Exactly that.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Exactly that.
Just because the US is supporting Ukraine doesn't mean they have a right to decide on Ukraine behalf. Any decision on the future is 100% down to the people of Ukraine. Any by the way, the US is not the only country supporting Ukraine.
Ukraine will get the decision obviously but it'll be a choice between any US brokered peace deal or carrying on the war without US support. That isn't going to be much of a choice.
It's unlikely that others will step up, in fact they'll probably be strong armed by the US into pushing Ukraine into acceptance.
Sure, Ukraine can decide its fate and US has no saying in it, but US can decide to retire any support and Ukraine has no saying in it. Is a cards game and Ukraine will play with a reasonable set of cards with US and a shitty hand without the US.
In the end Ukraine will take its own decision between a proposed deal by the US and fight Russia alone (or with Europe). As long as the proposed deal is better than the other outcome, Ukraine will accept and will be the one deciding its fate. But obviously conditioned by US.
It is all nice and dandy to say that is 100% down to the people of Ukraine but reality is another
Yes... Still do... Unless Russia receives some serious financial aide fast, they are f*cked, well and truly (sorry harms, hope you are preparing somewhat). When Ukraine takes its land back, it takes it all at once. No-one looking at the numbers thinks Russia will last another 2 years. The problem of course is that Trump cannot afford to lose his main ally, I'm just hoping its already too late.
Not EXACTly the same I don't think. Biden's stance was one of pragmatism and one I suspect you might the logic with, even as a Ukrainian?
Ukraine's ascension to NATO is inevitable, just not any time soon. For the time being the only security guarantees will be their own military strength, the support and funding of its allies (those that still have their sanity) and the continued destruction of Russia's ability to wage war, however long it takes.
Trump's solution, Russia wins and Ukraine loses.
Just can't help himself can he. Regime change in Ukraine is evidently what he's been talking about with Putin. Well, aside from progress report on implementing Putin's blueprint in America.
For the record, Europe has contributed twice as much as the USA to Ukraine.
For the record, Europe has contributed twice as much as the USA to Ukraine.
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"Ukraine will have to make a deal, they can't face the Russian army without US help".
The Russian army:
Zero chance Ukraine will be force into a deal, none. Equal chance Europe is letting this opportunity slip to end the threat of Putin's Russia once of for all, its in sight.
The Russian army:
Zero chance Ukraine will be force into a deal, none. Equal chance Europe is letting this opportunity slip to end the threat of Putin's Russia once of for all, its in sight.
I think you are a little too optimistic there. Trump will start lifting the sanctions and even make some deals to help them. Hopefully Europe continues supplying UKR though, even ramps up. Increasing the production capacity would only be helpful in the long run.
That is the worry, if Trump finds a way to provide financial aid, but its not like removing sanctions will restore Russian trade to what it was, they will be a pariah state for decades.
I just hope its already too late for them. They've officially entered an economic state of "managed cooling"
If my Kremlin translator is working correctly I think that means they be f*cked.Not great news for Ukraine. Basically confirmation that the USA will look to strike a deal with Russia that suits, and likely benefits themselves, and then try to strong arm Ukraine into acceptance regardless of what it is. I wouldn't be surprised if the sanctions on Russia by the USA are lifted shortly as well, regardless of peace being achieved.
I posted this in the Trump thread, but he's said it numerous times now. He is very much a believer in imperialism. He said that Russia being the larger more powerful state has an inherent right to territory and Ukraine fighting back was the real issue,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...sky-ukraine-russia-sean-hannity-b2685565.html
Source on this please
This states otherwise:
European Military aid to Ukraine has been very frustrating because there's just no strategic impetus or cohesion in what they're giving.
A battalions worth of French Light Tanks here, another battery worth of French SpGs there, German's send another battery worth of SPGs, a collection of 122mm, 120mm, 155mm, 152mm artillery from various countries, a mix of different ATGM's and anti air platforms etc etc etc.
How can you create an organic military structure with this kind of equipment? All with different supply chains, spare part trains, ammo types.
Europe needs to talk to each other and agree on a cohesive plan of how to actually arm Ukraine.
That opportunity has been around for three years now...
Source on this please
This states otherwise:
European Military aid to Ukraine has been very frustrating because there's just no strategic impetus or cohesion in what they're giving.
A battalions worth of French Light Tanks here, another battery worth of French SpGs there, German's send another battery worth of SPGs, a collection of 122mm, 120mm, 155mm, 152mm artillery from various countries, a mix of different ATGM's and anti air platforms etc etc etc.
How can you create an organic military structure with this kind of equipment? All with different supply chains, spare part trains, ammo types.
Europe needs to talk to each other and agree on a cohesive plan of how to actually arm Ukraine.
Depending on sources.
This source says double in aid by europe. But still allocation
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
But is 100% true what you said. Europe could donate 10 time more but would not achieve the same results than with the US military help.
Unless there is a satisfactory outcome of any ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine which is not a complete sellout for Ukraine, then all that money and equipment donated to Ukraine by the US as well as all of the other countries will have been wasted.
That's the problem with NATO, most militaries are quite unbalanced and rely on some input from the US to coordinate. They need to get Macron's EU army off the ground it would appear, or at least the EU bit of NATO does.
Depends on the point of view. It suits large military contractors as well as the option to test weaponry. It suits the corporations whilst of course not the regular citizen. With this grinding war not many of the USA people care these days especially considering they are very far from the conflict.
Going by what Trump is saying probably it means Ukraine losing Donbass which is vital for their economy as well as Russia putting their hands on the Sea of Azov entirely on their own.
I doubt Ukraine can go on much longer without USA support even if restrictions are in place. Russian economy can go on for years in the state of military economy as this isn't a western state and people won't revolt in the way if it happens in Germany or France. Putin has that regime locked and the only way he's stopped if he's killed or taken down.
It's not only weaponry in this grinding war as Ukraine men are well tired and they don't have the same capacity as Russia, especially when Russia can also throw in foreign conscripts.
I don't believe that's entirely true, he sees the world through a business lense, how often he talks about sensitive geopolitical matters like a transaction of material gains and losses.
His right wing base have for years been targeting aid being given to Ukraine as a waste of money (along with all other foreign aid). They don't care about the war or how it impacts people all they are about is their 'tax dollars being given abroad'.
Therefore, he's just doing what he's been mandated to do and it's not coming as a surprise. The EU and US under Biden had an opportunity to fund/arm Ukraine properly but they failed to do so. Now Ukraine will be forced to the negotiation table and will get a terrible deal out of it. The only positive is that people will stop dying.
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...for a bit.
He didn't mandate to give Russa what it wants. He's a fascist and approves of the Dictator approach. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians have something on him. To somehow blame Biden and the EU is quite something when they have been sending millions of fund and arms throughout the war. The only person at fault here is Trump who is being Putin's bitch.
But that's not what I said, he's mandated to stop sending money to Ukraine, which he's doing, I doubt his voter base cares how it's done. Yes the EU and Biden have given millions but most analysts have said it's been just about enough to keep them in the fight and not enough to tip the balance in their favour.
Right wing populist strongmen generally sing from the same hymsheet and most of the time stick together. Like I said Trump just cares about trade/business if he can make some money he will make a deal with the devil.
Surprisingly level-headed and not overly dramatic post, I'm happy to read it. I think many greatly underrate how economically ravaged Russia currently is and how the war economy has already affected (negatively in 99% cases) almost the entire country. Their numbers are terrible and the info I'd be getting from people who left friends and families in Russia is even worse. Things already went very south and there's little to no hope on improving this.
Now US out of the war and stopping their support for Ukraine is obviously a bad news for Kyiv, but they're still being supported by militaries much stronger and much more capable than the Russian one - sure they'll lack the US intelligence and plenty of support like communications, but two main issues for Ukraine were ammo (supplied mainly by the EU) and manpower (no one really helping Ukraine with this). Trump is the strongest player in this game no doubt, but the times where the US president would singlehandedly decide on the outcome of a distant war are long gone.
Let's see how all this will be taken by Ukrainians, who are in fact the only people relevant in discussing the future of the conflict - the war exhaustion is certainly very high, more and more people are willing to accept concessions and give the land in order to stop fighting, if the Russian propaganda continues hitting the right notes - 'you've lost already, your allies left you' - the fatigue will only increase. So there might be internal pressure on finding any kind of truce/peace offer, but then again Ukrainians are really well aware that if they give up now and allow Putin to pull off what Hitler did with Czechoslovakia, there's even less hope for them in the future.
I honestly expect Ukraine to keep defending themselves and I don't think their self-defence should or will stop anytime soon. Waiting for Russia to implode is obviously not a grand strategy, especially as we all know how high are the levels of despair and devastation needed for Russians to find courage to revolt, but as the war goes on it's both sides that are getting weaker and fatigued. Only one side is fighting in the self-defence and to save their culture and identity from invaders, which still gives them a huge morale boost and it really won't be easy to convince Ukrainians they should just fold.
It's as level-headed and not overly dramatic as your take. Both completely out of touch with the reality.
As bad as the situation in Russia is, and it is bad, you're living in la-la-land if you think that "waiting it out" and a war of attrition would favour Ukraine, let alone without US support.
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In the event that Ukraine is forced to accept a terrible deal which involves concerning territory to Russia, the dying won't stop.
Ukrainian forces will keep trying to regain that territory. And Russia will probably try to gain more of Ukraine in the future.
The only way that the dying will stop is if there is somehow a truly mutually acceptable deal, which is extremely remote.
The best way is for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO and Russia has to accept that it can not invade another country with the risk of NATO retaliation. Unlikely.
Care to elaborate on what makes you think that?
I mean, if you read my post you would notice that in the last paragraph I specifically mentioned that 'waiting it out' is no strategy for Ukraine. Nonetheless, what strikes me as living in la-la-land and being out of touch with the reality is buying the Russian propaganda and thinking they're getting closer to their goals (constantly changing btw) with each passing day.
Exactly what happened in 2014, it was just a prelude to the existing war just like the deal now will be just the postponement of future war and dying.
No.
If you don't think that the US pulling out (if it indeed does) is nothing short of a death blow for Ukraine with fatal consequences, you're too far gone and living on a hope and a prayer.
I read it. You wrote "no grand strategy" which is not the same. Your analogy with Hitler also awards you one Godwin Point.
Ukraine is currently barely hanging on for dear life and on the back foot, with the US still in it (with about one toe). Yet you believe that it's somehow doable, when the US is leading the dance, being Ukraine's biggest financial and military support by a few light-years. A support that can not be compensated by the Europeans in any shape or form.
Trump's arrival to the WH is a catastrophe, not only for Ukraine but the whole world. It's going to be quite the new landscape in four years.
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DT13
Thank you.
Help, my eyes are rolling out of my head and I can't stop them.
Keep them spinning, you might win something.
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At want point this idiotic "law" will stop being a thing? Do we have to wait for an actual world war to call it "plausible"? Or the rate at which a certain nationality of people is being killed is not yet on the industrial scale that a proper comparison mandates...
Don't hold your breath. It's basically a Pavlovian response, there was never any understanding about it.
I'm not entirely sure if referring to Munich conference gets me Godwin points but smarter people than me believe there are some lessons to be had from history - being afraid of talking about anyhow comparable situations in the 1930s and pretending that Nazis were one-off bad guys never to be likened to any other regime does seem childish to me.
and that's just factually wrong, unless you have a very loose definition of "a few light-years"
No one is really denying that.
The way Godwin's law was used was always broadly stupid (and Godwin agrees), but it's particularly stupid to invoke it when discussions about the first major war of conquest in Europe since World War 2 turn to the guy who started World War 2.
Equally dumb is when people say "X can't be a fascist, he's not a member of the National Socialist German Workers Party".
Yes exactly. We need to remember that Ukraine joining NATO is a decision for the whole of NATO and not just Donald Trump.
Because it's a cheap and lazy analogy, used to shock rather than explain. OMG, iT's MUnIcH aLL oVer aGain!
- Is Putin a dictatorial piece of shit? Yes, yes he is.
- Is he Hitler? No. Or we've had lots of Hitlers in the past 80 years. The closest to actually become a fully fledged one, in heart and spirit, is Benjamin Netanyahu, current Prime Minister of the only democracy and beacon of light in the Middle-East, unconditionally and fully supported by the US and most of the western democracies.
- Will there ever be a justifiable motive to directly interfere with and/or invade a sovereign nation? Of course not. I mean, the West does it all time, but it's still not and will never be an excuse. Russia is definitely on the wrong side (sorry, I have to write it down because I'm not sure the message would get through some thick skulls otherwise).
- Is the situation remotely comparable to what it was in 1938? Absolutely not. Russia is light-years away from what Nazi Germany was from an economic and military point of view, the balance of powers isn't the same, and the ideology which Putin is running with is completely different. Also, nukes.
It is not. No amount of emojis will deny the fact that the US is the big daddy in this ocean of shit, and the main actor in how this war will be decided. But you and the charitable mob that's trying to gang up on me, do you and keep laughing.and that's just factually wrong, unless you have a very loose definition of "a few light-years"
Glad we agree on something.
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Source on this please
This states otherwise:
European Military aid to Ukraine has been very frustrating because there's just no strategic impetus or cohesion in what they're giving.
A battalions worth of French Light Tanks here, another battery worth of French SpGs there, German's send another battery worth of SPGs, a collection of 122mm, 120mm, 155mm, 152mm artillery from various countries, a mix of different ATGM's and anti air platforms etc etc etc.
How can you create an organic military structure with this kind of equipment? All with different supply chains, spare part trains, ammo types.
Europe needs to talk to each other and agree on a cohesive plan of how to actually arm Ukraine.
Source is what @4bars posted: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
This is the most complete and accurate info on it that I know of, all sources are stated and data corrected if/when any error comes to light. Have a look through the downloadable dataset, there's a lot more detail than shown on the site, just wait until tomorrow when they publish the next dataset update (its currently up to October 24).
I don't think it is widely known that Europe has provided as much military aid as the US, like at all, even before looking at the values over and above that have already been committed. Although those 'to be allocated' € includes some long term plans for future security and not necessarily will effect the current war.
To debate about what a US pull out means, we also need to show the increase in Ukraine's own domestic production and its trajectory. Another thing the world seems oblivious to and something Biden contributed to.
I don't have time to dig into it all right now but just off the top of my head, you've got the 4 Rheinmetall factories, 2 already in operation, the Bradley replacement will be coming out of there for one. They are producing their own shells, their own 155m self-propelled artillery, drone production is insane and still expanding. Long range capability... we're seeing the evolution of every day (also can't understate the importance of it being Ukr weapons striking deep within Russia, not US/NATO).
Factor in the price of a switchblade included in those US aid numbers, Ukraine is producing 50 FPV drones for the same amount. Just one example.
Europe will step up, other remaining sane countries around the world will step up, people/civilians will step up. Volunteers are still going to Ukraine from all over the world on a daily basis to join the foreign legion, I help sponsor one of them, I'll be applying to help out another this month.
I've sure got hopes @That_Bloke but I don't rely on them. I'm not too precious about being wrong. Trump will do damage no doubt, but Ukraine has only ever grown stronger as this war has progressed, not weaker, I keep hearing that but there's not a whole lot to back it up with apart from media bile and conjecture. Russia on the other hand has only got weaker, will only get weaker, that is plain for all to see.