Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

But the Ukrainians have already decided to fight for their country? That decision is already made. I don’t see how they would meekly give in to everything Putin wants now.
I also don't think that they'll give it up. Just as I don't think that there will be any option that does not involve a massive amount of suffering. There were over 30K people who died in the battle of Aleppo for example. Aleppo is smaller than Kyiv, and Russia is stronger than Syria.

If Kyiv does not surrender soon, I fear we might have hundreds of thousand of deaths.
 
So Putin wants to launch nuclear weapons on who exactly. Everyone? Someone needs to put him down before he destroys the whole planet.
I could see a tactical nuke used first by Putin, like an old Davy Crockett. What happens after would be anyone’s guess.
 
There isn’t going to be a nuclear war because no one is going to do anything that would risk it. Putin wants control of the eastern part of Ukraine and more control of Crimea. It all comes down to oil and gas. He isn’t after a world war.

He'll have plenty of those once everyone starts phasing out theirs. Also good on you to make apologies for him not wanting a world war, just a wee war with Ukraine, it's fine lads.
 
Declare humanitarian crisis in western Ukraine, shut the skies there in order to secure safe passage for refugees, will also provide possible retreat route for ukrainian fighters should they need it. Call russian bluff, they want to start a war, they can make the first move.

Think it's probably safe to say they have.
 
This could work if China were to get on board, as it would deprive Putin of all avenues of international legitimacy in attempting to block it.
No fecking way China would involve military in a no-fly zone. And I think there is next to no chance they will join the sanctions.
 
He'll have plenty of those once everyone starts phasing out theirs. Also good on you to make apologies for him not wanting a world war, just a wee war with Ukraine, it's fine lads.
I’m not making apologies for him? I’m stating that’s what he wants? This whole madman wants a war narrative is just childish. He’s an absolute Cnut but he isn’t after a nuclear war. That’s just a fact.
 
I also don't think that they'll give it up. Just as I don't think that there will be any option that does not involve a massive amount of suffering. There were over 30K people who died in the battle of Aleppo for example. Aleppo is smaller than Kyiv, and Russia is stronger than Syria.

If Kyiv does not surrender soon, I fear we might have hundreds of thousand of deaths.
But they’re fighting for their country, again that decision is made. If they were worried by people dying then surely they’d have simply gave into Russians demands from the outset? They’re defending their country and I can’t see them ever giving up Crimea because Russia invaded them again. The loss of life isn’t on Ukraine and it’s unfair to put that on them imo
 
Hahaha. I hear you but... one of those things that always happens when it comes to warfare, right? 3rd parties always looking for resolutions by horse trading entire parts of other countries to see if they can find an acceptable settlement.
Yeah I was just reporting what I heard here and also giving my view that Putin will not leave the country with (from his perception) less than he entered it with (Crimea which he considered Russian and Luzhansk/Donetsk which he considered independent). It is right for Ukraine to fight for this and it is wrong for him to take it. Ukraine will have to cause Russia to retreat to take those lands back though which is very hard to imagine.

Also with the damage done already things will not be normal anyway. We are probably past the point of ‘it can be solved with negotiations’.
 
But they’re fighting for their country, again that decision is made. If they were worried by people dying then surely they’d have simply gave into Russians demands from the outset? They’re defending their country and I can’t see them ever giving up Crimea because Russia invaded them again. The loss of life isn’t on Ukraine and it’s unfair to put that on them imo
I am not putting it on them, neither saying that they are doing anything wrong, those people are heroes.

Just predicting that this will go that way.
 
What do you think the Holodomor and the Russification of the Ukrainian people during various times of the Soviet Union was? It’s hopefully very unlikely we have get something on the scale of the Holocaust ever again, but we already had Russian thinkpieces on the “Ukrainian question” leaked this week. Putin’s already given his lecture to the Russian people on what he thinks of Ukraine’s right to exist.

People say “never again”, but then we watch various dictators do various things to groups of other people and let it happen.

Not the Holocaust. I also don't think Russification compares to the Holodomor, in sheer horror. I get that many Ukrainians feel like this is the end, but I just don't think evoking the Holocaust even for an aggressive war of expansion is right. Putin is not going to try to exterminate the people of Ukraine, he just isn't.
 
My view on the whole situation for what its worth. The whole thing is about ideologies. Democracy vs dictatorship. Its been like this for years. Nato/EU has pushed east towards Russia for years. First they dissolved the Soviet Union then they took over Czech, Poland etc. Russia could do fk all about it but they managed to secure Belarus as a puppet state and Ukraine (these two countries are the biggest main countries on their border). But then Ukraine's Russian puppet fell to Zelenskyy. This resulted in Ukraine charging Russia a fortune for their gas pipes which resulted in them having to go around and through seabed's (Nordstrom etc). Then Ukraine pushed to join Nato. This happened in 2014. Russia has always been adamant that they would not stand for this on their border. Like the US wouldn't stand for Russia in Cuba. Ukraine also has massive gas reserves which would massively affect their GDP. Zelenskyy starting handing out contracts to BP etc to get the gas because Ukraine cant afford the infrastructure to do it themselves. So Russia response was to take out Georgia and get Crimea. Ukraine responded by cutting off Crimea to water which made Russia have to ship it in which is a logistical nightmare and costs a fortune. There are a million reasons but thats what has culminated in Russia starting this war.

Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.

Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.

This is pretty much what I think but I think he also wanted a puppet russian loving government in Ukraine but his thinking is that even without that, his worst case scenario still gives him what you have described and all this nuclear sabre rattling is just to scare everyone thus putting more pressure kn the west to back a better deal for russia to de-escalate.
 
My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.
Interesting points, time will tell if you are correct. Russian experts in the media who have followed Putin for years don't seem to agree that his ambitions stop at part of Ukraine.
 
I would take a recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk (separatist region only) for a full Russian withdrawal.

I think the economic crush will remove Putin in the near future, but unfortunately not near enough to save Kyiv.

Assuming you have kids, we'll rather sacrifice your mom and one kid, you can keep your dad and the other kid.
 
I’m not making apologies for him? I’m stating that’s what he wants? This whole madman wants a war narrative is just childish. He’s an absolute Cnut but he isn’t after a nuclear war. That’s just a fact.
I doubt he could even start a nuclear war considering what we have seen so far from the Russian military.
 
Not saying that is the right thing. Just not seeing a better alternative without Putin getting ousted, and there is nothing to suggest that might happen.
I agree with you. If Russias conditions are honestly just independence for the 2 breakaway regions, recognition of Crimea as russian and ukranian neutrality. Ukraine should take that.
 
My view on the whole situation for what its worth. The whole thing is about ideologies. Democracy vs dictatorship. Its been like this for years. Nato/EU has pushed east towards Russia for years. First they dissolved the Soviet Union then they took over Czech, Poland etc. Russia could do fk all about it but they managed to secure Belarus as a puppet state and Ukraine (these two countries are the biggest main countries on their border). But then Ukraine's Russian puppet fell to Zelenskyy. This resulted in Ukraine charging Russia a fortune for their gas pipes which resulted in them having to go around and through seabed's (Nordstrom etc). Then Ukraine pushed to join Nato. This happened in 2014. Russia has always been adamant that they would not stand for this on their border. Like the US wouldn't stand for Russia in Cuba. Ukraine also has massive gas reserves which would massively affect their GDP. Zelenskyy starting handing out contracts to BP etc to get the gas because Ukraine cant afford the infrastructure to do it themselves. So Russia response was to take out Georgia and get Crimea. Ukraine responded by cutting off Crimea to water which made Russia have to ship it in which is a logistical nightmare and costs a fortune. There are a million reasons but thats what has culminated in Russia starting this war.

Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.

Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.
Well written and sounds like a very likely outcome
 
Do we have to keep posting Marco Rubio tweets? It's not like they have any new information, it's literally just Marco Rubio's take on events.

Yes. His tweets are grounded in far more reality than any other tweeter in this thread.
 
Yeah I was just reporting what I heard here and also giving my view that Putin will not leave the country with (from his perception) less than he entered it with (Crimea which he considered Russian and Luzhansk/Donetsk which he considered independent). It is right for Ukraine to fight for this and it is wrong for him to take it. Ukraine will have to cause Russia to retreat to take those lands back though which is very hard to imagine.

Also with the damage done already things will not be normal anyway. We are probably past the point of ‘it can be solved with negotiations’.
I agree with you, will be hard for the Ukranian army to go on the offensive and regain land. I wish it could be the case but think it is unlikely.

This is early days and we're sort of looking for decisive victories and/or a negotiated settlement to arise quickly. But there's a chance this conflict could stretch out over months to even years at a lower intensity, which would cause even more suffering.
 
I agree with you. If Russias conditions are honestly just independence for the 2 breakaway regions, recognition of Crimea as russian and ukranian neutrality. Ukraine should take that.

And the sanctions remain? Or does Putin get literally everything he wants by starting a war?
 
I doubt he could even start a nuclear war considering what we have seen so far from the Russian military.
More chance of him blowing his own cock off the way his military service has been fumbling around
 
You know what, I am pretty sure the EU would gladly accept a broad split at this stage, without a bloodbath… the big and loud wake up call is a victory, already: they can regroup, get rid of Russian toxic internal pawns, and organise a stronger union. The EU advanced as a project way more in 4 days than in 20 years, and there is no way back.

The EU would accept...
What makes you think that it is up to the EU to decide where and how Ukraine is carved up.
 
The left guy seems oddly familiar. Think he's in one of the photos in this thread posing with Kadyrov, iirc, must be high ranking.

Bit more on this, the claim was made by Ukraines head of security council. Also states, they were tipped off by russian FSB insiders, who don't want to partake in this war. Plot thickening or misinformation? :annoyed:
 
This whole accepting giving parts of Ukraine to Russia business is crazy.

Imagine it in England for a second, we'll just take Lancashire and Yorkshire please and you can keep the rest. The way people just back down due to threats is mental.

I actually agree we shouldn't be sending troops, but let's leave the decision on what Ukraine should accept to Ukranians maybe?
 
Yes. His tweets are grounded in far more reality than any other tweeter in this thread.
He’s honestly had such a resurgence since this started, actually using his access and then tweeting quite factually it would seem.
 
I thought that as well. Wasn’t he one of Kadrov’s generals who was killed when his convoy got bombed en route to a Ukrainian city?

Just did a bit of google research, and yes, indeed that's him. He was offed couple of days ago.
 
It’s troubling, and the more I think about it, Putin is a madman who is hell bent on maintaining his power in Russia and exerting ‘ maximizing his world influence. But either it was a gross miscalculation, or he is deluded to think that he’s going to “win” anything from this move. It smacks of Hitler and his irrational confidence in invading Russia.

* The economic sanctions will cripple the Russian economy. For a country that has a huge gap in standard of living between the haves and have nots, and a very small middle class, the effects will be widespread.
* Suddenly, very powerful oligarchs will see their assets frozen, and more importantly, their ability to continue business operations, revenues and profits in the west will be severely hamstrung.
* Let’s assume Putin gains control of Kyiv and most of the country? Then what? He’s going to have to deal with massive insurgency. The economic sanctions won’t be lifted as long as he has a finger in Ukraine. Even installing a puppet regime won’t change the economic sanctions.

His only hope is that he can get a stalemate, say, for Ukraine to agree to not join NATO and in return, the sanctions are lifted, but Ukraine’s borders remain unchanged and they continue as a self determined democracy. But he sort of had that option before the war and without firing a shot.