Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[the_cliff]

All of this talk of winning and losing is pretty much delusion at this point in time as the war is still going on. At this point in time I don't think either side can claim 'victory' as Ukraine have lost a decent chunk of land and Russia can't claim victory as they haven't achieved any of their stated 'goals'.

That being said, I do think things are looking bleak for Ukraine right now and need the aid and foreign military equipment to get there ASAP. It's pissing me off how NATO countries are still delaying, where are the F16s and the Patriots that have been promised for a while now.

 

[the_cliff]

It sounds like you're basing your opinion on some shallow media articles rather than an in depth analysis of what's actually going if you took terms like "crippled" seriously which no economists I am aware of ever used, maybe some politicians for hype. No one serious expected sanctions to cripple anything, but they have narrowed a lot of choices for Russia.

I'd also disagree that after the war, everyone will flock to trade again. Russia can't just recover from how it's repositioned its economy long term. As I said, it's too dependent on resource expectation, sacrificed innovation for the short term boost of 8% of GDP dedicated to military that's going to be hard to shift back to an equivalent peacetime economy and I doubt the sanctions will be removed when the war ends which will limit their trade.

They have crippled Russia but they have learnt to adapt. Their change of military equipment used and sourcing of raw materials have changed. China, North Korea and Iran have helped Russia largely bypass sanctions.

 

[VorZakone]

How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU

Moscow bagged €3 billion through a sanctions loophole that allows Turkey to relabel Russian oil and ship it to the EU.

“Turkey has emerged as a strategic pit stop for Russian fuel products rerouted to the EU, generating hundreds of millions in tax revenues for the Kremlin's war chest,” said Martin Vladimirov, a senior energy analyst at CSD.

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-turkey-become-vladimir-putin-pit-stop-sell-camouflage-fuel-eu/

 

[UpWithRivers]

Cowards, bitching, wanting to bent over to russians... wow

It's true?

 

[4bars]

It's true?

Not in my opinion. I think is so harsh to qualify them as such when they are people that fears for their lives and livelihood while we are typing from our comfortable lives

 

[DT12]

...I've also been paying close attention to the various tools of political technology here, primarily in this case the state news channels, and over the last few years there have been more and more stories highlighting various initiatives in the Tula Oblast (where Dyumin is governor). There is no real reason for those non-stories to be on the 9pm news on First Channel, other than to make the kind of people who watch state media (my wife's parents for example) familiar with his face, name and voice.

Harms suggested a while ago when I first proposed his name that barely anyone in Russia knew him, but in my opinion that doesn't matter (it's also about to become less accurate; I guarantee this guy will now be a frequent figure in the media here standing next to Putin).

Tonight's 9pm news on First Channel (the equivalent of the BBC's News at 10) followed up the main story of Putin in Beijing with a complete non-story about Alexey Dyumin saying a teary-eyed goodbye to the equally distraught citizens of Tula Oblast as he departs to take up his new job as Putin's Padawan. Here's a clip of it. It's less than a minute but you'll get the idea of what they're going for, especially with the conveniently-filmed nose-blowing juuuust before he gets off the stage.




I've seen all I need to see. Barring some dramatic shift in Russian politics, Dyumin is succeeding Putin.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Stanley Road]

I live in Poland in a city with the most number of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants and overall interact a lot with Ukrainians due to nature of my work.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:

- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."

- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?

- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.

No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.


It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.

Yeah, I think you're right. This war is going nowhere, with or without aid. The west is weak and useless. Dunno how this will end bit it should very quickly.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

It's true?

Hey, so my 28 year old cousin with type 1 diabetes and a whole myriad of other problems got drafted, tried to escape and got shot. Absolute coward wasn't he?

My close friend who has been here in the UK working as a Software engineer in London since 2017 just lost access to his consulate services and won't be able to renew his Visa when it expires. Absolute coward, he should totally give up his 6 figure salary in London and go die in a freezing trench in Donetsk.

 

[UpWithRivers]

Hey, so my 28 year old cousin with type 1 diabetes and a whole myriad of other problems got drafted, tried to escape and got shot. Absolute coward wasn't he?

My close friend who has been here in the UK working as a Software engineer in London since 2017 just lost access to his consulate services and won't be able to renew his Visa when it expires. Absolute coward, he should totally give up his 6 figure salary in London and go die in a freezing trench in Donetsk.

Objectively yeah. It fits the definition of coward “a person who is unwilling to do dangerous or unpleasant things by virtue of them being dangerous or unpleasant”

but being cowardly isn’t always a bad thing.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Objectively yeah. It fits the definition of coward “a person who is unwilling to do dangerous or unpleasant things by virtue of them being dangerous or unpleasant”

but being cowardly isn’t always a bad thing.

So we're all cowards. I don't see you in a trench.

 

[4bars]

So we're all cowards. I don't see you in a trench.

That's the think. I tend to believe that people don't have enough empathy to put themselves in others people shoes. War is fecking horrible, not only for the losers but for the winners. And not wanting to go is not being a coward, but is to be sane, specially when you trade is not being a soldier

 

[UpWithRivers]

So we're all cowards. I don't see you in a trench.

I literally said in my comment if I was in the same situation It would be me? Only difference is that I would admit it.

 

[Gehrman]

I literally said in my comment if I was in the same situation It would be me? Only difference is that I would admit it.

It can also simply be to value your own life, health and wellbeing and your friends rather than throwing it away for a project that looks doomed to fail.

 

[That_Bloke]

I literally said in my comment if I was in the same situation It would be me? Only difference is that I would admit it.

You're judging people from the comfort of your armchair.

You don't seem to have the slightest clue about how war looks like or how it is to see your life hanging by a thread, and about to be snuffed out just for being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. And try to live with this feeling day in, day out until your time's up. Or not.

I do not know of anyone who went through the absolute hell that war is, calling people cowards for trying to avoid it, especially when it looks like it's a doomed enterprise. I personally wouldn't. "Admitting" it in a purely theoretical sense, since you've never been called to the front lines and will never be, doesn't change a single thing.

Posts like yours are simply shameful.

 

[UpWithRivers]

You're judging people from the comfort of your armchair.

You don't seem to have the slightest clue about how war looks like or how it is to see your life hanging on a tread, and about to be snuffed out just for being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. And try to live with this feeling day in, day out until your time's up. Or not.

I do not know of anyone who went through the absolute hell that war is, calling people cowards for trying to avoid it, especially when it looks like it's a doomed enterprise. I personally wouldn't. "Admitting" it in a purely theoretical sense, since you've never been called to the front lines and will never be, doesn't change a single thing.

Posts like yours are simply shameful.

You are judging me from the comfort of your armchair. You don't know what I've been through. Shameful.
Just because they have been through hell it doesn't change the English language. They can go through hell, we all feel for them, we understand them, we sympathise with them and we don't understand them because we never went through the same thing AND they are cowards.....all statements can he true. One doesn't negate the other. If you want to disprove coward you need to prove bravery or at least why they are not cowards. Just giving excuses doesn't change the fact.
And my original post was about a specific set of people. Not your cousin or uncle or whoever you are annoyed about. I said this group of people SOUND like a bunch of cowards. Sounds like.

 

[2cents]

You are judging me from the comfort of your armchair. You don't know what I've been through. Shameful.
Just because they have been through hell it doesn't change the English language. They can go through hell, we all feel for them, we understand them, we sympathise with them and we don't understand them because we never went through the same thing AND they are cowards.....all statements can he true. One doesn't negate the other. If you want to disprove coward you need to prove bravery or at least why they are not cowards. Just giving excuses doesn't change the fact.
And my original post was about a specific set of people. Not your cousin or uncle or whoever you are annoyed about. I said this group of people SOUND like a bunch of cowards. Sounds like.

You’ve also said they’re “bitching” and “bending over to take it up the arse from the Russians.” The only point of your post was to insult them. It’s an incredibly poor contribution to this thread that reflects badly on you as a poster here.

 

[Brwned]

Objectively yeah. It fits the definition of coward “a person who is unwilling to do dangerous or unpleasant things by virtue of them being dangerous or unpleasant”

but being cowardly isn’t always a bad thing.

You left out a notable element of the definition which entirely undermines your last sentence.

noun

1. a person who is contemptibly lacking in the courage to do or endure dangerous or unpleasant things.
   
   adjective
2. LITERARY
   excessively afraid of danger or pain.

There’s nothing contemptible about being unwilling to fight in a war that’s likely to leave your country in exactly the same position it’s in now, while putting yourself at great risk. That isn’t excessive fear.

There’s a reason why the typical person who’s been drafted into a war wouldn’t use the word cowardly for those wanting to avoid it. Being fearful does not equal cowardice.

 

[Real Name]

We have Ukrainian neighbours in our building. A cuople with a small child and a dog. They're always like dont want to bother when I meet then in a hallway, kind of afraid even. Poor people, thousands kilometres from their homeland and living in a different country. I wonder if the the guy got the draft papers alread or whats the situation.
I guess the fact he's in Croatia and not on the front makes him a coward?

Also my daughter has an Ukrainian girl in her class, her family has been in Croatia from the first few months of the war. Bunch of cowards.

You are judging me from the comfort of your armchair.

Oh the irony..

 

[UpWithRivers]

It can also simply be to value your own life, health and wellbeing and your friends rather than throwing it away for a project that looks doomed to fail.

Sure. Not disagreeing. Might get a Good Decision Medal. I doubt you would be getting the Victoria cross

 

[africanspur]

Sure. Not disagreeing. Might get a Good Decision Medal. I doubt you would be getting the Victoria cross

Big difference between getting a victoria cross and 'bending over to take it up the ass from the Russians'.

You can see that right? And see that that kind of choice of words is incredibly distasteful, especially considering the circumstances?

 

[UpWithRivers]

You’ve also said they’re “bitching” and “bending over to take it up the arse from the Russians.” The only point of your post was to insult them. It’s an incredibly poor contribution to this thread that reflects badly on you as a poster here.

I didnt insult all Ukrainians in the world ever. I said this group of people sound like. SOUND like. And they were stating that the War should never been fought. They might be right but that to me seems like bending over and taking it from the Russians and I disagree with it.

I see nothing wrong with what I said. If a group of lads are in the pub complaining and bitching and I said stop 'Bitching and moaning. You sound like a bunch of women.' Does that mean all men in the world are a bunch of women? Does that mean I think all women are moaners.

People need to get a grip.

 

[UpWithRivers]

Big difference between getting a victoria cross and 'bending over to take it up the ass from the Russians'.

You can see that right? And see that that kind of choice of words is incredibly distasteful, especially considering the circumstances?

I said the view point that the War should not be fought is basically saying bend over and take it from the Russians. Its an analogy. That doesnt mean all Ukrainians are gay and they want to make love to Russians or whatever other nonsense you are putting in my mouth. It not disrespectful. It just a saying. Are we going to just bend over to City in the FA cup? Does that mean I now hate United?

Get over it.

 

[UpWithRivers]

We have Ukrainian neighbours in our building. A cuople with a small child and a dog. They're always like dont want to bother when I meet then in a hallway, kind of afraid even. Poor people, thousands kilometres from their homeland and living in a different country. I wonder if the the guy got the draft papers alread or whats the situation.
I guess the fact he's in Croatia and not on the front makes him a coward?

Also my daughter has an Ukrainian girl in her class, her family has been in Croatia from the first few months of the war. Bunch of cowards.



Oh the irony..

Again see above comments. I said this specific bunch of people SOUND like a bunch of cowards. That was not saying all Ukrainians and children are cowards does it?

Get a grip

PS and I was purposely being ironic. See previous comment

 

[Real Name]

Again see above comments. I said this specific bunch of people SOUND like a bunch of cowards. That was not saying all Ukrainians and children are cowards does it?

Get a grip

PS and I was purposely being ironic. See previous comment

You're burying yourself further.

 

[UpWithRivers]

You're burying yourself further.

Why? If I'm wrong I apologize. But I need to see what I did so I don't repeat it

 

[africanspur]

I said the view point that the War should not be fought is basically saying bend over and take it from the Russians. Its an analogy. That doesnt mean all Ukrainians are gay and they want to make love to Russians or whatever other nonsense you are putting in my mouth. It not disrespectful. It just a saying. Are we going to just bend over to City in the FA cup? Does that mean I now hate United?

Get over it.

What? I didn't put words in your mouth, I didn't say you said Ukrainians are gay or even that what you said is disrespectful (though it is). I literally just said what you said back to you.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Seem's like you would make a fantastic Pte in Donetsk after all, given the amount of digging you're doing.

 

[nimic]

I didnt insult all Ukrainians in the world ever. I said this group of people sound like. SOUND like. And they were stating that the War should never been fought. They might be right but that to me seems like bending over and taking it from the Russians and I disagree with it.

I see nothing wrong with what I said. If a group of lads are in the pub complaining and bitching and I said stop 'Bitching and moaning. You sound like a bunch of women.' Does that mean all men in the world are a bunch of women? Does that mean I think all women are moaners.

People need to get a grip.

Oh come off it. You deliberately chose to make your point in a very provocative way. Either you knew you were going to get the reactions and that's why you said it that way, or you didn't and you need to work on your social antenna and learn to read the room.

 

[DT12]

Why? If I'm wrong I apologize. But I need to see what I did so I don't repeat it

In my opinion, this is where you're going wrong:

All those Ukrainian men currently abroad - if someone came up to them and threatened the well-being of their children, wives, girlfriends, mothers, etc, they would fight to the death to protect them.

If someone said to them: break into London zoo at night and fight a lion, they wouldn't do it. Not because they're cowards, but because it's a dumb and literally senseless thing to do.

It's not that they don't want to fight. It's that they don't want to fight FOR THIS. It's not a question of cowardice. You're not a coward if I dare you to jump off a building and you decline.

This is why it is shameful that the Western politicians have cast this war as "a fight for all of Europe!", effectively guilt-tripping Ukrainians into fighting "democracy's existential war" on their behalf. I have contempt for Zelenskiy because instead of debasing himself by having to publicly beg for the ability to fight "Europe's war" he should say to the West "Fine, YOU fight it then, if you genuinely believe your own bullshit about how the global order is going to collapse if Ukraine loses".

That ought to help you see where you went wrong.

I also suggest you read this and ruminate on it a little before throwing accusations of cowardice around at those who seek to avoid a WW1-level of carnage. The final stanza is effectively addressed to you.

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46560/dulce-et-decorum-est

 

[Gehrman]

Not being willing to throw yourself and your children into the meatgrinder isnt cowardice. Its basic intelligence and value of human life. Ive met so many veterans including my older half older brother who fought in Iraq and cant make sense of what it was all far. Even if they didnt die or have their limbs blown off many of their comrades did. With Ukraine its been WW1 levels of war of attrition and it does not seem that Russia can be pushed back to the borders pre invasion bar a genuine Nato intervention which very obviously isnt going to happen.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Not being willing to throw yourself and your children into the meatgrinder isnt cowardice. Its basic intelligence and value of human life. Ive met some many veterans including my older half older brother who fought in Iraq and cant make sense of what it was all far. Even if they didnt die or have their limbs blown off many of their comrades did. With Ukraine its been WW1 levels of war of attrition and it does not seem that Russia can be pushed back to the borders pre invasion bar a genuine Nato intervention which very obviously isnt going to happen.

I never saw any combat action in the middle east and those tours fecked me up good and proper. It isn't the fighting that gets you.

It's when you have stories of how an Afghan soldier turned rank and blasted his own compatriots and you're in a room with them as they all smile and nod at you as you speak.
It's the constant anxiety you have, the outrageously elevated levels of stress that you cannot bring down - that you can't relax no matter where you are even when you are surrounded by people you trust.

The moment you come home you just don't know how to be normal again. You sit on your couch in front of the Tele with nothing around you that is dangerous and you have no idea how to behave.

It's the constant fear.

 

[Mainoonited]

It's shocking how a handful of people sitting behind a computer screen want Ukranians to fight a war many of them no longer want to fight. Territory is not more important than human life. At some point you have to know when it should stop. The Global West should be working with China to get Russia and Ukraine to end the war.

 

[Gehrman]

I never saw any combat action in the middle east and those tours fecked me up good and proper. It isn't the fighting that gets you.

It's when you have stories of how an Afghan soldier turned rank and blasted his own compatriots and you're in a room with them as they all smile and nod at you as you speak.
It's the constant anxiety you have, the outrageously elevated levels of stress that you cannot bring down - that you can't relax no matter where you are even when you are surrounded by people you trust.

The moment you come home you just don't know how to be normal again. You sit on your couch in front of the Tele with nothing around you that is dangerous and you have no idea how to behave.

It's the constant fear.

Its not just that. Its the level of evil that that the enemy/foe/whatever is willing to stoop to. Ive recently befriended a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan. He has PTSD. He said that the most disturbing thing he experienced was a baby wagon with a baby in it. On further inspection he saw the babies torso had been carved out and fitted with a bomb. And then he ran and screamed "Its a bomb!" before it went off. Further more I know another veteran from Kosovo who disarmed mines and bombs and told how often it was hidden it childrens toys.

 

[Wibble]

Lots of flexing about armchair ownership in this thread

 

[Gehrman]

Lots of flexing about armchair ownership in this thread

Many great men started wars from their armchairs. From Emperors, to Kings, to Presidents, Prime Ministers and online wars on Football forums.

 

[the hea]

It's shocking how a handful of people sitting behind a computer screen want Ukranians to fight a war many of them no longer want to fight. Territory is not more important than human life. At some point you have to know when it should stop. The Global West should be working with China to get Russia and Ukraine to end the war.

Even more shocking how a handful of people sitting behind a computer screen has decided that the Ukrainians no longer wants to fight for their country and their freedome.

 

[VorZakone]

Even more shocking how a handful of people sitting behind a computer screen has decided that the Ukrainians no longer wants to fight for their country and their freedome.

Huh? No one decided this. It's just that there are Ukrainians who don't want to fight and some anecdotal stories were shared of conversations with Ukrainian refugees.

And it's not a new thing. In all wars you'll have people who don't want to fight. It doesn't necessarily diminish the cause. There are still hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian personnel in combat or non-combat roles in the war. The worry is what happens when there aren't enough replacements and mobilization is a highly sensitive topic within Ukraine too.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[the hea]

Huh? No one decided this. It's just that there are Ukrainians who don't want to fight and some anecdotal stories were shared of conversations with Ukrainian refugees.

And it's not a new thing. In all wars you'll have people who don't want to fight. It doesn't necessarily diminish the cause. There are still hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian personnel in combat or non-combat roles in the war. The worry is what happens when there aren't enough replacements and mobilization is a highly sensitive topic within Ukraine too.

If people don't want to fight, it's their choice but just because some people decides to run away doesn't mean that the rest of the people should be forced into some shitty peace deal they have no desire for like the guy I quoted was insinuating.