Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Sarni said:
Tomorrow is second round of talks, speculations here is that Russia want Crimea and for Luzhansk and Donetsk to be considered independent republics, plus affirmation of Ukraine neutrality (whatever that means in their understanding). No word on whether they actually want change of government in Ukraine if the East is basically returned to Russia.
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I think this is the dream scenario for this to end.

I don't think Russia wants only this much though. If true, then unfair as it is, Ukraine should accept this, or the West pressuring them to accept this. I am afraid though, that it will be far more than this.
 
UpWithRivers said:
My view on the whole situation for what its worth. The whole thing is about ideologies. Democracy vs dictatorship. Its been like this for years. Nato/EU has pushed east towards Russia for years. First they dissolved the Soviet Union then they took over Czech, Poland etc. Russia could do fk all about it but they managed to secure Belarus as a puppet state and Ukraine (these two countries are the biggest main countries on their border). But then Ukraine's Russian puppet fell to Zelenskyy. This resulted in Ukraine charging Russia a fortune for their gas pipes which resulted in them having to go around and through seabed's (Nordstrom etc). Then Ukraine pushed to join Nato. This happened in 2014. Russia has always been adamant that they would not stand for this on their border. Like the US wouldn't stand for Russia in Cuba. Ukraine also has massive gas reserves which would massively affect their GDP. Zelenskyy starting handing out contracts to BP etc to get the gas because Ukraine cant afford the infrastructure to do it themselves. So Russia response was to take out Georgia and get Crimea. Ukraine responded by cutting off Crimea to water which made Russia have to ship it in which is a logistical nightmare and costs a fortune. There are a million reasons but thats what has culminated in Russia starting this war.

Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.

Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.
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I agree with this being the most likely outcome.
 
ChaddyP said:
We are close to the us but I wouldn't call that a strategic location to do anything to them that the Chinese can't already do themselves. Our location is only beneficial as a trading point for transshipment

... The government gave them 1200 acres of land...not exactly a huge amount and it's for building hotels not a military base.

And I can tell you , our extremely zenophobic anti Chinese culture will not be influenced by China anytime soon. There are about as many Jamaicans living in the us as there are in the island itself. The US army is full of Jamaicans so much so my friend that serves in the US army just got married to a fellow Jamaican marine that he met in the army.

The us is always fretting about anyone that tries to influence any country in the world 100 miles away or 10k miles away.

We had an extremely close trading relationship with Venezuela for years as they sold us cheap oil. When it came down to the nitty gritty we sided with uncle Sam as we always do and didn't recognize Maduro as legitimate. There is a better chance of hell freezing over before our government enacts some sort of anti us policy. Because as far as Jamaica is concerned anti us is anti Jamaican due to our embeded ties
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I don’t disagree but It’s a very long game, the land returns to Jamaica in 50 year but the hotels will always be Chinese owned. If you think pre covid tourism was 30% of your GDP (per statista) that’s a clear area for China to exert influence over whilst making money if it keeps investing in that sector. Anyway this is the Ukraine/Russia thread but feel free to PM me.
 
Revan said:
I think this is the dream scenario for this to end.

I don't think Russia wants only this much though. If true, then unfair as it is, Ukraine should accept this, or the West pressuring them to accept this. I am afraid though, that it will be far more than this.
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Well this is just speculation by the experts I don’t even know so might be nonsense, but they seem to strongly believe this could end quickly by virtually giving the East Ukraine back to Russia, but also that there is almost zero chance of Ukraine accepting any of that. Ukraine want Crimea, Luzhansk and Donetsk fully back before it ends. I do not see that as feasible in any way without West intervention.
 
fergieisold said:
source? Nothing on wiki?
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Was discussed earlier in this thread. There’s a big Reddit thread where some guy uncovered everything which must have taken him ages but just Google and you’ll find the high level very quickly. Horrible guy.
 
Sarni said:
Well this is just speculation by the experts I don’t even know so might be nonsense, but they seem to strongly believe this could end quickly by virtually giving the East Ukraine back to Russia, but also that there is almost zero chance of Ukraine accepting any of that. Ukraine want Crimea, Luzhansk and Donetsk fully back before it ends. I do not see that as feasible in any way without West intervention.
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I don't see how Putin withdraws without getting at least Luzhank and Donetsk, in addition to Ukraine recognising Crimea as part of Russia.

I genuinely think this is by far the best case scenario for Ukraine. The other three options are extremely long guerrilla warfare that will kill from hundreds of thousands to millions of people, nuclear war, or Putin being removed. It is hard to bet on the third one.
 
nimic said:
Evoking the massacre of 33 thousand Jews in an attempt to exterminate an entire people seems... iffy. This is terrible, but this isn't that.
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What do you think the Holodomor and the Russification of the Ukrainian people during various times of the Soviet Union was? It’s hopefully very unlikely we have get something on the scale of the Holocaust ever again, but we already had Russian thinkpieces on the “Ukrainian question” leaked this week. Putin’s already given his lecture to the Russian people on what he thinks of Ukraine’s right to exist.

People say “never again”, but then we watch various dictators do various things to groups of other people and let it happen.
 
Revan said:
I don't see how Putin withdraws without getting at least Luzhank and Donetsk, in addition to Ukraine recognising Crimea as part of Russia.

I genuinely think this is by far the best case scenario for Ukraine. The other three options are extremely long guerrilla warfare that will kill from hundreds of thousands to millions of people, nuclear war, or Putin being removed. It is hard to bet on the third one.
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I just don't see Ukrainians returning to their destroyed cities to live close to Putin governed former Ukrainian areas. He'll end up getting all of the Ukraine.
 
Sarni said:
I just cannot imagine a situation where Russia retreats, basically returns Crimea to Ukraine (which they have proclaimed as part of Russia for the last 8 years), admit Luzhansk and Donetsk are part of Ukraine and this ends like that. Either there is split and middle ground or this will continue for a long time with millions dying and there being very little left of Ukraine.
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UpWithRivers said:
My view on the whole situation for what its worth. The whole thing is about ideologies. Democracy vs dictatorship. Its been like this for years. Nato/EU has pushed east towards Russia for years. First they dissolved the Soviet Union then they took over Czech, Poland etc. Russia could do fk all about it but they managed to secure Belarus as a puppet state and Ukraine (these two countries are the biggest main countries on their border). But then Ukraine's Russian puppet fell to Zelenskyy. This resulted in Ukraine charging Russia a fortune for their gas pipes which resulted in them having to go around and through seabed's (Nordstrom etc). Then Ukraine pushed to join Nato. This happened in 2014. Russia has always been adamant that they would not stand for this on their border. Like the US wouldn't stand for Russia in Cuba. Ukraine also has massive gas reserves which would massively affect their GDP. Zelenskyy starting handing out contracts to BP etc to get the gas because Ukraine cant afford the infrastructure to do it themselves. So Russia response was to take out Georgia and get Crimea. Ukraine responded by cutting off Crimea to water which made Russia have to ship it in which is a logistical nightmare and costs a fortune. There are a million reasons but thats what has culminated in Russia starting this war.

Now this is not a pro Russia viewpoint. They are still a bunch of cnts. My point being that the viewpoint pushed by the West that Putin is just a crazy fker thats lost his mind is not exactly true. They keep pushing this theory that he wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. This cant be true. Its an impossibility. They have learned that from Iraq and Afghanistan etc. You cannot hold a country. But you can fk it up. And thats what he will do. Its a big fk you to the West. If I cant have Ukraine then you wont either. He will bomb the sht out of it. Disable it and withdraw to the borders. He will hold Crimea and the area North by the river to control the water and he will control the east. These areas are next to Russia and hold the majority of the gas and the access to the ports. Thats where he will stop. He is not going to Nuke anyone or go into Poland etc. That would be suicide.

Thats my theory anyway. Everyone needs to chill out and stop building bunkers. Its bad for your mental health. Lets help Ukraine and do what we can but lets keep our sanity while we do it.
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You know what, I am pretty sure the EU would gladly accept a broad split at this stage, without a bloodbath… the big and loud wake up call is a victory, already: they can regroup, get rid of Russian toxic internal pawns, and organise a stronger union. The EU advanced as a project way more in 4 days than in 20 years, and there is no way back.
 
Dans said:
I just don't see Ukrainians returning to their destroyed cities to live close to Putin governed former Ukrainian areas. He'll end up getting all of the Ukraine.
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Not saying that is the right thing. Just not seeing a better alternative without Putin getting ousted, and there is nothing to suggest that might happen.
 
So Putin wants to launch nuclear weapons on who exactly. Everyone? Someone needs to put him down before he destroys the whole planet.
 
I would take a recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk (separatist region only) for a full Russian withdrawal.

I think the economic crush will remove Putin in the near future, but unfortunately not near enough to save Kyiv.
 
The first week of this has shown just how much bullshit is on Twitter and how much is believed. Guilty of it myself. I wouldn’t believe anything you see on there until it’s actually verified.
 
spiriticon said:
I would take a recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk (separatist region only) for a full Russian withdrawal.

I think the economic crush will remove Putin in the near future, but unfortunately not near enough to save Kyiv.
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If the botox face agrees to withdraw, he will want to have sanctions lifted.
 
TMDaines said:
Enjoying the non-Ukrainians carving up Ukraine here.
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As bad as it is, is there a way out short of an all-out war?

The FT are leading that China might try to play mediator. Article is behind a paywall but if you google the title, you can read it.
 
Redlyn said:
So Putin wants to launch nuclear weapons on who exactly. Everyone? Someone needs to put him down before he destroys the whole planet.
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Not sure he wants to, just using it as a bargaining chip to get more in his favour tonagtee tonde escalate. Poker and chess all wrapped into one without a humanitarian thought in his brain
 
Seems to be quite easy to cut a country in half from your sofas at home and give half of it the guys who just bombed and murdered its people.
 
Sarni said:
Tomorrow is second round of talks, speculations here is that Russia want Crimea and for Luzhansk and Donetsk to be considered independent republics, plus affirmation of Ukraine neutrality (whatever that means in their understanding). No word on whether they actually want change of government in Ukraine if the East is basically returned to Russia.
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If that is true, then the YouTube video somebody posted yesterday was absolutely correct. Take all the gas and oil reserves of Ukraine while maintaining a nice buffer from NATO.
 
TMDaines said:
Enjoying the non-Ukrainians carving up Ukraine here.
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Hahaha. I hear you but... one of those things that always happens when it comes to warfare, right? 3rd parties always looking for resolutions by horse trading entire parts of other countries to see if they can find an acceptable settlement.
 
TMDaines said:
What do you think the Holodomor and the Russification of the Ukrainian people during various times of the Soviet Union was? It’s hopefully very unlikely we have get something on the scale of the Holocaust ever again, but we already had Russian thinkpieces on the “Ukrainian question” leaked this week. Putin’s already given his lecture to the Russian people on what he thinks of Ukraine’s right to exist.

People say “never again”, but then we watch various dictators do various things to groups of other people and let it happen.
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The tartar Muslims for example used to the majority ethnic group in the Crimea, they're indigneous to the region, yet the Russians started forcing them out in the 18th century. Stalin essentially ethnically cleansed crimea of Tartars.
 
ShinjiNinja26 said:
Surely someone on the inside takes the fecker out before he can get his finger anywhere near the button. Nuclear war is good for absolutely no one.
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There isn’t going to be a nuclear war because no one is going to do anything that would risk it. Putin wants control of the eastern part of Ukraine and more control of Crimea. It all comes down to oil and gas. He isn’t after a world war.
 
Revan said:
I don't see how Putin withdraws without getting at least Luzhank and Donetsk, in addition to Ukraine recognising Crimea as part of Russia.

I genuinely think this is by far the best case scenario for Ukraine. The other three options are extremely long guerrilla warfare that will kill from hundreds of thousands to millions of people, nuclear war, or Putin being removed. It is hard to bet on the third one.
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But the Ukrainians have already decided to fight for their country? That decision is already made. I don’t see how they would meekly give in to everything Putin wants now.
 
Declare humanitarian crisis in western Ukraine, shut the skies there in order to secure safe passage for refugees, will also provide possible retreat route for ukrainian fighters should they need it. Call russian bluff, they want to start a war, they can make the first move.
 
Well if Ukraine doesn't want to be carved up, then unfortunately I see no other option then the flattening of Kyiv. Hard hats on.
 
BluesJr said:
There isn’t going to be a nuclear war because no one is going to do anything that would risk it. Putin wants control of the eastern part of Ukraine and more control of Crimea. It all comes down to oil and gas. He isn’t after a world war.
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The problem is the Ukrainian’s are never going to allow that to happen so then there’s a stalemate with neither side backing down. I don’t see how the situation de-escalates without removing Putin from power.
 
ShoePolish said:
Declare humanitarian crisis in western Ukraine, shut the skies there in order to secure safe passage for refugees, will also provide possible retreat route for ukrainian fighters should they need it. Call russian bluff, they want to start a war, they can make the first move.
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This could work if China were to get on board, as it would deprive Putin of all avenues of international legitimacy in attempting to block it.
 
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