I wonder what it would take for other currently powerful figures in Russia (be they oligarchs or high-ranking government members) to be pushed into a move against Putin?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I wonder what it would take for other currently powerful figures in Russia (be they oligarchs or high-ranking government members) to be pushed into a move against Putin?
I understand why they should stay, I think they won't regardless. The regime change angle must have been explored in the last few days and given the way Putin rules and protects himself, it doesn't look very good. That's why I think our best hope is a coup while putin is still fighting this war. If he wins, it'll be too late because I don't think Russian civilians will be screwed forever and concessions will be inevitable especially given he's seen crying nukes wins every time.
Full-scale nuclear strikes are not something either side can defend against even with standard ICBM's being used.
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
Yes.
The West has dismissed his threat of nuclear war as a smoke screen to try and push Ukraine into surrender.
US and UK intelligence has already stated that they are monitoring Russian missiles the same way they did during Cuba. They have yet to see any change in the operating of them.
If the west allowed Russia to take a NATO state it would only encourage Putin to go further and seriously weaken the west's position, they won't allow that.
Spot on. People need to realize that attacking a non-NATO country and a NATO one has entirely different consequences and would be treated a lot differently. This is one of the main reasons why Putin also is so brave with his actions towards Ukraine.
How do you suppose he will do that? If Russia becomes truly isolated from the rest of the world economy, they will essentially have to source and produce everything themselves, which is simply not feasible. They will be cut off from all the economies of scale and comparative advantages in production that exist in the rest of the world. Things like consumer electronics, automobiles, medication, clothing, different kinds of foods, etc. will largely not be available or only available at a much higher price. Then there is of course also the issue of financing - direct investments into the Russian economy will not be possible, so capital will become a lot more expensive.
There is no such thing a sanction proofing an economy in a global market without severe repercussions for the quality of life.
Putin has been given too long a run-up at it, both inside and outside Russia, he has nowhere to go now except full throttle. Wars are easier to start than they are to finish.
If the Eastern provinces of Ukraine are ceded to Putin, to get him back over the border, he will be back in 5 years especially when Russian economy recovers and when he has Nordstream 2 operational. If the two areas are not ceded he will seek to take all of the Ukraine under a old USSR type convention and put the 'sh**'s up all the other former USSR states, in a sort of "I'm coming for you next".
Its only the Russians themselves who can stop Putin. Nato is not prepared to start WW3, and Putin knows this... but he might be if he finds he has no where to go.
Omens are bad!
If the Eastern provinces of Ukraine are ceded to Putin, to get him back over the border, he will be back in 5 years especially when Russian economy recovers and when he has Nordstream 2 operational. If the two areas are not ceded he will seek to take all of the Ukraine under a old USSR type convention and put the 'sh**'s up all the other former USSR states, in a sort of "I'm coming for you next".
Its only the Russians themselves who can stop Putin. Nato is not prepared to start WW3, and Putin knows this... but he might be if he finds he has no where to go.
Omens are bad!
Those were largely containment sanctions. These are far deeper and designed to destroy from within without the need to fire a single shot.
That's assuming Russia is cut of from the world economy as a whole. Trade with China, Brazil and India will solve these problems. I'm highly sceptical that these countries would cut off Russia from their economy.
What use would they be then? Only a handful of European capitals come into play and no heavyweights (London, Paris, Berlin). They could barely get them to the nearest ones (Riga and Kyiv) if the range is 1.000km from Moscow (or where are they located)?
I think that's especially dangerous rather than a good thing. Surround yourself with people afraid to speak up and a nutcase can do whatever he wants to without any reflection. It'd be great if the Putin regime gets overthrown from inside Russia itself but I don't know enough about their political system to even know if that's possible or not.
They don’t need to isolate themselves with the rest of the world though, just the US and Europe. They don’t import that much as it is.
If anything trade with them will increase.
The UK submarines are designed for that eventuality so even if the UK is destroyed then Russia will be too a few hours later. Even if Europe was destroyed and Russia wasn't the global economy would collapse and the likely result would be a new period of severe global instability with wars raging worldwide.
There are ongoing sanctions in many countries despite regime changes. Putin went too far to wave all those sanctions even if peace with Ukraine is committed.
He has prepared for sanctions - no doubt about that, but their economy would bear serious consequences for years to come. Prepared or not. Everything has its price and he won't be able to maneuver as easily as in the past (for example Crimea).
You're living in a country that has at least 1 sub underneath the ocean with the ability to decimate the city centres of circa the biggest 25 cities in Russia.
If you're not safe in the UK, there are few places you are going to be except in the middle of nowhere in noonecaresaboutland.
Russia has gathered a $630 billion "rainy-day fund". Putin had been preparering himsef for the sanctions.
If the sanctions can really prevent him from accessing a majority of those funds, things will turn bad very quickly. Otherwise the sanctions will first harm the urban population with many western services being cut off, but it will not cause any significant pain for the rural population.
At the end, I think China’s position will be key when it comes to the sanctions effect. Many experts have been saying that without Chinese support, the Russian regime is unlikely to survive a month of sanctions.
I would think seizing their hidden assets would do wonders for their allegiances, they can be negotiated with after. Problem is, they probably knew of this long time beforehand, and have adequatly prepared. On top of that, these days they are anywhere close to Putin only when they are summoned, probably patted down and their anal cavities checked.
As things stand, I don't think there's even a snowball to roll against him, and even if one forms, it will be rolling uphill.
Anonymous have been pretty active these days.
fecking round of applause
I also find it sceptical that the EU will in fact stop buying gas from Russia, you know since 1/3 of their total gas comes from there. It's not easy to find alternatives and alternatives with the infrastructure to start pumping such a large demand immediately.
Sanctions will have a lot less of an effect as people think on Putin, it will effect the general population of Russia more. Which imo is a double edged sword, either it turns them away from Putin (best case scenario) or they see it as the West effecting their quality of life and they decide to empower him.
Of course they can still trade with them but you can’t just replace the biggest market in the world. Plus these countries aren’t charities, Russia will not be in a good negotiating position and will be taken advantage of - I don’t see how they generations of Russians don’t go through extreme poverty now unless they withdraw from Ukraine.
fecking hell, what a moment:
I think Anonymous these days have been taken over by the CIA and are basically US Cozy Bear.
Anonymous have been pretty active these days.
I mean, it does depend on the PM's letter that is sealed in a safe on the subs.
It's one of the 1st duties of any new PM on the day they are elected.
So the rhetoric seems to’ve shifted overnight from ‘Putin’s lost the plot and being embarrassed’ to ‘let’s lift sanctions and let him have Ukraine’…
You absolutely cannot have a glorified mafia thug in charge of Europe, it’s insane. He’s wrecking democracies and declaring wars left right and centre, ffs make a stand globally. The long run outcome is worth it.
The World needs to see that this won’t be tolerated because of one little man! - we need rid of him, now.
You absolutely cannot have a glorified mafia thug in charge of Europe, it’s insane. He’s wrecking democracies and declaring wars left right and centre, ffs make a stand globally. The long run outcome is worth it.
The World needs to see that this won’t be tolerated because of one little man! - we need rid of him, now.
So if we are not afraid of nuclear war as you say, but we are just sitting here happily watching Ukrainian people get mullered left, right and centre right now, then the West have to ask ourselves some really important moral questions.
True, they could increase trade with these nations, but if we are looking at the situation with the current sanctions, it would still be with a devastated ruble making their purchasing power much smaller. There might also be a bit of pressure from US/EU/UK on Brazil and India not to trade with Russia. Further, this would make Russia even more reliant on China, which I don't believe Putin wants - he wants to see Russia and China as equals, which they wouldn't be in that case.
Especially if it's really true the liar in chief lied yet again and gave his Russian buddies 30 days to cash out.
https://inews.co.uk/news/government...customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017
I think people's conclusion is that if nukes are a threat, then countries like UK/Poland/Germany/France would be prime targets. We'd probably get the first one though.
China already did that for example.
Also whilst they can sell to the east their natural resources, being eliminated out of the west market will cause additional transportation costs and logistics. They already have huge infrastructures inside pretty much every NATO state with trillions of investments which they need to wave.
Yes Europe will take a hit economically as well, but Russia won't gain anything scrapping an entire market.
You think Bobo has it at the bottom of his to do list? It's possible knowing him!
Yeah but you still have to ease your way into calling their bluff. For me it’s a clear bluff but the intel might not be so sure either way. Jump in here and there and see what comes back
Shame he apparently agreed a grace period for the Russian assets in the UK then.
This also totally fecks up XI's one belt one road plans.
Ahaha, yeah. Knowing him it's probably completely indecisive giving the commander no direction on what action to take.
I imagine it would be a huge propaganda win internally.
And it would play into their long term strategy of dividing the West: the trajectory of the US Republicans is already casting doubt over the future of Nato. Britain has left the EU, who knows what the strength of the union would be if a similar movement became powerful in France, Germany or maybe Italy?
Imagine Eastern Europe without American nukes around, with a Nato weakened by "America first" and an EU that's struggling internally.
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.
Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.
When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
My best friend is a pharmacist, he says the amount of people coming in for iodine pills these days is just absurd. Lots of people here apparently think Brussels would be one of the first targets on the list as the NATO/EU HQ.
It was only a quick research but maybe the part about "you are annihilated before you can even evoke article 5" was aimed more at the Baltic states?
Anyway, it seems as the missile defense systems can't even reliably defend against conventional nuclear attacks, so that's that.
Regarding Putin's echo chamber: Yes it is vut right now it might be the first time in ages that he's confronted with honest opinions from within his inner circle.
Russia and China came to an agreement at least 2 years ago iirc to do their trade in Yuan, effectively ditching the dollar.
I do agree that the power would definitely be with China in this scenario, however, Putin may look at being more reliant on China at this point in time better than being more reliant on the West.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...-has-surged-countries-grow-closer-2022-03-01/
The West could retaliate by sanctioning China but China is a whole different animal. I don't think anyone in the West would want to play such a game as that could potentially collapse the whole economy.