Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The problem is he needs something he can sell at home. Ukraine and the West shouldn't accept any less than a complete Russian withdrawal including Donbass and Crimea etc. That's political suicide for Putin. So what does he do?

They will never ever give up Crimea and I reckon it would be Ukraine’s best interest to accept it. I think even the population there are mostly pro-Russian.
 
He will be dead in 10 years.

He can be dead in 2 for all I care, but with him remaining in the chair, all the opposition will likely be dead too, and once time calls on him, he'll have handpicked successor to continue on the legacy, another lunatic like Medvedev or like.
 
It's certainly a move I would make in Civilization 5, but he would be signing his own death warrant.
As I said in another post....
Popular uprising ... Putin is dead
Military coup.... Putin is dead
Decapitation strike / assassination... Putin is dead
Full scale nukes.... Dead
Tactical nukes... Probably dead but with limited nukes potentially king of the russian ashes
 
They will never ever give up Crimea and I reckon it would be Ukraine’s best interest to accept it. I think even the population there are mostly pro-Russian.

Perhaps Crimea can be used as a bargaining chip if Ukraine is willing. But it can't go back to just before this, he's lost that now. Donbass and Luhansk need to be returned to Ukraine and anything less is the West endorsing it.
 


He chose his words carefully :D, what if he didnt choose his words carefully?


There was a debate on Danish television discussing the situation, including how to help refugees, where one of the party leaders said something like: "We should of course help out as many as we can - these are decent, Christian people" :rolleyes:
 
The best thing to happen would be if Putin gets a Gaddafi ending. It would be like in stories where someone get so scared of something, that in turn does everything possible to start the chain of events that lead to that.
 
The best thing to happen would be if Putin gets a Gaddafi ending. It would be like in stories where someone get so scared of something, that in turn does everything possible to start the chain of events that lead to that.
Russians don't do theatre, they'll just off him on the way to his many villas and maybe blame the Chechens or something along those lines.

Obviously, I'm making this up.
 
As I said in another post....
Popular uprising ... Putin is dead
Military coup.... Putin is dead
Decapitation strike / assassination... Putin is dead
Full scale nukes.... Dead
Tactical nukes... Probably dead but with limited nukes potentially king of the russian ashes

In summary, Putin doesn't have any realistic paths to either remaining in power or remaining alive, since every feasible option would result in his eventual removal from within and/or death.
 
This should fuel the next round of whataboutism over the ensuing pages.
So? Maybe because you were pro US war against Iraq in 2003 and you dont want to see some western media hypocrisy/racism called out.
 

Lithuanian Language Commission has allowed “Russian Warship, Go feck Yourself” (In Russian) phase in the formal/official/legal use in the same way as “Force Majure” etc., and it now translates directly officially in Lithuanian as “Glory to Ukraine”.
 
How likely is that Putin will be overturned from within now? The country in disarray and economic crisis, oligarchs who are used to spending time either on their expensive yachts or watching their sports clubs all around the world now stuck unable to do anything, the intervention evidently not going as planned. Is his entire inner circle willing to go such lengths for him or will they put some resistance?
A retreat and Putin out of power seems like a small price to pay for returning things to the situation as it existed to before the invasion. Who wants to never party in France again when you're a billionaire?
 
In summary, Putin doesn't have any realistic paths to either remaining in power or remaining alive, since every feasible option would result in his eventual removal from within and/or death.
It's currently difficult to see a path to sufficient de escalation that will allow him to maintain control of Russia... And certainly not one that protects what he sees as his legacy

In that context the anaology would be a corners animal ... Dangerously unpredictable

It may be he sees massive escalation is the only thing that might give him an off ramp and judgin his actions by conventional game theory / logic might not be the correct thing to do.

I think this is certainly the most geo politically dangerous situation for a long time 1960s or the fall of the wall I'd say?

I would be very surprised if putin stayed as leader in the medium term ... I would be even more surprised if he was alive after that
 
So? Maybe because you were pro US war against Iraq in 2003 and you dont want to see some western media hypocrisy/racism called out.
We had 19 years to talk about 2003. Many of us, myself included, have talked about it in many of those 19 years. Some of us lost friends and schoolmates in the aftermath.

Anyone bringing it up 19 years later in a specific thread can not expect others not to think he/she has a specific reason to do so.
 
This should fuel the next round of whataboutism over the ensuing pages.

It is not whataboutism to deplore how a tragedy like the one we are seeing in Ukraine instead of making us open our eyes to all the tragedies we've been ignoring (like the one in Yemen), is used to justify this bias and spread racist views like "other people are not civilized, they deserve what's happening to them".


Exactly, he is not the biggest in the class and it suits him to pretend he is the craziest in the class! Make people think he would go nuclear but he won’t. He won’t take on NATO either.

IMO he has calculated that NATO won’t fight directly in Ukraine and he is happy to swap sanctions for UKraine. He either ends up with Ukraine with Russian puppet government or if as I suspect, Ukraine offer too much resistance and he doesn’t fancy ten years of guerrilla war, he will gonto the negotiating table and get what he can, promises from NATO and Ukraine split into two opposing states.
This is his only "good outcome". And it is one he can sell domestically as win. If he wins that war (for the 2 breakout republics) on the ground, I suspect NATO might pressure Ukraine to accept that defeat momentarily (over the medium term, to be reviseted when the regime in Russia starts changing...).

The first option makes no sense, the ukrainian people are not gonna accept a Russian puppet government. And the longer Putin exhausts his occupation army, the more he increases pressure from within while the sanctions keep bleeding Russia.
 
It's currently difficult to see a path to sufficient de escalation that will allow him to maintain control of Russia... And certainly not one that protects what he sees as his legacy

In that context the anaology would be a corners animal ... Dangerously unpredictable

It may be he sees massive escalation is the only thing that might give him an off ramp and judgin his actions by conventional game theory / logic might not be the correct thing to do.

I think this is certainly the most geo politically dangerous situation for a long time 1960s or the fall of the wall I'd say?

I would be very surprised if putin stayed as leader in the medium term ... I would be even more surprised if he was alive after that
I fear so. I fear that we are very close to the point of no return which then has only two possibilities: 1) Putin getting killed or 2) nuclear war.

While the first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario. The trouble is that all the other scenarios in the middle might be permanently lost within the next week.