Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[4bars]

I think this is far from what would happen. Europe's economy might implode but even an imploded European economy would vastly outperform Russia. I also think you underestimate the resilience of the population. Russians might be better prepared for it but human beings are highly adaptable and life always gone on until you're dead. That aside, Europe's military would likely completely annihilate any ground forces Russia would send. Putin wasn't even able to implement air superiority in Ukraine, he'd be completely and utterly destroyed by European air forces. So in essence, it would come down to sending a few missiles every day in some European cities and Europe won't crumble under that. Even if he'd be able to force Europe into a ground war, a European war economy would look much different and there would probably be laws put in place that force arms manufacturers to only produce for domestic supply.

And that's not even consider nukes. Deterrance goes both ways. The threat of Russian intelligence in terms of election interferrences, sabotage, etc. is far bigger than the military one.

Hopefully we will not need to see who is right. And if so, I like you take better but I disagree

 

[That_Bloke]

it never stops amazing me how much people overrate Russia's military potential and underrate Europe + Turkey. Just 3 years ago Russia was literally unable to capture Kyiv and beat Ukraine that was on their own, what was supposed to be a few days special operation turned into a major and costly war for them. It's a military society yes and they have manpower, but they've been proving their absolute incompetence over and over again (not only in Ukraine) so I think it's time people put the myth of Soviet army "2nd in the world' to bed. it's not longer an empire, but an extremely corrupt country with a GDP equal to that of Benelux - and half of it is already stolen. They've been unable to beat a much weaker Ukraine and are not winning a conventional war against a bigger opponent anytime soon. Sure, they have the nukes and can threaten those that buy those threats.

even without US airlift capabilities and no US involvement at all NATO could easily defend the Baltics, there's already tens of thousands of NATO soldiers (vast majority of them non-American) stationing in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, add to that other hundreds of thousands nearby in Poland etc.

Say the guy who's crying wolf and trying to warn us about a Munich 2.0. Which is it?

Russia is not a militarized society and I don't think you know what that means. It currently has a war time economy though, something Europe will never switch to, unless directly threatened.

Also, Turkey, which actually got the second biggest army in NATO after the US, is not your friend. It plays its own game and if you think that it will let itself get involved in a purely european war, I've got a bridge to sell you. Especially when the european countries are doing everything they can to prevent it from becoming a EU member.

 

[4bars]

You are somehow envisioning the ww1 style artillery slugfest that's currently ongoing , translated to a bigger scale when Europe joins. That can't be further from the truth. It will be operations with gained air superiority , so RA can be kept at bay without the need for ordnance expenditures that are currently required. This of course doesn't involve capturing (except some buffer zones) signficant Russian territory. And if the US somehow joins it becomes conventional obliteration.

Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems in the world and they kept receiving impacts in kiev itself. Not to talk about all the drone warfare that it has been developing and that Russia has more experience than any european country.

I am not talking about artillery attacks. Europe economy would crumble with much less. Specially for the loss of key people fleeing countries with multiple privileged working visas and dual citizenships if shit hits the fan. I myself with dual citizenship and a family I would jump the boat pretty fast

 

[The Firestarter]

Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems in the world and they kept receiving impacts in kiev itself. Not to talk about all the drone warfare that it has been developing and that Russia has more experience than any european country.

I am not talking about artillery attacks. Europe economy would crumble with much less. Specially for the loss of key people fleeing countries with multiple privileged working visas and dual citizenships if shit hits the fan. I myself with dual citizenship and a family I would jump the boat pretty fast

Ukraine doesn't have 5th gen FA, AEWC fleet , or the sophisticated radar networks that are found westwards of the country.
Also if you are talking cruise missile attacks , you have to take ranges into account. Assuming current territorial control of Ukraine , these attacks need to probably come from Belarus, however , even though he doesn't mind being a Putin vassal , Lukashenko probably has some objections to his little dictatorship getting bombed into the stone age.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems in the world and they kept receiving impacts in kiev itself. Not to talk about all the drone warfare that it has been developing and that Russia has more experience than any european country.

I am not talking about artillery attacks. Europe economy would crumble with much less. Specially for the loss of key people fleeing countries with multiple privileged working visas and dual citizenships if shit hits the fan. I myself with dual citizenship and a family I would jump the boat pretty fast

It has Patriot PAC-3 MSE and that's about it. It's 1 piece in the layered air defence system and ultimately it's not enough and never was enough.

Give Ukraine the whole deck and it would be a different matter. But of course, there's no political will to do so.

All this talk about a unified European military is fantasy. It's never going to happen, at least in my lifetime. Petty Politics and National Greed will always prevent this from happening.

You need tech transfers, standardized naval drydocks, fabrication standardization, munitions standardization, all of which is impossible without

a) A massively authoritarian oversight into all of this

b) Everyone to forgo short-medium term national interests

c) Convincing companies like Dassault, Rhinemittal, BAE etc to scupper their own profits.

d) Massive, massive investment from a unified source of funding.

 

[Red Star One]

Say the guy who's crying wolf and trying to warn us about a Munich 2.0. Which is it?

Russia is not a militarized society and I don't think you know what that means. It currently has a war time economy though, something Europe will never switch to, unless directly threatened.

Also, Turkey, which actually got the second biggest army in NATO after the US, is not your friend. It plays its own game and if you think that it will let itself get involved in a purely european war, I've got a bridge to sell you. Especially when the european countries are doing everything they can to prevent it from becoming a EU member.

read the room a little bit, you got laughed at in this very thread earlier today, got unnecessarily wound up and visibly unnerved in your posts which was pointed out by several other people here, and you come for more? take a break

 

[That_Bloke]

read the room a little bit, you got laughed at in this very thread earlier today, got unnecessarily wound up and visibly unnerved in your posts which was pointed out by several other people here, and you come for more? take a break

Can't help it. I just love to be laughed at by you and your like-minded soulmates.

Anyways, which is it?

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I will say, this thread reads very callous when it comes to prolonging the fight when it's Ukrainian's dying day by day.

 

[The Firestarter]

I will say, this thread reads very callous when it comes to prolonging the fight when it's Ukrainian's dying day by day.

I think this thread has mostly called for honoring Ukraine's decision whether to keep fighting or seek peace.

 

[That_Bloke]

I will say, this thread reads very callous when it comes to prolonging the fight when it's Ukrainian's dying day by day.

It's not their war and an overwhelming majority of them don't have the slightest idea about what it really looks like.

It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life. They're all high on their own brain farts, and play toy soldier whilst comfortably sitting on their couches.

I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.

 

[stefan92]

It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life.

For some it is. You can't speak about all here.

 

[That_Bloke]

For some it is. You can't speak about all here.

Hence the "overwhelming majority".

 

[NotChatGPT]

It's not their war and an overwhelming majority of them don't have the slightest idea about what it really looks like.

It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life. They're all high on their own brain farts, and play toy soldier whilst comfortably sitting on their couches.

I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.

Weird rant.

I will say, this thread reads very callous when it comes to prolonging the fight when it's Ukrainian's dying day by day.

Does it? With Trump behind the wheel it's not unlikely that the outcome will be that Ukraine will have to forfeit a large amount of territory while Russia is allowed back into the markets, in a peace agreement that Ukraine will most likely be forced into rather than it being a peace agreement that Ukraine actually wants. Just because it might end the war it doesn't mean it's a positive outcome. Maybe they're lucky and they get a Putin friendly president after an election..

 

[Simbo]

I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.

I don't have time to keep up with and debate all the discussion, but holy shit man You've shown your true colours I guess.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Weird rant.



Does it? With Trump behind the wheel it's not unlikely that the outcome will be that Ukraine will have to forfeit a large amount of territory while Russia is allowed back into the markets, in a peace agreement that Ukraine will most likely be forced into rather than it being a peace agreement that Ukraine actually wants. Just because it might end the war it doesn't mean it's a positive outcome. Maybe they're lucky and they get a Putin friendly president after an election..

A lot of people right now would be happy to give up Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast (with the return of Kherson Oblast and the incursions set in other oblasts) if it means a meaningful peace.

Elections? The next set of UKR elections is going to be an absolute hell of a shitshow.

 

[TwoSheds]

It's not their war and an overwhelming majority of them don't have the slightest idea about what it really looks like.

It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life. They're all high on their own brain farts, and play toy soldier whilst comfortably sitting on their couches.

I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.

So they're not the bogeyman but they've also put Ukraine through hell for 3 years? How does that work? Did they do it out of overzealous love?

 

[Real Name]

Will Trump lift the sanctions along with the peace deal. I mean, will Russia be awarded tereitory along with everything else like nothing happened?

 

[Real Name]

It's not their war and an overwhelming majority of them don't have the slightest idea about what it really looks like.

It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life. They're all high on their own brain farts, and play toy soldier whilst comfortably sitting on their couches.

I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.

Trainwreck of a post.

 

[4bars]

It has Patriot PAC-3 MSE and that's about it. It's 1 piece in the layered air defence system and ultimately it's not enough and never was enough.

Give Ukraine the whole deck and it would be a different matter. But of course, there's no political will to do so.

All this talk about a unified European military is fantasy. It's never going to happen, at least in my lifetime. Petty Politics and National Greed will always prevent this from happening.

You need tech transfers, standardized naval drydocks, fabrication standardization, munitions standardization, all of which is impossible without

a) A massively authoritarian oversight into all of this

b) Everyone to forgo short-medium term national interests

c) Convincing companies like Dassault, Rhinemittal, BAE etc to scupper their own profits.

d) Massive, massive investment from a unified source of funding.

I am not going to discuss military technical details. I understand Patriot is if not the most advance system, the most advance. I understand also that Ukraine has the most quantities in europe.

Also the IRIS-T, though different capabilities, is among the best if not the best for short range interception and also, Ukraine is the country in Europe that has the most.

When I said that Ukraine has the Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems, I didnt mean that they had a lot nor that it was enough, but that Europe has even less country by country. Meaning that Europe would not be able to defend their major cities, let alone the medium sized ones, and despite that Ukraine CURRENTLY it has more defensive capabilities, they still receive impacts regularly

On your explanation on points A, B, C and D, nothing to object. I well know that is utopic at this point in time, but this would be the only way for Europe to be self reliance in defense.

Currently no one would combine resources to build a european army because what would mean de facto renounce to its own country security and a full european integration and nationalisms would not allow this. But take a decision on design the base of the european military hardware should be possible.

A multinational project like eurofighter is a clear example besides the fact that my little understanding is that they failed to deliver a decent product. But if there is a EU project to standardize the main components of one branch, it would be a start. And then, the decision to manufacture it in every country (or a country not minding outsourcing it) because of nationalistic insecurities would create a economic inefficiencies, but at least not in battle

The C point would need to be discussed in european fundd contracts. Maybe the EU could decide that Leopards are the way to go for tanks and all countries would be forced to buy them exclusively, wouldn't Rhinemittal be happy? what happens with the competition? Maybe assign them the best state of the art product that they have or assign them the desgin with the paramaters desired

The D point might be forced quite soon if US stops being an ally and Russia keeps pushing boundaries

I know that I am very naive on this topics and obviously there are very big hurdles, but EU should aim into that direction. At what speed...As the world is going where is going, the sooner the better

 

[That_Bloke]

Trainwreck of a post.

Thanks for your eminent contribution.

 

[4bars]

Does it? With Trump behind the wheel it's not unlikely that the outcome will be that Ukraine will have to forfeit a large amount of territory while Russia is allowed back into the markets, in a peace agreement that Ukraine will most likely be forced into rather than it being a peace agreement that Ukraine actually wants. Just because it might end the war it doesn't mean it's a positive outcome. Maybe they're lucky and they get a Putin friendly president after an election..

Like in gaza with genocide vs ethnic cleansing and here Ukraine at war vs Ukraine shrinked in peace, If I would be in any of the territories and see my family at risk, ther would be a point that I would wish for the killing to stop at any price

I would love from a geopolitcal standpoint that Ukraine would stand its ground bleeding out till Russia stops? yes, but from a human stand point, I just want the killing to stop and I wish there is a peace agreement. But I am blessed that I don't have to decide on it because is a lose-lose situation regardless

 

[Simbo]

Will Trump lift the sanctions along with the peace deal. I mean, will Russia be awarded tereitory along with everything else like nothing happened?

Russia can't be "awarded" a damn thing. Trump really is a master manipulator, I'll give him that, or whoever pulls his strings. Got the world thinking it really is up to him what happens in this war.

Sanction removal is no doubt in his plans, expect that after his 'deal' falls through and goes full attack mode (again) on Zelenskyy, blaming him for everything and using that as the excuse for helping Russia. Just my guess on how things will go, he still needs some semblance of plausible deniability, the dumb dumbs lap it up.