Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Conor said:
China are probably a bit ahead of the US on the despicable scale, I will give you that. Some of you in this thread are going on like this is a movie and it's scaremongering nonsense, fed to people by war mongering governments and institutions that are half the reason shit like this constantly happens in the world.
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Oh, I see. You have seen the light.

And you must be referring to the warmongering government of Germany.

And if you think we're deluded, look at what the Baltic States are telling you. Much the same they were saying about Russia 10 years ago, they're saying about China. China tried go threaten Lithuania because they didn't like being called out.

In 10 years, we may be discussing China in a similar way but the problem is that for willingly ignorant people they'll need another Ukraine otherwise it'd be Western propaganda all over. Maybe we should quote some posts from two weeks ago to provide some context to those that go on about impossible things that happen.
 
Livvie said:
Yes, I choose to avoid the increasing likelihood that we could cease to exist as a country. Is that really a risk worth taking when it seems likely that Putin will be removed because very few countries in the world now want to deal with Russia in any capacity and he will be seen as responsible for that, and for the collapse of the rouble
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Why do you think Putin will be removed? He wasn’t with his previous wars.

TheReligion said:
The sanctions will cripple Russia into submission or action to remove Putin

Simply aren’t sustainable for it in the medium to long term
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The question is, how long do you define medium - long term?
 
Rightnr said:
Well, my point is that I think people are vastly overestimating the chance of Putin getting removed, one way or another.

It's increasingly likely that Ukraine will fall and we'll be stuck in a new normal until Putin kicks the bucket. What if he's alive for another 10, 20 years?

We'll have whole generations growing with this maniac threatening a whole continent.

Now watching Zelensky and BBC seem to have got a bloke off the street to translate. Seriously, I appreciate the emotion but come on...
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There's very little chance of him being alive in 5 let alone 10-20. But there's no guarantee his successors are not equally insane.
 
Varun said:
Sanctions will almost certainly be eased even if Ukraine falls. Putin's entire war is based on 'the west will not end the world over Ukraine'. Like feck he's in any doubt that the sanctions that actually hit will be removed if he threatens again.

Shite as it is, even if he takes Ukraine, the only ones who'll suffer after it are the Ukrainians. Rest of the world will move on.
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It would be electoral suicide for every EU government if they try to ease or remove the sanctions.
 
TheReligion said:
Sanctions won’t end anytime soon and they will get worse for Russia before better
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Once Putin gets what he wants, he'll come to the negotiations table and the west will ease off the sanctions gradually. Of course it'll be handled with the necessary optics but it'll happen.

If you are letting Ukrainians die because you're scared Putin will go nuclear, you'll 100% let Russians live for the same reason.
 
Revan said:
Failing to understand what is the point of Russia asking the US to withdraw their nuclear arsenal from Europe. While this made sense in the sixties, with ICBMs and SCBMs, what does it change? The US has the capability of throwing thousand of nuclear weapons from the US and oceans, so why it is important that they remove them from Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.

Or could it be that Russia really thinks that they can block ICBMs/SCBMs?
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Probably more Putin needs a ‘win’ and he can spin it that way.
 
Sarni said:
There's very little chance of him being alive in 5 let alone 10-20. But there's no guarantee his successors are not equally insane.
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I tend to agree but having policy based on hopes is not a good strategy.

Also, even if the next guy is the same except for military policy, I don't see things going back to the previous status quo. We've seen a tectonic shift over the past week.

It's a bit like Brexit, you won't get the same great terms once you have left once. There'll be a negotiation.
 
Varun said:
Once Putin gets what he wants, he'll come to the negotiations table and the west will ease off the sanctions gradually. Of course it'll be handled with the necessary optics but it'll happen.

If you are letting Ukrainians die because you're scared Putin will go nuclear, you'll 100% let Russians live for the same reason.
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@Suv666

To add to this, needs must really when it comes to selling something to the average Joe. If Ukrainians dying isn't worth the nuke threat can be sold, this is much easier because it's the Russian civilians at stake.

As i said, it'll be done with the right optics but there's very little chance Russians are thrown to the dogs long term once Putin has what he wants and comes to the negotiations table. Push comes to shove, he'll threaten attacking another nation or nukes again
 
Rightnr said:
Oh, I see. You have seen the light.

And you must be referring to the warmongering government of Germany.

And if you think we're deluded, look at what the Baltic States are telling you. Much the same they were saying about Russia 10 years ago, they're saying about China. China tried go threaten Lithuania because they didn't like being called out.

In 10 years, we may be discussing China in a similar way but the problem is that for willingly ignorant people they'll need another Ukraine otherwise it'd be Western propaganda all over. Maybe we should quote some posts from two weeks ago to provide some context to those that go on about impossible things that happen.
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If Putin has agreed his move with Xi, after years and years spent dividing the Western democracies from within (through extensive disinformation acts and by funding puppet politicians to sow discord), we may well have China moving to Taiwan in a few weeks or months as a double whammy to NATO / US UK / EU… a concerted way to redefine the geopolitical spheres of influence for the years to come. Are we expecting NATO to nuke both, in case?
 
Seriously if Putin really wins politically in this war, then I give up.

Next time Putin invades again (probably Baltics), i'll just continue eating my smashed avoacado on toast because I know we'll do feck all anyway.
 
IWat said:
A bit? They're carrying out what if it isn't already, comes very close to being a genocide against the Uyghurs.
It's a state where restrictions on freedom of speech make Putin look like a cuddly bear.
I'd get thrown in prison for posting this from China on a Chinese website.
And it's going to be a military superpower, if it isn't already.

I don't want to de-rail the thread so I will stop here on China. But a bit? Come on.
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I was being facetious, my point is that everyone's 'enemy' is evil and does despicable things, you can imagine what the Chinese public is told about the US government. All major governments are varying degrees of evil to a point(places like China and Russia clearly worse than most, I don't think that even needs saying), but this whole notion of Russia must be stopped in Ukraine by any means necessary or else it will lead to the end of western civilisation is simply crazy, it's like something from a propaganda poster 100 years ago.
 
LilyWhiteSpur said:
I’d say it’s more months, while there economy took a massive hit, There is trade opportunities in the Middle East and Asia. We are only really 5 days into this.
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Yeah it depends on the company. Ones with higher levels of exports and already precarious financial positions will be the 1st dominos.

Most companies want to maximise their trade, if it was that easy for them to mob up a load more business in the ME and Asia, they'd have already done it I hope.
 
The majority
Varun said:
Once Putin gets what he wants, he'll come to the negotiations table and the west will ease off the sanctions gradually. Of course it'll be handled with the necessary optics but it'll happen.

If you are letting Ukrainians die because you're scared Putin will go nuclear, you'll 100% let Russians live for the same reason.
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Sanctions will be softened significantly. Russian economy is pretty dead, and in the next couple of weeks it will go kaboom. By that time Zelenskyy could be dead already and Ukraine will be "demilitarized". When it gets worse Russia will play natural gas and wheat cards. Then they will start talking about Russia's citizens suffering because of their dictator and some of the sanctions will be lifted. The botox face will remain in charge of Russia.
 
Sarni said:
There's very little chance of him being alive in 5 let alone 10-20. But there's no guarantee his successors are not equally insane.
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Come on. He will be 73 in 5 years. More likely than not, he will be alive.
 
Interval said:
Gifting stuff like airplanes to Ukraine is literally borderline declaring war yourself. Giving weapons is treading close enough but seriously, part of the effort should also be to deescalate.

you’ll be giving the mad man a reason on a plate to go legitimise his actions against everyone.
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War is already happening now and will escalate further soon.

Varun said:
Once Putin gets what he wants, he'll come to the negotiations table and the west will ease off the sanctions gradually. Of course it'll be handled with the necessary optics but it'll happen.

If you are letting Ukrainians die because you're scared Putin will go nuclear, you'll 100% let Russians live for the same reason.
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The sanction will remain in place indefinitely to weaken Putin at home , which is why they were enacted in the first place.
 
Mihai said:
Through molotovs from Polish migs
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The Ukrainian airforce is tiny, and would need a substantial number to even bother trying to up against Russia’s Air Force. I’d say Ukrane will keep any aircraft they receive for defence rather than offence.
 
spiriticon said:
Seriously if Putin really wins politically in this war, then I give up.

Next time Putin invades again (probably Baltics), i'll just continue eating my smashed avoacado on toast because I know we'll do feck all anyway.
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Baltics are NATO though.
 
Conor said:
I was being facetious, my point is that everyone's 'enemy' is evil and does despicable things, you can imagine what the Chinese public is told about the US government. All major governments are varying degrees of evil to a point(places like China and Russia clearly worse than most, I don't think that even needs saying), but this whole notion of Russia must be stopped in Ukraine by any means necessary or else it will lead to the end of western civilisation is simply crazy, it's like something from a propaganda poster 100 years ago.
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Facetious my ar*e, at this stage: if you are not writing from Mars right now, you are clearly taking a part… which is perfectly legit, mind, whichever it is… yet a bit obnoxious over here at such a critical time for Ukraine first, for Europe later.
 
Raoul said:
War is already happening now and will escalate further soon.



The sanction will remain in place indefinitely to weaken Putin at home , which is why they were enacted in the first place.
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I disagree for the reasons I mentioned but yeah, let's see how it pans out.
 
Raoul said:
The sanction will remain in place indefinitely to weaken Putin at home , which is why they were enacted in the first place.
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That worked very well with Castro in Cuba, Chavez/Maduro in Venezuela, Kim in Korea, Khamenei in Iran and Sadam in Iraq.

They also did not have nukes. Well, Kim has some but not many and they are small.
 
Adamsk7 said:
It’s depressing. I’ve unfortunately spiralled in to reading about this constantly and now I’m doing things like checking for bunkers in my immediate area or even more drastic, looking to leave the UK immediately. I work from home, as does my wife, so a move to somewhere remote for a couple of months is just about within possibility.

I know the above is absolutely stupid but thought I’d post it for anyone else going through the same so you know you’re not alone.
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You're looking to leave the UK? A tad dramatic don't you think? The UK is under no threat whatsoever from Putin.
 
Conor said:
So we are essentially supposed to progress towards nuclear holocaust to try and convince China not to try and take back Taiwan? I'm pretty sure they will do that either way, if they really want to. People genuinely seem to forget this isn't the 1940s anymore. This whole 'we will fight them on the beaches' bravado doesn't really stand the test of time when everyone has nukes.
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We're progressing toward a conflict either way. Putin has gotten away with infiltrating our democratic systems, assassinating people on our grounds with chemical weapons, taking pieces of various countries and now he's razing Ukraine for daring to reach out to West. Appeasement has clearly failed and the Finns apparently reconsidering Nato membership as well as Germany re-arming itself is already proof that this realization has made it into policy. If the West doesn't put up a firm reaction now, that puts him into place at least to some degree, Putin will just come back for more later. I'm not saying that it has to be full on war, but it can't be that the West cowers before him every time he say nuclear either.
 
Revan said:
That worked very well with Castro in Cuba, Chavez/Maduro in Venezuela, Kim in Korea, Khamenei in Iran and Sadam in Iraq.

They also did not have nukes. Well, Kim has some but not many and they are small.
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Not sure how either of these are comparable to Russia
 
sullydnl said:
Given the understandable reluctance to directly intervene militarily, I guess the question for anyone who wants to see this end with Putin's downfall is what it will take in terms of sanctions or Russian casualties (either as a result of this invasion or insurgency) for a move against Putin from within Russia to be successful. And would the west have the appetite to maintain the sanctions neccessary to force that for long enough, even after Ukraine is taken.
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Probably another bloody revolution is needed, with somebody from the inside creating a coalition that people can get behind. Seems unlikely though, as he's got opposition already jailed or dead, and common folk who are not afraid to speak out, quickly put down. Police is behind him and not afraid to get their hands dirty.
 
VorZakone said:
Baltics are NATO though.
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Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.

Bear in mind also, if Putin survives this, he will 100 percent sanction proof his economy for the future.
 
do.ob said:
We're progressing toward a conflict either way. Putin has gotten away with infiltrating our democratic systems, assassinating people on our grounds with chemical weapons, taking pieces of various countries and now he's razing Ukraine for daring to reach out to West. Appeasement has clearly failed and the Finns apparently reconsidering Nato membership as well as Germany re-arming itself is already proof that this realization has made it into policy. If the West doesn't put up a firm reaction now, that puts him into place at least to some degree, Putin will just come back for more later. I'm not saying that it has to be full on war, but it can't be that the West cowers before him every time he say nuclear either.
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There is a difference between what you suggest, and what some in this thread are baying for.
 
Water Melon said:
The majority

Sanctions will be softened significantly. Russian economy is pretty dead, and in the next couple of weeks it will go kaboom. By that time Zelenskyy could be dead already and Ukraine will be "demilitarized". When it gets worse Russia will play natural gas and wheat cards. Then they will start talking about Russia's citizens suffering because of their dictator and some of the sanctions will be lifted. The botox face will remain in charge of Russia.
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The sanctions will continue. Russia for all its bluster is economically less important now than it even was before. The gas and energy hits will be dealt with. Its actually incredible to me how much Putin has literally fecked up here. He's undone over 20 years of work in the space of 4 days.
 
I actually think instead of more sanctions on normal Russians all resources and more importantly political will should be directed towards uncovering and pulverising the Putin cabal's overseas assets and cash. Make them think they'll be eating borscht and going to Sochi on holiday in their fecking fishing boats unless they remove this guy.
 
spiriticon said:
Everyone is banking on NATO to protect them. We all seem so scared of nuclear war I now seriously doubt whether NATO would even retaliate if it happens.

We are probably more willing to give up the Baltics or Poland than risk nuclear war with Russia.
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Nonsense. Nobody will allow Russia to bully the world on the threat of nuclear war.

The USA didn't back down during the Cuban missile crisis at a time when the USSR were much stronger than today's Russia.
 
Varun said:
I disagree for the reasons I mentioned but yeah, let's see how it pans out.
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The initial threat of sanctions may have been rooted in a carrots and sticks approach to influence Putin’s calculus on the cost of invading. Now that he’s done so, they are a weapon to keep the pressure on him at home to force a regime change without fighting. Removing them would be viewed as a reward for having invaded and annexed Ukraine and would serve as a blueprint for his future invasion plans of other countries.
 
Gambit said:
The sanctions will continue. Russia for all its bluster is economically less important now than it even was before. The gas and energy hits will be dealt with. Its actually incredible to me how much Putin has literally fecked up here. He's undone over 20 years of work in the space of 4 days.
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I am ready to bet some of the sanctions will be lifted even if current Ukraine falls and have a puppet ruler.
 
Conor said:
There is a difference between what you suggest, and what some in this thread are baying for.
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You had no response to my points but now you're spreading peace and 'common sense' without confrontation.

Truth may be uncomfortable but the price is always paid in the end.
 
So regarding the whole nuclear situation. It appears Putin has these supersonic missiles against which conventional missile defense systems appear to be ineffective. He also specifically referred to them multiple times ("we're ahead of the rest technologically in certain things" and "you won't even have enough time to evoke article 5"). They seem to have a limited range (~1000 km) so it is primarily Europe which is in danger of them.

But using them would pretty much be suicide. Because if he attacks then it has to be with severity that takes us out completely - but this would probably mean a scale of nuclear attack that had severe consequences of Russia's habitability, too, I reckon? And even if he did there would still be the revenge of the US as well as those of the UK submarines etc?

Surely that's no logical step to make at any point in time, regardless of how grim things look for him. He'd only use it if he completely lost it and is cornered without an exit. We're still far away from that and if it came thus far, the question remains if he'd be out of office at this stage or facing revolts.

It might also be the most senseful strategy to "deescelate" by prolonging events, avoiding interventions that might push him over the edge and cause impulsive reactions but rather support Ukraine in a way that they can hold onto their areas or go into a guerilla fight while letting the sanctions do their work. That being said, the West right now don't seem to afraid of the nuclear threat given that they support Ukraine with an arsenal of weapons that was - at least for me - not imaginable at the beginning of all this. Is this deseparation or calling a bluff?

It also seems that a big issue is that Putin as an individual is completely isolated in is echo chamber, surrounded by people who are too afraid to speak up to him. If we get more and more to do so, it might have an effect on him. What's missing in all of this is a way out for him without losing face.
 
Water Melon said:
I am ready to bet some of the sanctions will be lifted even if current Ukraine falls and have a puppet ruler.
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I believe Kyiv will fall. I also think Zelensky life is in serious danger, but killing him will create an incredible Martyr and we've all seen the will of the Ukranian people. I don't think any puppet government will ever be accepted. This will go on for years and the west will keep the western region armed and separate. It wouldn't surprise me the longer it goes on we will see China and the west coming together more as economic world trade is far to important to both and this is would be a great way for China's soft power plans to further and remove some of the anti china sentiment in the western world.
 
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