Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This whole "Ukraine is in ruins" thing is nonsense.

What part of Ukraine is in ruins?

Mauripol and that's about it. Yeah, towns have been destroyed. Bakhmut, Severodonetsk etc aren't looking too good.

Great, this is basically the equivalent of Yeovil, Hastings and Coventry being blown up and claiming "UK is in absolute ruins"
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Shut down most public trading spaces, medicinal rationing, war economy, double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, huge debt growth.

"Normal Economy"
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When I google "economy of russia 2024" all the news reports seem pretty positive. Sure, wartime measures will hurt for a bit, but we had people predicting the complete collapse of their economy, it doesn't seem like it's happening any time soon.
 
Raoul said:
Yeah, I don't think so. Had Putin been successful in reaching Kyiv from the north in the early days of the war, he would've occupied Kyiv and installed his puppet Medvedchuk to lead a new pro-Russian regime there. He failed, which why he's now having to claim picking up a km or two here and there on the Donbas border as Russian wins.
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He isn't claiming them as "Russian wins". You are, because you keep thinking in terms of who is taking what town and village. Nobody at any level of actual power in the Russian government is claiming any of these 'gains' as a win, because they are focused only on the end result.

Anyway we're going in circles here so I'll bow out for a while.
 
maniak said:
I see you're not commenting on the "russia will be kicked out of ukraine" predictions and a frozen conflict is now somehow a win.
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In the present, a frozen conflict isn't a win for the Ukrainians. The war will continue until Putin is kicked out, whether sooner or later. They're not going to stop fighting until they get all of their territory back, whereas Putin is only doing this for neo-imperialist conquest that Russian doesn't need.
 
DT12 said:
He isn't claiming them as "Russian wins". You are, because you keep thinking in terms of who is taking what town and village. Nobody at any level of actual power in the Russian government is claiming any of these 'gains' as a win, because they are focused only on the end result.

Anyway we're going in circles here so I'll bow out for a while.
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Putin congratulates Russia troops, Wagner for ‘capturing Bakhmut’

Russia claimed victory in the battle for the strategic Ukrainian city of Bakhmut
 
DT12 said:
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
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No, but it's very much something you do if your goal is the occupation of the entire country and not "just" of few regions and adding political pressure.
If this was never his aim, then why was he even attempting it? Even if that succeeded in making the government temporarily flee, what would stop Ukrainians from immidiately regaining it back since it is a "literally impossible idea" to occupy?
Cool, and when is that government overthrow happening? It is amusing how you probably broke a 100 posts complaining about Western lack of specific plans (because those apparently need to form a binary win condition) and we are yet to see any similar timetables for Putin's aims. Those apparently just need to happen... eventually and can easily change on the way, but obviously it's part of a massive master plan.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Which credible person predicted Russia will be kicked out of Ukraine in 2023?
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It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
 
maniak said:
When I google "economy of russia 2024" all the news reports seem pretty positive. Sure, wartime measures will hurt for a bit, but we had people predicting the complete collapse of their economy, it doesn't seem like it's happening any time soon.
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Rather than read news articles on mainstream media designed to cater to audiences that don't know anything beyond GDP per capita, look into in depth research by academics and such on the state of the Russian economy

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/703208

this is a good start
 
Raoul said:
In the present, a frozen conflict isn't a win for the Ukrainians. The war will continue until Putin is kicked out, whether sooner or later. They're not going to stop fighting until they get all of their territory back, whereas Putin is only doing this for neo-imperialist conquest that Russian doesn't need.
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How will the ukrainians keep doing it when all generals are complaining about the lack of manpower?
 
maniak said:
It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
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Maybe its your presumption that Russia isn't defeated on your self generated timeline of expectations that is the problem. For all you know, it could happen in a few years (or never at all). That's why they fight the wars.
 
maniak said:
It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
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At no point did anyone credible say this, or think this. Nobody.

You are now judging geopolitical expectation on media spin?
 
maniak said:
How will the ukrainians keep doing it when all generals are complaining about the lack of manpower?
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Its a country of 38m people, so they are not going to run out of fighters anytime soon. They will however run out of money and ammo unless they are regularly replinished.
 
Real Name said:
Tell this to @DT12
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I don't care about him, I think he's a shill for russian propaganda.

But I talk to many people and they all had this idea, by watching the news, that we - the west - were all in on helping ukraine and the sanctions were going to destroy russia's economy.

Now we see ukrainians desperate at the lack of manpower and weapons, while western countries hesitate at every corner about what weapons to send, when to send, etc. IMF reports russia's economy is growing.

Are people supposed to believe russia is losing?
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Rather than read news articles on mainstream media designed to cater to audiences that don't know anything beyond GDP per capita, look into in depth research by academics and such on the state of the Russian economy

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/703208

this is a good start
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AfonsoAlves said:
At no point did anyone credible say this, or think this. Nobody.

You are now judging geopolitical expectation on media spin?
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Mate, my first post in this conversation was about how this will be spinned in the west, so yeah, I'm looking at this from the point of view of mainstream media narratives and spin.
 
Raoul said:
Maybe its your presumption that Russia isn't defeated on your self generated timeline that is the problem. For all you know, it could happen in a few years (or never at all). That's why they fight the wars.
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Sure, ifs and buts, but I'm reading the news today. I see a lot of pessimism on the ukrainian side.
 
Raoul said:
Its a country of 38m people, so they are not going to run out of fighters anytime soon. They will however run out of money and ammo unless they are regularly replinished.
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Again, I'm glad you're optimistic while ukrainian generals complain about the manpower shortage.
 
maniak said:
But I talk to many people and they all had this idea, by watching the news, that we - the west - were all in on helping ukraine and the sanctions were going to destroy russia's economy.

Now we see ukrainians desperate at the lack of manpower and weapons, while western countries hesitate at every corner about what weapons to send, when to send, etc. IMF reports russia's economy is growing.
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Journalists are complete fecking clowns that should never be trusted about their predictions and the disconnect between what politicians say and do is massive. That is an unfortunate reality regardless of an issue.
 
maniak said:
Sure, ifs and buts, but I'm reading the news today. I see a lot of pessimism on the ukrainian side.
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Much of the pessimism is reflective of their funds and ammo running low because of delays in Congress. That has now been fixed as of two weeks ago.
 
maniak said:
I don't care about him, I think he's a shill for russian propaganda.

But I talk to many people and they all had this idea, by watching the news, that we - the west - were all in on helping ukraine and the sanctions were going to destroy russia's economy.

Now we see ukrainians desperate at the lack of manpower and weapons, while western countries hesitate at every corner about what weapons to send, when to send, etc. IMF reports russia's economy is growing.

Are people supposed to believe russia is losing?
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They're not losing but they're not exactly winning either.
 
DT12 said:
Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
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The last time you posted in any other thread but this one was February, and that was an outlier.
 
Lemoor said:
Journalists are complete fecking clowns that should never be trusted about their predictions and the disconnect between what politicians say and do is massive. That is an unfortunate reality regardless of an issue.
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Regardless, they shape popular narratives and influence people's perceptions. Russia plays with that, as do we, so it's not strange people see russia as winning this so far.
 
Raoul said:
Much of the pessimism is reflective of their funds and ammo running low because of delays in Congress. That has now been fixed as of two weeks ago.
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No, they complain specifically about manpower. I don't think 100 dollar bills can hold a machine gun yet.
 
Real Name said:
They're not losing but they're not exactly winning either.
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Now, sure, my prediction is that they will.

I hope they don't to be clear, in case anyone is misinterpreting my posts and some kind of russia support.
 
maniak said:
No, they complain specifically about manpower. I don't think 100 dollar bills can hold a machine gun yet.
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Manpower requires weapons and training. Ukraine have more than enough people in their population to fight, especially given that fighting age males between 18-60 have to register for military service. Their challenge is the logistics of getting new people through the recruitment process and onto the battlefield.
 
Raoul said:
Manpower requires weapons and training. Ukraine have more than enough people in their population to fight, especially given that fighting age males between 18-60 have to register for military service. Their challenge is the logistics of getting new people through the recruitment process and onto the battlefield.
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That's not what I'm reading anywhere. I mean, when have batallions at 35% strength and you're drafting bills to allow prisoners to go to the frontlines you have a problem that goes way beyond cash and material.

Although Ukraine will receive $61 billion in aid from the US over the coming months, the country has continuously struggled to increase and maintain its manpower on the front lines — a critical capability the aid package doesn't fix.

"Ammunition may come in two weeks, but manpower won't," Kofman said. Ukraine has long struggled with manpower issues, but the situation has worsened.

Earlier this year, a Ukrainian service member told The Washington Post that the companies in his battalion were staffed at 35% of normal levels.

Ukrainian military officials have sought as many as 500,000 more soldiers to fight. More recently, new mobilization laws are going into effect, and Ukrainian lawmakers took steps last month to advance a bill that would allow certain individuals in prison to serve in the country's military.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...-could-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-2024-5
 
maniak said:
That's not what I'm reading anywhere. I mean, when have batallions at 35% strength and you're drafting bills to allow prisoners to go to the frontlines you have a problem that goes way beyond cash and material.


https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...-could-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-2024-5
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Like I said, it costs money to get new troops recruited, trained, and deployed. They don't suddenly emerge out of thin air in the absence of resources and logistics to move them through the process. The same money the US sends for weapons is also used for Ukrainian troops, just as it is for paying the salaries of government officials and existing soldiers.
 
Nani Nana said:
Interesting how the Western countries call upon territorial integrity for Ukraine, whilst recognising Kosovo as an independent country. If Kosovo can be independent, then Crimea and Donbas can join Russia.

Double standards and all that.
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:lol:

One thing guaranteed in this life, every several pages some Serbian poster will say ‘if Kosovo can be independent, inject unrelated nonsense after that’.
 
Nani Nana said:
Interesting how the Western countries call upon territorial integrity for Ukraine, whilst recognising Kosovo as an independent country. If Kosovo can be independent, then Crimea and Donbas can join Russia.

Double standards and all that.
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Didn't Donbas vote yes for an independent Ukraine in 1991? Would be interesting to have polling results from pre-2014 before the Donbas war.

Nevertheless, I'm sure there are all kinds of (legal) nuances between Donbas and Kosovo. And Kosovo isn't yet universally recognized.
 
maniak said:
Now, sure, my prediction is that they will.

I hope they don't to be clear, in case anyone is misinterpreting my posts and some kind of russia support.
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Think about the times we live in that you felt compelled to write that 2nd paragraph lest the rabid pack of "PUTIN APOLOGIST!'" hyenas fall on you.

In related news, the EU has just sanctioned 4 more "Russian propaganda" outlets, including 1 from Czech Republic. That one has been carrying videos, shot by Ukrainian citizens, of Ukrainian recruitment officers "Gestapoing" (to adapt AA' s word about his cousin) Ukrainian men and shipping them off to fight.

Can't have you guys in the free and democratic world seeing that "Russian propaganda" can we? It cuts into the "Ukraine just needs money to arm its 38 million warm bodies, that's all!" narrative.
Better to ban it all as part of this war for freedom.
 
If things ends like that, no country wins. If it ends another way, no country wins but who would be losing more changes. As it is right now:

Ukraine lost because lost people, the economy, territory and future
Russia lost because lost people, the economy and future

But it is 0 undisputable that Ukraine would lose way more than Russia

Ukraine could only "win" if they would repel Russia completely and that doesn't seem it will happen as it looks now. And Russia could only "win" if Ukraine surrenders territory officially. Russia's objective was never conquer the whole Ukraine but partially and convert them a puppet state or at least prevent them to get close with the west
 
maniak said:
I guess that will be gist of the spin.
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Well if we weigh matters honestly it is hard to see a Russian win following the invasion and quite easy to see how NATO will be stronger in the middle to long term future.

Lets make the obvious point that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO because of the invasion and Poland has massively increased its defence spending as have other eastern European countries. Is that a win for Russia?

They have used about 2/3 of the Soviet arms stored in terms of tanks armored fighting vehicles and long range missiles. They will never replace them. Not a win there either.

1/3 of the Black Sea fleet is destroyed and there naval base at Sevastopol has been abandoned for operations. That's not a win either.

Their air force has struggled with combined operations has lost huge numbers of planes and helicopters. It still can't dominate the battle field areas for overflight and target acquisition purposes. No win there.

The count is what 450000 dead or wounded with no end in sight two years into a two week special operation.

That is not winning in my opinion.
 
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Nani Nana said:
I just feel like History is completely left out of this thread, despite being a large part of the belligerents' casus belli.

Sadly it is likely down to most posters' ignorance on the region and the matter at large.
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It depends how far back in time you want to go. Kyiv was established over 600 years before Moscow, and somehow noted history buff Vladimir Putin seems to think Ukraine belongs to Russia.
 
Nani Nana said:
I am not one of the belligerents but Putin released a long essay in 2021 that you must know of, on what he views as the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, with this quote in particular which goes some way to explain his invasion six months later :
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And what's your personal view of Putin's words? Do you think he has a valid point there?
 
Nani Nana said:
I am not one of the belligerents but Putin released a long essay in 2021 that you must know of, on what he views as the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, with this quote in particular which goes some way to explain his invasion six months later :
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Are you citing Pogodin and Putin uncritically here?
 
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