Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Is something happening in Kyiv or are we all just waiting for the Russians to finish having their smokes?
 
Infra-red said:
It seems that the predictions of most independent analysts in the last few days, are proving to be correct.

After initially overstretching themselves with unsupported runs from small units deep into Ukrainian territory, the Russians have now regrouped, resupplyied and are playing to their greatest strength - their artillery.

The Ukrainian defiance in the face of the early Russian attacks was admirable and there's no doubt that Putin massively underestimated their fighting ability and their resolve. But no amount of Ukrainian resolve is going to be able to withstand the barrage of ballistic missiles and artillery shells that the Russians are going to rain down on the country in the next few days (nevermind the 40-mile long column of armour that will shortly encircle Kiev).

I fear that by the latter part of this week, we might be in "surrender or die" territory for President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian forces - although, as always with this type of warfare, the real penalty will be paid by the civilian population.
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They may also try to 'starve' the residents of Kviv by stopping any lorries from getting into the city.

That could result in a real humanitarian crisis forcing food and aid to be supplied by helicopters.
 
Zlatattack said:
NATO ought to send you guys a loaf of F-16's to replace the Mig-29's you've given away. It should be done immediately. They should also deploy some top line fighter aircraft over Poland to defend your airspace - having said that, looking at the shit performance of the Russian airforce, you'll be fine.
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You cant go to a new plane let alone a completely different platform in a year and you are talking about days. Its unfeasible. I dont think the Poles are giving their Migs either.
 
sglowrider said:
Its a funny series of convos the past four-five days. Both of us are accusing each other of being suckers to our respective propaganda! My previous experience of this are with Trumpists.

Eventually, you give up and not bother having any discussions other than asking the time or matters of such trivialities. At some point the world will grind to a halt.
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No wonder you had similar experiences with Trumpists. The source is all the same - Russian propaganda to dumb and/or disillusioned people.
 
Sarni said:
Our forces giving up half of our combat planes and openly letting them operate out of Poland is just recipe for disaster. We are going to be left with almost no combat planes. Maybe I am overreacting but this sounds just dumb.
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NATO are/will increase the number of fighter jets from member countries to ensure you have sufficient jets to maintain your strength.
 
Water Melon said:
Ukraine have claimed that thermobaric weapons have already been used against them, right?
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They did yesterday but today it's on BBC and much bigger audience.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian journalist is ripping Boris a new one
 
Surely the West lost its survival instinct while becoming flooded with idiotic frivolities and division… yet it seems it is not too late to wake up, regroup and treat life a bit more seriously. People calling Putin a boomer really live in a pampered bubble, though. He’s just an enemy, at large, with whom we needed to co-exist and now contain. It will not be pretty, for many in our shores.
 
Yeah I'm sure the EU and NATO will discuss replacements for any planes used, if any.

But I think the only way we go in without being attacked is if there is a unprecedented humanitarian disaster or the UN security council allows us to intervene.
 
Water Melon said:
West is already intervening. I am just really surprised that people areshit scared to be seeing their fighter aircrafts being given to Ukranian pilots to fight against cnut who has declared a war against pretty much powerless country. The cnut who if takes over Ukraine will be right next to these people's doors.
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If they do give them those fighters it will be an open declaration of war from NATO/EU.

Sactions/bleeding the Russian economy dry are better measures than corner Putin to retaliate to an extend that he can possibly use nukes..
 
Zlatattack said:
isn't the F-35 a flop? Would have been better off with the latest generation Eurofighter i reckon.

It'll still be better than anything the Russians have. Their airforce is a shambles, their so called military might has been dangerously exposed.
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The F35 and EF Typhoon carry out different roles. Typhoon is far better at air to air.
While the F35 is nothing like as good at that, it is better at ground attack.
 
Bepi said:
Surely the West lost its survival instinct while becoming flooded with idiotic frivolities and division… yet it seems it is not too late to wake up, regroup and treat life a bit more seriously. People calling Putin a boomer really live in a pampered bubble, though. He’s just an enemy, at large, with whom we needed to co-exist and now contain. It will not be pretty, for many in our shores.
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What kind of frivolities and division are you thinking of?
 
Bepi said:
Surely the West lost its survival instinct while becoming flooded with idiotic frivolities and division… yet it seems it is not too late to wake up, regroup and treat life a bit more seriously. People calling Putin a boomer really live in a pampered bubble, though. He’s just an enemy, at large, with whom we needed to co-exist and now contain. It will not be pretty, for many in our shores.
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Putin is definitely a boomer.

The guy has no idea about the modern world, no different to a typical 70-year-old grandpa. His world view and mindset are consistent with this way of life. But that's also what makes him dangerous.

Xi, on the other hand, is a much more sophisticated enemy but that's for another day.
 
It seems we are not sending planes and definitely not allowing them to be operated out of Poland facilities.
 
Enigma_87 said:
If they do give them those fighters it will be an open declaration of war from NATO/EU.

Sactions/bleeding the Russian economy dry are better measures than corner Putin to retaliate to an extend that he can possibly use nukes..
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They have given them lethal weapons. Those weapons are killing Russian soldiers. They are not used on Russian territory, but they are killing Russian soldiers. Sanctions/bleeding Russian economy will not happen as soon as Putin installs his puppet ruler in Ukraine. It will be a Ukraine under a new ruler, and believe it or not, there will be even elections held and the puppet will win.
 
Water Melon said:
So you ought to be sh!t scared that your aircrafts flown by Ukranian soldiers could be used against the agressor, who, in case of victory, will be sitting next to your door, with nukes right next to him?
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Presumably you've thought this through so how many millions dead is acceptable in WW3 to defend Ukraine? 30? 50? 100?

We didn't jump straight into WW2 when Japan invaded China or when Germany took Austria. It took further expansion and the camps.

Russia aren't stupid enough to take on a NATO country. If they did it would inevitably end up with them losing or nuclear annihilation.
 
Bepi said:
Surely the West lost its survival instinct while becoming flooded with idiotic frivolities and division… yet it seems it is not too late to wake up, regroup and treat life a bit more seriously. People calling Putin a boomer really live in a pampered bubble, though. He’s just an enemy, at large, with whom we needed to co-exist and now contain. It will not be pretty, for many in our shores.
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I think what much of Kasparov has been writing over the last decade is correct. You can keep delaying and delaying the ultimate confrontation with Putin, but each time you do and back down, the greater pain and cost you will bear next time he reaches outside of Russia. I don't see how this can conclude. How does the West possibly accept Russia back with Putin remaining as a peacetime leader again? The EU and individual European countries have ripped up their decades-long policy to combat this threat. Germany is now taking their armament and defence policy seriously again. Orban's Hungary are turning their backs on Russia and championing Ukraine's EU integration. Finland, Sweden and Switzerland are giving up pretences of neutrality bit by bit.
 
B20 said:
The opposite really. People are dying in an unjust war. That's the reality you choose to avoid.
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Yes, I choose to avoid the increasing likelihood that we could cease to exist as a country. Is that really a risk worth taking when it seems likely that Putin will be removed because very few countries in the world now want to deal with Russia in any capacity and he will be seen as responsible for that, and for the collapse of the rouble
 
Smores said:
Presumably you've thought this through so how many millions dead is acceptable in WW3 to defend Ukraine? 30? 50? 100?

We didn't jump straight into WW2 when Japan invaded China or when Germany took Austria. It took further expansion and the camps.

Russia aren't stupid enough to take on a NATO country. If they did it would inevitably end up with them losing or nuclear annihilation.
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You've already seen Syria. Now Ukraine. What are you going to appease next?
 
Water Melon said:
They have given them lethal weapons. Those weapons are killing Russian soldiers. They are not used on Russian territory, but they are killing Russian soldiers. Sanctions/bleeding Russian economy will not happen as soon as Putin installs his puppet ruler in Ukraine. It will be a Ukraine under a new ruler, and believe it or not, there will be even elections held and the puppet will win.
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Which is also borderline sensitive subject already.. Besides giving them planes that they don't know how to operate won't help much.
 
Livvie said:
Yes, I choose to avoid the increasing likelihood that we could cease to exist as a country. Is that really a risk worth taking when it seems likely that Putin will be removed because very few countries in the world now want to deal with Russia in any capacity and he will be seen as responsible for that, and for the collapse of the rouble
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Putin will be removed? News to me.
 
Smores said:
Presumably you've thought this through so how many millions dead is acceptable in WW3 to defend Ukraine? 30? 50? 100?

We didn't jump straight into WW2 when Japan invaded China or when Germany took Austria. It took further expansion and the camps.

Russia aren't stupid enough to take on a NATO country. If they did it would inevitably end up with them losing or nuclear annihilation.
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That's is exactly why WW II lasted so long. And if not for USSR and allies who joined in and 30-40 million people dying there would be a very different Europe now.

I have no doubt that if Ukraine are not helped significantly, we will see a new Ukraine pretty soon. A ruler of this country will be the Botox face's puppet. That time around you will have a much more real threat. Moreoever, you will be fully dependent on Russia's gas and wheat. Sanctions would be gradually lifted too, cause make no mistake, when people in Russia start to starve the botox face will use the nuke card again.
 
Rightnr said:
Putin is definitely a boomer.

The guy has no idea about the modern world, no different to a typical 70-year-old grandpa. His world view and mindset are consistent with this way of life. But that's also what makes him dangerous.

Xi, on the other hand, is a much more sophisticated enemy but that's for another day.
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He is a tsar, in his bubble, and does give a feck about most of what we find relevant here. It is the same for 3/4 of the inhabited planet, though, whose main worries is to survive: first world problems, they say, about most we spend our days upon… and that’s where we are now, with a cold, cold wolf preying a sheep at our borders (which is not a racist way to say that Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen are less important, just a deluded way to deny our long lasting stupidity). I mean, we can hope that our collective intelligence (and solidarity, at crucial times), in spite of too many blunders from single leaders here and there (often funded directly and indirectly by Russia, to be fair), is enough to stay united and keep going.
 
If Putin wins the war and is not removed and we go "Meh, back to normal life", we are fecked. It allows China and North Korea to see that what Russia is doing is possible, that the 'West' is weak, afraid of hardship, and will conform to their will in time to come.

Boris wasn't joking when he said Putin must fail. He must or it is an existential threat to our governments.
 
TMDaines said:
You've already seen Syria. Now Ukraine. What are you going to appease next?
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Childish response. Thankfully the western government aren't as childish as some of you and are actually being balanced with their actions.
 
Buster15 said:
The F35 and EF Typhoon carry out different roles. Typhoon is far better at air to air.
While the F35 is nothing like as good at that, it is better at ground attack.
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Yeah, they carry out different roles and in fairness to the F-35, it's really not priced that badly in comparison... The F-22 on the other hand...
 
Gambit said:
Regardless, this has brought forward the end of Putin. I can't see anyway out of it for him.
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There is a much higher possibility of seeing Ukraine become putin's vassal state rather than the end of putin, if Zelenskyy is dead.
 
the_cliff said:
I'm a bit sceptical in terms of the sanctions hurting Russia tbh.

From what I'm hearing it looks like Russian Gas is still being pumped to the EU and is still being paid for ?

Is that not possible if being removed from swift ?
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botond said:
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Mike Smalling said:


This is no longer in the consideration phase - they have just publicly announced that they are suspending all container shipments to and from Russia. Couldn't find an updated news story in English though.

Not sure how big a share of Russia's import and export that is, but it must be a huge blow for their economy. Most likely other shipping companies will follow suit.

I don't think Putin has any idea what he has actually done. More and more sanctions from governments and companies will follow. The economy will be in ruins very shortly.
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The sanctions will cripple Russia into submission or action to remove Putin

Simply aren’t sustainable for it in the medium to long term
 
sglowrider said:
Its a funny series of convos the past four-five days. Both of us are accusing each other of being suckers to our respective propaganda! My previous experience of this are with Trumpists.

Eventually, you give up and not bother having any discussions other than asking the time or matters of such trivialities. At some point the world will grind to a halt.
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I think that's the exact idea. Public trust degraded to the point where people can't see good from bad, right from wrong, honest from dishonest. It's divide and conquer tactics.
 
Water Melon said:
That's is exactly why WW II lasted so long. And if not for USSR and allies who joined in and 30-40 million people dying there would be a very different Europe now.

I have no doubt that if Ukraine are not helped significantly, we will see a new Ukraine pretty soon. A ruler of this country will be the Botox face's puppet. That time around you will have a much more real threat. Moreoever, you will be fully dependent on Russia's gas and wheat. Sanctions would be gradually lifted too, cause make no mistake, when people in Russia start to starve the botox face will use the nuke card again.
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I’m baffled people don’t get that, if we retreat now in few years it will be Poland/Baltics, and it will be much harder because you’ll now be bordering with Russia instead of Ukraine.
 
Smores said:
Presumably you've thought this through so how many millions dead is acceptable in WW3 to defend Ukraine? 30? 50? 100?

We didn't jump straight into WW2 when Japan invaded China or when Germany took Austria. It took further expansion and the camps.

Russia aren't stupid enough to take on a NATO country. If they did it would inevitably end up with them losing or nuclear annihilation.
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And how did that turn out?
 
Water Melon said:
There is a much higher possibility of seeing Ukraine become putin's vassal state rather than the end of putin, if Zelenskyy is dead.
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If it does, then the sanctions will continue. The world order will move on without Russia being a factor. It's not just the west that's pissed with them.
 
TMDaines said:
It's one of these two outcomes increasingly:

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Well, my point is that I think people are vastly overestimating the chance of Putin getting removed, one way or another.

It's increasingly likely that Ukraine will fall and we'll be stuck in a new normal until Putin kicks the bucket. What if he's alive for another 10, 20 years?

We'll have whole generations growing with this maniac threatening a whole continent.

Now watching Zelensky and BBC seem to have got a bloke off the street to translate. Seriously, I appreciate the emotion but come on...
 
Smores said:
Childish response. Thankfully the western government aren't as childish as some of you and are actually being balanced with their actions.
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Of course they are. They were balanced during the Crimea, LNP and DNP annexations. They will be maintaining the same balance once Ukraine inevitably falls. Only this time around everything will be swept under the carpet, because Europe will be fully dependent on wheat and natural gas. I can guarantee that the botox face will use the nuke card again if people in Russia start to starve. What will thewest do? I guarantee that they will soften the sanctions a lot.
 
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