Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



September 28, 2023

Secretary of State Tony Blinken kicked off a new state department global music diplomacy initiative by showing off his own skills as a singer-guitarist.

After delivering remarks at a State Department event, Blinken said that it would not be complete “without a little bit of blues,” before playing and singing the Muddy Waters classic “Hoochie Coochie Man.”
 
September 28, 2023

Secretary of State Tony Blinken kicked off a new state department global music diplomacy initiative by showing off his own skills as a singer-guitarist.

After delivering remarks at a State Department event, Blinken said that it would not be complete “without a little bit of blues,” before playing and singing the Muddy Waters classic “Hoochie Coochie Man.”

Thanks
 
Turns out the Blinken guitar thing just happened after all.

Ya, didn't mean to say this was the same event. Just that he had done it previously, and Oct 7 was a week after that... (He or somebody else important from US-Iarael was also giving interviews in early Oct/late Sept about how calm the Middle East was)
 
Wonder if this is an attempt to show strength ahead of Putin's visit to see Xi.
 
Informed Ukrainian voices on mainstream Western media are rare even now but Peter Zalmayev has a very good track record throughout this war of putting his emotions aside and offering a clear-sighted assessment of how events are going to pan out. France 24 interviewed him last night and it's worth watching. It starts from about 2:50 in this video.



A couple more things I want to post which illustrate my overall point, in fact my bedrock conviction, that the West's criminal lack of a coherent strategy almost 2 and a half years into the war is killing Ukraine.

Firstly this Politico article. A delegation of Ukrainian officials is in Washington right now pleading with the Biden White House to lift the ban on using American weapons to strike Russian military targets within Russia. Had they been able to do this, they say, this latest "incursion" (BBC's word - they don't want to call it what it is, a 2nd invasion. How times change) into Kharkiv would have been stopped before it began.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970

Successful trip for the Ukrainians? You decide:

Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration’s policy has not changed. “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

This war, these clowns tell Ukraine, is existential for the entire Western global order; freedom and democracy themselves will fall if Ukraine is defeated, Putin's army will march across Europe and butcher every animal, vegetable and mineral they find along the way...but for heaven's sake don't strike Russian military targets that are preparing to invade you because that would be an "escalation". Heck it's not even an invasion, it's just a minor "incursion", stop being so dramatic about it, Ukraine. Oh yeah, and as "once in a generation intellect" Jake Sullivan reiterated over the weekend - stop attacking Russian oil refineries. Yes it's hurting Russia's economy and their ability to finance the war, but it could also raise American gas prices in an election year. An existential fight for survival is important I guess, but come on now...US gas prices in a Biden election year! Priorities, people.

Next, here's the BBC saying much the same thing (with barely concealed contempt for Blinken's tiresome horseshit from the reporter).



Russian forces are amassing near Sumy for yet another "incursion", Ukraine can see exactly where they are, they have the US weapons to strike them on their bases and stop the incursion...but no, that would be an "escalation". As the guy says in the video: "It has long been known that Russia is gathering troops, but Kiev is reluctantly agreeing to not use the missiles it provides on targets inside Russia". The result of this "fear of escalation" will be a lot more dead Ukrainians and an even more unwinnable position for Ukraine.

Never before has a country been told they're fighting an "existential war" on their behalf (!!) by the very same country that is tying their hands behind their back in fighting it. And so I'll say it again: either give them the means and permission to actually win this war, or else stop stringing them along in the hope that something will magically change. And yeah, as the first guy said, Blinken playing the guitar in Kiev immediately after visiting the square where tens of thousands of Ukrainian flags commemorate dead Ukrainians - absolute f*cking clown. It did not go down well in Ukraine.

On which note I'll end with Boris Johnson saying the quiet part out loud regarding the West's interest in this war:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtMJ85fvvKU

"If Ukraine falls it will be the end of Western hegemony". That's an awesome narrative to use in trying to get the likes of the Global South and Africa on your side.
 
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Wonder if this is an attempt to show strength ahead of Putin's visit to see Xi.
Yermak and Budanov said months ago that May and June would be very difficult periods for Ukraine because of the delay in American aid. This new invasion incursion has nothing to do with Putin's visit to China, it's part of a *gasp* clear and long-term strategy (fancy that, Sullivan and Blinken) to stretch Ukrainian forces to breaking point. Ukraine simply has no troops left, as even Budanov has admitted:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html

“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said. "I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
 
It's going to be depressingly fun seeing how the "the russians fecked up by invading ukraine" narrative in the west will be spinned once russia wins this.
 
It's going to be depressingly fun seeing how the "the russians fecked up by invading ukraine" narrative in the west will be spinned once russia wins this.
How will Russia win you reckon?
By occupying whole of Ukraine?
 
How will Russia win you reckon?
By occupying whole of Ukraine?
The narrative we were sold for months and months was that russia was going to be kicked out of ukraine, maybe even crimea. Their economy would go to shit. The west was going to be behind ukraine for as long as it takes and will send all the military help they need.

It seems they're going to keep vast areas of land, resources and industry and their economy is doing at least as well as it was before. The west is providing the bare minimum and everyone around the world is looking at those promises as empty words.

I don't see how this is anything other than a win for russia.
 
As for not using weapons inside Russia, werent targets inside Russia hit a number of times already?
 
How will Russia win you reckon?
By occupying whole of Ukraine?

Yes. By taking over all of Ukraine, which was after all Putin's original goal. If he does that then Russia wins. If he doesn't do that then he loses since the Ukrainians won't stop fighting to reclaim their land.
 
The narrative we were sold for months and months was that russia was going to be kicked out of ukraine, maybe even crimea. Their economy would go to shit. The west was going to be behind ukraine for as long as it takes and will send all the military help they need.

It seems they're going to keep vast areas of land, resources and industry and their economy is doing at least as well as it was before. The west is providing the bare minimum and everyone around the world is looking at those promises as empty words.

I don't see how this is anything other than a win for russia.
So they waged a war only to occupy a bit more of Donbas? If that's their goal and it is cause they changed it once they realized they wont go into Kiev then yeah they won it..
 
Yes. By taking over all of Ukraine, which was after all Putin's original goal. If he does that then Russia wins. If he doesn't do that then he loses since the Ukrainians won't stop fighting to reclaim their land.
I guess that will be gist of the spin.
 
Yes. By taking over all of Ukraine, which was after all Putin's original goal. If he does that then Russia wins. If he doesn't do that then he loses since the Ukrainians won't stop fighting to reclaim their land.
I dont see that happening as bleak as the situation looks at the moment.
 
How will Russia win you reckon?
By occupying whole of Ukraine?
Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation". Russia will win by fulfilling the goals that were set out at the start of the war, and which have not at any point changed. And to answer the guy's question about how the West will spin the narrative: Blinken and Biden are already doing it. "Putin has already failed, because his plan was to take over the whole of Ukraine" (no, it wasn't). In other words: Putin has lost because he didn't achieve goals he never wanted to achieve. And Ukraine has won the war because even though they've been functionally destroyed and had a generation of men killed and they're now saddled with literally unpayable debt until the end of time...they're "sovereign!" The Russian flag does not fly over Lviv, like Putin wanted!
 
I guess that will be gist of the spin.

Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
 
So they waged a war only to occupy a bit more of Donbas? If that's their goal and it is cause they changed it once they realized they wont go into Kiev then yeah they won it..
I don't see how managing to occupy more land, destroy ukrainian hope of recovering it, managing to maintain a normal economy and showing the west as weak and unreliable is not a win for russia. Sure it cost them a lot but it's still a win.
 
As for not using weapons inside Russia, werent targets inside Russia hit a number of times already?
Yes, but by Ukrainian drones, not with US weapons, which are what are needed to take out Russian military bases that are getting ready to launch another invasion incursion.
 
Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation".
Sure, totally it was never the goal. They just got lost when they tried to take Kyiv.
 
Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
I won't bother because I don't have the time, but I'm sure if I search this thread I'll find plenty of posts (probably even yours) claiming this was an absolute blunder by russia and ukraine, with the help from the west, was going to reclaim all lost territory. There was a period where many claimed even crimea was back on the table.

Now it's "well they only won by a little bit" so yeah, fecking embarrassing by those ho vowed to protect ukraine and even claimed this was a war for democracy and western values.
 
Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation". Russia will win by fulfilling the goals that were set out at the start of the war, and which have not at any point changed. And to answer the guy's question about how the West will spin the narrative: Blinken and Biden are already doing it. "Putin has already failed, because his plan was to take over the whole of Ukraine" (no, it wasn't). In other words: Putin has lost because he didn't achieve goals he never wanted to achieve. And Ukraine has won the war because even though they've been functionally destroyed and had a generation of men killed and they're now saddled with literally unpayable debt until the end of time...they're "sovereign!" The Russian flag does not fly over Lviv, like Putin wanted!
Sure mate. You keep repeating Russian propaganda lines and then you wonder why people react.
 
Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Ukraine is being irrevocably destroyed as a functional state with any kind of future, and it will never join NATO. What you imagine Putin's goals to be don't correspond with his endlessly repeated statements about what Russia's goals are in this war.
 
I won't bother because I don't have the time, but I'm sure if I search this thread I'll find plenty of posts (probably even yours) claiming this was an absolute blunder by russia and ukraine, with the help from the west, was going to reclaim all lost territory. There was a period where many claimed even crimea was back on the table.

Now it's "well they only won by a little bit" so yeah, fecking embarrassing by those ho vowed to protect ukraine and even claimed this was a war for democracy and western values.

Nothing has changed in this regard. All of these places are still on the table. Until places like Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv are all in Russian hands, the Ukrainians are doing just fine, especially now that they are armed to the gills again with western weapons.
 
Sure mate. And you wonder why you're called a Russian bot here.
Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
 
Ukraine is being irrevocably destroyed as a functional state with any kind of future, and it will never join NATO. What you imagine Putin's goals to be don't correspond with his endlessly repeated statements about what Russia's goals are in this war.

It isn't being irrevocably destroyed given that a vast majority of the fighting isn't taking place in its largest cities, which spare the odd Russian missile attack, are still fully functional. They are also still getting their grain shipments out and continue to receive billions in western money. So until that stops, Putin will be stuck in a position of having to defend the land he currently holds. He has not made any significant gains in over two years at this point. In fact it was the Ukrainians that repelled him out of Kharkiv two years ago and then out of Kherson last year.
 
Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
Did you ever consider that maybe if you stopped acting like a spin doctor for Putin it would stop? No, it must be everyone else that is wrong, obviously. Truly nobody can grasp your flawless vision.
 
Nothing has changed in this regard. All of these places are still on the table. Until places like Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv are all in Russian hands, the Ukrainians are doing just fine, especially now that they are armed to the gills again with western weapons.
I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.
 
Sure, totally it was never the goal. They just got lost when they tried to take Kyiv.
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
 
I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.

These reports have been intermittently coming in for well over a year in places like Bakhmut and elsewhere as a means to promote more western funding "Ukraine could lose if western money dries up" etc. They've been in a deficit for the past six months as Congress waivered on new funding and haven't lost any significant ground in the process. If they lose a major big city, then that would be significant. In the absence of that, we're still stuck in a largely frozen conflict where neither side are making significant gains.
 
I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.

UPOD
 
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?

Yeah, I don't think so. Had Putin been successful in reaching Kyiv from the north in the early days of the war, he would've occupied Kyiv and installed his puppet Medvedchuk to lead a new pro-Russian regime there. He failed, which why he's now having to claim picking up a km or two here and there on the Donbas border as Russian wins.
 
I don't see how managing to occupy more land, destroy ukrainian hope of recovering it, managing to maintain a normal economy and showing the west as weak and unreliable is not a win for russia. Sure it cost them a lot but it's still a win.

Shut down most public trading spaces, medicinal rationing, war economy, double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, huge debt growth.

"Normal Economy"
 
These reports have been intermittently coming in for well over a year in places like Bakhmut and elsewhere as a means to promote more western funding "Ukraine could lose if western money dries up" etc. They've been in a deficit for the past six months as Congress waivered on new funding and haven't lost any significant ground in the process. If they lose a major big city, then that would be significant. In the absence of that, we're still stuck in a largely frozen conflict where neither side are making significant gains.
I see you're not commenting on the "russia will be kicked out of ukraine" predictions and a frozen conflict is now somehow a win.
 
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
So instead of occupation they would install their government in Kiev and let some small part of Ukraine to exist. All right, thats a big difference. I must correct you too, its not a war but a special militaty operation how Putin calls it. You're an expert on Russia goals after all.