Hopefully we will not need to see who is right. And if so, I like you take better but I disagree
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Hopefully we will not need to see who is right. And if so, I like you take better but I disagree
Say the guy who's crying wolf and trying to warn us about a Munich 2.0. Which is it?
Russia is not a militarized society and I don't think you know what that means. It currently has a war time economy though, something Europe will never switch to, unless directly threatened.
Also, Turkey, which actually got the second biggest army in NATO after the US, is not your friend. It plays its own game and if you think that it will let itself get involved in a purely european war, I've got a bridge to sell you. Especially when the european countries are doing everything they can to prevent it from becoming a EU member.
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Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems in the world and they kept receiving impacts in kiev itself. Not to talk about all the drone warfare that it has been developing and that Russia has more experience than any european country.
I am not talking about artillery attacks. Europe economy would crumble with much less. Specially for the loss of key people fleeing countries with multiple privileged working visas and dual citizenships if shit hits the fan. I myself with dual citizenship and a family I would jump the boat pretty fast
Ukraine doesn't have 5th gen FA, AEWC fleet , or the sophisticated radar networks that are found westwards of the country.
Also if you are talking cruise missile attacks , you have to take ranges into account. Assuming current territorial control of Ukraine , these attacks need to probably come from Belarus, however , even though he doesn't mind being a Putin vassal , Lukashenko probably has some objections to his little dictatorship getting bombed into the stone age.
It has Patriot PAC-3 MSE and that's about it. It's 1 piece in the layered air defence system and ultimately it's not enough and never was enough.
Give Ukraine the whole deck and it would be a different matter. But of course, there's no political will to do so.
All this talk about a unified European military is fantasy. It's never going to happen, at least in my lifetime. Petty Politics and National Greed will always prevent this from happening.
You need tech transfers, standardized naval drydocks, fabrication standardization, munitions standardization, all of which is impossible without
a) A massively authoritarian oversight into all of this
b) Everyone to forgo short-medium term national interests
c) Convincing companies like Dassault, Rhinemittal, BAE etc to scupper their own profits.
d) Massive, massive investment from a unified source of funding.
read the room a little bit, you got laughed at in this very thread earlier today, got unnecessarily wound up and visibly unnerved in your posts which was pointed out by several other people here, and you come for more? take a break
Can't help it. I just love to be laughed at by you and your like-minded soulmates.
Anyways, which is it?
I will say, this thread reads very callous when it comes to prolonging the fight when it's Ukrainian's dying day by day.
I think this thread has mostly called for honoring Ukraine's decision whether to keep fighting or seek peace.
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It's not their war and an overwhelming majority of them don't have the slightest idea about what it really looks like.
It's not their friends, sons, daughters, fathers, mothers who die or are injured and scarred for life. They're all high on their own brain farts, and play toy soldier whilst comfortably sitting on their couches.
I'd almost wish Russia was the bogeyman they all make it to be and give them a small taste of what Ukraine has endured for the last three years.
For some it is. You can't speak about all here.
Hence the "overwhelming majority".
Weird rant.
Does it? With Trump behind the wheel it's not unlikely that the outcome will be that Ukraine will have to forfeit a large amount of territory while Russia is allowed back into the markets, in a peace agreement that Ukraine will most likely be forced into rather than it being a peace agreement that Ukraine actually wants. Just because it might end the war it doesn't mean it's a positive outcome. Maybe they're lucky and they get a Putin friendly president after an election..
I don't have time to keep up with and debate all the discussion, but holy shit man
You've shown your true colours I guess.A lot of people right now would be happy to give up Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast (with the return of Kherson Oblast and the incursions set in other oblasts) if it means a meaningful peace.
Elections? The next set of UKR elections is going to be an absolute hell of a shitshow.
So they're not the bogeyman but they've also put Ukraine through hell for 3 years? How does that work? Did they do it out of overzealous love?
Will Trump lift the sanctions along with the peace deal. I mean, will Russia be awarded tereitory along with everything else like nothing happened?
Trainwreck of a post.
I am not going to discuss military technical details. I understand Patriot is if not the most advance system, the most advance. I understand also that Ukraine has the most quantities in europe.
Also the IRIS-T, though different capabilities, is among the best if not the best for short range interception and also, Ukraine is the country in Europe that has the most.
When I said that Ukraine has the Ukraine has currently some of the most advanced systems, I didnt mean that they had a lot nor that it was enough, but that Europe has even less country by country. Meaning that Europe would not be able to defend their major cities, let alone the medium sized ones, and despite that Ukraine CURRENTLY it has more defensive capabilities, they still receive impacts regularly
On your explanation on points A, B, C and D, nothing to object. I well know that is utopic at this point in time, but this would be the only way for Europe to be self reliance in defense.
Currently no one would combine resources to build a european army because what would mean de facto renounce to its own country security and a full european integration and nationalisms would not allow this. But take a decision on design the base of the european military hardware should be possible.
A multinational project like eurofighter is a clear example besides the fact that my little understanding is that they failed to deliver a decent product. But if there is a EU project to standardize the main components of one branch, it would be a start. And then, the decision to manufacture it in every country (or a country not minding outsourcing it) because of nationalistic insecurities would create a economic inefficiencies, but at least not in battle
The C point would need to be discussed in european fundd contracts. Maybe the EU could decide that Leopards are the way to go for tanks and all countries would be forced to buy them exclusively, wouldn't Rhinemittal be happy? what happens with the competition? Maybe assign them the best state of the art product that they have or assign them the desgin with the paramaters desired
The D point might be forced quite soon if US stops being an ally and Russia keeps pushing boundaries
I know that I am very naive on this topics and obviously there are very big hurdles, but EU should aim into that direction. At what speed...As the world is going where is going, the sooner the better
Thanks for your eminent contribution.
Like in gaza with genocide vs ethnic cleansing and here Ukraine at war vs Ukraine shrinked in peace, If I would be in any of the territories and see my family at risk, ther would be a point that I would wish for the killing to stop at any price
I would love from a geopolitcal standpoint that Ukraine would stand its ground bleeding out till Russia stops? yes, but from a human stand point, I just want the killing to stop and I wish there is a peace agreement. But I am blessed that I don't have to decide on it because is a lose-lose situation regardless
Russia can't be "awarded" a damn thing. Trump really is a master manipulator, I'll give him that, or whoever pulls his strings. Got the world thinking it really is up to him what happens in this war.
Sanction removal is no doubt in his plans, expect that after his 'deal' falls through and goes full attack mode (again) on Zelenskyy, blaming him for everything and using that as the excuse for helping Russia. Just my guess on how things will go, he still needs some semblance of plausible deniability, the dumb dumbs lap it up.
1) The Luftwaffe has always had 9 active anti-air battalions with Patriot and a further 4 in reserve. 3 of them got given away. The Patriots that Germany operate are also PAC-2 GEM-T which is a generation behind PAC-3 MSE. Germany alone has more than Ukraine. Germany has ordered 4 Lockheed PAC-3 Batteries and 8 more PAC GEM-T batteries from Raytheon. That should bring their total active and reserve battery count to around 20+. 4x Ukraine's number.
2) Poland has bought a metric shit-tonne of Patriot launchers recently, although how much of that is active, how their batteries are structured is pretty much non-disclosed. It's more than what Ukraine have.
3) Ukraine has no mobile anti-air assets outside of some pretty limited FlakPanzers in the form of Gepards and that ilk. No M-Shorad, Avenger, D.E Shorad, British Stormers, etc etc. Ukraine has no dedicated BMD system like THAAD, David's Sling or Arrow 3. Ukraine also does not have any form of tertiary naval assets which can act as portable anti-air defences. Things like Astor 30 Block II for Ballistic missile defence and Astor 15 for anti-cruise missile defense. There is no very short range Visual Range interceptors for specific point defence like Land C-RAM, CIWS etc. There is no data linked aircraft interception mechanism that can allow for Fighters to be directed on specific kill paths of missiles. Right now the tactics for using planes to intercept is "Shit, missiles are coming, get the jets in the air and shoot any that happen to go in their radar range." Western Europe has all of this, and Central Europe has most of this.
4) You cannot force military contractors to give up IPs and such without a gigantic economic and financial cost. USA were able to do this in WWII because the Government just subsidized the entire weapons manufacturing industry. Patents for hardware basically became redundant. Trying to escalate this across 27+1 European nations is going to amount to a barbaric political task.
5) Yeah sure, Rhinemittal would be happy that Leopard II's are now standardized. Do you think that the French and KNDS are going to be happy that all of a sudden their LeClerc production line will have to shut down? Do you think BAE will be happy Challenger II's will be shut down? Italians and CIO are going to be happy to lose all their contracts for the Ariete? Now try that for all the vehicle standards and types. It will require top down legislation from a super-political entity in the EU and somehow keeping every constituent country happy - which is nigh on impossible. Imagine the F-35 production line but instead of dealing with 50 states + UK trying to get a piece of the production pie, it's 28 sovereign nations each with their own agendas? Good luck with that.
6) None of this is politically possible without their being an overarching United States of Europe - and good fecking luck with that one.
When i said that "i am not going to discuss military details..." i reaized that i left out the sentence "...with you that know much more than me"
Thanks for the lesson with the data. I stand corrected
Agree on points 4-5-6. The current political climate makes it nearly impossible and probably would only happen when conflict is at the door, or probably past the door
But again, never thought that what i said is plausible, only that the EU should strive to achieve it even if it is a 30-40 years path
How can there be meaningful peace if the very country that got invaded, and bombed to pieces, isn't involved in the peace talk and don't get to decide on their own? It's not exactly complicated, this is the deal and you either accept it or you don't, but if you don't accept it we'll cut the supplies you need to survive and you're likely to lose it all, simple but effective.
A lot of people where??
How do you know they would be happy.
Obviously you would be happy if another country invaded yours and took over a large part of it.
That is no way to have a lasting peace is it.
Awarded in the sense of lifting sanctions, figure of speech.
Dont mention it.
It is a shame that Germany hadn't loaned or given Ukraine their Tornado bombers that were designed to hit the shit out of Russia.
In Ukraine. Going purely by empirical evidence (what my Ukrainian friends & known journalists tell me), it's certainly a fairly popular sentiment. Afonso also has a lot of personal connections there.
Happy probably isn't the right word but you shouldn't read much into it. It's not the case of people being relieved that Russia has invaded them in order to get rid of problematic regions. Given the current situation, a lot of people in Ukraine would be content with losing Donetsk and Luhansk, especially given that they've been fighting them for more than a decade now (all instigated by Russia, its money, military and propaganda, but still). A lot of people wouldn't (probably still the majority). Zaporizhzhia & Kherson is a completely different matter though.
Love how Trump mentioned there will be place for Ukraine at the table as well as if that's a surprise or his good will, not the only logical solution.
Apparently a Russian drone has hit the fourth Chernobyl power unit - possibly damaging the shelter which is protecting it from leaking radiation…
I'm sure there will be some excuse found for a supposed bogeyman, Russia.
Oh no doubt about that! Probably make him a scapegoat too. Wouldn't be surprised if Putin asks for Zielinsky to be extradited to Russia once he becomes a private citizen again
I see we have another poster who is informing us what exactly are Russian goals and which are not. He sure reminds me of another late poster.
The problem is that those are needed to carry nuclear weapons as part of a deal with the USA. Germany will receive F-35 to replace them, but until then they will be kept operational.
I appreciate your comment and I can understand that.
However, if Ukraine had to give up those areas to Russia, wouldn't Russia see that as victory and encourage them to make further attacks in the future?
Of course lots of comments flying around how its Ukrainians themselves who bombed the powerplant..