Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This is crazy and is so close into going wrong and turning into a WW3 situation.

Days ago, people mocked sanctions as weak and feckless in deterring Putin. Now, some are saying they could result in WW3.

My view is that they are doing exactly what they were intended - which is put pressure on Putin to negotiate or else risk plundering his country (and political power) into an endless abyss.
 
This is crazy and is so close into going wrong and turning into a WW3 situation.

It's the right thing to do. If (and I don't believe it will happen) nukes are launched by Russia over sanctions then humanity never stood a chance of making it. Enough with indulging this deranged man. Call his bluff. Watch him get torn apart from the inside if he tries to end the World.
 
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It's the right thing to do. If (and I don't believe it will happen) nukes are launched by Russia over sanctions then humanity never stood a chance of making it. Enough with indulging this deranged spastic. Call his bluff. Watch him get torn apart from the inside if he tries to end the World.
:nono:
 
Ease up on sanctions? No way. Keep them in full force until we see a new democratic regime. Putin and anyone else connected shouldn’t be able to survive this.
 
After this is over, how long until Ukraine joins EU and NATO?
I'd hope a while....

There is still mass corruption and the situation at the border has shown racism is still a problem there

I would hope that at least a road map and good governance support can be given to help them achieve membership when sufficient progress is made
 
Days ago, people mocked sanctions as weak and feckless in deterring Putin. Now, some are saying they could result in WW3.

My view is that they are doing exactly what they were intended - which is put pressure on Putin to negotiate or else risk plundering his country (and political power) into an endless abyss.
Yeah we are past the point of ‘let’s try not to piss off Vlad too much’. I’m actually impressed how virtually the entire world has united in the attempt to make this war a miserable experience for Russia.
 
After this is over, how long until Ukraine joins EU and NATO?

They don't qualify for NATO membership yet. Still need to meet various thresholds on anti-corruption, rule of law etc. 3-5 years would seem reasonable.

On the other hand, if Putin falls and Russia becomes democratic (with say a Navalny type figure leading it), then the purpose of NATO would gradually dissolve, which would negate the need for Ukraine or Finland to join in the first place.
 
I don't think simply giving up the land again would solve the issues we have with Putin. There's a general problem at hands and in my opinion, we need to make whole Russia feel it.

What would be the point of Putin retreating if no wins are offered? It needs to be carrot and stick otherwise he's going towards escalation.

Rolling the dice on nukes or regime change seems a bit risky. We just need to give him enough of a win to retreat (probably just Donbas) whilst leaving enough in place to leave regime change as very likely.

This will be damaging to Putin either way, he's going to go it's just a matter of when. Hopefully he's too stupid to see that and thinks he can survive with a small win.
 
I'd hope a while....

There is still mass corruption and the situation at the border has shown racism is still a problem there

I would hope that at least a road map and good governance support can be given to help them achieve membership when sufficient progress is made
Progress is not gonna happen as long as the EU is freezing them out. Not only Ukraine, but we should also start opening up to Bosnia, Georgia, Albania... Start preparing the ground seriousely for their membership.
 
They don't qualify for NATO membership yet. Still need to meet various thresholds on anti-corruption, rule of law etc. 3-5 years would seem reasonable.

On the other hand, if Putin falls and Russia becomes democratic (with say a Navalny type figure leading it), then the purpose of NATO would gradually dissolve, which would negate the need for Ukraine or Finland to join in the first place.

The purpose of NATO is not limited to Russia is it.
There are always threats to NATO member states. China is hardly a friendly nation. Nor is N Korea.
 
Errrr... I'm sure the Ukrainians will debate that

Obviously there's a war going on. It was a joke. I just think that sanctions need to stay in place, even if Russia retreats. Their actions can not go unpunished, unless Putin himself steps down, imo. There's a systematic problem and the relations to Russia from the west have been damaged in an almost irrepairable way for the next years. And unfortunately, Putin showed diplomacy doesn't work.

For Putler no, for everyone else it is a war with thousands dead just in 4 days.

Yeah, I know, I was kind of making a mockery of the Putin's use of words for this war.

What would be the point of Putin retreating if no wins are offered? It needs to be carrot and stick otherwise he's going towards escalation.

Rolling the dice on nukes or regime change seems a bit risky. We just need to give him enough of a win to retreat (probably just Donbas) whilst leaving enough in place to leave regime change as very likely.

This will be damaging to Putin either way, he's going to go it's just a matter of when. Hopefully he's too stupid to see that and thinks he can survive with a small win.

The point of Putin retreating with no wins offered would be saving his nation from collapse. If these economical sanctions are as harsh as they are made out to be, Russia doesn't have that much time. Again, I don't think making diplomacy with Putin again is possible - he showed he isn't trustworthy and is willing to attack while lying beforehand without hesitation.
 
Weird take on some suggesting sanctions should be reduced. I’d make two points:

- The way the world works today, there is not only one way to respond to force (being by applying force back). Times are different. For the average Joe sanctions don’t sound like much, but with the right ones and the right pressure, they are devastating. The objective here isn’t to blow away Russia with force, although that option must remain as a final resort. It’s to end this thing with as little force as possible, to spare as many lives as possible. That includes on both sides because the fact is Russians caught in this mess are by and large also innocent.
- We have long gone past an end game now where Russia pulling back is sufficient. That simply can’t be the end game anymore. If we all thought about invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan could be debated as improper, then this is on another level. There is no justification for it. Ukraine aligning with NATO, whilst a reasonable concern for Putin, isn’t worthy of this. Not even in the slightest. Therefore to my mind, the end game now has to be to neutralise Russia. Either economically, or by forcing an end to the Putin era such that this cannot happen. It’s a travesty that ordinary Russians will suffer from this, but it’s better than a) escalating with force which could genuinely cost lives and b) allowing this to go to end by some agreement which sees normal business resumed as before this invasion. And it’s worth noting that in the longer term, Russia progressing from this dictator would be beneficial for all Russians. I am of course cognisant that financial difficulty does cost lives too, I’m not ignorant to that. But sadly there is life going to be lost given where we are and I see this as the better option.

To that end, the west and east must continue to slap the hardest possible sanctions on Russia. And the threshold for removing them can’t just be an “I’m sorry”.
 
Obviously there's a war going on. It was a joke. I just think that sanctions need to stay in place, even if Russia retreats. Their actions can not go unpunished, unless Putin himself steps down, imo. There's a systematic problem and the relations to Russia from the west have been damaged in an almost irrepairable way for the next years. And unfortunately, Putin showed diplomacy doesn't work.



Yeah, I know, I was kind of making a mockery of the Putin's use of words for this war.
Obviously there's a war going on. It was a joke. I just think that sanctions need to stay in place, even if Russia retreats. Their actions can not go unpunished, unless Putin himself steps down, imo. There's a systematic problem and the relations to Russia from the west have been damaged in an almost irrepairable way for the next years. And unfortunately, Putin showed diplomacy doesn't work.



Yeah, I know, I was kind of making a mockery of the Putin's use of words for this war.



The point of Putin retreating with no wins offered would be saving his nation from collapse. If these economical sanctions are as harsh as they are made out to be, Russia doesn't have that much time. Again, I don't think making diplomacy with Putin again is possible - he showed he isn't trustworthy and is willing to attack while lying beforehand without hesitation.
Sorry mate. I should have realized you were mocking. Just tired of this bloody cnut and of what he has done.
 
Weird take on some suggesting sanctions should be reduced. I’d make two points:

- The way the world works today, there is not only one way to respond to force (being by applying force back). Times are different. For the average Joe sanctions don’t sound like much, but with the right ones and the right pressure, they are devastating. The objective here isn’t to blow away Russia with force, although that option must remain as a final resort. It’s to end this thing with as little force as possible, to spare as many lives as possible. That includes on both sides because the fact is Russians caught in this mess are by and large also innocent.
- We have long gone past an end game now where Russia pulling back is sufficient. That simply can’t be the end game anymore. If we all thought about invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan could be debated as improper, then this is on another level. There is no justification for it. Ukraine aligning with NATO, whilst a reasonable concern for Putin, isn’t worthy of this. Not even in the slightest. Therefore to my mind, the end game now has to be to neutralise Russia. Either economically, or by forcing an end to the Putin era such that this cannot happen. It’s a travesty that ordinary Russians will suffer from this, but it’s better than a) escalating with force which could genuinely cost lives and b) allowing this to go to end by some agreement which sees normal business resumed as before this invasion. And it’s worth noting that in the longer term, Russia progressing from this dictator would be beneficial for all Russians. I am of course cognisant that financial difficulty does cost lives too, I’m not ignorant to that. But sadly there is life going to be lost given where we are and I see this as the better option.

To that end, the west and east must continue to slap the hardest possible sanctions on Russia. And the threshold for removing them can’t just be an “I’m sorry”.
Very good post
 
The purpose of NATO is not limited to Russia is it.
There are always threats to NATO member states. China is hardly a friendly nation. Nor is N Korea.

In practical terms, it has always been a counterweight to the Soviets, and after the fall of the iron curtain, a way to retain collective security against a corrupt and unstable Russia. Could they keep it going after Putin falls ? Definitely. But in the absence of a nuclear armed authoritarian state on European borders, there will probably also some degree of pressure to transition from NATO towards an EU centric common secure defense policy.

I think the US will push to keep NATO going because there are elements within the America who think NATO should be a collective security organizations among all democratic nations (including the likes of Australia, Japan, South Korea) to better deal with authoritarian powers like China. In either case, if Putin falls and Russia goes democratic, it will completely reshape the world order in terms of the relevance of international organizations like the US, NATO, and beyond.
 
This is crazy and is so close into going wrong and turning into a WW3 situation.
Surely Putin invading Ukraine is the crazy thing. Ukraine is fighting back and Putin isn't nuking them. Countries are sending weapons and he's not nuking them. If Moldova decided to send their armed forces in, i don't think he would nuke them either. He's brought Belarusian and Chechen fighters into the country, why shouldn't Ukraine bring allies?

The USSR threatened nuclear Holocaust on the world for decades, under crazier bastards than Putin. Meglomaniacal people don't want to go down in a nuclear war, they're obsessed with their own success, but they don't mind making any threat.

Ultimately, if we're scared of Putin destroying the world, we would have to concede anything he wanted, after all the crazy guy might end the world. But we don't, because that ends with losing everything anyway. If he's gonna end the world we can't stop him. In the meantime, we need to stand up to him.
 
Yeah there are all kinds of people in the world and I'm sure there are many Polish helping out probably the majority. But that doesn't change the fact many Africans and Non- Europeans are facing problems at the Polish border. And it kinda fecking sucks that everyone on this thread dismissed it as Russian propaganda or asked people to post it in a different thread.
This was pages ago but agreed. Seen lots of genuine looking reports about problems at the border and also getting transport to the border for non-Ukrainians. Some blamed it on Poland and others on the Ukrainian forces guiding evacuation.
 
Days ago, people mocked sanctions as weak and feckless in deterring Putin. Now, some are saying they could result in WW3.

My view is that they are doing exactly what they were intended - which is put pressure on Putin to negotiate or else risk plundering his country (and political power) into an endless abyss.

It's not the sanctions that concern me as much as the amount of fire power and weaponry being pushed into the area from all sides. There won't be a Ukraine by the end of this at this rate.
 
It is not whataboutism to deplore how a tragedy like the one we are seeing in Ukraine instead of making us open our eyes to all the tragedies we've been ignoring (like the one in Yemen), is used to justify this bias and spread racist views like "other people are not civilized, they deserve what's happening to them".

Well said
 
Progress is not gonna happen as long as the EU is freezing them out. Not only Ukraine, but we should also start opening up to Bosnia, Georgia, Albania... Start preparing the ground seriousely for their membership.
Albania is on NATO since 2008. Bosnia has internal problems and is divided into two parts, one pro NATO/EU with the majority being Muslims and Croats, one being a satellite state of Serbia with majority being Serbians. Both parts have the right of veto, so Bosnia won’t join NATO cause of that.

Serbia is pro EU but neutral to NATO, but I am afraid that chances of them entering EU have diminished by being the only country in Europe except Belarus to not have condemned Russia’s aggression.

Georgia is still risky. They cannot fight like the Ukrainians are doing.
 
It's not the sanctions that concern me as much as the amount of fire power and weaponry being pushed into the area from all sides. There won't be a Ukraine by the end of this at this rate.
That’s a good point. We saw what happened to guns, equipment and machinery when the States retreated from Afghanistan.