We had calls with the BOE at the weekend about the potential for wide-scale attacks on UK banks. It's scary stuff.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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We had calls with the BOE at the weekend about the potential for wide-scale attacks on UK banks. It's scary stuff.
Yeah with the force they are going in it’s very likely Kyiv will be taken. I am still of the opinion there is absolutely no way for Russia to hold the country though, not with the level of resistance Ukrainians have shown so far. It’s scary to think how many of them will sacrifice their lives.
"Taken" is a pretty subjective term. If they manage to get into the city, they would still need to fend off a massive insurgency, which will bog them down for months or years.
Years easily. It’s a 44 million country and you can’t just claim it as yours in 2022. It can’t work. These people will never consider themselves Russian, they will not accept a pro-Russian government and they will resist forever. Their lives will be extremely miserable for a long time though.
Yeah, they should not be staying in any one place for any real period of time having engaged the enemy. Which they seem to be doing a good job of.
Mines/IEDs is a good shout. Anything to slow them down and make this drag out.
yeah this is true, but I guess they'll consider it 'taken'.
What's Putin's plan to control Ukraine after this? Military occupation? He can't install a puppet. They'd be gone as quickly as they came in.
Don't want to overpromote but watching this is fascinating.
Putin sounds like the quintessential Eastern European boomer. Doesn't use the internet, his English is decent but not great and he doesn't have a phone.
One example they gave is if a video on YouTube slating him goes viral, he'd have images of the video printed out for him.
This is the kind of stuff that makes me think that generation (or the politicians from it) will end us all before they go to the grave.
He probably hasn't thought that far since he previously thought he could stroll in and take over without any problems. He won't be able to do much once he wins a few cities, since by then, the sanctions will lacerate Russia from within. I still don't see anyway out for him given that the price of sanctions will be much higher than the perceived glory of clumsily gaining control of parts of a neighboring country.
Kofman said in a long series of tweets that Putin did not want to hammer Ukraine in order not to alienate both populations, which are pretty much intertwined. Yet, he is an impatient wolf now, hunting for blood. There will be a last gasp opportunity for a 2nd round of talks to avoid a pretty ugly siege, much probably… and the call would be on Zelensky, in case, with almost no leverage to buy more time.
Mig-29s on their way? Could they get them there/in the air in 6-12 hours?
The weak spot about any convoy is all bunched up… great target for air attack IF you get past the air defence.
I don't think Putin is incentivized to do any talking right now. At this point, he is in a race against time to take over as many large cities as possible, kill Zelenskyy and Ukrainian leaders, and claim sort of victory before the sanctions put excruciating pressure on him at home and destabilize his regime from within.
He's not gonna occupy Ukraine, he'll take or threaten to take Kiev and will occupy/directly control Eastern Ukraine with reasonable popular support. If Western parts of Ukraine want to follow the government approved by Russia in Kiev, fine for Putin, if they decide not to they will have go for autonomy and establish another 'temporary' capitol in Lviv for example, and that will create a new de facto situation beneficial for Putin as he's only really after the Eastern part.
Everybody is talking about Kyiv right now, but Russia has been advancing steadily in the South and the land-bridge to Crimea is almost already secured. The whole shore East to Crimea is now in Russia's hands except Mariupol which is on the verge of being completely besieged deep in Russian controlled territory, and that won't be good news for the resilient Azov battalion there.
I would just be amazed if they don't have Buk launchers and mobile radar mixed in there. Although based on some of the things they've done so far...
Not my area of expertise, but I reckon they'd have to come in super low, use any terrain as much as they can, get the weapons off and then I just don't think they get away more often than not. Depends on the quantity of aircraft but you're probably only going to get away with it once by catching them by surprise, and I just don't know if they could do enough damage to really make any kind of dent. Highway of Hell for example was hours of passes rather than 5 minutes or whatever TV etc portrays. They'd need 100's of sorties to deal with a convoy that big.
They're definitely vulnerable and this doesn't look like a good way to conduct an offensive. 60+ kilometres of forces lining up in one long line is nuts, forget air forces, they could easily get flanked and obstructed. This could easily end in a disaster for Putin.
It's all just a bad dream isn't it? It has to be.
The lines between satire and reality have become so blurred. It's truly terrifying.
I would like to know what the Ukrainian military leadership is thinking seeing such a convoy. It is impossible that its length does not affect morale.
Will they wait until they are near the city so they are more vulnerable. Fighting building by building or on the contrary the main forces will retreat
Do they have units in the west of the country ready to launch some sort of counterattack south of Kiev to avoid being pocketed?. All those weapons that they are receiving will already immediately make a difference?
Will they wait until they are near the city so they are more vulnerable. Fighting building by building or on the contrary the main forces will retreat
Do they have units in the west of the country ready to launch some sort of counterattack south of Kiev to avoid being pocketed?. All those weapons that they are receiving will already immediately make a difference?
It's hard to tell if it's confidence or arrogance. In fairness, the allies did very similar in 2003, because they knew they could e.g. https://eu.providencejournal.com/picture-gallery/news/2018/03/20/gallery-the-iraq-war/737970007/
Liz truss has less brains than half a bag of flour, it's not long ago the Russians were laughing at her.
They're full of shit and she's a total bellend.
Yep, these current negotiations are likely just a sham for Putin to buy time to reposition forces and logistics. There has been a clear slowdown in operational pace from the Russians today. Hopefully the UKR military will be ready for a likely new approach.
Hopefully Putin will be long gone and forgotten about by the time Trump attempts to be elected in 2024. Although feck knows who might replace him.
It's pretty surreal seeing former officials like this ex US ambassador to Russia openly pleading Russians to get out. Incredible times.
A key difference is that the allies lined up their vehicles like that outside of Iraq, not inside.
I know. It’s just… goddamn that road is a mouthwateringly target rich environment
Ukraine should be much better than Saddam in 2003, much much better. For starters they have a much more advanced weapons and they have the full support of NATO, plus their army has been fighting for 8 years, so it has a good fighting experience. Add to that, this column is inside (the village and cities of) Ukraine. This is definitely a big gamble and the odds don't even look in Putin's favor to be honest.
True, but it was in the range of Scuds and any piece of junk the Iraqi's could potentially get off the ground.
I don't think Russia see Ukraine as a realistic threat to it or they are willing to take certain losses to it. Or they're just completely inept. Probably the latter.
Posting this again if you’re wondering how the war might go once the Russians actually get into major cities
https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/
Here’s an aggregate article drawing on lessons from many of the case studies
https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-...ics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/
https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/
Here’s an aggregate article drawing on lessons from many of the case studies
https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-...ics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/
As expected, Zelensky's call to join the EU met mainly warm welcome from the Eastern (less rich) countries in the EU...
On the other hand, Germany had a different tone:
Germany might again get criticized for this position, but it's the sensible position to take for the EU.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-eu-cou...to-fast-track-membership-talks-211832800.html
On the other hand, Germany had a different tone:
Germany might again get criticized for this position, but it's the sensible position to take for the EU.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-eu-cou...to-fast-track-membership-talks-211832800.html
I didn't say 'objective'. I'm saying the Russian side is mostly or fully state controlled, i.e. not independent. Furthermore, they are controlled by the state in a much more direct way than for example the BBC or NRK. Going "both sides are equally bad" is reductive and unhelpful.
Saying you've heard more wrong things from "Ukraine's side" is very misleading, given Ukraine has 100x the support, and thus many more uninformed people online. And it doesn't help that your examples of 'wrong things' are partly basically memes upvoted on Reddit or Twitter, not actual, significant content. You might as well put the 'Steven Seagal is with Russian special forces' thing in the Ukraine wrong column. One valid example you have was that of the 'Russian tank' which was neither a tank nor Russian, but you missed that it was fairly early on identified as a panicked driver trying to find his unit and appearing to be engaged. Not, as you suggested, someone who deliberately drove over a civilian to enforce a curfew (which I don't believe had even been expanded yet). That suggests to me that you may be overestimating the misinformation from the Ukrainian side and underestimating that from the Russians.
Misinformation such as the 'tank' is a real issue, though, I very much agree with that. That one is made worse by the fact that, as I mentioned, it was 'solved' early on, but another story gained traction on Reddit. Reddit is an obviously terrible place to get your information, but sadly many people do. Stuff like this thread is vastly preferable.
This article entails as detailed of an analysis as anyone can provide as to where things are headed: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2022 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
There are reasons unfortunately to be skeptical that the UKR will be able to hold out, especially in an indiscriminate onslaught of artillery and airstrikes. I think the three things that UKR will need to go in their favor are 1) for Russian soldiers to continue quitting, 2) for logistics to not be able to sustain a long offensive, and 3) for the newly delivered fighters from the EU to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority/supremacy.
There are reasons unfortunately to be skeptical that the UKR will be able to hold out, especially in an indiscriminate onslaught of artillery and airstrikes. I think the three things that UKR will need to go in their favor are 1) for Russian soldiers to continue quitting, 2) for logistics to not be able to sustain a long offensive, and 3) for the newly delivered fighters from the EU to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority/supremacy.
We're not hearing a lot about what exactly is occurring in Kyiv. But I hope they're turning it into pandora's box. It does take a rapid mindset shift, the building you looked at as a bank for example your entire life now becomes a potential fortification.
And the more damage the cities take, the harder they become to control vs. a determined defense
He is as knowledgeable regarding Russia as just about anyone stateside, even if I did not always agree with him.
You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.
And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation
), I'm also talking about the news spread by the pro-Ukraine camp. Even today we had the news about the fighter jets coming to Ukraine, which also turned out to be false. I get it, it's part of the war and they're trying to raise the morale of their troops, so I don't blame them for it, just stating my observation.I presume that convoy is extremely heavily defended air wise otherwise surely it's ripe pickings for the Turkish drones or any jets available. Unless it's a trap to try and lure them in.
You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.
And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation
They're also a country under siege trying to manage 500 moving parts. Don't get me wrong, no doubt some/most is intentional. But I also reckon some is lost in translation or Chinese whispers at play etc.
Russia will also be impacted by that to a lesser extent.
Same sentiment for me. That kind of convoy would be an open air buffet for a Warthog.
You're correct that there are more pro-Ukraine news/content at the moment and I'm also more exposed to pro-Ukraine sources than pro-Russia, although I try to follow both, and that might (at least partly) explain why I'm identifying more false news in the pro-Ukraine camp, but even with that explanation it doesn't change the fact that among all the news circulating about the conflict more pro-Ukraine news are turning out to be false.
And I'm not talking only about 'memes' which are effective propaganda tools promoted even by the mainstream media (let alone Facebook, Twitter and Youtube who pretend to fight misinformation
I don't disagree in principle. While you were typing I edited my post to add some nuance at the end. I've been yelled at before for editing my posts after the fact, but I regret nothing!
Until a Buk ends up its arse. Russian anti-air would need to be taken out before an A-10 could feasibly get close.
Thanks for this video, that was a truly fascinating insight. Or at least opinion. Touched on a lot of nuances within Putin's persona that I hadn't considered.