@AfonsoAlves do you think Ukraine still deserves Western support? Or maybe support based on certain conditions?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
My main discontent with how things are in Ukraine stem from the fact that the trajectory was so hopeful for so long. From mid 2000's to 2022 things were getting exponentially better, from a political structure, anti-corruption, governance (obviously the Luhansk and Donetsk situation aside) everything was just getting visibly better. Then the war happened and it just felt like everything went back to the way it was.
Yes, I think that its being used a pretext by the center-right/right wing politicians to get rid of left wing political parties in Ukraine, as explained in the other post you responded to below. Some of them are legitimate cannings, others far more dubious. Then there's the whole McCarthyism element to it.
regarding Hromadske specifically, no. Because they're actually heavily funded by the West and has huge exposure in the west. But there are cases of Telegram warbloggers being told to shut the feck up. There's a reason why Ukrainian Opsec is so good compared to Russia and part of the reason is that Telegram 'dooming' is simply not tolerated. Mainstream media in native Ukrainian barely discusses some of the current power/political problems. The way the Zaluzhnyi situation was handled by the mainstream media was very "tread lightly".
There's a whole lot of stuff that I haven't gone into to be honest - things like AFU firing at villages occupied by Russian forces that still have Ukrainian civilians living there (mostly old women), executing prisoners of war, trying to accuse everyone of being Pro-Russia for dissenting voices.
It's contextually bizarre if it is true. Again, it's like if Russia planned to invade Ukraine and decided to choose Nigel Farage of all people to collaborate with. Viktor Zaika was 100% Pro Russia when it came to economic and cultural alignment, but he never spoke about anything related to the war. He was arrested and detained in 2022 "pending investigation," and nothing was ever reported ever again. Nobody knows the outcome of this investigation, nobody knows where he is now and it's complete hush and silence. It really doesn't sit well with me.
I will always believe that Ukraine should be aided to fight against Russia. I believe that, it is the forefront in the minds of every Ukrainian whether they live in Ukraine like most of my family, or like me, who live abroad.
I don't think that tying Western aid to Political reform is a step that helps. Right now, our priority is to repel the Russians, however long that may take. My despair over how we as a state has responded to times of extreme hardship does not exceed my absolute belief that sovereignity and freedom against invasion by Russia is still hugely important.
My biggest fear is that we are trapped between two. We end up being domineered by the Russians left as a rump state for them to pick the carcass of -> Or we somehow repel the Russians and the country becomes the same political hell-scape we ourselves hate on the other side of the border.
I think your intepretation of what I mean by "Ukraine is no better than Russia" does not come from the point of view of scale or entirely on execution, but in cultural and political intent. Ultimately, we are two nations now that seemingly don't give a shit about the human cost of what we set out to achieve, that we as a system of governance still allow petty politics to overshadow national interest. We are both nations that right now are willing to sacrifice the bare fundamentals for our aims, with the only difference being that our aims are just and theirs are not. But that means little to me because I always believe that no matter how just the end target is, not all means are justified.
We say how brutal it was of Wagner to recruit prisoners, yet we do the same. Just not at the same scale of execution. We say how horrible the Russian political system is, yet Ukraine has banned practically all left leaning parties and anyone who even shows slight cultural loyalties towards Russia. We want to be part of the West, the EU and all its relevant institutions and yet we have a situation where somehow a President is able to remove a political threat, who happens to be the Commander of the Armed forces fighting an existential war for freedom.
We are not yet Russia in terms of scale, but we're both on that same slippery road, sliding down, only Russia is much closer to the bottom and we're still sliding. A complete reversal of all the progress we have made.
I'm angry because I always thought we were better, but as more and more revelations come by, we're only more humane at the execution, not in the intention. We're in the same boat as Russia, on that slope going down until both of us reach the hell that is at the end. Reading that makes me realize how dramatic I sound.
@AfonsoAlves
Please, keep posting. I'm personally desperate to navigate through the fog of war and find your input invaluable.
Please, keep posting. I'm personally desperate to navigate through the fog of war and find your input invaluable.
Thanks @VorZakone for generating this debate and thanks @AfonsoAlves for your perspective. Its being a great reading
Typical ultra conservative, anti globalisation, anti Europe, nationalist view point.
Could be translated 1:1 to the views of the far right AfD in Germany, just add the anti Americanism and you got their policies.
Haven't the US not done pretty much the same with the Japanese population living in the US after Pearl Harbor.
As Ukraine and Russia were one country for centuries, it's absolutely normal you share similar culture and act in many ways alike.
The decisive difference is that Russia is the aggressor and the Ukrainians are defending their country.
In a war there are always many atrocities. No side is blameless or innocent. You won't win a war against a dictatorship playing 100% by the rules.
You don't want Western aid to be conditional. But you also say Ukraine must be banned from international events if Russia must also be banned. I mean, this strikes me a little bit as a rhetorical leap: a country worth supporting but also worthy of banning. Especially with the context of Ukraine's trajectory being a positive one up to 2022 until Russia invaded and totally messed the situation up.I will always believe that Ukraine should be aided to fight against Russia. I believe that, it is the forefront in the minds of every Ukrainian whether they live in Ukraine like most of my family, or like me, who live abroad.
I don't think that tying Western aid to Political reform is a step that helps. Right now, our priority is to repel the Russians, however long that may take. My despair over how we as a state has responded to times of extreme hardship does not exceed my absolute belief that sovereignity and freedom against invasion by Russia is still hugely important.
My biggest fear is that we are trapped between two. We end up being domineered by the Russians left as a rump state for them to pick the carcass of -> Or we somehow repel the Russians and the country becomes the same political hell-scape we ourselves hate on the other side of the border.
I think your intepretation of what I mean by "Ukraine is no better than Russia" does not come from the point of view of scale or entirely on execution, but in cultural and political intent. Ultimately, we are two nations now that seemingly don't give a shit about the human cost of what we set out to achieve, that we as a system of governance still allow petty politics to overshadow national interest. We are both nations that right now are willing to sacrifice the bare fundamentals for our aims, with the only difference being that our aims are just and theirs are not. But that means little to me because I always believe that no matter how just the end target is, not all means are justified.
We say how brutal it was of Wagner to recruit prisoners, yet we do the same. Just not at the same scale of execution. We say how horrible the Russian political system is, yet Ukraine has banned practically all left leaning parties and anyone who even shows slight cultural loyalties towards Russia. We want to be part of the West, the EU and all its relevant institutions and yet we have a situation where somehow a President is able to remove a political threat, who happens to be the Commander of the Armed forces fighting an existential war for freedom.
We are not yet Russia in terms of scale, but we're both on that same slippery road, sliding down, only Russia is much closer to the bottom and we're still sliding. A complete reversal of all the progress we have made.
I'm angry because I always thought we were better, but as more and more revelations come by, we're only more humane at the execution, not in the intention. We're in the same boat as Russia, on that slope going down until both of us reach the hell that is at the end. Reading that makes me realize how dramatic I sound.
Given your personal experiences, I understand you feel strongly about this. I guess from a distance it'll be hard for me (and others) to understand your view that if Russia is ban worthy, then Ukraine is also. I think we see different on the interpretation here. You look at the intent and what might happen down the road but I think you may be slightly harsh here and there as I still see considerable distance between Ukraine and the state terror that we witness in Russia. Recently 2 SBU colonels were arrested on suspicion of a murder plot on Zelensky so it seems the threat from within Ukrainian institutions is also still there.
But I'll do say this: whatever victory goals Ukraine had, they do seem further and further away. Sensitive issues such as manpower and mobilization don't seem to be properly addressed.
Last edited:
Quite a few tweeters picking up on this
Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...e-minister-shoigu-parliament-says-2024-05-12/
Shoigu's deputy minister was arrested some while ago by the way. Maybe some Kremlin internal rivalries going on.
Makes sense given that he's already ditched nearly every prominent military leader so far over the past 27 months.
Maybe Vlad thinks they were plotting against him. Certainly an odd turn of events for such a vibrant democracy.
Shoigu replaces Patrushev apparently.
Seen a tweet few days ago saying Surovikin could be back into picture. Think that would've spelled bad news, as he seemed to be doing right things when he was in charge.
That would be a shock given his ties to Prigozhin's coup attempt and reports that he either knew about or was in on the plot. He's also scarcely been seen since then other than in a few crude tweets of him looking unshaven and disheveled in civilian clothes
He's been in Africa for a year and the rumours that he's back in Russia are false.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo
How tf can they allow that to happen. They had nearly 2 years to fortify.
Because the corruption and state of the AFU is about the same as the Russians.
Just look at the list of military commanders who have been fired for corruption in the past two years should tell you everything you need to know.
Russians are aiming for Harkiv now or its a tactic of spreading the atrack so UFA defense is streched?
So far it seems to be the latter, to draw away Ukrainian troops from Donbas.
US commander appeared to suggest UK special forces were operating in Ukraine
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-commander-appeared-suggest-uk-special-forces-in-ukraine-2024-5
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-commander-appeared-suggest-uk-special-forces-in-ukraine-2024-5
Bit curious about your background here, I had the impression you were from the US, who do you refer to "we" here?
Ukraine. I was born in Ukraine.
Cheers.
Can't speak to other nations but the UK Government does not comment or acknowledge anything in regard to UK special forces
That's usually the policy of most nations when their troops are doing covert things. I wouldn't be surprised to eventually learn that several western countries are doing covert training and logistical work inside Ukraine.
So big-mouth American's can't keep schtum is the story
TBH, given the mentality of the SAS and British squaddies in general, they'd probably do covert training and logistical work as a 'live' exercise!
So big-mouth American's can't keep schtum is the story
TBH, given the mentality of the SAS and British squaddies in general, they'd probably do covert training and logistical work as a 'live' exercise!
They're usually good about it, although there's occasionally one rando that says something in a low level meeting that gets picked up by the media. Just yesterday, 60 minutes did a report on using ex US special operators to extract a Palestinian - American woman from Gaza, which was miraculously kept quiet for most of the past 4 months.
Well if Trump wins his immunity case I hope they don't keep quiet about Seal team 6, if you know what I mean
re: media, they can keep quiet when they want to but then there'll always be one who breaks ranks, I always remember Prince Harry on active duty in Afghanistan, the press knew and said nothing for months until some Australian hack decided to use the story
Or even assisting the Ukrainians in interrogating Russian prisoners to extract as much intel as possible.
I thought it was public knowledge special forces were there in non combat roles already i.e. training, espionage etc. We saw the leak last year on this as well.
Alexey Dyumin, my strong prediction for who will succeed Putin, promoted to a Kremlin position.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-appoints-patrushev-dyumin-kremlin-aides-2024-05-14/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-appoints-patrushev-dyumin-kremlin-aides-2024-05-14/
What is it about him that leads you to believe he will eventually replace Putin ?
Ukraine's reaction to the narratives around the 2022 peace talks.
Around 10 years ago I'd asked a few people with first-hand knowledge of the Russian power structure (one of whom was then and still is now a deputy in the State Duma) who was in contention for following Putin and the same name, Dyumin's, kept coming up as someone to keep an eye on. This was even before the Crimean annexation, arguably the peak of his highlight reel.
Since then I've been following his trajectory and in my opinion his career arc has all the hallmarks of how Russian leaders are going to be selected for the foreseeable future. He began as Putin’s chief security guard (i.e Putin trusts him with his life, something that will matter when he steps down if he doesn't want to be Berezovskied). Then he was moved over to military intelligence, where he became deputy head of the GRU. In 2014 he basically orchestrated the annexation of Crimea. After that he was promoted to deputy Defence Minister. Then in 2016 he was rewarded for all his military achievements by being given a job nobody in his position would ever want. He was made governor of a relatively small and unglamorous region 200 miles away from Moscow. The explanation I was given, take it or leave it, was to judge how he manages and builds a 'society'. It's all very well having a military intelligence background but it's not enough to be president. For nearly 8 years they’ve been watching him closely in that role and it seems he's passed that final test, hence his promotion today to "Aide to the President of Russia". I've also been paying close attention to the various tools of political technology here, primarily in this case the state news channels, and over the last few years there have been more and more stories highlighting various initiatives in the Tula Oblast (where Dyumin is governor). There is no real reason for those non-stories to be on the 9pm news on First Channel, other than to make the kind of people who watch state media (my wife's parents for example) familiar with his face, name and voice.
Harms suggested a while ago when I first proposed his name that barely anyone in Russia knew him, but in my opinion that doesn't matter (it's also about to become less accurate; I guarantee this guy will now be a frequent figure in the media here standing next to Putin). How many people knew who the hell Putin was before he was installed, and besides which, my perception is that Putin's support is so strong right now (even among my friends and acquaintances, people who were fiercely opposed to him and the invasion 2 years ago now 'support' him to various degrees) that whoever Putin installs as his successor will be good enough for them. His judgement will be trusted. Whatever appetite existed here for a more democratic society has - I'm speaking again only from my own perception - been largely scared out of people. Endless gleeful Western vows back in 2022 by people like Bruno Le Maire, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Joe Biden, Anthony Blinken, Annalena Baerbock and Ursula von der Leyen to immiserate the Russian people as punishment for the invasion had that effect, who'd a thunk it? If Putin announces a few years from now that he's stepping aside and putting his protege in charge I don't think many people will have a problem with it, especially because despite the war-time support, a lot of people are still tired of him and would like a new face in the Kremlin.
Interesting thanks. I suppose who leads Russia after Putin will depend a lot on how Putin leaves power. If he's somehow forced out, then he likely won't have the ability emplace whoever he wants.
It will also be interesting what happens to the likes of Kadyrov after Putin leaves.
Much better than weapons.