Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

From a rando on Twitter, but appears to be a white tick name and some kind of military analyst. He quotes the Ukrainian ambassador:


Hmmm...dont think he got this right. Theres no other outlets anywhere reporting a thermobaric bomb has been used in this conflict so far. The link on his tweet is to an article from 2000.
 
Shit. We were fearing this for a few days. This really escalates things to another level. A large thermobaric bomb is near as dangerous as a small tactical nuke.
Not really. Closest to it conventionally though.
 
Pretty sure they (Russians/Assad) were using these in Syria too.

Americans also used them in Afghanistan.

The yanks used that MOAB a few years ago in Afghanistan, which I think is thermobaric? Either way was the largest non-nuke ever dropped. So there’s a precedent for it, regardless of any treaties and conventions that Putin clearly doesn’t give a feck about.
 
Perhaps I just don’t know where to look, and perhaps that level of detail just in any available, but I am personally surprised by the lack of tangible information about what is happening there. For example, obviously there is a battle for Kyiv and lots of talk about long convoys moving around. But I really don’t have a clue about the intensity or scale of the fighting at all. And little data on the scale of the Ukrainian army.
 
The yanks used that MOAB a few years ago in Afghanistan, which I think is thermobaric? Either way was the largest non-nuke ever dropped. So there’s a precedent for it, regardless of any treaties and conventions that Putin clearly doesn’t give a feck about.

Yes, Putin won't care as long as he thinks he is advancing his objectives. He is one mistake away from escalating this to another level, which could be his use of TB weapons.
 
The yanks used that MOAB a few years ago in Afghanistan, which I think is thermobaric? Either way was the largest non-nuke ever dropped. So there’s a precedent for it, regardless of any treaties and conventions that Putin clearly doesn’t give a feck about.

Ya I remember a lot of controversy around that in the US when Trump used it (against ISIS in 2017), those weapons should be outlawed.
 
Perhaps I just don’t know where to look, and perhaps that level of detail just in any available, but I am personally surprised by the lack of tangible information about what is happening there. For example, obviously there is a battle for Kyiv and lots of talk about long convoys moving around. But I really don’t have a clue about the intensity or scale of the fighting at all. And little data on the scale of the Ukrainian army.
Look, I want to emphasize a disclaimer here: if you don't have the stomach, don't watch it.

But r/combatfootage has clips of this war. And it's intense as hell. We're talking vehicles being absolutely wrecked into the ground. Modern conventional warfare is a bitch.
 
Perhaps I just don’t know where to look, and perhaps that level of detail just in any available, but I am personally surprised by the lack of tangible information about what is happening there. For example, obviously there is a battle for Kyiv and lots of talk about long convoys moving around. But I really don’t have a clue about the intensity or scale of the fighting at all. And little data on the scale of the Ukrainian army.
I mentioned that to a friend yesterday, and I think it is intentional. A lot of the info we're getting from journalists and analysts is coming from the Ukrainian govt, and also from US and UK govts on background. Those assessments of the Russian army get published quickly, but none of those sources are giving out anything about Ukrainian dispositions and strategy. So as a result the journalists have nothing to report on that side.
 
Has it always been Keev? Chicken Keev?

We can’t have got it wrong all this time.
 
From what I've read, Ukraine told foreign students to leave Ukraine weeks ago. There are a lot of Indian students stuck there too. Now that they're having to escort people out of danger areas they're prioritizing Ukrainians which kind of makes sense. Unless they're prioritizing white Ukrainians over black Ukrainians, but I don't think that's happening here

We flew out some Indians students already, but quite a few are still stranded, and allegedly not being treated well. Videos and tweets about how they're being allegedly harrassed at Polish borders.



The worry is how much normal Russian people are going to feel this massive economical fallout. Crazy that it seems one human being stands in the way of peace for millions, if any good comes from this it’s hopefully that Russia never gives one person such extreme power (and pay the small price of having their own version of EU countries messed up politics with all its inefficiencies and inadequacies).

The economic fallout seems to be hitting them hard: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...one-russians-face-economic-point-of-no-return

There is no face saving option for Putin at this point. He's far too overcommitted and nearing a point where EU and NATO are beginning to see cracks in his hold on power. In his own mind, his only out in all of this will be to take Ukraine by going ultra-violent. Anything else will be considered a weak capitulation involving him ruining the Russian economy while returning from Ukraine empty handed. Also, now that the international community has him in a weakened position, they aren't likely to remove the sanctions until he pays for the damage and destruction in Ukraine and signs an agreement to fund its reconstruction. He of course, isn't going to agree to any of these things and is incentivized to double down on taking Ukraine.

Escalating war with the use of banned weaponry and targeting civilians, statements against countries aiding Ukraine - I agree that there doesn't seem to be a way back for Putin. With Europe stepping in (even Switzerland and Finland proactively joining Ukranian efforts is a strong statement), he is definitely outcast diplomatically and may also be outnumbered in military might. He is accountable for thousands of innocent Ukranian lives and the collapse of the Russian economy with no way out, I hope internal pressure takes him out before a scary endgame where he resorts to desperate measures.
 
I honestly wonder what trump would have done in this situation.
5% we'd all be dead by now, 95% Ukraine was staging a Putin parade today.

Has it always been Keev? Chicken Keev?

We can’t have got it wrong all this time.
Kiev is the Russian version which shocked me because I thought all these news anchors were pronouncing it wrong.
 
He'd have sorted it out, probably the best sorting out in history, believe me. It would've been dealt with bigly.

"Putin's a great man, trust me, I know him, I know him very well a great man. And his denazification of Ukraine has been amazing, absolutely amazing. And it's all thanks to me, believe me."
 
Look, I want to emphasize a disclaimer here: if you don't have the stomach, don't watch it.

But r/combatfootage has clips of this war. And it's intense as hell. We're talking vehicles being absolutely wrecked into the ground. Modern conventional warfare is a bitch.
Haha, I’m absolutely not watching actual footage of it. I could stomach it but it’d really make me upset / angry even more at what’s happening. I’m not particularly seeking the information as such, I just thought it was an interesting observation.
 
A very interesting video which I'm in the process of watching analysing Putin's psyche.

The guy with the YouTube channel has been on my wavelength with regard to Corona and called quite a few things right (although I only found him recently)

It's a bit of a long watch.

 
Might be true:



Why does everyone on Twitter feel the need to be an expert? Open your mouth so your lungs don't explode? :lol: The vacuum effect is overplayed, if you're in range to be concerned about that, you're dead from the explosion.
 
I mentioned that to a friend yesterday, and I think it is intentional. A lot of the info we're getting from journalists and analysts is coming from the Ukrainian govt, and also from US and UK govts on background. Those assessments of the Russian army get published quickly, but none of those sources are giving out anything about Ukrainian dispositions and strategy. So as a result the journalists have nothing to report on that side.
Makes sense. Good point. I guess though I’m still surprised I haven’t seen any colour / longer pieces which give context to what’s happening (not from a tactical standpoint but what it’s actually like at the moment).
 
The yanks used that MOAB a few years ago in Afghanistan, which I think is thermobaric? Either way was the largest non-nuke ever dropped. So there’s a precedent for it, regardless of any treaties and conventions that Putin clearly doesn’t give a feck about.

He's been trying to look like he cares. He wants to occupy Ukraine and convince the people that submission to Russia is in their best interest. You can't appeal to those instincts if you've already revealed yourself to be the worst of cnuts.

As you said the US did use it in 2017. But that was directed at ISIS caves. Not a civilian area.

 
So what happened? The Russians missed? Or they were told to surrender, told the Russians to go feck themselves, then surrendered?
Was away the last couple of days. They actually surrendered and Russia announced that at the time and even showed their pictures and said they will return to their families safely after the conflict ends. Nobody posted it here?

There is a lot of propaganda going from both sides, and if you think Russia is lying more in this conflict then you're mistaken. Most of the viral picture/video that spread online from Ukraine's side was false and pure propaganda. The kids saluting the Ukrainian tank? From 2016. The 'molotov fight' in Kiev? From 2014. The Kltischko's and Zelensky's picture in uniform/with military forces all from before the conflict. The young girl confronting a 'Russian soldier', is actually a Palestinian girl confronting an Israeli soldier. The building that was one fire because 'Russia bombed it', was actually on fire because a Ukrainian place down by Russia fell on it, the tank overrunning a car in Kyiv? It was a Ukrainian vehicle, most probably trying to enforce the curfew they announced because they fear the pro-Russian people inside the city... and many more. The number of Russian casualties have also been greatly exaggerated by Ukrainian sources, but in fairness that happens in all conflicts from all sides.
 
Just rhetoric to put even more pressure on Russia I suspect. At least for now.

I would have thought so but that surely feeds into his paranoia even more and make him go 'heavier' on the attacks?
 
This was mentioned on Sky News this morning but unverified.

Again it's based on that large explosion from last night we all discussed.

I'm afraid it's going to be very hard to distinguish what's wartime propaganda or not, on both sides. Even if I deeply symphathise with Ukraine, it's in their best interest to make the west think it's escalading fast. Even if I do think Putin could use such bomb, it doesn't make that much sense for him to use that right now when massive reinforcements are on their way. If he wanted to go for nasty bombs that early, he could have done that from the comfort of his borders.
 
It does seem odd to tweet about a quote claiming one had been used. If it had surely we'd have a lot of footage very quickly and if a journalist can't find footage to go with the claim it's at best unverified.