO tech can be against his disorganised invasion and decrepit hardware, much of which is Soviet era shite. There's no way he'd have any hope of invading a NATO country.

That just leaves the nuclear option, and, unless he's completely lost his mind, he knows that's not winnable either.

To be fair the RU military has held back much of its most advanced weaponry. We haven't heard much about the S-400 as UKR doesn't have much of an air force but it would become relevant in a NATO conflict. The SU-57 felon is supposed to be a good fighter aircraft too, although maybe not as good as NATO 5th gen. It's not that RU doesn't have good weapons it's that they are doing a poor job of coordinating everything into one coherent plan in terms of fighting UKR. It's possible that their plan to fight NATO is much better and such a conflict would mobilize the entire RU population unlike what has been seen so far with UKR.
 
To be fair the RU military has held back much of its most advanced weaponry. We haven't heard much about the S-400 as UKR doesn't have much of an air force but it would become relevant in a NATO conflict. The SU-57 felon is supposed to be a good fighter aircraft too, although maybe not as good as NATO 5th gen. It's not that RU doesn't have good weapons it's that they are doing a poor job of coordinating everything into one coherent plan in terms of fighting UKR. It's possible that their plan to fight NATO is much better and such a conflict would mobilize the entire RU population unlike what has been seen so far with UKR.

Don’t buy it at all.
 
To be fair the RU military has held back much of its most advanced weaponry. We haven't heard much about the S-400 as UKR doesn't have much of an air force but it would become relevant in a NATO conflict. The SU-57 felon is supposed to be a good fighter aircraft too, although maybe not as good as NATO 5th gen. It's not that RU doesn't have good weapons it's that they are doing a poor job of coordinating everything into one coherent plan in terms of fighting UKR. It's possible that their plan to fight NATO is much better and such a conflict would mobilize the entire RU population unlike what has been seen so far with UKR.
Plus a rumored hypersonic missile system but I have no idea if that thing exists.
 
From the outset, I've been against a no-fly-zone or any kind of escalation that might cause direct confrontation with Russia - especially with the possibility of a nuclear exchange looming in the background.

...but the more I see of these war crimes piling up, the shelling of refugees, the shooting of civilian cars and journalists and now a maternity hospital being destroyed, I'm starting to wonder if it's time we should act. I mean, pragmatically speaking, what is the worst Putin going to do if we intervene in Ukraine? He couldn't invade anywhere else in Europe because he's already heavily committed in Ukraine and it would take too long to open up other fronts, that in addition to the fact that Russia would have no chance in a conventional war in Europe. He's had a taste of how good NATO tech can be against his disorganised invasion and decrepit hardware, much of which is Soviet era shite. There's no way he'd have any hope of invading a NATO country.

That just leaves the nuclear option, and, unless he's completely lost his mind, he knows that's not winnable either.

Yeah I know what you mean and been thinking it the past few days.

I guess it’s a stick or twist moment; is Russia going to crumble under the pressure economically and do you give it longer, or do you start taking some direct action. Tricky one.
 
Don’t buy it at all.

Part of me doesn't buy it either but we don't want to suffer from the same misguided war optimism that RU has suffered in UKR. Once war starts, no one can predict how it's going to proceed. It's best if RU makes the first mistake that we can react to and take advantage of rather than initiate.
 


The Russian Aerospace Forces have lost 56 aircraft and 82 helicopters in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. In the two weeks since the beginning of the invasion, the Aerospace Forces (VKS) of the Russian Federation have lost 138 units of air equipment in the sky over Ukraine. We are talking about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles.
 
It's certainly repugnant but it's not cowardice that's stopping intervention.

Definition of coward

a person who is contemptibly lacking in the courage to do or endure dangerous or unpleasant things.

It is most definitely cowardice.

They can die as long as we don’t, happens all over the world.
 
To be fair the RU military has held back much of its most advanced weaponry. We haven't heard much about the S-400 as UKR doesn't have much of an air force but it would become relevant in a NATO conflict. The SU-57 felon is supposed to be a good fighter aircraft too, although maybe not as good as NATO 5th gen. It's not that RU doesn't have good weapons it's that they are doing a poor job of coordinating everything into one coherent plan in terms of fighting UKR. It's possible that their plan to fight NATO is much better and such a conflict would mobilize the entire RU population unlike what has been seen so far with UKR.
You wont see the SU-57 in combat because there is only a handful of them. They're not going to risk losing one of those planes and you'll probably not seem them in action for a long time either against Ukraine or Nato.

Russia may have held back its "most advanced weaponry" but im doubting it is holding back much. Saving your best gear when you intended to have this issue dealt with in 2 -3 days is mind mindbogglingly stupid because the overall cost long term would far exceed the loss of that equipment in the short term.

The US as an example, wouldnt send in F-16's and F-18's to each conflict to create air superiority. They would use drones to do recon and the F22's and F-15's would be the first planes in to create air superiority before F-35's and F-18's would commence bombing runs on strategic positions. In saying that, its not really fair because even the F-18's and F-16's are more than capable air superiority fighters if converted for that purpose.
 
To be fair the RU military has held back much of its most advanced weaponry. We haven't heard much about the S-400 as UKR doesn't have much of an air force but it would become relevant in a NATO conflict. The SU-57 felon is supposed to be a good fighter aircraft too, although maybe not as good as NATO 5th gen. It's not that RU doesn't have good weapons it's that they are doing a poor job of coordinating everything into one coherent plan in terms of fighting UKR. It's possible that their plan to fight NATO is much better and such a conflict would mobilize the entire RU population unlike what has been seen so far with UKR.
Per wiki, there’s 14 Felons as of last year. They would get neutralized in the first day of a conflict with NATO.
 
If you believe reports that the Russians have massive communication problems it might be that they are not even abke to inform all their soldiers about ceasefire agreements.
If the various rumours are true and Russia largely sent very young barely trained soldiers then it's very easy to understand where the problem is, they can't give coordinates or read maps properly. There is a chance that we are witnessing what happens if you send soldiers that haven't finished basic training.

This is giving Russia far too much benefit of the doubt. They've bombed and shelled civilians indiscriminately in Chechnya and Syria. They're doing it again in Ukraine on purpose because they think it's beneficial to their mission and have no qualms about murdering tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians.
 
I can't believe the plane donation idea is still a thing. We are not towing the planes from Poland to a Ukranian military airport on land. Russia will bomb the smithreens out of it before it is even halfway there.

Lets stop this mad idea.