Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rektsanwalt said:
isn't 630 billion considering the size of Russia quite peanuts? I mean, our german federal budget for a whole year is around that size and that's always assuming most functions accordingly
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This is Russia's reserve in foreign currency. It was estimated to 630 billion. You only need it to cover what the country is importing when you can't do it in your own currency. And eventually, pay the debts and interests. Most of the federal budget would be spent locally on other stuff for which you don't need the USD.
 
IWat said:
Exactly what was done in the ME numerous times by allies. That's legitimate restraint. Example: Leaflets were dropped on Fallujah telling civilians to leave before it got utterly decimated from the air, from artillery, from everything. Putin has not even reached that level yet.
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I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
 
Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.
 
Rightnr said:
I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
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So were we.

I am not saying the war itself is legal, but this is standard from the book stuff. It's perhaps what other posters have said, people haven't had this as close to home before.
 
IWat said:
It does potentially give them more warning, which gives them more time to get their land-based weapons off. It doesn't change the outcome for either side.
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I don't even think that is the case. B2 would be able to fly over Russia, let alone over Poland and Baltics without Russia detecting them.

And B2 can carry dozens of nuclear warheads. And there are a few B2s in the air all the time. And they can go from the US to Moscow without needing to refuel.

So with ICBMs, SLBMs and stealth bombers, I think that keeping nuclear weapons in Europe (or removing them) is purely symbolic. Unless they are tactical nukes, which anyway makes no sense anymore considering how stronger NATO is.
 
For me, if Putin is smart enough, he should end this epic as fast as he can. Negotiation with Zelenskyy shows me that Russia has been hurt a lot due to many factors. A lot of overestimated things has come to Russia in the past few days like protest from Moscow and St.Petersburg, ejecting from Swift and boycotts from EU. I think Putin has underestimated Ukraine for all his life and if the wars is being continue, Russian economics will be overwhelming decline and the worst is Russia will fall apart.
 
Revan said:
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.

Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
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Posture.
 
General_Elegancia said:
For me, if Putin is smart enough, he should end this epic as fast as he can. Negotiation with Zelenskyy shows me that Russia has been hurt a lot due to many factors. A lot of overestimated things has come to Russia in the past few days like protest from Moscow and St.Petersburg, ejecting from Swift and boycotts from EU. I think Putin has underestimated Ukraine for all his life and if the wars is being continue, Russian economics will be overwhelming de and the worst is Russia will fall apart.
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He won’t retreat after 5 days and I honestly doubt he will retreat at all.
 
Sarni said:
I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.
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Which will never happen because it would be the end for Russia if they did that.

Putin is evil but he's not that stupid. He knows he can take Ukraine without severe consequences so he has. He knows he can't launch nukes or they will come back at him and his people ten fold.

There won't be any world war. Real shame that Ukraine will be lost though.
 
Gambit said:
Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.
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Even when the world is normal, I don’t think Russia can dominate European financially.
 
Mike Smalling said:


This is no longer in the consideration phase - they have just publicly announced that they are suspending all container shipments to and from Russia. Couldn't find an updated news story in English though.

Not sure how big a share of Russia's import and export that is, but it must be a huge blow for their economy. Most likely other shipping companies will follow suit.

I don't think Putin has any idea what he has actually done. More and more sanctions from governments and companies will follow. The economy will be in ruins very shortly.
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FedEx & UPS suspended ops yesterday into Russia iirc.
 
Varun said:
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.

Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.

When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
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But with the same logic, he can then ask for Poland, Germany and Alaska or hey nukes. Or well, make him the Emperator of the world, or hey nukes.

My understanding is that no one wants to use the nukes first, but will have no trouble doing a second strike if they first got attacked by nukes. In case of Russia, they even have an automated third strike (likely the US has the same).

So my point is, getting attacked has a higher chance of causing a nuclear war than getting sanctioned. The US/NATO and Russia/Soviet Union essentially were sanctioning each other for 50 years and there were no nukes involved.
 
sun_tzu said:
hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out
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No he would have withdrawn from NATO, there's documentation to support this was his plan for a second term.
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
Which will never happen because it would be the end for Russia if they did that.

Putin is evil but he's not that stupid. He knows he can take Ukraine without severe consequences so he has. He knows he can't launch nukes or they will come back at him and his people ten fold.

There won't be any world war. Real shame that Ukraine will be lost though.
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If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.
 
General_Elegancia said:
If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.
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If there's nuclear war across Europe and the Northern hemisphere (there won't be), I think the economic situation will be the least of our concerns!
 
sport2793 said:
No he would have withdrawn from NATO, there's documentation to support this was his plan for a second term.
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The fact so many people are unaware of how close to a defence disaster NATO came is pretty alarming. The guy had nothing to be afraid of in his second term. Which makes me think we might still be fecked just with a 4-year time lag.
 
Rightnr said:
The fact so many people are unaware to how close to a defence disaster is pretty alarming. The guy had nothing to be afraid of in his second term. Which makes me think we might still be fecked just with a 4-year time lag.
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A 2nd term would've been a stake in the heart of NATO, to where what has happened over the past week would've been left to individual member states to take action.
 
Rightnr said:
I'm sorry this shit is not comparable. He's an invading force and is literally killing people for his own pride.

This war is Putin's doing, so I won't hear any of this restraint.

None of this was necessary in any way shape or form
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Again, I don't think this is the right thread for this kind of talk but this kind of response does annoy me to be honest.

The only thing that is 'not comparable' about this is that this country is in Europe and the refugees fleeing are 'different' from before (I'll let others make their own minds up as to how).

Bombs flattening your city aren't any nicer because the instruction is coming in English/ French vs Russian, or because the context is 'democracy' rather than 'denazification' or because you're brown with black hair, rather than white with blonde hair.

Again, hoping this madness is stopped soon and Putin retreats with his leg between his tails.
 
Raoul said:
A 2nd term would've been a stake in the heart of NATO, to where what has happened over the past week would've been left to individual member states to take action.
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Pretty much. I do think an unintended consequence of both Trump and Putin's actions here though is that the rest of Europe will see both countries as fundamentally unreliable partners/ visibly hostile ones and reclibrate their defence approaches long term accordingly (as Germany have already started doing).
 
spiriticon said:
Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.

Bear in mind also, if Putin survives this, he will 100 percent sanction proof his economy for the future.
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Take note that despite the Kremlin's nuclear bluster, NATO has only doubled down and increased its support. From hand held arms to fighter jets and now talking about use of airbase in Poland, the EU application is even being considered.

Worldwide support for Ukraine is increasing by the day even, its not just about NATO/US/EU.

I grow more and more convinced that if Russia escalates too much there will be some sort of intervention. The red line is not an attack on NATO, its somewhere before that, just not sure where.

Also 'sanction proofing' his ecomomy is impossible. Well... technically possible I suppose, but he'll be fighting his wars with sticks and stones.
 
sun_tzu said:
hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out
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UK and France would so. And so would Germany, which might have a formidable army in a few years if they really invest as they said.

Poland is no slouches either. Their army should be stronger than Ukraine's and their air force with dozens of F35 should make the sky very contestable. So considering how shit the Russian army seems to be, I think that Poland is unlikely to fall.

Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics is a bit more problematic. The Baltics in particular, the Russian army should be able to invade them within a day. But this assumes no help from the others. I think that even without a US-led NATO (which in any case would not happen immediately after Trump becomes president), the Europe might be a lot of trouble for Russia.

Give Germany a decade investing 2% of their GDP in the army (in addition to this one-off 100B drop), and their army alone would be stronger than Russia's.

Even if he wins Ukraine, I think that Putin has lost Europe. He made massive investments to divide Europe with his fake news tactic and alt-right support, and in the space of a week that is all gone, with the West being more united than ever, and Germany finally leaving behind their past and aiming to become a military superpower on their own.
 
Gambit said:
Russia needs to take its place in the world now and recognise it's another France and UK. If they'd have stopped with this idea of Empire and concentrated on economics for the last 20 years they could be have been well on their way to dominating Europe financially.
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Agreed. But corruption and nationalism made them an oil-gas economy, while keep spending on military. And now have cut the ties with almost all the Slavic world. I m sure many belarussians (rightly) probably hold Russia responsible for their sutiation. Who has left? Maybe some Serbians still see them as an ally.
 
General_Elegancia said:
If he launches nukes, they will be monster hands from UK, France and Germany. Oh and probably USA too, I think USA will join the battle for sure if he launches. Probably Russian economics will face enormous economics crisis.
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There will be no economics left if nukes are in play.
 
Revan said:
Even if he wins Ukraine, I think that Putin has lost Europe. He made massive investments to divide Europe with his fake news tactic and alt-right support, and in the space of a week that is all gone, with the West being more united than ever, and Germany finally leaving behind their past and aiming to become a military superpower on their own.
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It's the UK I worry about after all this is over: out of the EU and Russian money being in London like no where else. Our financial and business laws just are not setup to provide any sort of transparency or accountability - and you are looking at decades of work to unpick that. The current government, the Conservative party in general, and much of the political elite don't seem to have the appetite to eliminate this Russian influence. They are talking a good game, but we have seen many games spoken well over the years with no subsequent action. If Russia wins this and the EU continue on their new path, you could well see Russian influence in the UK increase, not decrease.
 
Simbo said:
Take note that despite the Kremlin's nuclear bluster, NATO has only doubled down and increased its support. From hand held arms to fighter jets and now talking about use of airbase in Poland, the EU application is even being considered.

Worldwide support for Ukraine is increasing by the day even, its not just about NATO/US/EU.

I grow more and more convinced that if Russia escalates too much there will be some sort of intervention. The red line is not an attack on NATO, its somewhere before that, just not sure where.

Also 'sanction proofing' his ecomomy is impossible. Well... technically possible I suppose, but he'll be fighting his wars with sticks and stones.
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At the moment, I feel like it's all a bit of muscle flexing in front of the gym mirror by NATO. I only hope there's truly a bit of substance behind the verbose when the shit hits the fan.

Anyway, I don't know if Russia's economy can survive this. It will probably be bad for a few years but if they survive they will eventually adapt and create enough alliances internationally to grow again. The Middle East, East and South America have no beef with Russia, they are probably quite happy to have better trade deals with them.
 
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Enigma_87 said:
This war also pushed Europe to look for energy options and independence in the long run, which will gradually make that market a lot more competitive for Russia, even if sanctions are relaxed over time.
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In Germany our minister for economic affairs and climate action climate action has announced that his office will be exploring whether or not it makes sense to delay the scheduled withdrawal from coal and nuclear power. Which is quite the statement, considering he's from the green party.
Last time they were part of the government they got dragged into the Afghanistan war and this time around they already had to show willingness to compromise three of their core topics (arms, nuclear energy and coal).

On the other hand I've read that the country's gas reserves are sufficient to last until next winter and they are going to build new terminals to be able to accept deliveries from other countries via ship. So maybe German dependence on Russian gas is less of an issue than first feared.


In general I saw a map that tries to quantify Europe's dependance on Russian gas:



Maybe that could in part explain why Hungary refused to facilitate military shipments into Ukraine.
 


One to keep an eye on. There's couple of russian transmitted recordings in the tweet thread.
 
do.ob said:
In Germany our minister for economic affairs and climate action climate action has announced that his office will be exploring whether or not it makes sense to delay the scheduled withdrawal from coal and nuclear power. Which is quite the statement, considering he's from the green party.
Last time they were part of the government they got dragged into the Afghanistan war and this time around they already had to show willingness to compromise three of their core topics (arms, nuclear energy and coal).

On the other hand I've read that the country's gas reserves are sufficient to last until next winter and they are going to build new terminals to be able to accept deliveries from other countries via ship. So maybe German dependence on Russian gas is less of an issue than first feared.


In general I saw a map that tries to quantify Europe's dependance on Russian gas:



Maybe that could in part explain why Hungary refused to facilitate military shipments into Ukraine.
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We will have zero need for their gas from November 2022.
 
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