Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Revan said:
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.

Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
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It does potentially give them more warning, which gives them more time to get their land-based weapons off. It doesn't change the outcome for either side.
 
do.ob said:
I imagine it would be a huge propaganda win internally.
And it would play into their long term strategy of dividing the West: the trajectory of the US Republicans is already casting doubt over the future of Nato. Britain has left the EU, who knows what the strength of the union would be if a similar movement became powerful in France, Germany or maybe Italy?
Imagine Eastern Europe without American nukes around, with a Nato weakened by "America first" and an EU that's struggling internally.
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Yet he's completely undone all that within 4 days. He's proven that aside from Nukes the Russian military are not as much of a threat as previously thought. Germany will also now fully rearm with the blessing from the USA.
 
Enigma_87 said:
China already did that for example.

Also whilst they can sell to the east their natural resources, being eliminated out of the west market will cause additional transportation costs and logistics. They already have huge infrastructures inside pretty much every NATO state with trillions of investments which they need to wave.

Yes Europe will take a hit economically as well, but Russia won't gain anything scrapping an entire market.
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This is why it makes no sense to keep pushing for Kyiv. Putin might be losing it but he cares about Russia as a global force - make no mistake he’s now set them back decades all for what? Putting a pro-Moscow president in place who will get overthrown and kill thousands of Ukrainians in an insurgency (many of whom are Russian speaking and relatives of Russians).

Forget the added drama of the Ukrainian resistance and Russia looking weak militarily when viewed through a US or Chinese lens, even if things had gone perfectly for Putin and he was now in control it’s so clearly not worth it for Russia.
 
Varun said:
Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.
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That would be a 100% loss of face for the West imo. If it's true that intellegence services deem the nuclear threat low right now (and in the foreseeable future because of repercussions on Russia), I can't see these sanctions be lifted anytime soon as long as Russia has a presence in Ukraine, let alone if they "win" the war there and take it over completely. We just cannot let that happen or go "oh well, let's get on with it".
 
Revan said:
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe.
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COMMANDO XERXES: What exactly are the demands?

REG: We're giving Pilate two days to dismantle the entire apparatus of the Roman Imperialist State, and if he doesn't agree immediately, we execute her.
 
spiriticon said:
So if we are not afraid of nuclear war as you say, but we are just sitting here happily watching Ukrainian people get mullered left, right and centre right now, then the West have to ask ourselves some really important moral questions.
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I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
 
the_cliff said:
I also find it sceptical that the EU will in fact stop buying gas from Russia, you know since 1/3 of their total gas comes from their. It's not easy to find alternatives and alternatives with the infrastructure to start pumping such a large demand immediately.

Sanctions will have a lot less of an effect as people think on Putin, it will effect the general population of Russia more. Which imo is a double edged sword, either it turns them away from Putin (best case scenario) or they see it as the West effecting their quality of life and they decide to empower him.
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A lot of smaller europoen countries most of the bordering ones rely 100% on Russia for energy.
 
RobinLFC said:
That would be a 100% loss of face for the West imo. If it's true that intellegence services deem the nuclear threat low right now (and in the foreseeable future because of repercussions on Russia), I can't see these sanctions be lifted anytime soon as long as Russia has a presence in Ukraine, let alone if they "win" the war there and take it over completely. We just cannot let that happen or go "oh well, let's get on with it".
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Have you see that tweet above. The lady is right. Roman Abramovich is there, his children are there, Putin's children are in Europe too. Do you really believe that other sanctions will be enforced 100% without any loopholes in them?
 
sun_tzu said:
The answer was cut off ... but I suspect the answer had nowhere close to the gravitas and power of the question
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Actually I listened to some of it and for once, Johnson didn't lie. He said he cannot help because it risks the safety of the UK which I thought is harsh but honest.
 
IWat said:
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
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It's because Ukraine is near to home and it brings up uncomfortable links to WW2. When it's on your doorstep you're going to be angry/afraid especially when the fear of nukes is being waved about.
 
IWat said:
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
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Russia being restrained against civilians? It depends on what you mean by civilians. People who are standing up and joining their army to protect their homeland, are they considered civilians?
 
Pintu said:
Russia has gathered a $630 billion "rainy-day fund". Putin had been preparering himsef for the sanctions.

If the sanctions can really prevent him from accessing a majority of those funds, things will turn bad very quickly. Otherwise the sanctions will first harm the urban population with many western services being cut off, but it will not cause any significant pain for the rural population.

At the end, I think China’s position will be key when it comes to the sanctions effect. Many experts have been saying that without Chinese support, the Russian regime is unlikely to survive a month of sanctions.
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isn't 630 billion considering the size of Russia quite peanuts? I mean, our german federal budget for a whole year is around that size and that's always assuming most functions accordingly
 
RobinLFC said:
My best friend is a pharmacist, he says the amount of people coming in for iodine pills these days is just absurd. Lots of people here apparently think Brussels would be one of the first targets on the list as the NATO/EU HQ.
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Same here. Iodine is out of stock everywhere.
 
IWat said:
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
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Because unfortunately the truth is this war is a European problem. It's in our own back yard and that makes the problem bigger for us.
 
Water Melon said:
Russia being restrained against civilians? It depends on what you mean by civilians. People who are standing up and joining their army to protect their homeland, are they considered civilians?
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No. Enemy combatants in the eyes of international law.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
This is why it makes no sense to keep pushing for Kyiv. Putin might be losing it but he cares about Russia as a global force - make no mistake he’s now set them back decades all for what? Putting a pro-Moscow president in place who will get overthrown and kill thousands of Ukrainians in an insurgency (many of whom are Russian speaking and relatives of Russians).

Forget the added drama of the Ukrainian resistance and Russia looking weak militarily when viewed through a US or Chinese lens, even if things had gone perfectly for Putin and he was now in control it’s so clearly not worth it for Russia.
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To me his end game is capture as much ground as he can and exercise control over it with pro Russian states/governments. Then sit on the table and try to relax sanctions. He would probably like to push the Ukrainian goverment towards Lviv and keep control over central and East Ukraine for some time. Besides he already encircled it so makes no sense to back down.


Varun said:
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.

Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.

When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
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They will probably tire out with time(or change of regime), sure, but the losses during that time will be huge. It might spark a civil war which would probably be the best case scenario to overturn the current regime.

This war also pushed Europe to look for energy options and independence in the long run, which will gradually make that market a lot more competitive for Russia, even if sanctions are relaxed over time.

Add to that the pandemic and you get a very grim picture of Russia economy in the next 5 years. Putin also won't be able to hold a firm grip when it comes to managing the rest of the oligarchs forever and under the current sanctions.
 
IWat said:
I do find it weird, as someone who served in Afghan and tried to train the Afghans to defend themselves against barbaric groups (An impossible task). How there is so much angst against that war yet now everyone seemingly wants to defend Ukraine when surprisingly Russia is being quite restrained against civilians it appears.
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Looks like that is steadily not becoming the case though. It’s also very obviously because, rightly or wrongly, it is essentially a European country being invaded by an old enemy who are proving themselves (or rather Putin) every bit as conniving and untrustworthy as the media had suggested he was. A lot of people did care and protest about Afghan but a whole lot more are protesting this war.
 
Wibble said:
Sanctions don't need to be 100% effective to do their job. Much like vaccination.
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If they are ineffective even 30% it would be enough for the botox face and his cronies to continue sustait quite a comfortable life.
 
Sarni said:
It is Ukrainians saying that, EU have not said anything I think. Ukrainian Defense said we were giving them all our MIG-29 planes and were allowing them to be flown out of Polish airports. I do not like that one bit considering the one closest to Ukrainian border is literally 8 km from my house.
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Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.
 
Varun said:
Sanctions that cripple the economy of a nuke powered country? Again, I'm not saying they should be removed or that it won't cripple Russia. They will and that's the precise reason I think they'll be eventually and gradually removed.

Also, it's not like they'll suddenly announce sanctions are off. Once putin has what he wants, they'll sell a compromise saying Russia have agreed to stop blah blah in return for sanction xyz being removed while others stay for the foreseeable future. Then they get taken off as well gradually.

When he's essentially wiping out a country threatening nukes to anyone who interefers he'll get the sanctions that really hurt taken off once he's done. Because hey, nukes.
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I honestly don't know what stops him from taking Poland to be honest, because nukes. At some point the world will have to take the risk with that unfortunately. I don't even know how this can be solved because it's become evident that he is a) going to wave that threat forever, b) NATO/US are treating this seriously (hence no direct intervention in Ukraine). It borderline feels like they are trying to do enough military wise to appease public opinion by sending weapons but just not nearly enough to piss off Vlad.
 
MackRobinson said:
Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.
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Yeah but please surrender because nukes, or whatever. It's quickly going from scary to annoying I realized.
 
Sarni said:
I honestly don't know what stops him from taking Poland to be honest, because nukes. At some point the world will have to take the risk with that unfortunately. I don't even know how this can be solved because it's become evident that he is a) going to wave that threat forever, b) NATO/US are treating this seriously (hence no direct intervention in Ukraine). It borderline feels like they are trying to do enough military wise to appease public opinion by sending weapons but just not nearly enough to piss off Vlad.
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There was never going to be direct intervention in Ukraine as a) they aren't in NATO and b) nukes.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
isn't 630 billion considering the size of Russia quite peanuts? I mean, our german federal budget for a whole year is around that size and that's always assuming most functions accordingly
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$1.4trillion is their entire GDP so $630billion is quite a lot. Their economy was shit before this.
 
Wibble said:
And you think losing so much of their wealth wouldn't help get rid of Putin?
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No. Because Russia is full of resources as is the Ukranian soil. They have China on their east to avoid full isolation. I am actually surprised that you believe that oligarchs can get rid of putin. They are his pockets/accountants. It is his money basically.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
The reply ... not what she wanted but perhaps realistic (given consequences of such actions)

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It's a very emotional moment but the Ukrainians are gonna have to realize a no-fly zone isn't happening. Putin is testing our extreme limits but they're limits for a reason. We shouldn't go over those limits.
 
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
 
Gambit said:
This also totally fecks up XI's one belt one road plans.
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speaking of Xi:

Banks drag local stocks down as Singapore imposes sanctions against Russia over Ukraine invasion

what's interesting is:

Bloomberg quoted unnamed sources saying Singapore's top three banks have stopped issuing letters of credit involving Russian energy deals amid uncertainty over the course of sanctions.
Some European banks such as ING, Rabobank, Credit Suisse and Societe Generale and two of China's largest state-owned banks - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China - have also announced a halt to commodities trade financing for Russian companies.
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There is no way the two Chinese banks can do that without Xi's approval.
 
harms said:
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
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Just another example of the great leader's restraint.
 
MackRobinson said:
Poland is a NATO nation. If Russia declares war on or attacks Poland, WW3 will happen.
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hypothetically - if trump was in power - or if he ran and won in 2024

would he commit US troops to protect a nato nation?

Part of me thinks he would just talk about a lot of nato nations had not spent their 2% so it shouldn't be up to the USA to bail them out
 
harms said:
Russia has announced upcoming air strikes on major communication points in Kyiv (urging civilians to leave near-standing houses, so humane).
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I feel the real war is just beginning now, with very little air defence or indeed a working military base to take off from this will be carnage.
 
Rightnr said:
Just another example of the great leader's restraint.
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Exactly what was done in the ME numerous times by allies. That's legitimate restraint. Example: Leaflets were dropped on Fallujah telling civilians to leave before it got utterly decimated from the air, from artillery, from everything. Putin has not even reached that level yet.
 
Sarni said:
Yeah but please surrender because nukes, or whatever. It's quickly going from scary to annoying I realized.
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I understand due to to the proximity to Ukraine and Putin's threats, but he literally risks everything (support at home, US war machine actively involved, strikes of Russian soil, etc) if he were to attack Poland. At that point he's selling out everyone in Russia.
 
Water Melon said:
No. Because Russia is full of resources as is the Ukranian soil. They have China on their east to avoid full isolation. I am actually surprised that you believe that oligarchs can get rid of putin. They are his pockets/accountants. It is his money basically.
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They can't get rid of him on their own. Just like sanctions won't get rid of him on their own. The tactic that has the best chance of getting him ousted is using a range of things including punishing the oligarchs and making Russia suffer as much as possible. If Putin is no longer of any use to the Oligarchs either in terms of further enriching themselves (and Putin) or protecting them then their fear of him may well reduce to the point where they help to overthrow him.
 
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